*Weather note:
The Saturday games are clean of weather concerns, but Sunday is a different story (as of this writing, Saturday morning). A heavy rain front is headed from the south Saturday upwards into the mid-south and northeast.
ATL-CAR is a 90% chance of rain all game.
CHI-CLE is a 70%+ chance of rain all game.
DAL-BUF is an 80-90%+ chance of rain all game.
PHI-SEA is a 70%+ chance of rain all game.
MIN-CIN
MIN has become a top 10 defense, and it’s balanced – a top 5 range run defense and top 10 range pass defense. Seven of their last 8 opponents held to 21 points or fewer in a game and mostly in the mid-teens. Their problem this game is Nick Mullens...they are going to try to game manage + defense their way to victory. Ty Chandler should get good touches and might have a shock game behind one big run and nice volume otherwise.
CIN...improving run defense but sagging pass defense – which makes for a good/safe matchup vs. Nick Mullens. The offense has been good under Jake Browning, but they’ve played shaky defenses in Browning’s ‘good’ starts recently – but this week is his toughest test that he may flop with it...or do OK via his favorite pass = the dump off screen game to the RBs. You’ll see Joe Mixon OVER receiving props as a play in the handicapping update today/pre-games SAT.
I’m with CIN -3.0, but as a pick not a bet.
Ja’Marr Chase has to FF start, but it’s a tough setup here with Browning + Vikings D + Byron Murphy on him, likely.
Mixon might not be able to run, but he could thrive in the passing game.
Justin Jefferson + Mullens/Hall? Who knows? You have to FF start JJ in most cases no matter what.
Ty Chandler is the make-or-break player, to me, in this game.
PIT-IND
This is a Blazing Five pick for me...IND and lay the -1.5 points. I’m going against Mullens in the 1pmET game. I will happily go against Trubisky/Rudolph here in the afternoonET.
The Steelers have had the life sucked out of them with their offensive woes and they know they have little chance behind Trubisky/Rudolph...nor do the WRs/TEs for PIT for FF.
The Colts are a decent team and should take advantage of the Steelers issues at home. Zack Moss gets another clear (of JT) start, but he hasn’t looked good lately AND the Steelers run defense was really good last week against Ezekiel Elliott...they couldn’t stop Zeke in the dump passing game, but they did stop his running most of the game...but the Steelers offense wore down late.
Joey Porter might give Michael Pittman some fits and let Josh Downs rise back up here...and we might see another deep ball hit to Alex Pierce.
The Indy defense has been OK this season, but really good for FF...no reason they won’t get over on Trubisky/Rudolph.
Can’t trust Pickens-Diontae, but if I had to pick one it would be Diontae...with Trubisky. If Rudolph comes in, then Pickett has a shot with Rudolph floating prayers out to him.
I think the make-or-break player here is Josh Downs...he either continues his spiral of weak results or springs back up to where he was going a month+ ago, pre-injury issues.
DEN-DET
The Denver defense is very susceptible to the run...and that will be the key to this game is – Detroit running it 40+ times and Montgomery-Gibbs being RB1s both this week, potentially, to get the Lions over the Broncos.
The Lions defense is falling apart in every way...their former top run defense is getting gashed 4-5-6-7 game in a row now, pretty much. Denver has a nice matchup here, but I’m not sure the sluggish Broncos defense can take advantage of it.
I have a feeling this will be a run heavy, safe passing attack from both teams...the clock will run...low volume of plays...and edge to the Lions for having the better run attack.
I trust Courtland Sutton to get a TD every week...and here too.
I think this will be a lower output game overall.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a make-or-break player...two bad games (for him) in output in-a-row, does he snap back to his norm, or does he lay a third egg in-a-row? I’m inclined to trust ARSB...what other choice do you have?
I think Detroit wins and covers the -5.0 because they are able to run game over Denver and control the situation all game and Russell Wilson just isn’t ‘that guy’ anymore to strike fear/take advantage of the Lions defense.
Prop betting ideas will post in the handicapping notes…will post pre1pmET kick/a little bit after this post SAT. amET.
Overall Week 15 projections update will post around NoonET +/-.
Don't have any of these SAT guys in FLEX if you can help it...MNF or SNF later game guys in the flex this crazy FF playoff weekend.
