Game overview:
Well, we did get the debut of Bijan Robinson finally…and the debut of Atlanta’s 1st-team for one LONG drive…the perfect Falcons drive, almost -- a 15 play, 78 yards, 9:51 drive…but a drive that ended in a 3rd & goal interception near the goal line. The LONG drive came against many of the Bengals 1st-team defense playing. It was a solid drive that happened in spite of three Falcons penalties on top of everything else (like 1-2 near picks).
It’s hard to get a read on the Bengals offense, and therefore hard to get a read on the Falcons defense, from this game because Joe Burrow is M.I.A. and the Bengals have chosen to go with a ‘no viable Plan B’ QB plan for 2023…it’s a bold strategy (Cotton), let’s see if it pays off for them. It didn’t play out well here between Trevor Sieman at the helm and then even worse…Jake Browning. https://youtu.be/9HVejEB5uVk
We do have some player scouting notes to go through, including the much anticipated Bijan debut…so, we’ll start there.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- OK, the Bijan Robinson (4-20-0, 1-6-0/1) report…
It was a beautiful first touch/run in this game for Bijan. Very fast to the hole and made a very slippery/slick dodge away from a tackler or two reaching the linebacker level and he gained 12 yards. He then had three carries for 8 yards on the rest of the drive plus a solid catch for 6 yards. One drive, and he was gone.
From his first run, you can tell he has the NFL speed…and some open field agility with that nice open field dodge move. Bijan looks sleek and muscular, less bulky than I thought he was last year for Texas. He’s gonna be fine. My rub with him is -- he’s fine/good, but he’s valued like a god. I want to sell the disparity in price if I can leverage it to the moon.
Sure, his first run here looked great. They likely showed it on NFL Network and ESPN 4,000+ times an hour last night. They did not show the other three runs that were a little more standard fare.
Just to nitpick, because that’s my job…
His first run of the game was with Cincy in a very basic 4-3 defense. Linebackers back in a neutral position…not overly playing the run. The D-Line was spread out pretty good. When Bijan got the ball, he had room to get right up to speed, and was untouched for a bit thanks to the given space and then good cutting on his part, so he was able to cleanly accelerate and get to the 2nd-level. It was great. Best run I can recall him having against ‘real’ competition/not against Kansas or lower-level Big 12 defense. I’ll love this version of Bijan…and it definitely caught my attention as a minor ‘wow’.
The issue being what Bijan does when there is not a clean hole he track & field sprint through. When things/defenders are in his way, he tends to come to a near or complete stop and tries to find a way to get away…and when he slows down/stops, he doesn’t get back up to speed quickly and he’s gang tackled quickly. Other RBs have the ability to stop/start or hesitate with grace and punch an accelerator (Rachaad White, for an example). Some RBs will never stop moving and just barrel their way through traffic and will take what’s there and bully for +1-2 yards more (his teammate Roschon Johnson plays that style, Chris Rodriquez has a more savvy bully ability). Bijan tends to try and escape traffic, he’s not a bully runner by nature, and that can be an issue -- that’s what hurts David Montgomery, who looked like a similar Houdini runner in his rookie preseason.
There’s a place in the world for Bijan’s style/gifts. David Montgomery is a solid NFL RB, but he ultimately wasn’t the guy whose preseason fleet feet pushed him to become the #1 rookie RB taken in redrafts (not the DRD) his rookie season -- flying up draft boards late August/early Sept. his rookie year (the draft with Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders) as the obvious #1 for the Bears. Bijan is better than Montgomery…but there are some similarities.
What Bijan has going for him is: He is fast and shifty with good size. And the Falcons have a great O-Line and run scheme that can allow him to get going with a burst and if he has a hole, he’s going to get gash yards. He will run for 1,000+ yards if he plays 15+ games.
What Bijan has pressuring him: I could say much of the same things about Kendre Miller…quick, shifty…but I think Kendre has a better sense as a runner. Even worse, NFL defenses are going to stack Atlanta/Bijan and he’s going to encounter a lot of traffic that he’ll stop his feet for…and that’s usually ‘is the death of him’/makes him just a regular old ‘good’ RB…not an A+++ one.
But I liked what I saw of his gift in this brief glimpse. It will work in the NFL. He’s gonna be fine. He’s gonna be an RB1 on volume. But will he be amazing/generational? I don’t think so. David Johnson is probably the greatest RB prospect I’ve ever seen, and he destroyed the league from day one. When NFL defenses figured that out, they stacked Arizona to run and the Cardinals had no other offense to turn to…so DJ, as gifted as he was, had 9-11 defenders keying on him as the years wore on and he got put in a box and his outputs declined. Bijan is not DJ…but he is going to face the 9-11-man boxes from Week 1 on. It’s asking a lot of him (or anyone) to dominate it right away with such resistance against him. But he’s gonna be fine. He’s a great young man. He’s gonna work. I just don’t think he’s generational/can live up to the unfair hype. Hopefully, for him, he does.
Where Bijan could be a bigger star is in the passing game…get him out in space and let him get away from congestion, let him get going full speed. But, again, where Bijan goes…so goes a crowd. But not in this game, Bijan was wide open for easy TDs in the red zone on at least two occasions, but Desmond Ridder is not reading/running a real slick passing game -- he’s a robot that is locked on one thing most drop backs. He didn’t even see/look at Bijan in his WIDE-OPEN potential TD moments. Nor did he look for Pitts either.
This Bengals defense played Bijan, and the Falcons run game, very neutral. When Week 1 of the regular season hits…it will be a different story for Bijan. Unfairly so, but the media did this to him. Over time, he may adapt or the story/surroundings change, and he can just be a regular ‘ol good/good+ NFL RB that entire defenses aren’t planning against.
I'm not anti-Bijan as much as I am anti-his extreme valuation for FF. He's gonna be an RB1, but the packages of things you can get for him in Dynasty can be stunning.
We also learned from this game that it is pronounced: BISH-ON more than, what many say (including me), BEE-JOHN.
Tyler Allgeier (1-0-0) started for a few plays on the Falcons 1st-team one series, then rotated in-out a bit…and he looked like a grandma speed compared to Bijan. But Allgeier is not a speed merchant, he’s a professional runner who doesn’t stop his feet in traffic and he just chops away at the defense/goes right into traffic -- it isn’t as sexy, but it is effective -- and we know the whole defense doesn’t collude to try and stop him, because the media doesn’t trumpet up Tyler like Bijan…it’s just a fact that both will have to deal with. Just like Najee used to get the 9-11-man box, then Jaylen Warren would come in and run like lightning through the same defense…but it wasn’t the same defense, it wasn’t focused on ‘stopping’ Jaylen like it was Najee.
-- Much less exciting was the Bengals RB situation…
There’s a battle for the #2 spot behind Joe Mixon happening.
Chris Evans (7-15-0, 2-20-0/2) feels like he has the lead over Chase Brown (9-18-1, 1-0-0/2) right now…and maybe does for 2023 because of experience.
Just the way Evans ran and caught the ball, and the way he was rotated in the game…it feels like Evans is in the lead. Brown is still rookie-tentative. Once Brown sheds some of the rookie-ness, then he’ll pull even with and probably surpass Evans (and Treyveon Williams). But Chris Evans is no slouch…he’s talented.
-- There’s only two WRs of interest on the Bengals who worked this game…
For the second game in-a-row, rookie WR Andrei Iosivas (5-44-0/10) was the go-to guy for both QBs…and rookie Charlie Jones (4-36-0/6) was not.
I don’t know if it’s easier for the bad Cincy QBs to just throw towards the taller Iosivas or if they just instinctively know it’s their best hope of a completion because he’s that good, but the Cincy backup QBs treat Iosivas like he is their alpha #1…and Charlie Jones barely registers on their radar. It’s been that way for two games now.
Iosivas does look better of the two on tape…and I thought it would be the other way around before the preseason began. But they play different styles, so until we see Burrow working with them, it’s hard to call.
-- Desmond Ridder’s (7-9 for 80 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 1-7-0) ‘good’ and ‘bad’ QB play was on display here…
GOOD = Ridder is the ultimate game manager. He runs the short/sweet/predetermined throw passing game pretty well. The coach has to love him for that. He plays to the playbook. He looked confident in his game managing here…not jittery like Bryce Young game managing today.
BAD = When it’s a known passing situation and Ridder has to be in the pocket making decisions…he’s not as good. He flirted with 1-2 picks prior to his actual pick near the goal line of the one drive the 1st-team played.
GOOD = Ridder can run…he’s like a thinner, but not too thin, Daniel Jones. His running is a little ‘plus’ for FF.
BAD = When his first read is taken away, he tends to run…and that urge had him miss (didn’t see) wide-open guys all over in this game…including Bijan wide-open for easy TD passes twice, and Ridder never even looked his way.
Ridder is a back-end QB2 a la Marcus Mariota 2022…a QB who flirted with QB1 scoring per game for the 1st-half of the season in this offense because of his running. A low volume passing game but the QBs can run for some numbers.
The Bengals should’ve bought Taylor Heinicke (13-21 for 162 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) to be Burrow’s insurance policy, but they didn’t. The Falcons have the luxury of no real fall off if they have to go with Heinicke for any reason. He’s a sound, probably better QB than Ridder right now -- but Ridder plays under wraps more, and that’s what Art Smith wants.
-- The ‘Big Two’ receivers for Atlanta got in on some targets in the 1st-series, and I think the target count here is absolutely telling of what’s to come in 2023…
Drake London (2-33-0/3) got 3 targets…Kyle Pitts (1-9-0/1) got one. It was a long drive for Atlanta and about a half-a-game’s worth of throws from Ridder, all in one LONG drive…9 throws.
Nine Ridder throws and 33% of them went to London…a random one went to Pitts.
Ridder was looking for and forcing it to London, like he did last season. Pitts got a cute little 5-yard leak off the line and a sit down-ish route and toss went his way…and he went forward for a couple yards. What London has been in this offense (one year) and what Pitts has been for two years is exactly how it played out in this one LONG series/drive. London matters…Pitts really doesn’t.
-- IDP notes…
CIN SAF Tycen Anderson (5 tackles) had another solid showing here. One of my favorite deep sleeper defenders of the future. For 2023? Not so much, unless an injury propels him into the lineup.
ATL LB, great free agent signing, Kaden Elliss (4 tackles) played and looked terrific an outside linebacker doing a lot of different things…playing the run, out in coverage, rushing the backfield. What a great addition by ATL.
ATL rookie slot CB Clark Phillips (3 tackles) got hurt a few days or so back, and I thought it was more a worrisome injury, but he played here and looked fine.
