Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
-- We lost the lone remaining undefeated team in this stretch -- KC falls to (8-1), but still has the best record in the league. Philadelphia is also (8-1). Third best record in the league…Miami (7-2).
-- We also lost our two winless teams…Arizona got a win to 'rise' to (1-8), which is the lone worst record in the league.
-- Surprising developments in the AFC South… Tennessee (4-4) has taken first place. Followed by a surprising Indianapolis (4-5) rise. The Jaguars have sunk to 3rd-place (3-5).
-- The Packers (4-4) have tied Detroit (4-4) for 1st-place in the NFC North. Minnesota (4-5) and Chicago (4-5) are only a half game behind them.
-- The Saints (5-4) have caught the Falcons (5-4) to tie the NFC South lead.
-- The Jets (3-5) continue to sit in last place in the AFC East.
-- Dallas (4-4) is 3.5 games behind Philly at the halfway point.
AFC East W L PCT
MIA … 7 - 2 = 0.778
BUF … 6 - 3 = 0.667
NE …. 5 - 4 = 0.556
NYJ … 3 - 5 = 0.375
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AFC North W L PCT
CIN … 6 - 2 = 0.750
CLE … 5 - 3 = 0.625
PIT … 5 - 3 = 0.625
BAL … 5 - 4 = 0.556
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AFC South W L PCT
TEN … 4 - 4 = 0.500
IND … 4 - 5 = 0.444
JAX … 3 - 5 = 0.375
HOU … 2 - 6 = 0.250
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AFC West W L PCT
KC …. 8 - 1 = 0.889
LAC … 4 - 4 = 0.500
LV … 3 - 6 = 0.333
DEN … 2 - 6 = 0.250
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NFC East W L PCT
PHI … 8 - 1 = 0.889
NYG … 6 - 3 = 0.667
DAL … 4 - 4 = 0.500
WAS … 3 - 6 = 0.333
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NFC North W L PCT
GB … 4 - 4 = 0.500
DET … 4 - 4 = 0.500
MIN …. 4 - 5 = 0.444
CHI … 4 - 5 = 0.444
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NFC South W L PCT
NO …. 5 - 4 = 0.556
ATL … 5 - 4 = 0.556
TB …. 3 - 5 = 0.375
CAR … 2 - 6 = 0.250
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NFC West W L PCT
SF … 5 - 3 = 0.625
SEA …. 4 - 4 = 0.500
LAR … 2 - 7 = 0.222
ARI … 1 - 8 = 0.111
