Add Intro: Now, more featuring my (RC) news and notes from the day's/week's discussions and/or studies...
Old Intro: Whenever I come across any football news reports/articles in my research or sent to me by FFMers that I think are interesting or back up/contradict/debate things I've discussed, I'd like to share them for extra/interesting reading material...and have them put into the archives so if you you are researching things about a player or situation, you can search it on the FFM site and it's part of the arsenal for your research.
It will be mostly reports on players/situations not as discussed nationally (but could be from national/big media sites), but are (hopefully) relevant to Dynasty/Fantasy/Handicapping purposes as we go...with the occasional item that I just thought was interesting in general about anything football related.
Here's what I have for this day (noting the players/situation discussed for future archive search purposes with a link to the article):
FFM News: Football News/Reports of Interest (7/6/23)
-- Dalvin Cook to the Jets?
Well, I guess the rumor mill/click bait of Dalvin Cook being on the brink of signing with Miami is now over. We need new rumors/click bait from the mainstream in slow news July! For the people that just knew Cook was signing with Miami, now comes their latest thing to glom onto -- Cook to sign with the Jets.
The story goes like this -- the Jets are doing serious homework on Cook and could be ready to make a play, and if so…that must mean Breece Hall is not ready to return on time in 2023…and the Jets love Cook.
Could Cook sign with the Jets? Possibly. And I'll make that case why it could happen at the end, but first to my first reaction to these Roto-blurbs and NFL news teases about Cook and the Jets.
So, I am supposed to believe that NOW the Jets are doing their 'homework' on Cook? How hard is that homework? And NOW they are doing it? Dalvin Cook has been available to anyone that wanted him for nothing for months…there were no takers. Don't you think the Jets did their 'homework' on this already…months ago? But, OK, NOW they are doing 'homework'…not after he got cut several weeks ago…not after he had a bunch of talk about wanting to go to Miami the past few weeks…it's NOW they are doing 'homework'.
If I found out my GM was just doing homework NOW/recently on Dalvin Cook…I'd fire him. But of course, they didn't do 'homework' on him just NOW. They already knew their stance. And having done said homework, the Jets have not made an offer to Cook for the first five weeks of his free agency…and were not panicked into making an offer when the Dolphins were supposedly on his trail.
And the Breece Hall angle of this -- NOW the Jets are worried about Breece for 2023? Only NOW they're scared? If you take the averages of recovery on Hall's type of injury/surgery, Breece will be ready right around September 1st. Maybe in August if things go well…maybe by Week 3-4, worse case, he's totally up to speed. But NOW there's such a Jets fear about Breece not ready by Week 1, but likely ready soon after…that they NOW have to go give a big contract to Dalvin Cook (which is what he is aiming for) to cover Weeks 1-2 and maybe 3? The Jets can't get by for a few weeks, if needed, with Zon Knight, Michael Carter, and Israel Abanikanda? The only answer for the Jets is a running back that no one seems to want (Cook), for the price, and a running back the entire league has questions on of whether he's got any juice left or not…so much so the Vikings took a financial hit to get rid of him off their team -- they put him out on the curb like my local trash bin collection. BUT the Jets are SOOOO worried about Weeks 1-2 and maybe 3 on Breece, that NOW they are doing 'homework' on Cook.
Makes a lot of sense *insert eyeroll here*.
Now, if the Jets secretly know that Breece's rehab is going bad, and they've just been lying to us all offseason about it, then I could see them considering Cook. And GM Aaron Rodgers has faced Cook for years, so he probably remembers all the good/dominant moments of Dalvin, so sure…I could see Rodgers would be fine/happy with more 'weapons' -- but that doesn't mean management agrees or sees it as a need, but if the Breece news is secretly bad…I would say a desperate Jets GM and HC may make a desperate Dalvin deal…they'd have to…they almost have no choice.
But for a lesser price, the Jets could look at Kareem Hunt…or down lower to Elliott/Fournette. And they could've already made deals with them if the Jets were SO worried about Breece.
None of this reporting really makes any sense -- unless the Jets are lying about Breece all along…and Breece is lying about his own return timeline.
-- Over/Under win total bets
After going through the computer simulated/Faux seasons of the NFL teams/2023 schedule, and seeing Xavier's and Chris's seasons, I want to report out on three betting thoughts I've been having…
1) I was early on the Saints 'under' back from when it was first announced, and I'm still 'under' on them…but that easy schedule overall and that weak division…I'm not loving it like I did a few months ago.
I have some shares of the Saints 'under' 9.5 wins.
My computer sim came up at (spoiler) 8 wins. Chris and Xavier at 9 wins. All of us projecting 'unders' but not as strong as I like. I could let my existing Saints 'under' bets ride, but I am considering some money management and taking a tiny bit, not a lot, of the Saints 'over' 9.5 on FD at +120…just to reduce my Saints 'under' exposure.
2) I am still hot on Carolina's under. A bet against the machine that thinks Bryce Young is so good he'll make the Panthers a playoff contender. No-no.
I'm adding to my bets of 'under' 7.5 wins…DK has the under at +100.
Xavier had CAR projected at 5 wins, Chris at 6…and (spoiler) FFM ended at 5 wins.
3) I really want to bet the Cardinals 'under', but the line is getting away from where I want it since DeAndre Hopkins was ditched. The line is now 4.5 wins. I'd still take the 'under', but that's pretty darn low of a win total to bet against. I am looking at DK alt. line at 6.5 wins 'under' at -500, but that's a steep bet…but is almost SURE money. Still…too steep.
The reason I am looking at the Cardinals is -- I really think they are tanking. I believe 2023 is a year that teams will tank, either before the season or in-season if they are in the #1 pick running -- because an NFL team's season tickets, jersey sales, and everything else will change dramatically when that team uses the #1 overall pick on QB Caleb Williams, USC…and all the hype he's going to get. He will be even more hyped than Trevor Lawrence.
Arizona is taking the measures needed to ensure the #1 pick (and they have Houston's #1 too). I think they are full steam ahead on…
a) trying to get to #1 to draft Williams.
b) then trading Kyler Murray in-season 2023 or trading/ditching him offseason 2024.
If you're gonna tank -- you have to really commit to it/go for it and not mess around. They have to wind up with 3 or fewer wins, you'd think. And they are well on their way.
If I were the Cardinals owner or GM, I would absolutely tank to rid myself of Kyler and bring in a new era QB. The GM and HC are dead soon if they do not tank, ditch Kyler, and bring in a stud rookie QB.
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-- DEVY (Any prospects for me to consider?)
I am going through a list of top-rated prospects for the 2024 NFL Draft for our annual summer series taking a scouting preview on Devy prospects.
I am using the consensus rankings in the mainstream as my guide, but I am also looking for any hidden sleepers to consider. Consensus ranks…I have, we all have. But hidden sleepers -- if you are a college football aficionado and/or just really focused in on one/your team and you have a player you think I should look at (freshman or senior and anything in-between), shoot me a note of the player and I'll take a quick look and see if think they should hop onto my working list.
AND they don't have to be 2024 Draft eligible...could be a hot sophomore or incoming freshman sensation...I'll take a peak at any player and see if they can grab me within 5 minutes to get on the list.
The Devy scouting preview series begins July 1st and runs all month.
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