2022-23 Super Bowl: A Fantasy and Handicapping Preview/Predictions/Props
Taking a look at each of the 2022-23 Super Bowl from a game preview and strategy perspective, and a straight up win/loss projection plus an ATS perspective, and then looking at some DFS and prop betting options.
Our Computer picks and our group expert picks will be listed in this report as well.
Game Plan/Flow Projection: Kansas City v. Philadelphia (-1.5)
I'm going to break down how I believe each team could/should/will plan against each other and which players might benefit from that plan. However, I think it's appropriate to first look at how we got here, to set the table for why I believe Philly is a -1.5 point favorite.
Before I do that, I'll begin with an obvious statement: Both of these teams are obviously really good. Either can win the game. There is no mismatch here. However, I think we have some things to look at to consider if the point spread is set properly and if this is creating a betting opportunity.
The Eagles come into this game after crushing the Giants and then the 49ers in the playoffs. The taste in the public's mouth is 'great' on the Eagles. Philly seems unstoppable.
That heavy pro-Philly sentiment is kinda comical, because it was only 3-4 weeks ago that the chicest thing to do in football analysis was to predict the #1 seed in the NFC would not make it to the Super Bowl…that the 49ers were on a roll…and Dallas was sneaky good, and either of those teams could take down an Eagles team that semi-limped into the playoffs (remember the struggle vs. Davis Webb Week 18?). Now, a few weeks later…the Eagles are the Super Bowl favorite.
The Chiefs come into this game in a completely opposite public perception -- close call wins over Jacksonville, with Mahomes hurt…then a game they should've lost to Cincy. Philly comes into this game with two blowouts while KC comes in kinda skating by barely. Thus, Philly is a listed favorite.
However, Philly is getting credit for whacking SF…with Christian McCaffrey, among others at QB. The public should erase the SF game from the memory banks because it was not even a real game due to the Brock Purdy injury. Philly should get some credit for smacking NYG 1st-round, but NYG is arguably the worst opponent strength comparative to KC's matchups with Jacksonville and no comparison to Cincy.
I am seeing this game shaping up in a similar way the dopey public often gets burned in college football analysis/betting…
Two good colleges/teams face each other midseason (example). One 'good' team has played nothing but garbage teams all season-to-date and is undefeated with big margin wins and is rising up the rankings because of this 'candy for dinner' mentality by the public/top 25 voters who look at just the record and scores with little context considered. The other 'good' team comes into the game week having lost a game or two so far in season and had a close call or two in recent weeks…turbulence due, in part, to a rougher schedule. The team blowing out cupcakes all season is the public sentiment favorite…but then they go and get whacked by the less 'sexy' team because that underdog sentiment team had been challenged more in preparation to their meeting and couldn't put up 'sexy' metrics on output and scoring, etc., all season compared to the team blowing out bad teams. The cupcake schedule coasters didn't have to grind as much, and they were not as sharp going into the contest.
I am way more impressed with KC grinding the 3-point win over the best team in football (but was missing half+ of their O-Line) in their last visual to the public than I am either of the Eagles' playoff wins. KC has been through the grind this playoff season and has been through the playoff grind for years. Philly is really good, but kinda skated into the Super Bowl with a fortuitous playoff schedule/timing (as SF loses two QBs in-game) and have yet to face an elite QB the entire season.
If you consider the elite QBs in the NFL 2022-23 to be: Mahomes-Allen-Burrow-Herbert, then consider that Philly has not faced any of them in 2022. They faced Mahomes and Herbert in 2021 and lost…as an FYI. On the other hand, the Chiefs have faced that elite group of QBs five times this year…and they, technically, face one of them everyday in practice.
Last five QBs faced for each team (including playoffs)…
KC: Geno (W), Russ (W), Stidham (W), Trevor (W), Burrow (W)
PHI: Dak (L), Dalton (L), Webb (W), Dan Jones (W), Purdy can't throw/Josh Johnson/CMC (W)
And when the Eagles have faced anything close to a top QB this season, those opposing QBs have mostly done pretty/very well against the Eagles. And they haven't faced anything close to Mahomes in 2022-23.
Week 1 Jared Goff scores 35 points on Philly.
Week 12 Aaron Rodgers + Jordan Love score 40 on Philly
Struggling Dak scored 40 on Philly Week 16
Week's 8-18, the QBs faced by PHI: Pickett, Mills, Heinicke, Ryan, Rodgers/Love, Tannehill/Willis, Dan Jones, Fields, Dak, Dalton, Webb
For all these reasons, I like KC in this game. It's not screaming at me…but it's starting to clear its throat and trying to get my attention more.
Game Planning:
I think the Chiefs will not have to change much of their offensive plan to attack Philly's defense. Again, the Eagles have not faced a Mahomes-level QB and when they just face good+ QBs (Dak, Rodgers, Goff, etc.) those QBs tend to do OK/fine…they score points.
KC will want to avoid the Eagles' outside corners, but KC has avoided that most of the season anyway…they don't have good WRs on the outside as it is. Their outside WRs tend to be decoys (especially MVS) for the shorter, quick hitter game with Kelce and the RBs, etc.
KC's defense is loaded with young talent…that is starting to come into its own. They have held four of their last 5 opponents to 20 points or fewer…and they have faced mostly good or great (Burrow) QBs in that stretch (while Philly has faced Davis Webb, Daniel Jones, and toast-arm Purdy or Christian McCaffrey at QB).
If KC gets up on Philly and makes the Eagles chase…that's not the Eagles 'game'. But if Philly gets up early on KC, the Chiefs won't even blink/panic at that.
OK, how would Philly win this game?
They are going to have to run the ball, utilize the RBs in the passing game…try and control the clock. To me, for Philly to win it's gonna be Jalen Hurts doing something magical on the ground to totally disrupt the defensive plan/the defense in general. The Chiefs have one of the better run defenses in the NFL…so, it's not going to be a 'given' they can run all over KC.
On defense, they will have to concoct a plan to stop/halt Travis Kelce…but no one ever seems to, no matter their game plan. If the Eagles think they can extra-concentrate on Kelce and let their outside corners handle the outside WRs one-on-one -- it sounds good but KC abuses that plan all the time. The KC WRs are window dressing going downfield. Philly will have to live with dinks and dunks/quick-fire passing against their defense…and then hope to tighten up in the red zone and hold KC to field goals. It's impossible to 'stop' KC's offense. You have to hope KC is having an off day, and/or you get a fluke turnover or two, and/or the refs help -- but the refs typically lean Peyton/Brady/Mahomes.
Props/Sleepers:
SLEEPERS…?
We've only got two teams of rosters to work with this week, so trying to find a 'sleeper' for a DFS lineup or prop bet is a little crazy. I mean, everyone in football analysis is going to discuss Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Kenneth Gainwell types.
My 'sleepers', for lack of a better word are two normal starters/players…
1) A contrarian play at TE.
Everyone knows Travis Kelce is great and gonna be highly targeted…but the Eagles defensive metrics against the TE have been pretty good. While the Chiefs defense has been average against TEs.
It's possible the Eagles will try and take advantage of that TE weakness and run a heavy amount of pass activity to Dallas Goedert, when everyone thinks they're gonna attack KC's young secondary with their great WRs. The problem with that line of thinking of going after KC's young CBs is -- that young group of CBs are pretty good, improving fast the past several weeks. Goedert could be a wrinkle KC didn't totally plan for as a primary weapon…because the Eagles don't usually go super-heavy with Goedert, but they have in some cases when the TE defense was known to be weak. The Eagles coaching staff is one of the best, if not the best, at exploiting their opponent's obvious weakness.
Any props of Goedert 'out'-doing anything of Kelce would have pretty good odds. But betting against Kelce is not-wise, so strictly for fun if great odds are out there…or choosing him as your DFS TE for a contrarian play.
KC is also weak allowing RB activity in the passing game…so Sanders-Gainwell could surprise with targets/catches.
2) The best pass game weapon down the stretch of the regular season for KC…Jerick McKinnon.
Their best pass game weapon has been McKinnon off and on down the stretch, but he has been minimized in the playoffs. If this gets into a shootout and KC doesn't want to test the very good Philly corners too much…a lot of west coast RB targets could be in order, which helps Pacheco and McKinnon in output.
McKinnon alt yardage props on FD are interesting from the 40 to 50 to 60+ yards options. The 60+ is (as of this writing) at +680 for a lottery ticket play. He hit the 60+ mark twice in his final five regular season games. He went for 50+ three times in those last 5 games.
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OTHER PROPS OF NOTE…
I already bet these last week (and odds/lines have likely changed since last week, as I leaked these concepts/moves to subscribers in my private betting notes all last week, and we tend change lines with this group betting):
-- Isiah Pacheco rush + rec yds alt prop on DK 75+ yards now at +165. I'm not afraid of CEH coming back to see any work…but that slight fear (last week) created some better odds/moneyline on Pacheco's alt rush+rec., and is still at decent odds to bet this week.
– PHI SAF C.J. Gardner-Johnson has an over/under 5.5 tackles (+110) prop on DK.
Before a Week 12 injury, he had logged 6 or more tackles in a game in four of his 6 prior games. Was out a few weeks, came back and got 7 tackles in his return game in the regular season.
But he's been under 6 tackles the last two games…but that was 5 tackles in the blowout vs. NYG, then a low 3 in the blowout of SF…we know the SF game had no downfield passing, so it shouldn't even register for his trends/be counted against him.
Considering the throws to Kelce coming, and all the passing otherwise…a Philly safety should get good tackle opps, no?
-- The Jalen Hurts OVER 48.5 rush yards (-114) FD, 49.5 DK is interesting as well.
When Hurts faces real opposing QBs, not all the lame ones he faced a lot this year…when he faces a good offense with good QBs, he tends to run the ball more…
Week 1 v. Goff (DET scored 35 pts) = 17-90-1 rushing
Week 2 v. Cousins = 11-57-2
Week 6 v. Kyler = 15-61-2
Week 12 v. Rodgers = 17-157-0
It's a weapon he seems to bring out more against better offensive opponents or games that get close and Philly needs a push.
Hurts rushing over 100+ yards, an alt rush prop on DK is +600, for fun/throwing away money.
Hurts 1st TD scorer is +700 on DK
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Our traditional game ATS pick format:
2022-23 Super Bowl/Playoffs NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS
I went (1-1) ATS for the Conference Finals week with a tough loss with Cincy. I'm now (9-3) ATS for the playoffs. My regular season heat has only gotten hotter into the playoffs.
All the juice I earned with the SF best bet over Dallas was given back with the Cincy loss to KC…other than that, it's been a decent run these playoffs ATS. One more game to go…I want it to finish over 75% for the playoffs.
Good luck to you in your picks and betting on the Super Bowl. Here's our group picks…
Conf. Title Playoffs results…
FFM All picks straight up: 1-1
FFM ATS: 1-1
FFM Best Bet: 0-1
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): XX
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-1
Chris ATS: 1-1
Ross ATS: 1-1
Andrew ATS: 1-1
Just taking all Underdogs blind ATS = 0-2
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2022 Regular Season and Playoffs YTD results…
All picks straight up: 191-88-2 (10-2 playoffs)
ATS: 162-104-5 (60.9%)…(9-3 playoffs)
Best Bet: 11-6 (2-1 playoffs)
Blazing Five (no TNF): 55-31-3 (64.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 21-13
Chris ATS: 153-113-5 (7-5 playoffs)
Ross ATS: 125-123-4 (4-8 playoffs)
Chris Best Bet: 11-6
Ross Best Bet: 9-8
Just taking all Underdogs blind ATS = 142-124-5 (6-4 playoffs)
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Super Bowl Group Official Picks….
KC v. PHI (-1.5) *Underdog outright upset*
The Computer says: KC by 2.2 (a 3.7 spread differential)
I think Philly might be in for a rude awakening here. They haven't played a team with such QB/offensive firepower this season. Andy Reid wins games off an extra game to prepare. KC has been here a few times recently…for this Philly staff, it's their first time. I think everything points to a KC win.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PHI
Ross Jacobs: KC
Andrew DFS: KC
