2022-23 Wild Card: 49ers 41, Seahawks 23 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
I vividly remember the 49ers winning this game by three scores…and once being up by 24 in this game, as Brock Purdy picked them apart. I remember all that clearly…but I vaguely remembered that Seattle led at the half, 17-16…and I was whining and crying about SF blowing all my -9.5 bets.
Why you have to pick San Francisco to roll right through the NFC was on display in this game -- Seattle did all they could to hang with the 49ers, but then SF just put the hammer down and dispatched them in a hurry in the 2nd-half. Now, 11 straight wins by the Niners…and nine of the 11 wins by 8 or more points. Seven of the 11 by double digits. You gotta stay with this team right now. How they are only favored by 3.5/4.0 over Dallas warrants a criminal investigation. Well, I hope they wait to do that after the game…let me cash all my SF -3.0 and -3.5 tickets first.
San Fran got out to a fast start, then Seattle hit a couple big plays to get back into it…which kinda woke SF up from thinking this would be a cakewalk and they hammered Seattle from there.
Seattle gets a gold star for their 2022-23 season. I think on my Computer Simulation/Season prediction 2.0, in June/July 2022, I had Seattle with 0 or 1 wins (I don't wanna go back to look it up to see how wrong I was). I plugged in Geno Smith to our system as a disaster and the premise overview that Seattle was tanking…and, now I look like a fool -- they go and make the playoffs with Geno as an MVP candidate at one point. I don't think I was alone predicting a Seattle nightmare season. My bad…kudos to Pete Carroll for a brilliant season.
I think the Seahawks will go for a repeat of 2022 in 2023…they'll sign Geno to a deal and be back fighting for a wild card again in 2023 season. I think the Seattle story was running out of juice/getting figured out in the 2nd-half, so I am skeptical of them for 2023…but I shouldn't talk after what they did this season vs. my prediction/projection of it.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Brock Purdy (18-30 for 332 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) isn't Offensive Rookie of the Year, then I don't know what the NFL media/voters are thinking. Actually, I probably do know…
I think that THEY do NOT want to give this award to Purdy because it highlights/exposes just how wrong THEY all were for the past year.
Purdy winning awards means…
1) All the scouts and experts did not see this coming pre-Draft or after the draft. The football scouting community (and thus the echo chamber media analysis of the draft) failed miserably to identify hidden talent, again. THEY don't want us to be reminded of that.
2) All the pundits who questioned and mocked Purdy after his first start, and second start, and third start, etc., are going to have to admit Purdy is playing great, top 10-15 NFL QB play right away…and is/was the best QB from the 2022 NFL Draft. THEY don't want to admit that or their Wizard of Oz curtain would be pulled back. They are so sold on their original narrative, so sold that a 7th-round rookie can't be this good that it is why the point spreads in SF games are so suppressed on every Purdy start.
Purdy is (7-0) in games so far this season, and (6-1) ATS. He keeps getting better every week. And all the talking heads are doing just now is making funny statements like 'maybe this Purdy kid isn't so bad'. They're still months…years behind on Purdy.
I saw Purdy's preseason work and was shocked and pushed him hot in preseason reports, but not nearly enough knowing what I know now and two months ago when this started. When I saw his NFL debut game Week 13, when Jimmy G. went down and out…I saw IT right away and knew from the preseason and to what and how he was doing already in his thrown in NFL debut that Purdy was better than Jimmy G.
It's OK to be wrong in football scouting. The key is to identify 'right' fast…faster than others if the case presents (like with Purdy, where no one cared right away). What's wrong with: Admit it/see the 'wrong' and then 'get it right'. The NFL media sticks with an initial scouting they heard from somewhere and 99%+ of the media and fans adopt said position to have safety in numbers protection on their 'analysis' and THEY won't change from it for a long time…years…ever.
Purdy is the best QB prospect from the last two drafts -- we all have to deal with that, process it, and learn from it. Getting onboard with Purdy early has been very profitable for FFM bettors the past two months.
-- Playoff time! So, SF goes back to Deebo Samuel (6-133-1/9) as their lead dog. Oh, don't overlook that Purdy has been wrecking the NFL without Deebo most of his run. Deebo was out hurt for a few weeks, was allowed the time to not rush back/heal up and is now fresh for the playoffs.
Another feather in Purdy's cap…he isn't predictably leaning on just one receiver to get him over. He's pushed Brandon Aiyuk (3-73-0/5) to nice numbers off-and-on, and he's given George Kittle (2-37-0/2) the best numbers of his career…but this game he went away from Kittle in favor of Deebo. Next game could be totally different.
The centerpiece of that is -- Purdy is the key, the path.
-- Geno Smith (25-35 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) splits…
First 9 games of 2022 season: (6-3) record, 1.67 TD passes/0.44 INTs per game
Last 9 games of 2022 season: (3-6) record, 1.88 TD passes/0.88 INTs per game
Smith played well all season…like a real QB…like a top 15 or so type QB. I cannot believe he was able to resurrect a dead career where he was a huge flop at all times…and then just jump in and gets into the MVP race at one point.
I will keep pounding this fact home, because we have to process and deal with it for FF going forward: It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL. It's a glorified 7-on-7 with highly trained 7-on-7 QBs in the modern era. You can't touch the QBs too hard…you can't touch receivers…it's never been a better time to play QB…and all these youngsters have more reps and more training academy time than the QBs from 2010 and prior ever did collectively for the past century. Teams coming back from 28+ point 1st-half deficits are becoming commonplace…because of this -- and it makes for great viewing and betting of/on the product! The NFL WANTS this. They're getting it.
Coaching plan (or lack thereof) and O-Line healthy/ability is becoming the differentiator on all these 'good' not elite QBs. We're entering an era where there are 2-3-4 elite QBs and 50+ (and growing) good/solid QBs available. 2023 is a possible bumper crop of incoming QBs to add to the pile as well. No NFL team should have a 'bad' QB on purpose and they should all have good backups. If they don't…you have a poorly run team.
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-- Seattle WR Cade Johnson (3-39-0/3) has gotten a nice run the past three games, with Marquise Goodwin hurt. He's a talented WR…we liked him from our scouting tape and Senior Bowl week plus the scouting model grades corresponded with that. He was a 'wow' performer (72 rec., 1,222 yds, 17 TDs in 2020) as an FCS WR out of South Dakota State. He can play…but it seemed like he was lost in the NFL shuffle -- but Seattle has stuck by him, and things are looking up.
Seattle has a ton of young talent at WR…rookie Dareke Young is super hopeful too, but until Tyler Lockett moves on…there's no real space for FF goodness from the #3/4 WR to move up to a bigger role in Seattle.
-- Another prop bet failure last week: Elijah Mitchell (9-2-0, 2-25-1/3). Basically, my wild card weekend was betting/winning every game ATS and giving back a chunk of it on failed prop bets on Mitchell, Dawson Knox, and Richie James.
This game flow went against me on Mitchell. SF didn't get out to a big lead and then run-run-run Mitchell all 2nd-half, as I had hoped/projected. When Mitchell did get his chance, he barely got his hands on the handoff when Seattle was in the backfield stopping the run. Seattle committed to stopping the run game, especially triggered when Mitchell entered, and Elijah was bottled up all game…but did make hay in the passing game, which was great for my run game props.
No issues with Mitchell…just Seattle saw it coming and stopped it.
-- Seattle's TEs vs. the vaunted SF TE defense…
Noah Fant (1-11-0/2)
Colby Parkinson (3-14-0/6)
Dalton Schultz is not likely to keep up his nice recent output run this week vs. SF.
And, Parkinson has become the favored TE target over Fant…shockingly…in recent weeks, since Will Dissly went out.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = CMC
14 = Mitchell
03 = Mason
45 = Parkinson
38 = Fant
57 = Metcalf
54 = Lockett
44 = Cade Johnson
13 - Dareke Young
