2022 Week 17: Patriots 23, Dolphins 21 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week's games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
Miami was scuffling a bit in this game without Tua, but they were beating the Patriots late into the 3rd-quarter. It seemed like Miami would get that much needed win and the Patriots would be bounced from the playoff scene -- then in a flash, everything changed. Teddy Bridgewater threw a pass that got picked off and returned for a TD, Teddy was also injured (not to return) on the play.
Skylar Thompson came in and couldn't really get the team going. Miami went flat. New England got up by two scores with 4+ minutes left. Miami scored late to close it to a 2-point deficit but couldn't get the onsides kick…and…ballgame. Things might have been different with Teddy for the full game…or with Tua the whole game, but alas that's only speculation.
Miami falls out of the playoff picture, just behind the Patriots. It's down to Miami MUST win and the Patriots MUST lose Week 18 to get Miami into the #7 seed/the playoffs. Very possible, but Miami will likely have to try and win crucial Week 18 with Skylar Thompson at QB…yikes. Big spot, but Thompson is a decent QB…and I think the Jets will pull back starters for Robert Saleh to help his friend Mike McDaniel. If I had to bet on whether Miami gets in or out of the playoffs in the end…I'd take the 'they're in' path, but with little confidence.
*Note: Robert Saleh is saying he's playing this game to win/like normal…but we'll see about that when they play the game…just how fast starters get pulled.
New England has a clear path to the #7 seed over Miami (and Pitt)…win Week 18 and IN. Tall task facing Buffalo who has a shot at the #1 seed at stake. My projection would be that the Patriots lose that game and then are out of the playoffs (unless MIA and PIT both lose too)…possible).
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Teddy Bridgewater (12-19 for 161 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was play OK enough to win…had that bad pick-six but was fine before that…but that's also when he got hurt, and I don't think he's going to play Week 18 with that injured hand -- but it's not official yet.
Skylar Thompson (12-21 for 104 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) came in and looked lost…the Pats defense smelled blood in the water, and New England took control of the game. Skylar started to get it together near the end, led a late TD drive but time had run out on a full comeback.
Skylar is good…Teddy is better (right now) given the experience for this huge Week 18 moment. If the Jets play full throttle with their starting CBs, it's going to be a tough day. If the Jets pullback on key starters…Skylar should OK to get the win.
-- If the Jets do go through with playing their starting CBs, then it's a downgrade for Tyreek-Waddle, who already get a downgrade for Skylar v. Teddy v. Tua.
-- If the Jets insist on 'playing to win' then Miami will (should) counter with a heavy run game approach (like what Seattle did to NYJ last week).
Jeff Wilson (15-45-0, 3-31-0/7) appears healed and has taken back the main role in this hot hand, 60/40 split situation with Raheem Mostert (9-29-0, 8-62-1/8).
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I'll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Rhamondre Stevenson (8-42-0, 2-9-0/4) has been playing hurt and dropping in effectiveness. Damien Harris (9-31-0, 3-18-0/3) returned from injury this game and played the most snap share percentage (48%) he has all season.
What will the share be Week 18?
If Stevenson is better/healthier this week, then that's Belichick's guy…but it's hard for any of us to know his real 'health'. But if Rhamondre is less effective, BB will not hesitate to go with the veteran Damien Harris. We're projecting a 60/40-ish type split for now in favor of Stevenson. This game is too big for Belichick to mess around in…he'll go with what's working in this moment. Tough matchup with the Bills.
-- Mac Jones (20-33 for 204 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) since his Week 7 benching moment: 9 TDs/2 INT. He's thrown for 4 TDs/0 INTs the past two weeks. Really tough matchup with Buffalo this week.
-- Tyquan Thornton (3-60-1/7) has been a ghost since Week 6, his second NFL game. All this week can be seen as is -- a random blip. He's not been a top target of Mac's most all season and since Week 7, he's caught 15 passes on 35 targets…a terrible 42.9% catch rate. The profile of Thornton as a random speedster is settling in…a maddening figure for FF because you never know when the one lightning strike game out of every 4-5-6 is gonna occur.
-- Marcus Jones (DNP) missed this game with a concussion. He's still trying to get cleared for Week 18. Just note that Jones has been terrific in his past three games, moving in as a starter. His last three games output…
9.0 tackles, 1.33 PDs, 0.67 INTs, 0.67 TFLs, 0.25 TDs per game.
Jones also has averaged 1.0 rec., 19.5 yards, and 0.25 TDs per game as a limited snap WR his last 4 games.
He's also #2 in the NFL in punt return average and #5 kick return average.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = J Wilson
30 = Mostert
02 = Ahmed
56 = Thornton
49 = Jakobi
28 = Bourne
27 = Agholor
34 = Stevenson
29 = D Harris
