2022 Week 17: Seahawks 23, Jets 6 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was a battle of two tough defenses, but one of the defenses (Jets) faced a smart QB and great game plan and the other defense (Seattle) faced a dying, unimaginative offense -- and thus the tough defense (Seattle) that faced the dead offense won the game…convincingly.
All credit to Seattle and Pete Carroll and Geno Smith. I keep betting against them, and they too often (for my betting) rise up and surprise…I thought the Jets would out-tough them here, but it was the other way around. Pete Carroll has been brilliant this year, and Robert Saleh has been the opposite.
Seattle got the lead quick and never let the Jets get close in this game…this was a beating from the opening kick on. Seattle gets a huge win to propel them to the current #7 seed/last wild card spot. Seattle needs to win Sunday and then hope Detroit wins the Sunday night game…if the Packers beat Detroit, then Green Bay goes to the playoffs, not Seattle.
The Jets lose and thus fall out of the playoff race completely. NYJ was once (7-4) and was emerging into a top 10 NFL team led by their defense…they’ve lost five straight since then and now the whole coaching staff is under scrutiny…and they should be.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Mike White (23-46 for 240 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) era officially ended here. All the good vibes from his one good game several weeks ago against an awful (and all banged up) Bears defense have dissipated. Part of the issue is White is just an OK talent at QB, not a franchise QB…just holds down the fort well. The other part of the problem is the Jets offensive plan is not great and that got exposed most weeks of the season…with the Jets defense covering it up/bailing it out a bunch.
Mike White will be a backup in 2023. The Jets will add a veteran QB (Jimmy G.), and likely not draft one with a 1st-round pick. Zach Wilson will be traded/given away.
-- The downfall of Mike White + the bad offensive play calling/unhappy WRs (O-C under real fire right now) + a very good, underrated Seattle defense = Garrett Wilson (3-18-0/11) had, arguably, his worst day in the NFL to date. Bad throws hurt him, but Seattle’s secondary was also all over him.
Be careful of a repeat performance for Wilson in Week 18 if Xavien Howard is playing for Miami…and with the risk Robert Saleh might help his buddy Mike McDaniel and hold out his stars for this game. The Jets gain A LOT with a Week 18 loss…they fall down to the top 10 in the NFL Draft, potentially, with a loss. Nothing to gain from a win for NYJ. It would be smart of Saleh to help a buddy out so he might return the favor someday -- be very wary of who the Jets will play/use/sit Week 18.
-- I have no idea what the Jets are doing with their backfield, which is fine for the NFL purposes…but sucks for FF projection purposes.
Ty Johnson (8-46-0, 1-11-0/5) started, out of nowhere, and split time and touches with Zon Knight (8-27-0, 2-17-0/3). Both looked fine, it’s just the Jets didn’t stick with anything…and couldn’t throw the ball…everything just looked bad on offense.
Michael Carter (1-2-0, 2-3-0/3) was like an afterthought here…like nearing James Robinson ‘ignore’ treatment.
Who will start/play most snaps or get the most touches Week 18? My guess is Knight with a possible resurrection of James Robinson long shot being active for some touches too. Again, I think the Jets are gonna pull back on the reins for Saleh to help McDaniel, so it could go any number of ways.
In 2023, it will be all-in Breece Hall with an unknown not-obvious handcuff.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Geno Smith (18-29 for 183 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) really played a brilliant game despite the moderate output. Facing a tough Jets pass defense, Geno smartly didn’t throw into trouble with his WRs often…he used his TEs more, and his RBs in the passing game which is the perfect way to attack the Jets D and Seattle stayed out of trouble and took/held the lead throughput. An MVP performance of ‘smarts’ not one of ‘oooh, look at the numbers!’
Geno absolutely deserves MVP consideration…not the winner, but in the discussion on the fringe.
-- The Seattle WR duo’s numbers against this vaunted Jets pass defense…
D.K. Metcalf (1-3-0/5) and Tyler Lockett (2-15-0/2)…yikes!
The most fearsome defense against your star FF WRs in a given week is when they face the Jets, and both the stud outside corners (Sauce/Reed) will be back for the Jets next year…potentially with more help around them. The Jets could be the top defense of the 2023 season, depending on free agency, the Draft, the schedule…
-- Colby Parkinson (5-36-1/7) led all Seahawk receivers in targets in this game…which brings a tear to my eye. Parkinson is starting to breakout as a legit, weaponized TE…but Seattle is so committed to a TE rotation that you can’t bet heavily on Parkinson (or Fant) for FF 2023.
Parkinson is not a free agent until 2024.
-- Seattle TE Tyler Mabry (1-7-1/1) was brought up to the main roster and scored a short TD. He’s nothing to even worry about for FF/Dynasty.
-- DeeJay Dallas (7-43-0, 3-55-0/4) got a good run of touches here. Seattle went with a heavy RB-based game plan, which (again) was smart. Kenneth Walker (23-133-0, 1-9-0/1) reeled off a 60-yard run on the first series and didn’t do much otherwise. Seattle has been pulling him on a lot of 3rd-downs, whether for Dallas or Homer. I bet Seattle drafts/acquires a 3rd-down specialist back in 2023 to go with Walker, which will kinda drag his PPR upside down next season.
-- DST talk…
We already noted the Jets bright/potential future into 2023, but I am thinking they will rest/protect Sauce Gardner among others Week 18…but it’s just speculation on my part.
The most insane thing the Jets team/organization could do is put Sauce Gardner, one of the 2-3-5 best/most important players in football, out onto the field in a meaningless game for the next decade.
But…that’s exactly the type of cluelessness the NFL is known for, so…who knows?
If I see Gardner take the field Week 18, it will clinch my theory that Robert Saleh is a terrible head coach…just a rah-rah guy who spits cliches all day on the sidelines but has no real business sense or cunning to run an NFL organization. Sticking with Zach Wilson like he did was the first major clue. Sauce playing one snap Week 18 would be the clincher.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Parkinson
45 = Fant
03 = Mabry
41 = K Walker
27 = D Dallas
59 = Metcalf
39 = Treadwell
27 = D Young
26 = Cade J
23 = Lockett
33 = Ty Johnson
20 = Carter
15 = Knight
