2022 Week 17: 49ers 37, Raiders 34 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
The most entertaining game/watch of Week 17…one of the most entertaining games I’ve watched this season.
Why? In large part, because two very good QBs did battle and played this like a video game of offense.
If you knew nothing about the 2022 history of these teams, or their records, or the point spread, or the mainstream scouting of these two team’s quarterbacks…and you just watched the game as-is, you would think they were both two of the top 10-15 or so teams in the league, offensive juggernauts, and that the two QBs were like #11-20 best QBs in the league.
Now, come back to reality after that statement. This was a surprise Jarrett Stidham start, a written off QB facing the supposed best defense in the NFL…as we’ve been told every week for the last 3-4-5-6-7 weeks by the media. Well, Stidham just sliced through the 49ers D like it was nothing. The 49ers had only allowed over 20 points in a game two times prior this season…and that was with mass injuries to the defense midseason…and then Jarrett Stidham planted 34 points on them (a healthy SF defense)…and nearly was, should’ve been 40+ points for Vegas and a victory.
Fluke or Stidham-reality? It was not a lucky fluke with turnovers and defensive or special teams scores boosting the game early (like GB over MIN this week). This was the Raiders playing toe-to-toe, arguably better than the 49ers. We’ll discuss both QBs in detail coming up.
The 49ers luckily sneak out with a win to keep their #1 seed hopes alive and moves into the #2 seed for now. They have a layup against Arizona Week 18, so they’ll get to (13-4) and hold that #2 seed for sure…and if Philly loses Week 18 (unlikely vs. a resting NYG team), then SF is not going to get that #1 seed most likely.
The Raiders’ long shot playoff hopes end with this loss, but it’s a loss that feels like a win. The controversial benching of Derek Carr turns into a shock ray of hope with Jarrett Stidham. Josh McDaniels loses this game but really fortifies his coaching status for 2023 and is a ‘winner’ this week, despite the loss, with his bold move.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, let's talk about these two QBs…and let’s start with Jarrett Stidham (23-34 for 365 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 7-34-0).
Speaking as a scout, based on this one game, this Stidham performance was above most/all the other ‘shock backup QB starts and does well’ events in 2022. Way better than Mike White’s 2022 debut (and then White has been dying since). Better than the scrappy Heinicke-Brissett-Minshew-Zappe-Pickett-Cooper Rush-Blough type emergency starts. Stidham’s performance, from a scouting perspective/technically, was above all the typical backup QBs.
I say all that as a scout…a critic/critique of the art of QB play.
Stidham looked like a real QB. He looked kinda like Kirk Cousins-ish…a better Jimmy Garoppolo, or like Jimmy Garoppolo. Great work from the pocket…never jumpy or panicked. Made his reads/progressions. Threw the ball accurately most of the game. His two INTs were a batted pass at the line of scrimmage, and an OT deep throw to Davante, that was the right read/throw, but he got hit by his own OL as he went to throw, and it wound up a duck that got easily picked off. It was a really quality/promising overall performance by Stidham.
Also, consider the context -- he looked like a champ, like a legit QB, no hesitation AGAINST the 49ers defense that has given fits to all offenses since getting healthy around Week 8. This was a huge game for the 49ers, and they almost got picked off by Stidham…the Niners did get outplayed or evenly played with but luckily got the win.
Also, I have to add-in to the mix my 2019 NFL Draft scouting of Jarrett Stidham where I thought there was star potential and the possibility that he was the #1 QB in his draft class (Kyler-Jones-Haskins class, 1-2-3 QBs taken). Our scouting said a high-end potential QB was possibly lurking…but it looked like it would never-be, but then he just splashed onto the scene this game.
One more side scouting note…Stidham is a good athlete. He ran for 34 yards here, but also nearly ran for two TDs…he had two scramble runs halted right around the goal line.
I don’t want to make too much out of one start -- but from my gifted scouting eye, this Stidham start looked a lot different than all the other veteran backup/emergency starters of 2022. It looked more like a quality 2022 Geno Smith start. I’m intrigued to see how Stidham follows this up against KC on Saturday primetime TV.
Could Stidham be the Vegas 2023 Week 1 starting QB? I laughed at that notion when asked last week on our Video Q&A show…but I’m not laughing now. You’ll see Stidham with a big jump in our Dynasty Stash rankings when they update on Tuesday 1/3/23 and we’ll discuss this more on the Tuesday night Video Q&A.
I’m not saying Stidham is now going to be a superstar, but he’s solid…and what he showed Week 17 was NFL starter-worthy to develop/work with.
-- The other QB in 2022 that I watched his debut and thought instantly this is way different than anything we’re used to seeing and proclaimed after his first relief work that we were likely looking at the best pocket QB in the 2022 NFL Draft -- was Brock Purdy (22-35 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).
When I had that huge reaction, the rest of the football world thought that Purdy played well for being thrown in but they in NO way thought Purdy was anything more than a Taylor Heinicke, Case Keenum type insignificant/cute backup that Kyle Shanahan was pulling the strings on. 4-5 weeks later, football analysts are now starting to wonder if Purdy really is good and if he might be the 49ers Week 1 starting QB in 2023.
Draft stock/status brainwashing everyone for a longtime/eternally on players is a real thing…especially with QBs. It makes no sense that Brock Purdy could instantly step in and be better than Jimmy Garoppolo in his first thrown-into-the-game work as a rookie. The mainstream scouting is constantly wrong/off, and yet we refuse to accept quickly when the next scouting error has occurred and won’t assume them wrong on their next scouting call. It’s a Psyop we all subconsciously fall for.
I was onboard with Purdy quickly in the preseason, but I also have to admit -- I didn’t think he was THIS good or could be in an instant thrown into games midway into his rookie season. However, I know IT when I see IT. Purdy’s preseason flash of skills and then his debut NFL game…it’s rare to see such ability, and it be a fluke.
Purdy, like Stidham, is a cut above the typical scrappy backup…or rookie. Purdy is reading progressions, going to 2nd-3rd reads, and has terrific throwing mechanics with a live arm. Purdy is not a game manager; he wasn’t anything like that right off the bat this preseason or in-season…and he is only getting better. Purdy is a real QB…but the mainstream thinks it’s cute that his last name sounds like a southern drawl for pretty and that he was ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ (more Psyops). I believe Purdy will be the 2023 Week 1 starter for SF…he’s playing so well that he will make Shanahan dismiss any Brady-Rodgers opportunity he might get in 2023 -- and I’d hate to be the person to try and make the decision between Brady or Purdy in 2023. Maybe just one season with Brady…and Purdy can learn even more and then takeover 2024? Possible.
Judging the two QBs with a scouting eye: I think Purdy is the better QB of the two right now, but I want to see how Stidham looks with more starts and more work with the 1s. Purdy has an X-factor at QB that you look for in a QB coming out of college…an ability you can’t hardly describe but you know it when you see it play that you want in a franchise QB. But I also know Stidham has size, experience, skills that could develop into his own starting QB run…like a Kirk Cousins or Geno Smith development/upside.
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-- Brandon Aiyuk (9-101-4/12) is getting the numbers with Purdy but watching the tape of the last three or so Purdy starts…I think George Kittle (4-23-1/8) is his favorite look/target. He’ll take Aiyuk without Deebo and to get the ball downfield, and Kittle often kept in blocking…but in crunch moments and in regular moments, I see Purdy sneaking initial looks at Kittle on his drop back and going there better than past SF QBs. Purdy is looking at Kittle more/better than I’ve seen Jimmy G., Lance, or any of the Shanahan QBs in his 49ers’ era.
Kittle used to be an FF-enigma of sorts…so good for a game or two then disappears for games, doesn’t get any TDs for long stretches, and can’t get above 5-6 TDs in a season. Purdy has dealt Kittle 5 TDs in the past three games. Kittle goes from top 5 Fantasy TE to now back to a strong #2-3 Fantasy TE for the upcoming season, IF Purdy is back at QB.
-- Jordan Mason (2-13-1/4) took two carries in this game…
1) A goal line carry he fell just short of a TD on.
2) Later game, a 10+ yard carry and score.
He nearly had two TDs on two carries. That’s his role, and it’s perfect (for NFL purposes). If he is the handcuff/relief back/short yardage back in 2023, Mason might score 10+ TDs in a season on all the short yardage work. Or Elijah Mitchell does so. More likely Mitchell works as that #2 in 2023…with Mason as the distant #3, who is waiting for the next Mitchell injury to elevate him.
Both await the next CMC injury to elevate them to RB1 status.
-- Davante Adams (7-153-2/11) was unbelievable in this game. Stidham was good…but it helped having Adams making some circus catches to push the numbers. I didn’t know where Davante’s head would be at with his BFF Carr dissed, but Davante probably had his best game of the season here -- because Stidham played the best game of quarterbacking that Las Vegas has had all season.
Still, when the dust settles…I bet Davante gets crossways with the Raiders in the offseason for doing what they did and he’ll want to force a trade, and Josh McDaniels will oblige. They (Carr-Adams) may be a mega-package deal of the century in the offseason.
I don’t think teams will want Carr like the media thinks they will, in trade. But with what teams give for Carson Wentz every year…what do I know?
-- It was a grind, but Josh Jacobs (17-69-1, 4-26-0/5) had a decent FF output when he scored a late short rushing TD. What a great season for Jacobs…conveniently in time for his pending free agency.
Will he play Week 18? He shouldn’t. He’s proven his case for 2023 free agency…but Josh McDaniels is gonna wanna put up another big game with his new toy Jarrett Stidham…and McDaniels does not care about Jacobs’ well-being for free agency. Not sure who will win out on the decision…the player wanting to sit (now that the playoffs are done) or the coach forcing him out there.
It’s like a big-time college RB prospect sitting out a bowl game…because ‘why play, for what?’
-- The 49ers defense has been terrific for several weeks…best in football many would argue. It’s shocking that Jarrett Stidham’s 2022 debut resulted in an absolute arse-kicking of this defense. It just goes to show there is no perfect defense in FF anymore.
I’m sure the SF-DST will bounce back against David Blough Week 18.
-- Raiders UDFA rookie ILB Luke Masterson (7 tackles, 1 TFL) had a couple really impressive plays in this game. Masterson got three starts in a row and he’s averaged 9.3 tackles per game with one TFL in each game. He’s trying to follow the Jack Sanborn path to IDP reality/hope.
Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = Adams
60 = Hollins
32 = Renfrow
55 = Moreau
40 = Waller (Waller traded in Feb.-Mar.-Apr. is very much on the table)
57 = McCaffrey
05 = Mason
05 = Davis-Price
