2022 Week 17: Cowboys 27, Titans 13 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
Going into this game, the Cowboys had everything in the world to play for…back in the NFC East hunt…in the #1 seed hunt! And with that, they were facing a Tennessee team who decided to ‘throw’ this game because the outcome for them meant nothing…they benched several key players, on top of all the ones they’ve been missing due to injury. It was set up to be a bloodbath game for the Titans, who were just trying to get to Week 18 for their showdown with Jacksonville.
The game was just 17-13 Dallas going into the 4th-quarter…inexplicably close.
Dallas pulled away, but Tennessee gave them all they wanted…Tennessee’s third+ string team, essentially. A bad win for Dallas.
Dallas did get the win and can still win Week 18 against ‘out of it’ Washington and if Philly loses…Dallas wins the NFC East. If the 49ers lose as well…Dallas would then be the NFC East #1 seed. The most likely outcome is all those teams win, Dallas then becomes a wild card and goes to Tampa Bay to crush them in the first round of the playoffs.
Tennessee has their entire season on the line for their Week 18 game against Jacksonville. Win and they win the NFC South and are a #4 seed, lose and they are done. Somehow, I feel like they will find a way to win Week 18.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As seems to be the norm now, any old QB can come off the streets and do well in the super complex NFL. Josh Dobbs (20-39 for 232 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-12-0) joined the team just a few weeks ago and jumped right in with a skeleton crew and no O-Line and was driving to try and take the lead in this game into the 4th-quarter.
Dobbs played solid football here. He was victimized by three critical drops on wide-open passes, and all of the drops were downfield and critical (1st-down moments blown). Had the catches been made, Tennessee might have really scared Dallas into the late 4th-quarter. Given all the surrounding circumstances, Dobbs played well.
So, it was no real surprise when Dobbs was named the starter for Week 18. Dobbs has more experience in the league than Malik Willis, and he just flat-out played better this one game than Willis has all year.
This is a bad statement on Malik Willis. Rookie QBs are stepping into the league and holding their own. So are journeyman QBs who just joined their new team two weeks prior. But Willis was barely functional all season.
We knew Willis was raw, but he played really raw all season in his spot/emergency starts. Willis has more in the tank, and I think will get better and be the QB of the future, but this is not a good moment for him. It does drive his offseason acquisition price down…for those who will be Dynasty interested, and I will be -- more on that this offseason.
-- Dobbs played solidly in this game. Jacksonville is not an unstoppable force on defense. Dobbs might have an OK game Week 18, but there is no obvious WR/TE he favors…not to tell from this game. And Derrick Henry didn’t play, so there’s that factor. I wouldn’t jump in on any of the Titans receivers for Week 18, because it will likely be a very low volume passing game from Dobbs by game plan.
-- It’s nearly impossible to render any great scouting report on Hassan Haskins (12-40-0, 2-13-0/3) from this game. I mean, no O-Line and journeyman QB…taking on Dallas. Most times Haskins touched the ball there were Dallas defenders touching him in the backfield. Haskins had to fight to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the game.
Julius Chestnut (4-0-0, 1-33-0/1), who I think is more talented than Haskins, got into the game eventually and took a screen pass for a big play, which then afforded him some play time and backfield touches…but then they quickly went away from him, and they didn’t try one of those screen passes again.
Neither are Derrick Henry.
Neither were in a good spot here to show off. They are just generic ‘big guy’, fairly talented RBs.
-- Malik Davis (10-39-0) filled in for Tony Pollard and didn’t do anything super special. He had one nice run…but it happened on internet television and he’s a Dallas Cowboy, so now Davis has some type of sleeper cult status with FF/Dynasty GMs. I don’t get it. He’s an OK enough backup hand.
Dallas needs to win Week 18, so it will be Elliott-Pollard…or if Pollard is out again, Zeke will take the bulk of the touches. Davis is not a sleeper for Week 18, in my eyes.
-- Dak Prescott (29-41 for 282 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) was facing one of the worst defenses rolled out onto an NFL field in 2022…because of Tennessee injury and resting…and yet Dak struggled for about three quarters and threw another 2 picks, now 12 picks his last 8 games. A career high 14 picks this season and he missed several games earlier in the season.
I’m not sure what is going on with Dak’s turnover penchant in 2022, but it won’t serve Dallas well in the playoffs when the matchups get tougher/tighter.
-- Dalton Schultz (7-56-2/10) had been flimsy for a few weeks now…low targets, low outputs...but he popped in this game. It’s one of those things…good matchup, and then Dallas couldn’t pull away, so they kept working all game and Schultz had a big game. Tougher matchup with Washington Week 18.
Schultz is a (6/8) this season…if you take away the games that he tried to play through injury he was a (6/6) in all other games. A (1/3) leading into this game and then posted his best PPR result of the season.
-- T.Y. Hilton (4-50-0/5) had his most targets/catches of his brief Dallas stint. Still, just 22 snaps played. It was a good time to get more work in with Dak, against a depleted defense. He’s still just a WR4/5 here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Gallup
68 = Lamb
47 = Noah Brown
22 = Hilton
53 = Zeke
26 = Malik Davis
43 = Haskins
14 = Chestnut
05 = Jon Ward
32 = Hooper
29 = Swaim
16 = Chig O.
