2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 17
Intro:
A better week this week (17) than Weeks 15-16, but still nothing special. Basically, the typical/random FFMer made it to the playoffs and had approx. 50/50 odds/win-rate of getting out of the wild card round…then approx. 50/50 odds/win-rate of getting through the final four into the finals, and then a 55/45 outcome of winning the finals.
Too many coin flip weeks in a row…very unusual for FFM history/tracking. We like to track 60-65%+ most weeks, and typically do on average -- but these 2022 FF playoffs for FFM tracking have not been hitting the 60% mark. The odds of running through three playoff games with 50/50 odds each week is .5 x .5 x .5 = a 12.5% chance to win the title. That's not what we usually track at, ever…but the last three weeks broke that trend…at the very wrong time.
This season, as a whole for FFM teams tracking, in a brief overview, ended up: a slow start the first few games, then figuring things out as we went with a strong move higher in the standings Weeks 5-12, with a killer Weeks 13-14 (best two weeks stretch in recent FFM history) going into the playoffs on a season end high note…and then major turbulence Weeks 15-16-17 trying to get through the FF playoffs.
Redraft teams were at the mercy of the 50/50 playoff run. Dynasty teams did much better as their war machines built over the course of years were deep and scoring well and winning divisions, getting byes…but then they too ran into some turbulence in the FF playoffs as well and ended up with a lower win% of playoff games than we've had in a few years.
What happened in the NFL Weeks 15-16-17? I'm not sure. We'll go through it in more detail this offseason. Not sure if a lesson to be learned for the future or just a bunch of random events, random turns of output at just the wrong time…whether due to things like radical weather (Week 16) or just the ever-changing NFL with its bizarre Mike Evans Week 17 events that happen (compared to his prior 6-7 weeks of duds). The constant curveballs of the NFL and thus Fantasy are what makes FF fun…and maddening…but some of the fun is the constant madness of it all.
Most of us had a great Fantasy run in 2022, a great ride for 14 weeks of the season…which too many had that joy ride memory wiped out in one loss in the FF playoffs, and I hate that the last memory is negative when there were such positives in a crazy thrill ride. But losing in the FF playoffs does the following to the memory of the season that happened: https://youtu.be/wqlFiTOi6QQ
Don't let it be. So many great moments and maneuvers all season just to get to the 2022 FF playoffs. It was an overall successful season with a sudden, unfulfilling ending for too many teams this year. It won't be long before we put the fighting gloves back on and get back into the octagon and are doubling, tripling, quadrupling all the transactions of our league mates as we play the game savvier than them all. But in any given week…
There are still a good amount of teams out there that already won titles Sunday, are winning titles but need to close it out tonight on MNF, or are hoping for a small miracle to win titles tonight -- Good luck to those with things on the line tonight…and it's a lot of title games are hanging in the balance with the huge number of BUF and CIN things on title game teams.
The NFL, in 2022, gave us so many plot twists and ever-changing landscapes that made us unable to turn away/put us on the constant edge of our seats. Whether or not you won a Fantasy title or had a profitable handicapping year or not (and most of us did cash in in a great handicapping season for sure!), we owe the NFL, and Fantasy a round of applause for the thrilling murder mystery it gave us to try and figure out daily…weekly…for the past five+ months. What other diversion is as mentally engaging and emotion provoking (and potentially profitable) as a Fantasy Football and handicapping season…the 2022 season, especially? And we still got the NFL playoffs to tinker with ahead for FF and/or just betting games and/or props.
Thank you, NFL (even though you vex me often)…and Fantasy Football…for a wonderful ride this regular season. And thank you for Dynasty leagues that gives us a 12-month a year puzzle to work on.
Thank you to everyone in the FFM universe who have supported us and gone on this 2022 ride with us.
Dynasty GMs…we're a week away from the offseason studies and moves to make for 2023. Get ready!
I hate coin flip win-rate weeks in Fantasy. May the coin toss go your way tonight for those that need it: https://youtu.be/bG8lmGjz31I
TEN-DAL
-- If I were the Titans, I'd go with Joshua Dobbs (20-39 for 232 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-12-0) for Week 18 over Malik Willis. Dobbs showed more experience/poise in his hurried start than Willis has shown this season. It would be a big statement by Mike Vrabel if he goes Willis instead…showing huge confidence in Willis. And the opposite is true as well…going with Dobbs could show the lack of desire/confidence Vrabel has in Willis, a QB he may not have ever wanted (thus the GM fired a few weeks ago).
-- A totally battered Tennessee defense, missing players to injury and purposefully benching others…and Dak Prescott (29-41 for 292 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) really struggled here, especially considering the nothing-defense he faced here…and Dak is playing very sloppy ball in most games this year. Dak is still productive, but also very turnover prone. Week 18 vs. WSH may not be a gimmie for Dak for FF.
Dak was a (3/1) in his return from injury Week 7. He's been a (2/4) since.
-- The Titans O-Line is all battered, on IR, held out, etc., this game too…so, it was asking a lot for Hassan Haskins (12-40-0, 2-13-0/3) to show out as the Week 17 starter here. Haskins was OK enough, but Julius Chestnut (4-0-0, 1-33-0/1) still looks like the better of the two backs/prospects to me…especially flashed when he had a nice catch-and-run 33-yard screen pass. I think Chestnut has the better future, but Haskins has the NFL's attention with draft stock and big school background.
ARI-ATL
-- The game announcers discussed that their pregame meeting/conversation with David Blough (24-40 for 222 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) got them the info that Trey McBride (7-78-1/10) was the receiver Blough felt most comfortable with…and 'voila' McBride leads all receivers in this game in catches, yards, and is the only player to catch a TD pass.
Assuming Blough starts Week 18, McBride is a TE1 projection for Week 18 without a doubt.
-- I thought Greg Dortch (4-15-0/10) would be Blough's top target, and he was (in target count) but not in output. It was just a weird game for Dortch, who was getting throws, but either the throws were off, or Dortch would catch it out of bounds, or one time Dortch tripped over his own feet and lost what might have been a 15-20+ yard catch and run play. He'll project as a WR2/3 next week because the targets/looks were solid.
-- The Tyler Allgeier (20-83-1, 1-12-0/1) takeover continues. He's the current, and the future heavy lead back for a head coach who only wants to run the ball. Three straight quality starts for Allgeier to end the FF season. Week 18…he may get pulled back some because he's had a big workload of late.
CHI-DET
-- Credit Justin Fields (7-21 for 75 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 10-132-0) for having a plausible FF game here. He was hurt early. There was a point in the late 2nd-quarter/before halftime where the Bears got Trevor Siemian warmed up and had his helmet on, but Fields (who was getting treatment in-between series) fought to get back in and he finished the game. I would have pulled him, as head coach, because there was NO reason to have him out there…but Fields played the whole game, with fading effectiveness and less running as they went. If he were 100%, I suspect he would've run for 200+ yards in this game, no joke.
Chicago is out of their minds if they let Fields play Week 18. I don't think he will.
-- Detroit was able to run all over the Bears, so D.J. Chark (2-56-0/4) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (4-62-0/5) had down games/lower targets. I thought Detroit would throw all over Chicago; they ran all over them instead.
Chark is a surprising (4/5) this season (excluding a game he got hurt very early and was out in)…a (3/2) his last five games -- but a weak output this game due to the flow of things.
-- Week 18 will likely be the backups for Chicago. David Montgomery (6-24-0, 2-12-0/3) may start for a series or two and then Khalil Herbert (5-31-0, 0-0-0/0) will likely take the bulk of the touches. A solid matchup with a very bad Vikings defense.
-- WHERE THE HELL WAS THIS LIONS DEFENSE WHEN I NEEDED IT LAST WEEK? 7 sacks, a pick, and a fumble recovery and only allowed 10 points. Just wanted to note…this was the defense emerging prior to Week 16 and was here for real. Week 16 against Carolina was the worst display of defense in 2022 season…why did this happen this one week? How? Because I'm FF cursed sometimes, probably.
DEN-KC
-- I thought Chase Edmonds (7-34-0, 3-39-0/3) might get a decent run of touches this game. He looks really good/fresh/quick/urgent. He likely will get the same touch count/snaps in Week 18, a secondary role…as the interim head coach will want to win a game, and thus push all the starters, to have that claim on his tombstone. I bet Denver plays everyone as normal Week 18, but they shouldn't. Maybe the GM will step in, we'll see.
-- Kadarius Toney (4-71-0/4) and Skyy Moore (3-33-0/4) look SO good in this offense, it kills me that they barely get the ball or snaps. Kansas City could have the best offense in the NFL in recent years, but they restrict their own selves. So many young WRs, rookie WRs in the NFL in 2022 have stepped in and became their team's best receiver by far, by midway through the season…while KC stunts the growth of their high-end young weapons. It's gonna cost them in the playoffs when they need big plays and they trot out MVS-Juju, Mecole as Skyy-Kadarius sit and watch.
-- Five straight games for Travis Kelce (7-43-0/10) with no TDs. In that same span, Jerick McKinnon (2-4-0, 5-62-2/6) has 8 TDs…and has been a major FF-title winning waiver grab. Remember when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a Chief?
MIA-NE
-- Teddy Bridgewater (12-19 for 181 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was doing OK…until he got hit and lost full feeling in his hand/broke his hand and had to be replaced by Skylar Thompson (12-21 for 104 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) who scuffled around and barely completed a pass to a WR and thus Tyreek Hill (1-2-1, 4-55-0/7) and Jaylen Waddle (3-52-0/5) came up short. We'll probably see Tua next week, which is good news for Tyreek-Waddle owners still playing Week 18.
-- I thought Kendrick Bourne (1-2-0, 1-16-0/2) could be a wild card performer Week 17, but the wild card was a dud. He barely played despite being their best WR all season in a game Week 17. Belichick really hates that guy.
-- Damien Harris (9-32-0, 3-18-0/3) took over more touches than expected because Rhamondre Stevenson (8-42-0, 2-9-0/4) was ineffective, and Harris was fresh and rolling. Week 18 is a must-win/all-in so it will be a hot hand work between them but with the lean Rhamondre as always.
Rhamondre started out a (9/3) but finished (last 4 games) as a (1/3) with three single digit performances.
IND-NYG
-- I've been a bit late to the Richie James (7-76-1/7) party but got onboard a touch Week 16 (late, when someone asked about him on a Video Q&A) and then got more onboard the more I studied the NYG games the past few weeks and thus projected him to be the NYG WR to have Week 17…and that paid off. A great end to the season for James, and he'll likely be a nobody next year when Wan'Dale Robinson takes his spot back.
James probably doesn't play in meaningless (to NYG) Week 18. Nor will the other starting WRs, you'd have to heavily assume.
James started the season an (0/9) and finished a (5/2)…one of the better quality start splits of the 2nd-half of the season.
-- Jelani Woods (3-19-0/4) had a 'meh' game, as feared, because of the Indy QB play. Just note…Jelani had a catch-and-run 30+ yard play negated in this one, another brilliant individual play by Woods making lemonade out of lemons…and everyone can see it, except the Indy coaching staff, who then doesn't go with him more after these big plays he makes. I pray they get a real coach/coaching staff in 2023…but I'm not holding my breath.
-- Well, my NYG-DST push worked…it was going so-so most of the game because they weren't getting the sacks I expected, but they eventually got a sweet pick-six to make it worth the Week 17 start. They had about 2-3 other near pick-sixes as well, just luck against us from this being a super-hot event.
NO-PHI
-- As I feared, Gardner Minshew (18-32 for 274 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) didn't play well here. He didn't look good last week on tape and struggled here with a tough/motivated Saints defense. Week 18, if Minshew plays, he'll face a 'resting' NYG team and might be way better off for FF production...but there is a chance Jalen Hurts plays to get that #1 seed.
-- Rasheed Shaheed (6-79-0/6) led the Saints in receiving, which was good…and he had that big play but was cut down short of a TD and thus had a solid FF performance not the nuclear bomb 20+ point effort. Close…but no cigar.
Shaheed is a (2/1) the past three weeks…and the 'one' was the frigid/high winds game vs. CLE.
-- Leave it to the Saints to wait until the final meaningful game of the season (for them) to use Taysom Hill (14-46-1, 2/2 passing for 24 yards) heavier than they have all season. Dennis Allen is one of the anti-Coach of the Year candidates…a coach that hurt his team the most with his personnel decisions.
CAR-TB
-- I knew as soon as I had a tirade about Mike Evans (10-207-3/12) always failing us waiting around for his big game to happen…then he'd have that game. And he did. This event has been in the making for about 5+ weeks now.
It still looks shaky between Brady-Evans, despite the numbers, but it worked here for sure…won some title games for people who had him. If you lost to Evans or benched him…you can't beat yourself up. The guys sucks (for FF and NFL purposes) for like 7-8 weeks in a row and then explodes here. It just happened at the worst time for some people…at the right time for others.
Evans started out as a (4/3) then went (0/7)…then dropped a 50+ PPR point nuclear bomb Week 17. How great is football? You have no idea what will happen one week to the next! Not great if you opposed Evans…or benched him…
-- D'Onta Foreman (13-35-0) had 'that week' again. He either goes off for 110-120+ yards…or is in the 20-30 yards rushing range. No rhyme or reason…just Steve Wilks and the opposing defenses starting or stopping him. Likely, Foreman sits a lot or all of Week 18 as the veteran hand in a now meaningless game for Carolina…but that's pure speculation. What Steve Wilks does Week 18 is an unknown…he may play it to win to help his resume to get the job (which he absolutely should NOT).
-- Another week of Tampa going with Leonard Fournette (10-28-0, 4-19-0/4) too much and it almost cost them. They pivoted to Rachaad White (11-22-0, 5-26-0/5) more for the 2nd-half comeback. If they'd just start and stick with White, their offense would be so much better off…but that's barking at the moon for this awfully run Buccaneers team…that we hear more about what Bruce Arians thinks about things than the actual head coach.
There are a lot of good rookie RBs from the 2022 class, but Rachaad is much better than all of them…including Breece Hall.
CLE-WSH
-- Somehow, Deshaun Watson (9-18 for 169 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 8-31-0) completed just 9 passes in this game…but 3 of them for TDs. And Amari Cooper (3-105-2/4) turned a short pass into a long TD to really give the numbers. Watson does not look that great this season, he's not getting radically better as he goes…he looks like a bottom 10 in the league talent to me right now. Maybe a full offseason will change that? That will be the narrative this offseason.
Amari was an (8/8) this season…(7/5) with Brissett, (1/3) with Watson.
-- Carson Wentz (16-28 for 143 yards, 0 TDs/3 INT, 3-7-1) likely ended his 'purposeful starter' career this game. Ron Rivera is going to be haunted by this decision all offseason and beyond. Sam Howell will likely start next week for Washington.
-- Rookie RB Jerome Ford (5-9-0) got in on some touches this game. He will be the likely main carrier in Week 18 with the Browns out of the playoffs. Nick Chubb (14-104-0, 1-12-0/1) may start and play for a series or two, but then it should be Ford getting his long-awaited (real) look at him in the NFL. Ford will likely be the #2 back with Chubb in 2023.
JAX-HOU
-- Jacksonville scored TDs early on a couple long runs and then a defensive score…and that gave the Jags a big enough lead where they didn't have to throw and pulled Trevor Lawrence (17-21 for 152 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) early and the receivers all flopped for output along with it. The run game led the way, then they pulled starters…tough break for those who played Jags-things for the passing game.
-- Davis Mills (22-40 for 202 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-33-0) has likely played his way out of being the 2023 starter for Houston, but I think he's shown there's enough to work with there to stick by him and develop him…but if Lovie Smith is back, they ain't developing anything on offense.
-- Jalen Pitre (13 tackles, 1 INT) had another big output game. He's making a run at Defensive Rookie of the Year but that award HAS TO go to Sauce Gardner, who could've been a Texan…instead they choose Derek Stingley in one of the worst draft moves in NFL history. Taking Stingley and bypassing Sauce will haunt them for the next decade+.
SF-LV
-- Jarrett Stidham (23-34 for 365 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 7-34-0) was obviously the right call by Josh McDaniels for Week 17…wow, what nice numbers versus the vaunted 49ers defense. Could see some follow up as LV faces KC in Week 18, in a possible shootout again, on national TV Saturday night.
I liked Stidham (in our scouting) out of Auburn but kinda gave up on him when he got lost in New England and looked like he'd be a career backup. Not so fast…Stidham has now opened the door to 'is he McDaniels's guy?'
At least that will be the narrative this week. We'll see about after his Week 18 performance.
-- Brock Purdy (22-35 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) logged his 5th win a row and his 5th game in a row with exactly 2 TD passes in each game…as he makes his case to be the 49ers 2023 starting QB, which I believe he will be unless Tom Brady forces his way in there, or Aaron Rodgers…or Kirk Cousins.
-- Jordan Mason (2-13-1) keeps making his case to be the 2023 CMC handcuff, but it will probably be Mason/Mitchell rotating in and out of the role, and who can stay healthy.
NYJ-SEA
-- Ty Johnson (8-46-0, 1-11-0/5) started but Zon Knight (8-27-0, 2-17-0/3) had the most touches at RB…as the Jets have veered of course with their backfield and it's now an unknown for Week 18, but you can't bet on any of them. The Jets are collapsing.
-- That Jets secondary I was so fearful of even for the big name WRs…
D.K. Metcalf (1-3-0/5) and Tyler Lockett (2-15-0/2)…wow…and that's off the heels of completely shutting down Kirk-Zay Jones Week 16.
Tyreek-Waddle up next week, and with Skylar Thompson possibly at QB.
-- The Mike White (23-46 for 240 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) 'is the future' talk is over. 0 TDs/4 INTs and an (0-3) record in his last three games. He won't be the Jets starting QB Week 1 of 2023 season. That starter is likely Jimmy Garoppolo, as a pure guess.
MIN-GB
-- Green Bay got a kick return TD and then a pick-six TD right out of the gates and that threw the entire game script in the trash. Green Bay got a fast, big lead…so that when they finally did go on offense they played it safe and got the victory. That killed Allen Lazard's (5-59-0/6) upside shot against a soft target secondary. Lazard did have a TD shot on a catch near the goal line -- but of course he was tackled a yard short.
-- A.J. Dillon (12-41-1, 0-0-0/1) scored another TD…6 rushing TDs in his last 5 games…just one TD his first 11 games. How can you bet against him getting another TD Week 18?
The sad part is…36-36-41 for rushing totals in his last 3 games. He's still a sidepiece.
-- Kirk Cousins (18-31 for 205 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) flopped in Week 17…as the Green Bay defense FINALLY had its signature game of 2022. Where was this defense when we tried to start the season with it?
LAR-LAC
-- Another nice DST performance from the Chargers. We started out, many of us, with GB and LAC DSTs out of the gates. They flopped early and we all went elsewhere…but now LAC is hitting its stride and GB just had their game of the year. A lot of our redraft sleepers/plans ended up flopping out of the gates, but then coming on strong down the stretch…but we'd moved on from most of the LAC-DST, Evan Engram, D.J. Chark. A.J. Dillon crowd and didn't always get them back during their revival.
Just whining.
LAC-DST is, right now, a combo of better play PLUS a super-duper easy schedule down the stretch.
-- Cam Akers (19-123-0, 1-10-0/2) was solid again…what a rags-to-riches story for 2022. I bet the Rams are NOT planning to have Akers as their lead in 2023. Akers is set to get the Darrell Henderson pariah treatment in 2023, if McVay is still around.
-- It's sad watching Justin Herbert (21-28 for 212 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) continue to go to waste. LAC is in love with itself for getting leads on sad teams and then going ultra-conservative to take home the win. I think LAC will get decimated by whomever they draw in round one of the playoffs…the best bet of the year might be if LAC is the #6 seed, then whatever team is #3 seed in the AFC, lay the points against LAC is the best bet. CIN or KC or BUF.
If LAC is the #5 seed (likely) then it's a mild bet on JAX/TEN…who will probably be home underdogs to LAC.
In 2021, Herbert was an (11/6)
In 2022, Herbert was a (6/8)…ending as an (0/3) his last three games.
It's unconscionable that Herbert would fall off on production like this…and the problem is not him, I guarantee that. But this staff is now likely back for 2023. I just can't with Herbert if this O-C is back next season.
PIT-BAL
-- Another week, another underwhelming Kenny Pickett (15-27 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) game output. Yes, he's getting the late game winning TDs…somehow, but the prior 58 minutes of any game the past 2-10 weeks have been very underwhelming. He's struggling to complete 60% of his passes as he goes…his Comp. Pct. has been in decline as you move throughout his 2022 season. He has six games with 1 TD pass, six games with no TD passes…never a game with 2 TD passes. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has stepped in and had five straight games with 2 TD passes each game.
Something is not working here. We'll look at it in the offseason. Is it a Zach Wilson doom…or a Trevor Lawrence uptick that can happen year two?
-- The fact that Pickett has gone away from George Pickens (2-29-0/4) the past several weeks is a sign that there's some kind of issue with Pickett. No one/QB should be that stupid as to reduce throws to their best WR. Pickens targets the past 5 games: 2-3-5-5-4. It's a puzzle to figure out for the 2023 season…is Pickett a problem, and gonna bring down Pickens…or will Pickett grow and Pickens will become a star (that he should be)?
-- Remember when Demarcus Robinson (1-9-0/3) was a hot thing? His last two games…
Week 16 = 1-6-1/1
Week 17 = 1-9-0/3
Not sure if it's a 'Huntley problem' (Mark Andrews had a big game Week 17) or that it will be fixed by Lamar Jackson (if he's back Week 18). It's been so bad in recent weeks; I don't know how you trust it for Week 18 even with Lamar back.
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER/FREE AGENT PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don't mean that a D-F grade is 'bad'/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it's hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to 'project' (i.e. 'guess') what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
…Week 18 is always difficult to project waivers early in the week because of trying to figure out who's playing or being pulled and what players need what things to happen for contract bonuses, etc. This is our best guess to start the week, and we'll keep digging and altering all week…
1) TE Taysom Hill, NO (Grade: A-B-C)
I'd grab him early in the week and see if the Saints make a surprise announcement that Taysom will start at QB Week 18…and then you get the starting QB numbers at TE…finally…as I've been trying to manifest to happen for weeks on end.
2) TE Trey McBride, ARI (Grade: C+)
When I heard the game announcers proclaim (on their first drive) that David Blough told them that he was still trying to figure things out for his first Arizona start (only been on the team a couple weeks), but that Trey McBride was the one guy who he seemed to have a pass game connection with…I was intrigued. Then, Blough proceeded to treat McBride like Travis Kelce in Week 17. I don't think this will change off/away in a week…only the opposing coverage might get more clued in, but Blough is going to McBride with serious intent…so ride the trend developing.
3) WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Grade: C)
I don't believe the Saints will rest/pull Shaheed Week 18. And Shaheed is starting to show real WR skills. He's arguably their best WR right now. Whether Dalton-Hill-Winston, Week 18 vs. Carolina could be a big week for Shaheed…and especially if Chris Olave is rested this week.
4) RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Grade: C)
I think the Bears might pre announce that Herbert is going to start, and Montgomery held out of Week 18 (along with Justin Fields and others). If so, Herbert has often produced when given the full shot at things.
5) RB Zamir White, LV (Grade: C-/D+)
Las Vegas is out of the playoffs and potentially/likely to sit Josh Jacobs out of respect. If so, White would be in-line for a full start, but he's also not been 100% (ankle)…so, we'll have to monitor the practice reports and news out of Vegas this week.
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***FIVE WAIVER/FREE AGENT PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) RB Corey Clement, ARI
James Conner got hurt Week 17 and is likely to be held out Week 18 (an assumption…whether hurt or not). Corey Clement was the back given the relief work Week 17…but I would assume Week 18 the Cardinals will want to take a look at Keaontay Ingram more than journeyman Clement. We might even see Ty'Son Williams brought up from the practice squad for some work.
2) TE Robert Tonyan, GB
Had his best game (Wk17) since October…and scored a TD for the first time in his last 12 games. Just a blip we have to assume. Only 4 targets Week 17 for his 3-52-1/4 game.
3) WR Tyquan Thornton, NE
Scored a TD Week 17, his first TD since Week 6. Thornton is playing a bunch of snaps but is usually lightly targeted and has a terrible catch-rate on his targets (48.8% this season). Hard to trust him Week 18. Week 17 was likely more a blip than any rise to greatness.
4) RB Malik Davis, DAL
We'll have to see the way the NFL schedules Week 18 games, but there's a lot of chatter by FF analysts guiding to grab Davis as some hot event for Week 18. I HIGHLY assume the Eagles and Cowboys will play at the same time (1pm or 4pm ET), forcing both teams to play normal because Dallas could win the division with a win/Philly loss…and Dallas could have a long shot chance at the #1 seed. I suspect PHI-DAL-SF will all play at the same time to force them all to play the game to win/not resting players.
If true, then Davis would be a relief back to Zeke IF Tony Pollard is out, but I would assume Pollard back to work with Zeke to play Week 18 as normal, and Davis is an afterthought. There's better backup RBs to gamble on rising up to main carries Week 18 than trying to threat a needle with Davis.
If the schedule changes and there's a chance Dallas's game is meaningless…you won't know it going into the 1pmET games anyway. Davis is a huge gamble to guess ahead on being super-relevant Week 18.
*Late breaking news: The NFL did what would be expected…both PHI and DAL, and SF play at 4pmET. They're all forced to play the game with a chance at the #1 seed.
5) WRs Richie James/Isaiah Hodgins, NYG
I assume the Giants will sit Daniel Jones, Saquon, and all the starting WRs…so, no sense hopping on this train now. You already missed it. Even if they play Week 18 it will very likely be with Tyrod Taylor…and that's not good either.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT 'Buy at any price'…it's Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It's also NOT…go immediately ask the owner 'What do you want for ____', don't telegraph your desires.*
-- Closed up for 2022 season, since most all trade deadlines have come and gone. We'll discuss undervalued players or sell-off options within the game reports all week, as they arise. --
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT 'Sell at any price'…it's sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
-- Closed up for 2022 season, since most all trade deadlines have come and gone. We'll discuss undervalued players or sell-off options within the game reports all week, as they arise. --
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) WR Greg Dortch, ARI
People will wanna give up on him after a 4-15-0 line in Week 17 with David Blough, but he did have a team high (tie) 10 targets and there were so many close calls/just missed opportunities and fluky things that caused the faceplant. It may get 'righted' Week 18 if DeAndre Hopkins is out again (and we assume he will).
2) TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN
Nate Hackett gone, Greg Dulcich on IR…and welcome back from the dead, Albert O. in Week 17 -- 3 catches, 45 yards, and a TD with 53% of the snaps played. Good matchup for him Week 18 vs. LAC.
I think my entire 2nd-half of typical redrafts back in August would have won a million dollars in DFS if I played them all Week 17. Albert O. was my #2 TE on several teams…and he got benched about 2-3 weeks in, for unknown reasons on the dying Denver team.
3) QB Jarrett Stidham, LV
I have had scouting hope for Stidham back to his NFL entry out of Auburn, but pretty much gave up on him mattering for the NFL/FF last year…but this Week 17 with him throwing for 365 yards and 3 TDs on the vaunted 49ers defense relit the flame/candle of hope! Week 18 vs. KC could be another showcase for JS and a shootout with KC on primetime TV Saturday night. You know Josh McDaniels wants to show off his coaching prowess with another big Stidham tally.
4) RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI
James Conner banged up Week 17…it's time for Arizona to see what Ingram can do.
5) RB Brittain Brown, LV
If Zamir White is not 100% for Week 18, and if the Raiders decide to sit Josh Jacobs…rookie Brittain Brown could get a surprise start to show what he can do. He looked very capable/good in the preseason.
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-- FIVE…IT'S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) QB Mike White, NYJ
Well, that was over fast. A few weeks ago, after one game, White was declared the future of the Jets…about a month later, not so much. The Jets are collapsing to the finish, and White along with it.
2) WR Kendrick Bourne, NE
The Week 16 star got stiffed by Belichick in Week 17, as feared. No way to trust him Week 18.
3) TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN
Neither Willis or Dobbs is good for trusting Chig to have a big game or just FF-worthy game Week 18. They could feed him a ton of screens…but Tennessee has never shown that desire…going back to Jonnu Smith making highlight plays then never seeing the ball again all game.
4) WR Adam Thielen, MIN
His last two weeks combined: 2 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. Are you kidding me? His career is coming to a close fast. He could always pop back up with a TD/decent game, but after the past two weeks how could you confidently go there with plenty of other options?
5) WR George Pickens, PIT
Just 3.8 targets per game his past 5 games, with no game over 5 targets in any game. Kenny Pickett puts up low volume and he's ignoring Pickett most pass attempts…not a good combination. How could you trust him for a rebound/reversal Week 18?
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVERS(?) OPTIONS***--
1) Jaguars-DST
Facing either Willis or Dobbs…it's a DST1 type of matchup for even a mediocre DST.
2) Seahawks-DST
A must-win week and facing the Rams with their bad O-Line and weak weapons.
3) Jets-DST
Facing Miami, which might be Skylar Thompson…it's worth a strong look if they get to face Skylar. Useable v. Teddy. Neutral vs. Tua.
4) Bengals-DST
If the Bengals win MNF v. BUF and Lamar still not back Week 18, then this is nice.
5) Texans-DST
A deep sleeper facing the awful Colts, and Houston still trying to win games because Lovie thinks he won't be fired with a season ending win to build 'momentum'.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) CB Marcus Jones, NE
If he was dropped/not picked up last week because he was inactive due to concussion…if he's back Week 18, and he should be, he's likely all-in starting 100% of the snaps and also playing 5-10 snaps on offense. He could be the top DB for IDP Week 18.
2) CB Dallis Flowers, IND
Played 94% of the snaps Week 17 (a season high by far) and had 4 tackles, and Daniel Jones didn't throw one pass at him…I'll have to watch the tape on why…but I bet it was because Flowers has Pro Bowl CB potential, and it went on display here. Plus, he's an ace return man as well. Tall Marcus Jones…a weapon.
If he starts Week 18, and he should, he could be a shock IDP producer.
3) CB Nahshon Wright, DAL
Was on here last week as well. Week 17, Wright got his first start and responded with 9 tackles, 2 PDs, and an INT from the 6'4” CB that I keep saying has some Tariq Woolen look to his play.
4) DL Michael Hoecht, LAR
Our boy has 4 starts now, and is averaging 4.6 tackles, 0.6 sacks, .80 TFLs per game…not bad, especially in leagues where he is classified as a 'DT'.
5) LB Tony Fields, CLE
Followed up his 10-tackle game Week 16 with a 9 tackle game Week 17. He should get another start Week 18 to finish out the season and be a threat for 10+ tackles again.
6) DE Darrell Taylor, SEA
Taylor is finally producing more consistently after years of hype. 5.5 sacks in his last 5 games. 7.5 sacks in his last 8 games.
7) LB Jack Gibbens, TEN
One of 'Vrabel's guys', a throwback grinder/smart ILB. The UDFA rookie out of Minnesota continues to rise in snaps and started Week 17 and responded with a 10-tackle game. He may be the Week 18 starter too.
8) DE Josh Paschal, DET
The 1st-round draft pick had his best game of 2022…his first 2 sacks of his career. Might be more playing time for Paschal Week 18, but hard to bet heavy on for an IDP start unless super deep leagues.
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OUTTRO:
Anything possible with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen tonight. Buckle up for what should be a video game event, which means it will probably end up like a 10-7 game with the way NFL games have gone crazy these past few weeks.
Actually, the way the NFL has been going…Buffalo will take a 49 point halftime lead, and then Cincinnati will score 50 unanswered and win in the 2nd-half at the buzzer.
Good luck tonight! You never know what opportunity will knock, so be ready… https://youtu.be/ANlMM0HQxC0
