DFS Shark Tank Week 17: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
Andrew Duhan, better known as ‘Andrew DFS’, is a serious DFS player and is the most expert player I (RC) know. He gives us weekly DFS advice for main slate’s every week. Here are some of his picks and avoids for this week…
QB STACK:
The highest game total for Week 17’s mainslate is DET vs CHI (52.5).
DET QB Jared Goff’s low salary of $5,600 makes him an attractive option for this week. As such, Goff is projected to be the highest owned QB (close to 20%). Goff is a fine option for cash games, but it may be worth considering the other QB in this matchup for GPP contests.
CHI QB Justin Fields ($7,900) is much more expensive than Goff but can provide considerably more upside due to his ability to run the ball. Fields rushed for close to 150 yards in his last matchup vs the Lions which was outdoors. This game will be played indoors against a Lions defense that made CAR RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard look like Derrick Henry and Adrian Peterson. Both RBs set career highs last week, and Fields may rush for over 200 yards if the Lions can’t figure out the appropriate adjustments to shore up their run defense.
The only CHI teammate I may consider stacking with Fields is RB David Montgomery; all other options are very volatile. CHI WR Chase Claypool is the most talented WR on the Bears but has been dealing with an injury. I’m much more interested in the bring back pieces on Detroit. WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) and WR D.J. Chark ($4,300) have a ton of upside in this game. Keep in mind that St. Brown is projected to be the second highest own receiver; Chark has a much lower ownership projection (close to 10 percent). DET RB D’Andre Swift has seen increased usage in the passing game (6.4 targets per week since Week 12); however, the Lions coaching staff’s infatuation with RB Jamaal Williams makes Swift a risky play. It’s worth noting that Williams (not listed on the injury report) and Detroit’s third RB Justin Jackson are both dealing with injuries. If either are limited whatsoever in this matchup, Swift becomes an elite option.
Mid-range player:
In cash games, WAS RB Brian Robinson and ATL RB Tyler Allgeier are priced in the low $5,000 range. Both their ownership projections should exceed 20% making them less desirable GPP plays.
This week, GB WR Allen Lazard ($5,400) draws a great matchup against the Vikings secondary. Lazard drew 11 targets last week when teammate WR Christian Watson ($5,900) was ruled out at halftime due to a hip injury. Watson is listed as questionable on the Packers injury report. If Watson misses this game, Lazard becomes a great play against a weak secondary. On the other hand, if Watson is ready to go, he becomes a great mid-range option himself.
Cheap player:
ARI WR Greg Dortch ($3,000) has an ownership projection less than 10% and draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons secondary. Fellow Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins was ruled out earlier today so it’s possible that Dortch’s ownership trends upwards before kickoff tomorrow. Don’t expect Dortch to have 11 targets again this week; however, at this price point, even half those targets could lead to a great ROI and provide great cap flexibility for other positions.
Chalk to avoid:
NYJ WR Garrett Wilson ($5,500) has the largest ownership projection on Week 17’s mainslate. It’s expected that over 30% of lineups will include Wilson due to his low price and NYJ QB Mike White will make his return this week. When White started at QB in Weeks 12 through 14, Wilson averaged 10 targets, 6 catches, 111.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. Keep in mind that Seattle’s secondary is no joke this year. Rookie CB Tariq Woolen is having a fantastic season and may present problems for Wilson. Seattle hasn’t allowed a WR to go over 100 yards since Week 1 (Jerry Jeudy). The Wilson vs Woolen matchup will be fun to watch but I’d stay away for FF purposes.
