2022 Week 16: Bills 35, Bears 13 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was a weird game…it was just a one score deficit for the Bears with 4 minutes remaining in the game, but the Bills put together two TD drives late to seal the deal. Buffalo was definitely the better team, but Chicago was scrappy and hanging in with Buffalo…but the Bills were too much in the end, and the ‘right’ team won in one of those ‘feels like’ -10 or so temperature games Week 16 was doling out.
Buffalo (12-3) keeps trucking towards the #1 seed…if they win their final two games, they can lockdown the #1 seed…but a HUGE game Week 17 with the Bengals, who are also looking to sneak into the #1 seed, but as importantly they want to finish ahead of Buffalo for the #2 seed at a minimum…so as not to have to play the 2nd-round at Buffalo.
The Bears have lost 8 games in a row…11 losses in their last 12 games. They have a chance at getting the #1 pick by losing out and if Houston wins another game. The Bears could be a very dangerous team in 2023-2024 with the young nucleus and Justin Fields’ rapid improvement and Matt Eberflus’s defensive expertise.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I rewatched this mostly focused on Justin Fields (15-23 for 119 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 7-11-0)…he was finally halted from his terrific eight-week run as the best QB in Fantasy Football. How? Why?
I didn’t see anything in particular that was ‘bad’. It was very cold. Fields didn’t look like he wanted to run as much (nothing at stake for Chicago/Fields). Buffalo deployed a decent run defense attack on him…whenever he tried to take-off, there was usually a Buffalo Bill coming in after him. Buffalo didn’t lay back and wait for Fields to get running…as soon as they saw Fields leaving the pocket, defenders were committing in -- which is smart, and a worry for the future for Fields…that teams will figure out how to stop his elite running.
The counter to that is Fields recognizing the overplay on his running and him pulling back off a scramble to throw to wide open WRs downfield, and he did that a few times but nothing really clicked run or pass, from Fields, this game. He didn’t look ‘bad’…just subdued…Buffalo executing a nice plan.
How to properly value Justin Fields for 2023 and beyond is one of my top priorities for offseason Dynasty studies.
-- Because of the weather, Chicago ran the ball more…David Montgomery (16-62-0, 4-22-0/4) and Khalil Herbert (6-7-0, 2-0-0/3) took 22 carries -- but to no real avail. It was a smart plan/attempt on two fronts…
1) The weather was bad/rough, and Chicago played a safer game and was in the game for 55 minutes. Buffalo was turning it over pushing the offense, the Bears played small ball.
2) Fields still has some shoulder issues and getting hit a lot in wicked cold weather wouldn’t have been a great idea.
This Bears run game gets the Lions run defense that got humiliated by Carolina in Week 16. Montgomery has to be an RB1 projection betting against Detroit fixing their issue/Chicago not studying it and doing the same as Carolina did.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Again, the rough weather leading to safe offense desires…Buffalo ran for 254 yards and 3 TDs in this game.
Everyone got in on the action, even James Cook (11-99-1, 1-9-0/2)…who continues to look like the Bills most dangerous weapon and yet they run plays with Cook like he’s a normal/regular RB and still don’t exploit his passing game talents. It’s really unbelievable…and I think is the reason the Bills will fall short of a title this season -- Ken Dorsey is a poor offensive coordinator, the Bills offense has been trending down all season (still good, but not like they were), and the O-C’s issues are gonna bite them in the playoffs against the power teams. James Cook should be so much further along and used so much more creatively and getting 5+ targets a game -- but Ken Dorsey is too smart for that.
Brian Daboll may have been the brains behind the operation after all…
All we can project on Cook for Week 17 is him as an RB3 because his touch counts are all over the board the past two months.
-- Dawson Knox (3-38-1/5) had 2 TDs his first 11 games of the season…a HUGE disappointment for FF 2022. However, he has scored a TD in each of his last 3 games and is coming on strong.
Knox’s last three games: 4.3 rec. (6.7 targets), 59.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.
Good matchup this week vs. Cincy in a massive game for each team.
-- Points allowed by the Bears defense their last 8 games…
49
35
31
27
31
28
25
35
Rushing yards allowed by the Bears defense their last 5 games…
149
158
175
112
254
I think Detroit is going to have a big offensive game for FF against Chicago this week…at home/dome coming off an embarrassing loss the prior week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Pringle
46 = Pettis
29 = Velus Jones
42 = Montgomery
26 = K Herbert
48 = Knox
22 = Q Morris
37 = Singletary
26 = J Cook
03 = Hines
