2022 Week 15: Chiefs 30, Texans 24 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
The Texans played another good/top team to the wire…hanging with them all the way, but eventually giving up the ghost and losing. In recent weeks, Houston has played toe-to-toe with Philly, Dallas, and now KC -- they tied or led all three of those opponents at halftime of their contests.
Houston led 21-16 here, going into the 4th-quarter. KC took the lead back with 12 minutes to go, but Houston then tied it with 5 minutes remaining. It went to OT where KC was stopped on their first drive and Houston got the ball with their chance to win it…but Davis Mills got stripped on the first play and KC got the ball, then they scored a short TD the very next play and…ballgame.
Houston is now (1-12-1) but is playing a lot better than that. They are in-line for the #1 pick in the draft and just need to lose two of their next 3 games to lock it in. They likely will.
Kansas City escapes with a win to go to (11-3) but things aren’t going as well as you’d think. KC has struggled to win with the bottom of the barrel in the NFL for several weeks now…struggling too much with LAR, DEN, and HOU. They’re in a dogfight for the #1 seed, but they’ve lost to the two other contenders, so the pressure is on. I don’t think they’ll get that top seed…but they might.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dameon Pierce gone, and the Texans turn to Royce Freeman (11-51-0, 1-5-0/1) out of nowhere. Consider that the Texans were controlling this game with Royce Freeman as their lead back and no Cooks-Collins, but Moore-Dorsett at WR. Lovie gets to stay because of it…and Davis Mills should be their QB of the future (but he won’t be).
As far as Freeman goes…nothing impressive. He’s been ‘done’ for a few years. Not sure what happened to him. Terrible matchup with Tennessee Week 16.
-- Jeff Driskel (2-4 for 8 yards, 4-8-0) worked so well Week 14, so it only made sense that Houston would cut his touches/snaps in about half and it be ineffectual in Week 15. He will be part of the plan Week 16 but hard to trust for those who are looking at him as a TE (where eligible).
-- I’m mad that Chris Moore (4-42-0/8) didn’t workout big for PPR Week 15, but I can’t be too mad because he got the bigger targets that I expected (had 2-3 more negated by penalty). Coverage was good and then Davis Mills missed a couple easy shots in there too.
Moore will lead the team in targets again this week, but he’s in a frigid game at Tennessee Week 16…not optimal.
-- Sixth game in-a-row for Isiah Pacheco (15-86-0, 1-11-0/1) with 13 or more carries in a game…and third in-a-row with 66 or more rushing yards in a game. He’s the main carry guy…and Week 16 is going to be a cold weather, more run heavy situation -- good for Pacheco.
Jerick McKinnon (10-52-1, 8-70-1/8) could/should be OK Week 16 in the short passing game + pushing for 7-10 rushing attempts. McKinnon has back-to-back 30+ PPR scoring games.
-- The Kadarius Toney (1-5-0/1) fanfare, fervor has died out. One target/5 snaps here upon return from missing games due to his hamstring. He’s FF-dead, it appears, until 2023.
-- Can you have Week 16 confidence in a KC-DST that couldn’t handle the Texans? It might be that, but based on the past few Davis Mills starts, the Texans aren’t a gimmie matchup. In this nice season-ending schedule stretch for KC, Week 16 vs. Seattle was an outlier…because Geno Smith is good. It’s not a favorable/fertile matchup. Now, the bitter cold might draw it into a good matchup hope for FF but in general it’s an average/below average matchup. Plan accordingly.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Quitoriano
30 = Akins
27 = Ogunbowale
24 = R Freeman
12 = Rex B
48 = McKinnon
27 = Pacheco
