2022 Week 15: Bills 32, Dolphins 29 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
My main takeaway from this game was: Buffalo as the favorite, at home in the cold and eventual snow, with Tua Tagovailoa having issues the last few weeks…Buffalo was expected to handle Miami here. Instead, Miami took at and toe-to-toe with Buffalo all game.
Miami led 29-21 into the 4th-quarter but then the snow started to fall, and Buffalo girded up and tied the game, then won it with a field goal at the buzzer. I walked away from this live and rewatch thinking…Miami is right there with Buffalo. Arguably, on a neutral field/neutral weather, Miami is the best team in the AFC East.
Miami, however, falls to (8-6) with a three-game losing streak and they blew their chance at winning the division. Miami should be able to win at least two of their final 3 games to get to 10 wins and a wild card. Nine wins may get them bounced out of the playoffs due to tiebreakers, so getting to 10 wins is very key.
Buffalo rises to (11-3) and has clinched the AFC East. Now, they go for the #1 seed…in a race with KC. They have a fighting chance to get there…and if they end up tied with KC, then Buffalo wins the tiebreaker. My money is on Buffalo for the #1 seed, but if Cincinnati beats Buffalo Week 17…then it could be Cincy that sails right by them all to get the top seed.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most eye-opening player here…Raheem Mostert (17-136-0, 1-20-0/2)…a re-reminder of how good he is. He dominated the Bills. Miami should’ve ridden him more. They might do just that against Green Bay’s weak run defense in Week 16.
Jeff Wilson being active would temper expectations for Mostert, but this could be an RB1/2 setup for Mostert Week 16.
-- Tua (17-30 for 234 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) was under scrutiny going into this game…two bad-ish games the weeks prior. I thought Tua accounted for himself well considering the opponent and the weather. Facing Green Bay at home in more stable weather Miami may be where he gets back to his high accuracy ways.
Josh Allen (25-40 for 304 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT, 10-73-0) had a huge game, getting back on track with massive FF scoring events. Tough situation Week 16, however -- freezing cold, 25+ MPH winds at Chicago. Hard to see a big game Week 16, but I don’t know how you could ever bench him.
-- Important game, must win, division title on the line…Buffalo tells you what’s important to them for their backfield usage/touches…
Devin Singletary (13-42-0, 3-28-0/4)…16 touches.
James Cook (5-34-0, 2-5-1/3)…7 touches.
So, when they have this brutal weather game Week 16 with a lot of running needed -- Singletary will lead the way. But it may be so much run game that Cook gets 10+ touches and had RB3/flex value for sure.
-- Dawson Knox (6-98-1/8) is waking up…5.0 rec. (7.5 targets), 69.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the last two weeks. He started the season an (0/8)…he’s a (3/2) the past five weeks. But a terrible situation Week 16…Chicago tough on TEs, and wind and temps could be the worst of any game this week…which affects the WRS too.
Gabe Davis (4-56-0/6) started the season as a (3/2) but he’s been an (1/7) since. Week 16 conditions will likely deal him another single-digit output.
-- The Buffalo Bills-DST, that everyone (universally) keeps and never strays from…
Weeks 1-5 = #2 in FF PPG among DSTs
Weeks 6-15 = #18 in FF PPG among DSTs
In equal five-week blocks…
Weeks 1-5 = #2 scoring DST in that period.
Weeks 6-10 = #13
Weeks 11-15 = #18
This DST should be a good start in the deep freeze and huge winds, but what Justin Fields runs wild?
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Singletary
28 = J Cook
03 = Hines
45 = Mostert
14 = Ahmed
