2022 Week 15: Jaguars 40, Cowboys 34 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
When Dallas took a 27-10 lead with 5 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, I celebrated my Week 15 Best Bet (Dallas -4.0)…and celebrated the downfall of Trevor Lawrence. It was in the bag. Dallas looked so good…and Jacksonville did not look good -- all as most people might have expected in this game. But Week 15, was unlike any other week in NFL history…15-20-30+ point deficits in the 3rd-quarter were meaningless…in fact, huge deficits only made the team losing into an instant favorite to violently comeback and win…as teams like Minnesota, Cincinnati…and Jacksonville did in Week 15.
Jacksonville flipped a switch and suddenly Dallas was helpless…a 30-7 run in the span of 20+ minutes for Jacksonville for an OT win. I still don’t know how or why this happened…I cannot explain how teams could look so awful for a half+ and then instantly play perfect football and storm right back into games, happening multiple times in just this week alone, where the one team that was playing so dominant at first just suddenly couldn’t do anything right suddenly…like a divine intervention or something. I won’t try to explain what happened in this game, because I can’t -- but a Dak pass to his receiver in OT, a clutch 3rd-down conversion throw, with the ball hitting the WR’s hands low to the ground and the ball careening off his hands and popping right to defender Rayshawn Jenkins so he could just sprint for the game winning TD was a fitting/bizarre way to end or describe this game. It was indescribable…like most Week 15 comebacks/endings were.
Dallas falls to (10-4) and blows any real chance at catching the Eagles now. It’s wildcard city for Dallas…to go face the Bucs, I’m sure.
It was a HUGE win for Jacksonville, now (6-8) and just one game back of Tennessee…and with the Jags holding a tiebreaker over the Titans…and with Tennessee possibly having to go with Malik Willis the next week or two. Week 18 the Jags host Tennessee for the possible AFC South title. Unreal! Don’t you love football?
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- No more making fun of Trevor Lawrence (27-42 for 318 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT, 3-21-0) from here on in. Why? It’s too long an answer for this moment…I’ll explain/digest in the offseason. Lawrence is succeeding more than failing now, so I have to go with reality.
I have him moderately projected again Week 16, however. It’s not because I don’t like him, it’s two-fold:
(1) Facing the Jets defense is one of the worst things for a QB lately.
(2) That game could have rain all the way through the game. Kinda cold (for Florida based teams) and persistent rain -- not good for any QB for output.
If the weather changes, we’ll change projections with it. The forecast has jumped from rain all game, to clear, to maybe rain...we’ll have to watch and see.
-- Because I dismissed Trevor Lawrence all year, I missed out on having Zay Jones (6-109-3/8) on many FF teams. Some places we did pick him up as a roster flier several weeks ago out of desperation, and ‘boom’ he’s a sudden WR1 of the past month. Good for him, he deserves it. But for Week 16, he has the same issue Trevor might -- that Jets secondary + possible rain all game.
But he’s been so hot of late, I don’t know how in the world you could bench him…if the rain forecast persists. If the rain goes away, then it’s better…but still the Jets secondary.
Zay is a (5/8) this season…and a (4/1) the past five games.
-- Evan Engram (8-62-0/10) is FINALLY becoming the star he was always meant to be!!!
8.0 rec. (10.7 targets), 84.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past three weeks. A team has finally figured out the simple way to use Engram -- short pass with him on the move and then just let him go from there.
It only took 5 full seasons + 13 weeks into his 6th season to happen.
I am riding this all the way to the finish line. No regrets. I finally can be proud/confident in rolling Engram out as my starting TE.
Engram is a (4/10) this season…but a (3/0) the past three games.
-- Dak Prescott (23-30 for 256 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) has 2 interceptions thrown in three of his last 4 games. He’s throwing for TDs (9), but also a ton of picks (7) in that span. I don’t know why. He doesn’t look bad. His game ending pick here wasn’t his fault.
Dak is a (4/5) this season…but a (1/3) the past 4 games with the elevated pick counts. Facing Philly Week 16 isn’t an easy matchup to correct it in either.
-- The past two games…
5.0 rec. (7.5 targets), 67.0 yards, 1.0 TDs = Noah Brown
1.5 rec. (4.0 targets), 21.0 yards, 0.0 TDs = Michael Gallup
Brown is the #2 WR option for Dak…not Gallup, who has been a HUGE disappointment and waste of money. Tough matchup for Brown Week 16, however.
-- Rayshawn Jenkins (18 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 TD) had a game for the ages, but it’s a tally way out of his norm. It’s just a one-off.
-- Points allowed in games by Dallas the past 7 games (starting with their Week 8 game):
29-31-3-20-19-23-40 (23.6 PPG allowed)
Take away the two extremes = 24.4 PPG allowed in that span.
The Cowboys defense is not a shut down or ‘top’ DST.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Pollard
38 = Elliott
73 = Schultz
700 = Lamb
68 = Gallup
56 = Noah Brown
