2022 Week 15: Saints 21, Falcons 18 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This almost went exactly the way I expected.
I expected Desmond Ridder to struggle/be the worst debuting type QB of 2022…among QBs that had media/analyst class backing. And he did struggle.
I expected the Saints to take advantage of this Ridder issue and win comfortably…and they won, but barely.
The Saints jumped out 14-0, and I thought (watching live) that my -4.0 Saints bet was in the bag. New Orleans then proceeded to meander around and the Falcons stuck to their run game and the Saints couldn’t stop it and the Falcons cut the lead to 3 points with 7+ minutes remaining…then ATL quick stopped the Saints offense again, and got the ball back and were driving for the tie/win, but Drake London got stripped of the ball after a catch and the Saints were able to get the ball back and run the clock out. This was unnecessarily close.
Two things strike me off of this game…
1) The Saints really are poorly run, poorly executed. They should be so much better…they should be the NFC South leaders but they’re so pathetic that they can barely beat a Falcons team with a bad rookie QB, at New Orleans, with the season on the line. They really came close to losing this game, blowing a 14-0 head start.
2) Because this game ended close, the media won’t catch, doesn’t want to catch, just how bad Ridder is at this stage of his career. For more than a few outlets -- Ridder is their top-rated rookie QB.
I’m not trying to angle about ‘how they’re dumb’ here…because I’m anti-Ridder. I’m trying to get out of the ‘they’re dumb’ business, and I’ll expand on that this offseason (they are dumb, but it runs deeper…and is a thing we all need to consider for 2023+ Fantasy and handicapping). I’m more wanting to report/keep in front of us the context on how Falcons’ things should be projected with Ridder at QB, and how point spreads are made with ATL, etc. More on Ridder in a moment. Just know the media loves Ridder…because they’re supposed to. You’ll get little critique of him, yet.
The Saints and Falcons are now both (5-8); just one game out of first place. The Saints are really two games out because they’ve lost to TB twice already. But this division is so bad that everyone still has viable division title life. With the Bucs getting the Cardinals this week, a gift for TB to get to 7 wins…it’s gonna take both of these teams running the table to try and win the division -- and looking at their schedules it’s not impossible to dream it, but it’s unlikely. Both of these teams are likely ‘out’ of the playoffs…but still alive, today, still motivated for Week 16.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, Desmond Ridder (13-26 for 97 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-38-0) scouting…
EXACTLY how I expected. Fell right in-line with my January 2022 scouting study/report. Was similar to what both Ross Jacobs and I saw in the preseason. EXACTLY what I said he’d do/be like in his debut leading up to game day -- Ridder makes up his mind where he’s throwing before they clap hands to break the huddle.
Ridder is the perfect NFL QB…perfect in how he cons coaches. He’s of great character/work ethic and a leader personality -- that’s the easy con (on coaches). I’m sure he’s the first one in the building, last to leave kinda guy…along with 100 other QBs across the league.
The real con is, he’s a perfect practice QB…a great shorts and t-shirt worker…which is how ALL analysts are conned on QB scouting. Ridder has good mechanics and can deliver a solid pass to the place it's supposed to go…against ‘air’ as a defense, in warm-ups, in a walkthrough, in noncontact practices. But then the bullets fly for real, and Ridder has no real NFL skill/ability (at this stage) to read and adjust. He is a one-track mind robot thrower…and he threw no interceptions in this game, but was close to at least 4 picks, and two of them had pick-six potential.
I believe he is going to flame out, which is big news because most 2022 rookie/day three drafted QBs are hitting the NFL and look great, better than they did in college. But not Ridder…the #74 pick in the draft. It’s another hit for this dreadful Falcons offense/team. It’s a problem for Week 16-17-18 ahead, and a problem for Kyle Pitts’s and Drake London’s Dynasty value…because it would not shock me at all that the Falcons/Arthur Smith marries himself to this QB to show you how smart they are. They want someone to shut up and run their brilliant offense the way it’s called.
We’ll discuss the Ridder future more this offseason, but for Week 16…I say ‘attack’ this with your opposing DST. Baltimore Week 16…and a sleeper opportunity Week 17 vs. Arizona, perhaps.
-- What I was most excited about from this tape was the further advancement of Tyler Allgeier (17-139-1, 1-0-0-/1) as the lead RB for the Falcons…now, and for the future…and he’s making his case that he could be the top RB prospect from the 2022 NFL Draft, a case we made this summer.
Breece Hall is good…but he was in now way rounds of draft stock, and millions of dollars in payroll better than Allgeier-Pacheco. And look where we are today with those names. Quite a Dynasty Rookie Draft in 2022, for you Dynasty GMs, huh? Your support makes this possible for me to search the football globe for talent that others aren’t seeing/finding. Thank you.
You can get super excited about this great game, but for the immediate…for Week 16…it’s not so exciting. Not that Allgeier isn’t exciting, but him facing the Ravens run defense -- not a good matchup, in the freezing cold with Ridder at QB scaring no one. Could be 11-man boxes for Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson (14-52-1)…the split/RB-duo. In 2023, it will be an Allgeier lead with ____ RB in minor support. In Week 16 of 2022, it’s a 60/40 Allgeier/Patterson split.
-- Two Saints receivers popped Week 15…
Juwan Johnson (4-67-2/6) had the obvious 2-TD event to get excited about, and we’ve discussed him all season…back into the preseason. I think everyone is onboard with JJ now…it just took 16 weeks to get there…where people could trust…because he wasn’t a fantastical rookie player, no one was all that interested. Chig Okonkwo you dove right in on…Juwan Johnson, some people passed, especially after that one 0.0 game Week 12.
The one thing to note here -- these two TDs were throws to JJ about 10 yards away from the end zone, and then Juwan just being a boss and taking it around and through defenders for the score. He’s becoming a legit receiving game TE…someone who has a future, not just a cute 2022 moment. He’s a serious TE1 of the future…especially if the Saints can find a real QB.
Rashid Shaheed (3-95-1/4) hit the big play that I was foreseeing…and that got a few of you over Week 15. His momentum is building but they still aren’t giving into him as a real weapon totally…just a one-off special play guy more than a real receiver…but he’s starting to get some normal receiver targeting, where he would get none weeks ago.
I love both of these player’s trajectory going into Week 16…but they are playing at Cleveland Saturday, where it will be ‘feels like’ -15 to -20 below. Can’t get real FF-excited about that.
-- Another boring dud FF-game for Alvin Kamara (21-91-0, 2-13-0/2). He’s just not getting the TDs, not getting the targets/catches we’re all used to. In PPR, still, I don’t know how you bench him Week 16. He’s still ‘the guy’ there. David Johnson (4-12-0) looks fine but is a nobody for the Saints staff.
-- IDP notes…
Pete Werner (4 tackles) returned from several weeks out with an injury, and he went right into the starting lineup. He played 74% of the snaps. Kaden Elliss (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks) was so good in Werner’s place, but got put to a backup/rotational LB again.
Falcons rookie LB Troy Anderson (7 tackles) started for the first time since Week 6. He played well. He worked 82% of the snaps. Is he the forever starter now? I think so, but we’ll see. They’ve been fickle with him all season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Shaheed
27 = Olave
19 = Landry
34 = Kamara
18 = D Johnson
36 = Trautman
28 = Juwan
37 = CPatt
36 = Allgeier
30 = Byrd
