2022 Week 15: Lions 20, Jets 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This was a back and forth, close game throughout. The Jets scored a TD with 4+ minutes remaining to take a 17-13 lead. The Lions might have just one last drive to try and tie or win the game. Detroit did just that…they drove the down the field, got a to a 4th & inches play at midfield, and ran a pass play, a brilliant play call with the TE sprung wide open and Jared Goff tossed it to Brock Wright, who then rumbled down the field with the help of nice downfield blocking and scored to make it 20-17.
The Jets had 1:58 to try and tie or win it, and Zach Wilson hit a Hail Mary-ish 4th & long to get the Jets into position for a 58-yard FG with one second remaining. The kick was not close…ballgame…the Lions reach .500.
The right team won, because in reality the Lions outplayed the Jets and it felt like more of a Lions 24-14 type win/margin type game…but 20-17 was the end tally. The Jets played good defense and Zach Wilson hit a few prayer throws to keep them in it. Detroit played sound football, didn’t get many breaks, never panicked and won the game.
Detroit is now (7-7)…winners of six of their last 7 games…a half game out of the last wild card spot. Detroit can run the table of CAR-CHI-GB and get to 10 wins and a wild card. If they only get to 9 wins, then it’s going to come down to tiebreakers potentially and Detroit might get in.
The Jets fall to (7-7)...and now OUT of the wild card, a game behind the final playoff spot. A tougher schedule ahead with Jacksonville Week 16, winnable but with Wilson at QB it’s dicey. Then two tough road games at Seattle, at Miami. It’s looking more and more like a very viable NYJ team is going to miss the playoffs -- they did it to themselves, they went with Zach Wilson WAY too long this season.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching Zach Wilson (18-35 for 317 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) back in action was my primary study. Was there a change/improvement detected? We need to know, because he’s coming back again Week 16 it appears.
No…no change.
I thought from the live watch (watching six games at a time) that Wilson hit some nice passes/looked a lot better but watching the tape…it was just Wilson hopeful-chucking several passes downfield, throws ‘at’ a receiver…with the pass mostly having no business being thrown, really…and several of them landed. Like, I’d say 200+ passing yards of Wilson’s 317 passing yards were total nonsense/hope throws. There was no pick-apart-the-defense passing game. Everything was frenetic, usually inaccurate, or just a fling and a prayer -- same old Wilson, except several of the downfield throws landed…which happens from time-to-time.
Under 50% Comp. Pct. against a maligned pass defense with all the big plays being minor miracles/passes he shouldn’t have thrown, but they landed -- hard to get on board with that with any consistency ahead. It was his problem before…it’s still his problem.
Mike White has a shot to get clear for Week 16 TNF, but the odds are more likely he misses Week 16 and is hopefully clear Week 17.
-- With the change back to Zach Wilson, the Jets receiver numbers dropped…as expected. But also considering this was a weak Detroit pass defense, it’s a worse output in reality…
Garrett Wilson (4-98-0/9) led the way in targets and had a solid enough game, but it was more dicey downfield floaters and adjustment catches…not any pitch & catch work.
Elijah Moore (4-51-0/7) had a ‘meh’ game, as expected. Moore has played in a wasted year, and then he had to deal with more Wilson again here. Could’ve been a great opportunity versus the Detroit slot corners with Mike White, but Wilson at QB negated that. Some minor hope for Elijah vs. JAX Week 16, but it’s a WR3/4 or flex hope at best.
-- The Detroit run defense looks so good right now. They were a mild disaster to start the season, but now they’re one of the better-looking run defense units in the league. Thus, Zonovan Knight (13-23-0, 0-0-0/0) having such a weak performance here.
Knight also came up gimpy a few times, he should be fine for Week 16 but it’s a quick turnaround for TNF…so watch the reports. It’s a good matchup with Jacksonville otherwise.
An additional FF problem for Knight: Wilson doesn’t throw to the RBs often or smoothly, so Knight loses those PPR points while Mike White is out.
-- A note from the Detroit run game…
Jamaal Williams’s (13-33-0) hot FF run has been coming to an end…and another bad yards per carry effort and poor FF output here. Another game where he was in the 30s for snap share. 30%, 37%, 31% snap% for JW the past three games. The Lions are not as into him as they have been…because his output/efficiency is TERRIBLE…but does get short TDs.
Justin Jackson (6-16-0, 1-15-0/2) is the one creeping up in touches and snaps. JJ was in the rotation in the 1st-series and got the first goal-to-go carry in the game as well. They trust him on a level with Williams-Swift, just about, these days.
It’s nearly becoming a fairly equal snap count, three-way RB rotation now.
-- D.J. Chark (1-18-0/2) got shut down, as projected. These Jets outside corners are pretty wicked. Should be some trouble for Zay Jones or Christian Kirk in Week 16, anytime they’re the outside WR versus the time they are in the slot.
Chark will be back to WR2/3 hopes for Week 16 at Carolina…but Jaycee Horn is not an easy CB to battle either. It’s a weak WR2 projection lean WR3 for Week 16.
-- Jameson Williams (0-0-0/1) broke free deep on a route, in his limited playing time (13 snaps), and Goff tried to hit him for a 50+ TD, and JW was open by a yard+, but Goff under threw it and it got knocked away as it was arriving to Jameson.
All that aside, the FF news on JW here is…another low snap, low target, barely involved game. We won’t get to see the real Jameson capabilities until 2023, it looks like.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = M Carter
30 = Knight
47 = Conklin
32 = Uzomah
27 = Swift
22 = Justin Jackson
21 = Jamaal W
