2022 Week 13: Giants 20, Commanders 20 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This was a key game for both teams…both teams fighting for a wildcard spot. The Giants in pretty good playoff shape if they had won…and Washington would have been in bad shape with a loss -- and then it ends up in a tie, which is a small advantage to NYG, big picture.
For the game itself, the Giants should’ve won this game a hundred times over. They were the better team and had numerous chances to win this…but ridiculous penalties, dropped picks, a missed FG at the buzzer…it just wasn’t meant to be.
The Giants are now (7-4-1) and are the current #6 seed. Their problem is they have no quality wins in the NFC when it comes down to tiebreakers (and with this tie, WSH is their only tiebreaker fear). If they don’t beat Washington in their Week 15 rematch, then NYG might fall out of the wild card at the finish line. We project NYG to (9-7-1) in the end, and a wild card spot…unless they lose to Washington Week 15.
Wahsington is now (7-5-1) …with no quality/wildcard tiebreaking wins either. They have a must-win situation vs. NYG Week 15. We project them to lose Week 15 and finish (8-8-1).
The team that was destroyed by this tie…the Detroit Lions, who has beaten both these teams and could’ve gotten to 9 wins to possibly tie both these teams, and then get in over them with their tiebreaker wins. Now, (5-7) Detroit needs to run the table to get to 10 wins, most likely, to get into the wild card over either of these teams…or hope they both collapse to the finish and neither NYG or WSH hits 9 wins.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The first note is a compliment, which is usually the kiss of death the following week for this player (whenever I compliment)…this was as good a game as I’ve seen Daniel Jones (25-31 for 200 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-71-0) play.
He’s still not great but he’s not terrible anymore/right now. He’s solid and he’s running the ball very well/smartly, and he’s a dangerous runner at his size/speed. His mobility, on purpose, is a weapon.
When Jones runs the ball 10 or more times in a game in his career (which is all 2022 games), NYG is 3-0-1.
When Jones runs the ball 9 or more times in a game (over his career), NYG is 6-2-1.
Running the ball 8 or fewer times in his career, NYG is 13-28-0.
He’s a legit FF play week-to-week, for those struggling at QB, because he’s becoming an increasing running threat/output. They need him to run on purpose, and he is this season.
-- Jones seems to have an ever-changing group of receivers to throw to. He now has a healthy, settled top three looks…
1) Darius Slayton (6-90-0/8) is playing terrific football. Why this guy was buried for years, I have no idea. He’s the clear #1.
2) Isaiah Hodgins (5-44-1/6) is moving into a strong #2 role…a professional WR who was stolen off the Bills practice squad and has become a legit NFL starter. He’s long and lean and runs smart routes and has reliable hands. Why the Bills pushed Gabe Davis and suppressed Hodgins, I have no idea either.
3) TE Daniel Bellinger (5-24-0/5) is back from injury and right back as the starter and main TE. Takeaway his last game played prior to this game, one where he left early with injury, and Bellinger’s last two full games as starting TE has produced: 5.0 rec. (5.0 targets), 30.0 yards, 0.50 TDs. The rookie is improving rapidly and is a reliable enough target for Jones. Bellinger is a TE1/2 hopeful this week…any given week.
-- Finally, for once, during the Taylor Heinicke (27-41 for 275 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) 2022 era, WRs other than Terry McLaurin saw good action. Curtis Samuel (6-63-07, 3-23-0) and Jahan Dotson (5-54-1/9) both had their most active game in a while here -- but it still looks to me like they are not what Heinicke is ever looking for, they’re more something he gets pressured into off a scramble most times. I don’t think this is the start of an uptick for either WR. They are random events weekly.
-- Brian Robinson (21-96-0, 2-15-0/2) is averaging 20.0 carries per game the past 4 games…he is the clear lead back Washington wants. Antonio Gibson (9-39-0, 2-20-0/4) is a lesser, helper/relief RB to BRob.
-- A couple NYG IDP notes…
The Giants getting DE Azeez Ojulari (1 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) back this game was huge. He is a major pass rush machine/prospect. He was disrupting all over this game.
Ojulari coming back helped Kayvon Thibodeaux (5 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 QB hits) record his 2nd sack of the season. Those two look pretty good as the edge starters for NYG. That’s a real upgrade for the defense going into the big game with Philly Week 14. Thibodeaux has 7 QB hits in his last two games.
CB Nick McCloud (8 tackles, 2 PDs) has been standing out…a long, lean CB that has started the last two weeks when Adoree Jackson went down and out. He’s averaging 8.0 tackles, 1.0 PDs per game in his two starts…but the thing that stands out to me is -- he’s playing all over the place. I see him at traditional CB…some slot corner…some free safety-like looks…some OLB…sometimes way up on the line like he’s going to rush the backfield. Could be a decent play for some IDP situations, until Jackson returns.
-- This was the 6th game in a row that the Commanders defense held their opponent to 21 or fewer points in a game. Daniel Jones again, Brock Purdy, Deshaun Watson their next 3 games after a Week 14 bye. Not a bad set of matchups, potentially. Not amazing, but on the board as DST1 potential each week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Bellinger
30 = Vannett
08 = Myarick
77 = McLaurin
67 = Dotson
56 = C Samuel
42 = Gibson
40 = BRob.
02 = Jon Williams
