2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Patriots 45, Chargers 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Not sure I can add any fresh analysis that the final score did not already make clear on this game.
A punt return TD. A blocked field goal TD. The Patriots win a game 45-0 where they passed the ball for 69 yards. This one WAS as bad as the score indicated.
The only shocking news was the Chargers did NOT fire Anthony Lynn after this game. What does a guy gotta do to get fired around here? How will Lynn top this coaching gem? Tune in next week as the Chargers host the Falcons.
It’s OK for LAC to dump Lynn now, the have my blessing -- I got my ‘under’ win total bet of ‘under’ 7.5 wins on LAC in the books. You’re free to try to win games now.
The Chargers are (3-9) and they should win at least one more game this year, but with the Chargers committing to Lynn through the end of the season…losing out from here is definitively on the table!
New England won’t die…they are now (6-6) and winners of four of their last 5 games. I don’t care if the Browns win out, win the AFC North, and go on to win the Super Bowl – Bill Belichick has to be the leader for Coach of the Year honors this season. It’s simply remarkable what he’s done minus Brady and Edelman/with Cam…especially if he gets to the playoffs somehow.
We project the Pats to go (8-8), and that won’t get them into the playoffs. Just short. They face the Rams and Bills in the next three weeks…the #2-3 best teams in the NFL. The wrong time to catch those teams needing to find three wins the next 4 games – but if anyone can do it it’s Belichick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… Use this Justin Herbert (26-53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) bad stat line to go buy him Dynasty, if you’ve been wanting in…if the trading window is still open in your league. If he meanders to the finish line, output-wise – then we’re all over this for the Dynasty offseason.
The QBs who matter for FF 2021 and into the future…
Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray
If you don’t own at least one, you’re not set for the future. I don’t want to hear about ‘I hate my RB depth’. You either have one of these 4 QBs or you’re playing fantasy from behind into the future. You should hope to have two of them for your Dynasty team, but having one is of utmost importance.
Dak and Deshaun and Russ…you’re settling short, but they’re in the next wave behind the first tier.
This QB group of four is ‘important’ in 4 points per pass TD leagues.
It is ‘extremely’ important in 6 points per pass TD leagues.
We will be discussing these four QB’s valuations and trade potentials all offseason with the FFM Dynasty Offseason content, starting in January 2021.
Who Herbert’s coach is in 2021 changes the landscape of his valuation into the future.
-- Another Chargers rookie is busting out…LB Kenneth Murray (14 tackles, 12 solo, 1.0 sack, 2.0 TFLs) put in a game here that was a glimpse into the future of a top 5 IDP linebacker for next week and ahead for many years.
This tape was terrific. Murray was planted in the middle because of all the injuries to guys otherwise – no more roaming from inside-to-outside. And when all the other LAC players seemed to be mailing it in…Murray was playing turned up to ‘10’ all game. He had his 12 solo tackles starting the 4th-quarter.
Sure, the Pats ran the ball for 165 yards, but they also ran it 43 times…for just 3.8 yards per carry. I think Anthony Lynn found his answer in the middle…but I’m sure he’ll turn back to failure Denzel Perryman if he gets the chance. If Perryman or Kyzir White are active ahead, then you can be skeptical of what Lynn will do with Murray for IDP. But in 2021, Lynn won’t be there to mess it up.
What Murray showed here was elite middle linebacker play. He was very hard to block, and sometimes he just shoved blockers away with brute force while standing almost still. You rarely see Murray getting blown backwards on a one-on-one block. He was hammering ballcarriers too…not just ‘in the neighborhood’ or gently wrapping/lassoing them to the ground – no, it was grown ass man tackles.
I think his time may have arrived. Be careful Lynn doesn’t muck it up by moving him to OLB type play in the next few weeks.
-- I thought Damien Harris (16-80-0, 1-15-0/1) was moved into a split with Sony Michel (10-35-0, 1-23-0/1) this game, just looking at the final numbers. I was hoping Michel wouldn’t even be active or play much the ROS, as a Harris holder in some places…but Michel was alive and well here.
However, watching the game – it’s still Harris as ‘the guy’, but then losing all the FF-goodness to others (Cam takes all the rushing TDs, and White takes the catches)…BUT he’s not ‘splitting’ with Michel, per se…not in this game. Michel got decent touch totals because this game became a joke and no need to run Harris 5,000 times.
I can’t trust Harris for big FF numbers because of the Cam/PPR issues, BUT I think he is going to be the 15+ carry a game guy for whatever it is worth.
Since becoming ‘the man’, Harris is averaging 71.2 rushing yards per game…a 1,139 yard 16-game season trend with 5.1 yards per carry. He’s low key one of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
We’ll be discussing his 2021+ future and dynasty valuation all offseason as well.
-- Josh Kelley (0-0-0, 2-3-0/2) was much more coveted than Damien Harris to start FF 2020, but look where we are now. Fallen behind Kalen Ballage.
A new coach headed to LAC in 2021, so a reset and rethink on his FF-valuation is coming.
-- Donald Parham (2-21-0/4) had 4 targets in this game…Hunter Henry (1-5-0/2) had two. It was probably due to the game flow, but Parham is getting a little more involved as we go…such a huge, unique target for Herbert.
He’s moving up the Dynasty Stash ranking a little bit this week on the next update.
-- The Patriots-DST is rolling, but rocky outlook to the FF-finish…at LAR, at MIA, BUF. Only the Miami game stands out as a great one. You can cross your fingers on the Rams matchup. Could be OK. It’s a huge game on national TV.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Ekeler
27 = Ballage
03 = Kelley
41 = H Henry
19 = Parham
33 = Dam Harris
22 = Michel
19 = J White
