2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Titans 30, Ravens 24 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Ravens had to win this game. The fact that they lost it, or that it was even close is a huge statement on how they’re swirling down the drain as this season wears on.
They had to win this game…
Facing the Titans team that shockingly upset their Super Bowl favorite season last season.
Coming off losses to Pittsburgh and New England their prior three games…they needed to turn the tide heading into the Steelers rematch Week 12.
The Titans came in missing two top O-Linemen and two starting defenders (and lost their best defensive player in-game). And the Titans defense was terrible before all that.
The Ravens converted 60% of their 3rd-downs in this game but were out-rushed and out-passed and they just didn’t answer the bell/win in the end. The Titans weren’t stellar, but they pulled it out in the end. Baltimore even had the ball first in OT…and did nothing, then allowed a game-winning score on Tennessee’s first OT drive. There is something going wrong in Baltimore…that elite team from 2019 has completely disappeared.
The Ravens are now (6-4), losers of three of their last 4 games…all tough losses to good teams. The ball just isn’t bouncing the Ravens’ way right now…on top of their other issues. If they lose at Pittsburgh this week, they fall to (6-5) and might be worried about making the playoffs. However, they have a cake schedule after Week 12, one where they should win out (5 games) and wind up (11-5) and get a top wild card spot.
The Titans aren’t great, but you have to say they are better than the Ravens now – beating them twice in 2020 in very high-profile, urgent games. Tennessee is (7-3) and can really make a statement with a win at Indy this week, a chance to take control of the AFC South. You have to favor Indy at home, and then Tennessee has a nice schedule ahead to allow them to finish (11-5), but they will probably stumble against some bad team – so, we project a (10-6) finish…assuming they lose to Indy this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I gotta start with this… Dez Bryant (4-28-0/5) looked terrific. Looks like he hasn’t lost a step…actually, he may have gained a step.
I’m used to seeing, in 2020, AB or Gronk make this type of comeback and seeing them look a bit stiff…and taking a few games to kinda get less rusty/stiff but still aren’t their old selves. When I saw Dez take a bubble screen in this game and make two guys miss and run past them for a moderate gain – it instantly got my attention.
Re-watching this game, Dez took three bubble screens and looked like a physical specimen juking past or pushing around smaller DBs trying to halt him. I was wildly impressed. Totally shocked, honestly.
How about this sentence… Dez Bryant is the #1 WR for the Ravens, right now. Not even a debate.
It’s certainly not Marquise Brown (0-0-0/3), who is now droppable in normal-sized roster redraft.
Dez Bryant matters for fantasy.
Welcome to 2020.
-- The question is, for Dez, will Lamar Jackson (17-24 for 186 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 13-51-0) throw it to him? I’m not sure…you never know what Lamar is going to do besides force it to Mark Andrews…but he may start forcing it to Dez.
Lamar flopped in a big spot here. He wasn’t bad, just not the ‘Lamar’ circa 2019 they needed right here, right now. This was a cake matchup and Lamar scored 14-16 FF pts. Not good enough. He's playing fine/solid enough football -- just that 'wow' Lamar is gone, and I'm not sure he ever returns.
Great matchups for Lamar ahead, but I’m not sure he’s going to fully capitalize on them.
-- A.J. Brown (4-62-1/7) was held down some by the great CB duo of Jimmy Smith-Marlon Humphrey…and AJB is what teams focus everything on because Corey Davis (5-113-0/7) doesn’t scare anyone.
Brown didn’t have his first catch until midway through the 3rd-quarter, but then he started to put on a show of what his gift is – his ability after the catch. He’s like a top 5 fantasy power RB when he gets the ball…he can take 5-yard crossing pattern throws and turn them into gold because no one can hardly tackle him.
This was a bad matchup, and he has one again this week with Xavier Rhodes…but then again, AJB might not have a bad matchup ever…per se.
I also mention this because Jimmy Smith shut down Diontae Johnson a few weeks ago, and when he was on AJB he had him tied up here too…Smith is on Diontae Week 12, most likely.
-- There’s an odd shift taking place at TE for the Titans…
Jonnu Smith (4-20-1/6) is the starter but has been under 33 yards in six straight games.
Jonnu is getting some of his thunder stolen by Anthony Firkser (4-33-0/5), who is playing 40-50% of the snaps now, some in two TE sets with Jonnu.
I didn’t believe in the Firkser uprising, but now I see it…and starting to hear about it – Tannehill looks comfortable throwing the ball to Firkser in times of trouble. He looks for Jonnu near the end zone, but looks to Firkser as a kinda roided up Adam Humphries pitch-and-catch throw.
Season to date:
30 catches, 49 targets, 338 yards = Jonnu
29 catches, 39 targets, 282 yards = Firkser
-- Hey, I think finally John Harbaugh agrees with me…J.K. Dobbins (15-70-1, 2-15-0/2) should be the #1 RB for this team, with clear delineation/touches away from Gus-Ingram. And that’s exactly what happened in this game.
Dobbins ran the ball 15 times, Gus 3 times, Ingram 2 times.
Just when you’re ready for the RB1 escapades to begin…Dobbins tests positive for COVID for Week 12. In redraft, use it as a buying opportunity. Dobbins will be an RB1 the rest of the season after Week 12.
…unless Harbaugh switches back to RBBC, which is always possible.
Dobbins looked REALLY good here in this game.
-- FYI, D’Onta Foreman (1-1-0) got one carry this game (on one snap), but he was the only other RB to get a carry – because if Henry goes down, I believe Foreman will be the lead ballcarrier. Jeremy McNichols (1-2-0/1) will get some work as a PPR back, but I think Foreman is the Henry handcuff for the final FF stretch…for those who that matters to.
-- TEN star LB Jayon Brown (3 tackles, 1 TFL) got hurt in this game, and is now out for the season. A huge blow to the team, and to his IDP owners.
Note…if David Long (DNP-COVID) is injected in as the starter in his place, it could be a nice little run for Long to the finish. He’s a tackle machine. I’m just not 100% sure they’ll for sure turn it over to him. I think they will, but…
-- BAL CB Marcus Peters (3 tackles) has decided to retire from football again…without telling anyone or actually walking away from the team. He ‘got paid’ and is now just drifting around the field aimlessly (like he did for KC…and then for LAR…and now here, once he got paid). QBs are posting a 66.7% Comp. Pct. on him this year…a career worst. Teams are attacking him because they feat Smith-Humphrey, and Peters is not responding…which is another reason why the Ravens-DST is faltering the last several weeks.
DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG in Weeks 13-16 should help boost the Ravens-DST ahead.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Dobbins
13 = Gus
07 = J Hill
06 = Ingram
48 = Snead
47 = Mq Brown
35 = Dez
55 = Henry
12 = McNichols
01 = Foreman
52 = Jonnu
44 = Swaim
28 = Firkser
