NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Every time that I’ve scouted Michael Pittman Jr.’s work from 2019, for our Senior Bowl and Combine previews, I always walk away thinking he is the best WR prospect I’ve seen for this draft. The size, the movement skills, the routes and hands – it’s all effortless, like a high efficiency robot. Guys his size shouldn’t move so swiftly, effortlessly.

There are wide receivers who measured faster at the NFL Combine. There are other big WR prospects in this draft who can really move and are great/better measured athletes (like Chase Claypool and Denzel Mims). What I believe Pittman Jr. has over all of the top WR prospects in 2020 – is his 0-to-60 speed/movement skills, combined with his size…no one else can match it. Pittman Jr. looks like he is gracefully shot out of a cannon off the snap. He can effortlessly get by one-on-one coverage deep, if the corners comes up close on him…or when the corner lays back, Pittman Jr. can cut sharply on a shorter route and be an a big bodied, easy pitch and catch option for the QB…like a bigger, 2x more athletic Michael Thomas for Drew Brees.

Pittman Jr. has the rare ability to be such a physical size/speed package, he can both play physical or play a speed-timing game. There are some really nice WR prospects in this draft that Pittman Jr. compares to – WRs who are great medium deep weapons or are smart ‘get open’ reliable WRs, but Pittman is the best (I’ve seen so far) at having high-end talent in either style.

For example, take football America’s #1 WR right now CeeDee Lamb. Pittman Jr. can play Lamb’s style – using athleticism and smarts to find pockets in the zone to get open and be a reliable option. Pittman can do all the back shoulder and timing patterns just like Lamb. The thing is…Pittman Jr. is better in every aspect than Lamb in what Lamb is known for. Pittman Jr. is just physically bigger, presents a much bigger target/catch radius and he’s quicker with his feet to get open on NFL corners than Lamb. Plus, Pittman Jr. offers more size and ability in the red zone as well.

How and why CeeDee Lamb is rated some distance ahead of Michael Pittman Jr. by NFL Draft analysts, I have no idea.

Probably the biggest factor swaying/hiding scouts from ‘seeing’ Pittman is that he didn’t play on a big stage – USC has fallen off the map recently and didn’t really play in any big TV games this season. In a bigger/higher-profile matchup with Notre Dame, Pittman only put up 4 catches for 29 yards…not an attention getting event.

I think Pittman is ‘hiding’ from scouts because, in part, he played with such poor quarterback play early in the 2019 season. USC started freshman Kedon Slovis, and he looked a bit wobbly out of the gates. Then Matt Fink was pressed into duty against two big opponents (Utah and Washington), and Fink is terrible, so it didn’t help create amazing highlights for Pittman (though he did go 10-232-1 against Utah). When the freshman Slovis returned as starter midseason, and he started settling in – guess what? Pittman’s numbers started to race.

We’ll look at Pittman’s semi-shocking numbers with the different QBs in the next section, but just note – it’s a lot harder for scouts to see ‘it’ with Pittman working on a mediocre team with wobbly QB play…than if Pittman were on LSU in 2019, where he would have made Justin Jefferson look like a day three draft WR prospect by comparison. But we’ll never really know that for sure…so we can only speculate. I think Pittman Jr. would have been the #1 ranked (by analysts) WR prospect for this draft had he played for LSU in 2019.

I think Pittman Jr. is a great WR prospect, but the perception of him was watered down into just ‘good’ by playing on a mediocre West Coast team with a QB carousel. He’s got all the ability to do what Lamb-Jeudy-Higgins-Jefferson do…only he’s 2+ inches taller and 20+ pounds thicker and is more graceful about it all at the same time.

My one big fear on Pittman Jr. was wondering if having a semi-famous, ex-notable NFL running back father made Pittman Jr. a more pampered, California cool prospect who wouldn’t find a ‘next level’ in the grind of the NFL. My fears on that were assuaged. Pittman Jr. was team captain in 2019. He has been praised by coaches for leadership and quality of character. He overcame a troubling stuttering issue in grade school and is now a very smooth speaker in interviews and at the podium at the NFL Combine. He was also one of 3 finalists for the Witten Award in college – honoring the players who did the most community work, acts of service, etc. in all of college football.

Pittman is no pampered diva.

Pittman might be the best WR prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Michael Pittman Jr., Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Possible data trend of interest/foretelling…

Let’s compare 2019 games when Pittman worked with a freshman rookie and his backup the first seven games of the year compared to his final six games where the freshman QB returned/started getting his ‘sea legs’ under him…

6.1 rec., 85.6 yards, 0.71 TDs per game = Pittman’s first 7 games of 2019 season

9.7 rec., 114.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game = Pittman’s final 6 games of 2019 season

Pittman’s final six games, trended to a 13-game season…126 catches, 1,486 yards, 13 TDs…he would have led the NCAA in catches with that tally and been #3 in yards.

Pittman had a fine 2019 as it was, but it might have been more magical if he had a better QB group to work with…like the Lamb-Jeudy-Jefferson group all did.

Pittman returned 6 punts in his career…one of them for a TD.

Pittman had six 140+ yard games in his college career. By comparison, the other top WR prospects had the following counts of 140+ yard games in their careers:

9 times = CeeDee Lamb (playing with two #1 pick QBs and a 3rd QB who will go top 75 this year)

6 times = Michael Pittman

3 times = Tee Higgins

2 times = Denzel Mims

2 times = Chase Claypool

1 time = Jerry Jeudy

1 time = Henry Ruggs

What Pittman accomplished on a not-so-hot offense/team over the years is pretty stout, rates well/better than most of the top WR prospects in this draft.

2020 NFL Combine Measurables…

6’4.0”/223, 9.25” hands, 32.5” arms

4.52 40-time, 4.14 shuttle, 6.96 three-cone

36.5” vertical, 13 bench press, 10’1” broad jump

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Michael Pittman Jr. Most Compares Within Our System:

This is a great comp table of names, and I love the Andre Johnson comp – just a big, technically sound, potentially dominant WR. There are many nice parallels with Sutton-Golladay as well…and both of them were vastly underrated in their draft class at the draft but are arguably the best of each of their classes in hindsight. Might Pittman be headed that way as well? 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

Pittman was a 2nd-3rd round projection going into the NFL Combine. He didn’t put up any ‘wow’ numbers there…just nice across the board. The smarter scouts are clueing into Pittman as a lethal NFL WR prospect, so I expect him to be a 2nd-rounder…even though he should be a 1st-rounder. But he didn’t go to Alabama or play against Alabama or play in any CFB playoff games, so there goes millions out his pocket because of that great way of mainstream scouting emotion pining for the more visible, hive mind top guys -- Lamb-Jeudy-Jefferson-Ruggs-Higgins…all of which who are not clearly better than Pittman.

If I were an NFL GM, I could build a war machine at WR for the future with Claypool-Pittman as my duo of 2nd-rounders. I’d plan on it if I was so inclined…they are a bargain. 

NFL Outlook:   

Pittman has a chance to be really good right away, if he gets into a place with an accurate QB who runs an up-tempo offense. Pittman can be a more athletic, bigger, faster Chris Godwin or Michael Thomas like a QB’s BFF option. 

One way or the other, Pittman will be a starter quickly in the league and be a very productive WR…if not, it’s because he landed with a terrible offense/team like the Jets or Giants or Chargers. 

3/6/2020