NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: SAF Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne

FS/SS grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

It is near impossible to accurately scout Kyle Dugger for the 2020 NFL Draft. I mean…playing at Lenoir-Rhyne…facing the likes of Marsh Hill and WISE and St. Augustine’s…how do you put his work against those programs into any relatable NFL context? 

Do we rely on his Senior Bowl week? Do we rely on his Combine times? The answer is both…we’re going to have to. It’s all we got. 

Let’s take these three scouting factors and see what we can glean from them – his small college play, his Senior Bowl, and his Combine. 

#1) Lenoir-Rhyne time…

All I can say about watching his tape in a few regular season games… He’s obviously the biggest, best athlete on the field. I mean he’s got an NFL body…and he’s facing really good high school players, essentially. He dominated his level of play for the most part. Not off the charts but enough to where it was obvious.

I mean, he did win the 2019 Cliff Harris Award (the small college Defensive Player of the Year) in a season where he only played 7 games.

All I can say is…he looked the part of ‘dominant’, physically, at his level of play. He was a hitter and blew up a lot of ballcarriers at his whim…as safety/linebacker/whatever he wanted to do. He also returned a couple punts for a TD in one game as well. A man against boys.

#2) His Senior Bowl trip

Here’s where Dugger starts to make his move – he fit in just fine at the Senior Bowl. The moment wasn’t too big, and he held his own. He was a starter for the South team…and that’s saying something for a game usually beholden/kissing up to SEC players even if they are lower rated prospects. If I ran that event – I’d kiss up to the SEC too, but note that small school guys like this getting a ‘start’ in such a prestigious event…not normal, which is telling (of at least what the NFL coaches coaching him thought).

Dugger started the game as an outside linebacker but also played a lot of safety. He wants to be a safety. He’s listed as a safety, but some see him as an OLB/SAF hybrid. I get it either way for him, but strong safety seems to make more sense.

Dugger led all defenders in the game with 7 total tackles and tied for the most solo tackles (5) in the game. He also had a nice pass breakup as well.

Dugger showed in practices and in the game – he belonged, and then some.

#3) His NFL Combine trip.

6’0.7”/217 is pretty stout for a safety. Huge 10 3/8” hands. A sweet 4.49 40-time at that size. A very athletic 42.0” vertical and 11’2” broad jump – high end power/leg feats, and very much NFL athletic.

He’s an NFL athlete through and through. Not just NFL-worthy, but kinda high-end for his size and his position.

Dominant in his level of play.

Impressed at the Senior Bowl.

Was high-end at the Combine times/drills.

What else is there to say?

He’s a legit prospect who will likely only get better with more NFL time/coaching. He projects as a big-time hitter and fast enough to cover in the passing game.

Comparing him to Grant Delpit and Jeremy Chinn…Dugger is by far the better tackler/hitter, and the one who could be a true 4-3 OLB in the NFL of the bunch. In coverage…Chinn’s the best, then Delpit and then Dugger, but that’s not a slam on Dugger…he’s good here too, just behind those guys.

Kyle Dugger, Through the Lens of Our SAF Scouting Algorithm:

67 career punt returns…6 punt return TDs.

8.7 tackles per game in his best season – 2017 (10 games). 

10 career picks, 164 INT return yards, and a TD.

36 career PDs, 6.5 TFLs…he played more 2nd-level/pass coverage than rushing the backfield. 

2020 NFL Combine Data:

6’0.7”/217, 10 3/8” hands, 32 7/8” arms

4.49 40-time, 1.65 10-yd

17 bench reps, 42” vertical, 11’2” broad jump

The Historical SAF Prospects to Whom Kyle Dugger Most Compares Within Our System:

Dugger mostly comps with guys who made it to the NFL and more 2nd-3rd-4th-round pick guys. 

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0.

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college SS/FS prospects, with a focus on which SS/FS prospects went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL SS/FS's had in common in college, that most other SS/FS prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.0+ in our system is where we start to take a SS/FS prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL-successful college SS/FS prospects scored 8.0+ in our system, and most of the NFL-superior FS/SSs pushed ratings more in the 9–10.0+ levels overall. Future NFL busts will sneak into the 8.0+ rating range from time to time.

TACKLE/STRENGTH METRIC -- A combination of physical measurables and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the SS/FS as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, forced fumbles, and physical hits to separate a WR from the ball. It also gives some insight into the "toughness" of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

SPEED/COVERAGE METRIC -- A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements as well as college performance. A unique measuring system to look for SS/FS prospects that profile for superior coverage skills and abilities.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

It looks like the 1st-round is out of the running. More likely he goes #45-75 overall. I’d guess 2nd-round with his Senior Bowl and measurables from the Combine. 

If were an NFL GM, if I was in the market for a safety…I’d watch to see if Dugger falls to the 3rd-round, but I’d likely pass because I see some late round safety prospects I like in the same talent range as Dugger.

NFL Outlook:   

He should be a useful/productive NFL safety or outside linebacker, and even as good as a Pro Bowl player at some point. He’s a good prospect and should be useful/fine. 

4/6/2020