NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I’m not sure why or how D’Andre Swift was tapped as the universal #1 RB prospect for analysts in Jan.-Feb. of the NFL Draft process, but he is. Jonathan Taylor has swooped in and started taking the #1 spot for some of the analysts since the Combine, but most scouts and analysts still have Swift #1…or worst case #2 RB prospect in the class.

I suspect Swift will struggle to be in our top five RB prospects by the time the draft goes off. I do not see a top 1-2-3 RB prospect here. I know he will be drafted/ranked that highly, but I don’t know why.

I mean, Swift had some solid enough seasons at Georgia but not any ‘wow’ type output. He never beat up on Alabama or Clemson in his career to have a ‘moment’ for scouts to worship. He never had a big game in the CFB playoffs or in a bowl game otherwise. In fact, Swift has played in two playoff games and two January 1st bowls and his tally in those four games: 17 carries for 35 yards rushing, total. He was a sparsely used 3rd-wheel RB in 2017. He had 8 carries for 12 yards against Texas in his bowl game in the 2018 season and left early in his 2019 bowl versus Georgia…1 carry for 2 yards.

If you ask people why Swift is the best RB in the class…you get a generic answer like ‘he’s really tough’ and for some he’s ‘Alvin Kamara-like’.

Really, if I were to explain my position on Swift…I would say ‘go watch the Notre Dame 2019 tape’. If you watch him in that game (a game against a top 20 CFB defense in 2019 season) and you still walked away thinking he was the best in class…then we have nothing else to speak about. We don’t see things the same way. It’s on YouTube, chopped up to just his plays…take a watch and then come back to read the rest of this report.

What I saw on that tape would scare me to death on Swift. The Notre Dame defenders all looked faster than Swift. They caught him at/behind the line of scrimmage often. He looked stuck in mud while the Fighting Irish front seven looked like they were shot out of a cannon by comparison. What I saw in the Notre Dame game can also be seen against Florida and Auburn in 2019 – when you make Swift have to go side-to-side and/or stop and start in the flow, he’s pretty well done. He doesn’t have the feet to be able to evade NFL level tacklers at a higher level…kinda similar (though Swift is better) to the problem David Montgomery has – fine enough when they are going straight and they can quick jab step away from a guy, but if you need them to make major adjustments from tacklers and/or stop motion due to a jammed hole and then shift and race 2-3 yards over and outrun defenders and make plays – it’s just not happening.

With Swift you have to keep him as a one cut, plant foot and go straight as a runner. He’s not a magical/highly gifted/uniquely constructed by God running back, he’s just a smaller (212 pounds), good speed (4.48 40-time), tough straight-ahead runner. He’s a tough and balanced runner for the college level, but not as tough and balanced against better defenses chasing him. NFL caliber bodies bring him down no issue.

He’s not a bust, but there’s just nothing special I get with Swift. Not a special size. Not special speed. Not special agility. Not a muscle hamster RB full of power. He’s just ‘capable’. He’s ‘OK/good’. He knows what he is doing as a runner. Has good hands. But he isn’t a game changer. What is that worth in the NFL? It shouldn’t be worth the #1 ranked RB prospect and 1st-round projection…but for many it is. There will be RBs taken in the 4th-round with similar or better skillsets only they didn’t play for Georgia.

The Georgia Bulldogs have spit out Todd Gurley, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb as of late…RB-U, in a sense. It’s why Elijah Holyfield was a top five RB prospect early in the draft process, and then was exposed at the Combine and went on to become an undrafted free agent. Swift isn’t Holyfield bad…I’m just giving an example of analysts being dazzled by the Georgia uniform for RB prospects of late. Swift is better than Holyfield, but not better than Gurley-Michel-Chubb.

Some people see Swift as a Kamara-like RB…I don’t see that at all. Kamara struggles running up the interior -- his whole game is out in space, very shifty/elusive, catching passes and working like a WR almost. Swift is the opposite of Kamara, in many ways. Swift is a comfortable interior runner who is tough enough running in traffic, but he has no great wiggle or elusiveness in him on the outside. You really don’t want Swift out in space, or to be more precise, you’d rather 100 other guys be out in space over Swift. Swift and Kamara have good pass catching skills, and that’s where the comps should end. They are differently styled runners/workers.

Swift is not a bust RB prospect for us, he’s just not anything special. He’s not close to the best physical presence RB in the draft. He’s not the best interior runner RB prospect. He is going to disappoint going east-west. He has good, reliable passing game hands…like a lot of RB prospects do. If Swift played for Cal, as an example, he’d be a day three prospect at best. Playing for Georgia, it’s an auto boost to his legend but I believe that’s a terrible scouting injustice being done (just being liked because of where he is from/playing at). There is nothing super special here, just something useful – you don’t wanna pay what some team is going to pay to have this. He should be a 3rd-4th-round RB, but he’ll go top 50 for ‘reasons’.

D’Andre Swift, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

The three top 20 defenses Swift faced in 2019 season were Notre Dame, Auburn, and Florida. In those three games, Swift averaged: 20.0 carries, 96.7 rush yards (4.8 ypc), 0.33 TDs per game. Very solid, capable, non-‘wow’ performances. At no point was he carving them up or dominating, he was just doing his normal interior running for as far as the hole would generally take him and trying to contact into an extra yard or two. Mostly the defenders on these better CFB defenses looked the part with many NFL prospects, and they ate up Swift/were not on their heels against him. 

Swift did face LSU and Baylor at the end of the season, but only took 2 carries vs. LSU and one against Baylor. 

Four bowl games (two games were CFB playoffs in 2017) – 4.3 carries, 8.8 rushing yards (2.0 ypc) per game. The one bowl game he played the most – 8 carries for 12 yards vs. Texas in 2018 season. 

Swift did not register a TD in his final seven college games. 

Never finished top 3 in rushing yards in the SEC in any of his seasons. He did not finish top 5 in any season for rushing TDs in the SEC. 

2020 NFL Combine Measurables…

5’8.2”/212, 9” hands, 29 7/8” arms (smaller hands, shorter arms…not a physical marvel at all)

4.48 40-time, 1.56 10-yard

35.5” vertical, 10’1” broad jump

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom D’Andre Swift Most Compares Within Our System:

Swift compares, in our system analysis, to other solid RB talents…but mostly ones that never really made it big in the NFL. It’s more nice college performers turned fringe NFL bodies. 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score =  Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

Swift is still hanging onto many late-1st-round mock draft projections as of this writing, but I believe he will go in the 2nd-round on draft day(s).

If I were an NFL GM, I have zero interest in investing in a very average/OK/good RB with a higher draft pick. A running back better be special in some way(s) for me to consider them a top 50-100 pick – and Swift is not that kind of special for me.

NFL Outlook:   

Swift will be drafted highly and pushed quickly and will do OK in the NFL. He’s not terrible, it’s just there are so many cheaper ways to go about this and several more talented guys who will never get a shot as Swift gets years to work in the NFL. It’s not fair, but it is what it is. We’ll all be excited about Swift as a rookie and then two years later it will be like Kerryon Johnson or David Montgomery, etc. We’ll forget why we even cared so much – Rookie Derangement Syndrome tends to do this to people every year. 

3/9/2020