NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Reports: RB Cam Akers, Florida State

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I was fortunate to study D’Andre Swift right before I spent dived into Cam Akers because it made my job with Akers so much easier. Basically, after observing all their work, I can clearly see that Akers is the lesser version of Swift…and that’s not a compliment, because I’m not too high on Swift either.

I wasn’t all that impressed with Akers (or Swift) in my brief pre-Combine scouting preview studies, but then Akers ran quite a bit faster than I thought he would at the Combine (4.47 40-time) and put up a nice bench press effort (20 reps), and when, subsequently, every football analyst at/covering the Combine decided to fall in love out loud with Akers at the same time – I thought I might have missed something. Maybe I didn’t see ‘it’ on my brief work on Akers prior and perhaps once I dug in deeper, I’d see a star. After all, the guy was a top ranked (like THEE top…), five-star high school RB prospect. Maybe I missed it. I fully expected to see the error of my ways once I started digging deeper.

Nope.

Everything I liked and didn’t about D’Andre Swift…it’s a little worse across the board with Akers.

Swift is a solid/good one-cut and go runner who looks very human when he has to stop/start or go east-west if the interior hole isn’t there (and that’ll be a problem in the NFL). Akers is very similar except with even less ‘pop’, less get up and go approaching the hole after a handoff…and he’s even worse/slower/stiff if the interior hole isn’t there and he tries to take anything outside or tries to juke a one-on-one tackler on the outside.

Swift is a physically tough, nicely balanced interior runner. Between the tackles, with no hesitation…Swift is pretty decent/good running inside; NFL-ready. Akers is a generic brand of that…he’s tough and balanced with great core strength but doesn’t show it as much on tape as Swift did. Watching Akers is like watching Swift after a wizard cast a spell on him to take away 10-20% of his skills. Why a wizard would waste time and energy and magic on reducing a running back’s skills by a small percentage versus curing cancer or feeding the world, I don’t know…but you get what I’m saying. Akers is ‘Swift-lite’.

Akers had lower yards per carry every season and over his career compared to Swift, despite playing an easier schedule.

Swift and Akers can catch the ball well out of the backfield, but they aren’t anything magical in the passing game…just reliable. Swift is a better blocker as well.

Everything I think about Akers is kinda captured in his 2019 game vs. Florida, the toughest opponent he faced. Akers was a non-factor most of the game, couldn’t get by the D-Line for interior yards that well and definitely couldn’t shake or race past them on the outside when he tried. In the 4th-quarter, Akers broke a tackle on an off-tackle run and then ran untouched for a 50-yard TD – half of his 102 yards in the game, on one carry. 100+ yards rushing vs. Florida should be celebrated, right? Well, note at the time Akers/FSU were getting crushed 37-10… and when Akers broke that tackle, the defense half-heartedly watched him run straight (and he’s pretty fast running straight) for a TD. The next series, down 40-17 in the 4th, Akers got like a 10-yard run…and that was about the end of his day. Two decent runs as his team was getting humiliated by their in-state rival -- but prior to that, when the game was semi-competitive…a bunch of 0-1-2-3 yard runs and Akers was no help in trying to defeat Florida.

Akers is a solid college running back and is fine against weaker defenses and opponents in college…but when he faces the big boys, he looks very slow/human/generic. I think the next section of info/numbers will help drive this point home…

Cam Akers, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

In 2019, the top defenses that Akers faced were Clemson, Miami, and Florida. In 2018, he faced that same trio plus Notre Dame. Seven games against more NFL-level talent his final two college seasons, his output in those seven games:

13.6 carries, 50.7 yards (3.7 yards per carry), and 0.42 TDs per game.

In those 7 games -- all but one game under 70 yards rushing. Over half the games under 50 yards rushing. The yards per carry were abysmal. The one good game he had here, statistically/rushing, was that Florida game in 2019 where he scored the 50-yard TD in a blowout.

Three games versus Clemson in his career = 32 carries for 81 yards total, 2.53 yards per carry.

The biggest games of his career have come against Syracuse and La-Monroe, beating them up two times each in his career…not a great resume enhancer.

10 fumbles in 655 career touches = a fumble every 65.5 touches. Well below where you want to see, better than Jonathan Taylor in the 50s and slightly worse than D’Andre Swift in the 70s.

2020 NFL Combine Measurables…

5’10”/217, 9” hands, 30.6” arms

4.47 40-time, 1.52 10-yard, 4.42 shuttle, n/a three-cone

20 bench press reps, 35.5” vertical, 10’2” broad jump

Akers v. Swift:

5’10”, 217 pounds, 9” hands, 4.47 40-time, 35.5” vertical, 10’1 broad = Cam Akers

5’8.2” 212 pounds, 9” hands, 4.48 40-time, 35.5” vertical, 10’2” broad = D’Andre Swift

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Cam Akers Most Compares Within Our System:

I wasn’t thinking of Ryquell Armstead as a comp but once I saw it – it makes sense. Only Armstead may be a better prospect slightly. Both have decent size, strength, but run/move stiff. Both capable/can work OK in the NFL running the interior straight ahead…but forgettable runners overall. 

Armstead will probably be a journeyman in another year or two, while people pine away for Akers for years, probably. Armstead runs with more urgency, desire, desperation…Akers runs like a guy who has been told he’s the greatest for years and doesn’t have anything to prove. 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

Akers was a 3rd-4th-round prospect for most pre-Combine, but now he’s riding a wave…a wave likely to get him in the upper 3rd-round of the draft. 

If I were an NFL GM, I have no interest in Akers at all. There will be undrafted free agents with more athletic gifts and more desire/grit/hunger who will be punished to UDFA status all because of where they went to school or how many stars they were rated in high school. It’s a crime. Taking Akers top 100 in this draft is also a crime, and an NFL team will deserve the punishment for it.

NFL Outlook:   

Akers is as capable as 100+ other running backs that have experience and size and enough speed to run the ball in the interior of the NFL. He won’t embarrass himself when given the chance…he’ll just not make much of a difference or get people excited, and in a few years he’ll be like all the forgotten RB names that we were hyper focused on in their draft year and then moved on to microfocus on the new guys coming, and won’t care about Akers because he won’t do anything memorable.    

3/10/2020