2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Bryce Perkins, Virginia

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

The first three draft ranking/scouting services I checked – Bryce Perkins was not ranked among the first 200 players in the draft…barely any service is looking at him as a draftable asset. Two of those three services don’t even show him among their top 15 QB prospects for the draft. 

*Soon after I wrote the first draft of this report, the NFL Combine attendees were announced…and Perkins was not invited. A serious blow to his NFL prospects.  

Projecting/scouting Perkins for the NFL comes down to one big question.  There are two pieces of evidence to support Perkins’ case…

The question…

Are scouts taking the Lamar Jackson revolution, in the NFL, seriously? I still don’t believe they are. They pay lip service but they’re not seeking desperately to find it/the ‘next’. Scouts and analysts are doing their typical lazy work of ‘which QBs that went to a top 4 program does everyone else like? ‘

I believe teams should be, and some are, looking for Lamar Jackson-a-likes. Lamar is one of a kind in his genre, so it will be difficult to find an equal…but you couldn’t find a ‘next Brady’ or ‘next Gronk’ easily/at all for a decade+, and that didn’t keep you from trying, and anyway, those cheaper imitations might still have serious value. Also, knockoff Tom Bradys are trouble when they are not ‘Brady’ but weak-armed turnover machines, but knockoff Lamar Jacksons still have value, especially right now in an NFL not fully sure yet just how to squash highly mobile QBs. You can make up for a lot of sins/mediocrity as a passer when the defense is afraid to rush you and gives you extra time in the pocket. A quarterback doesn’t have to throw for 30+ TDs in a season to be a success if they throw for a measly 20 TDs but run for another 10 TDs to get to their 30 TDs.  

Highly mobile QBs are still rare and are enigmas still in the NFL. And a guy like Bryce Perkins could do some surprising damage in the NFL, immediately, because of his unique skill set.

The evidences…

1) How a team/scout feels about Bryce Perkins is related to how they feel about Jalen Hurts as a prospect. Teams and scouts and analysts looking past or discounting Hurts in this 2020 draft process (and most are) are still missing the future of the NFL. Sure, I’d rather have Joe Burrow as well, just like I’d rather, as personal preference, have Patrick Mahomes over Lamar Jackson – but Lamar Jackson, right now, might be just as good/better/more dangerous as a QB in the league…just differently skilled.

There may never be another Patrick Mahomes or rare few close to it in a draft, and the next high-end pocket passing QB prospects will be costly, as they always are, in the draft…but knockoff Lamar Jackson-like QBs are a huge value today.

In my opinion, Jalen Hurts should be a top 30-50 prospect and could be an effective starter at QB in Week 1 of this upcoming 2020 season – because he is a power running back at quarterback, who can also throw the ball pretty solidly. He’s a unique prospect.

Bryce Perkins is a lesser version of Jalen Hurts – not as fast, not as strong (no QB is), not as experienced a passer…but is NFL fast/a good runner+, is strong enough to run the ball 10+ times a game at the next level, and can throw the ball well enough in a spread offense built for his skill set.

If you like Jalen Hurts, you should have an interest in the discount version you get in Bryce Perkins.

2) All you want to know about Perkins can be wrapped up in his 2020 late-season game vs. Virginia Tech. The winner of that final conference game was going on to the ACC title game to face Clemson. Perkins completed 60.7% of his 33 passes with 1 TD pass and 1 interception in that game…nothing special for a passing game stat line -- but Virginia won 39-30 in part because Perkins ran 19 times for a career high 164 yards and 2 TDs. He took the game over with his feet.

Watch that Va Tech game for Perkins, only looking at his passes…you’re not moved. Watch him take the game over as a known runner, who still couldn’t be stopped, and you’d think he could be some Lamar-like QB weapon to utilize at the next level.

Perkins is a solid size at 215+ pounds…like a decent-sized running back. He ran the ball 16.3 times per game in his two years as a starter at Virginia and rushed for 20 TDs in 27 games. He will run the ball, but he also can throw pretty well – 64.5% and 64.4% Comp. Pct. his two seasons with 47 TDs/21 INTs in 27 starts. It’s all solid work.

Scouting Perkins as a passer – he has a good arm and throws effortlessly/flicks the ball from a standstill and that helps NOT tip off the defense for a split second on throws. He doesn’t have to have a big wind up or bend into his throws with classic mechanics (like Lamar). He throws the ball effectively at different arm angles (like Lamar) and he also has that basketball skill of looking one direction and then no-look passing to a safety valve option and further throwing off defenses on simple pass plays. Do you want Perkins standing in the pocket and throwing the ball 40+ times a game in a timing passing game? Absolutely not. But do you want him with the ball in shotgun on 4th & 1 with a run-pass option? You could do worse.

If Lamar is an ‘A+’ at being a mobile QB, dangerous passer disruptor, and if Jalen Hurts is a ‘B’…then I’d say Perkins is a solid ‘C’ with maybe C+/B- hopes.

Perkins has intangibles… He began his career at Arizona State, broke his neck on a simple practice play and underwent nonsurgical healing of it. Lost his place in line at Arizona State, went to JUCO and played well for a year, and then was recruited to Virginia where he led the team to back-to-back winning seasons in his two years – Virginia last had a winning record in 2011, until Perkins arrived. The last time they had back-to-back winning seasons was 2004-2005.

Perkins is a team leader, an all-academic ACC performer, and a solid+ athlete at quarterback. He should be a draftable prospect, a desired commodity in the Lamar Jackson QB era/economy, but he may go overlooked/underestimated.

Bryce Perkins, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

Rushed for 100+ yards in a game 7 times in his 27-game career.

Two or more TD passes in a game 17 times in his 27-game career.

Three or more TDs total (run and pass combined) in 14 of his 27 games as a starter.

Bowl game numbers (vs. So. Carolina/2018 and Florida/2019): 70.4% Comp. Pct., 265.5 passing yards, 52.5 rushing yards, 3.5 TD passes and 0.50 INTs per game with a 1-1 record.

Against Pitt, Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson, Va Tech, Florida in 2019: 2-4 record, 9 TDs/6 INTs, 2 rushing TDs, 276.5 yards passing, and 39.0 yards rushing per game.  

He put up numbers with a previously struggling college program and it’s not all rushing…it’s not perfect, but it’s a lot better than he’s given credit for.

Projected Measurables:

6’2.5”/215 with 9”+ hands

4.55 runner with sub-7.00 three-cone

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Bryce Perkins Most Compares Within Our System:

In his 2013 season at BYU, Taysom Hill ran for 1,344 yards and 10 TDs in 13 games. He then had two ACL injuries during the remainder of his career, and it seemed to take his NFL hopes away, but he scrapped his way to NFL viability via special teams -- the NFL was not ready for his style yet…they are now, more and more. Full credit to Sean Payton.

This list also makes me weep for Jordan Lynch…had he played in this era, he’d be in demand…back-to-back 1,800+ rushing yards and 20+ rushing TD seasons with 49 TDs/14 INTs as a passer. He was totally overlooked coming out college in 2014…and the Bears tried to make the UDFA QB into a running back but didn’t take it seriously and he disappeared from the NFL. The lack of the NFL’s vision for such things screwed him.

That same mentality is mostly still in existence, and that’s going to hurt Perkins’ NFL value as well. Remember, NFL teams wanted Lamar Jackson to move to WR when he came out of college…we’re only two years removed from that fact. The bias against the mobile QB is still real in large part.  

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2020, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.

**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. 

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys. 

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

There still remains a bias against Perkins’ non-Brady style of QB play, so he will be undervalued…BUT Lamar Jackson is starting to change that mindset, so Perkins could catch the attention of a team wanting to take a half-assed look into the Lamar Jackson world of offense and they draft Perkins Day 3.

I’d guess he’ll be drafted 7th-round, but UDFA is likely the bet. A coach with his finger on the pulse of this offensive revolution of the ‘next Lamar’ > then the ‘next Brady’, and who is tapped into the college ranks might be thrilled to land Perkins (cheap) to work with his new age, highly mobile QB room.

NFL Outlook:   

When QB prospects have no analyst/scout/media heat…they almost have no chance to make in the NFL. Their NFL existence is based more on draft status than reality. Perkins likely faces a long, uphill climb to a real shot at starting in the NFL…and it would probably be as an emergency option, and the team would be looking to draft a bigger name if things were falling apart for them at QB. Perkins would not be a purposeful Plan A or Plan B for most NFL teams today.

Perkins has to hope he makes a team as a Lamar Jackson mimic on the practice squad, and then the team has an emergency forcing them to elevate Perkins into playing time and then he shines/shows he has NFL viability. It’s a very narrow window of hope…but it’s still hope. I do hope he gets a real shot somewhere.  

2/3/2020