NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: DT Khalil Davis, Nebraska (QH)

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

 Our Quick Hit (QH) scouting reports are a modified/shorter version of our full-scale reports. On these Quick Hits, I look at a lesser amount of tape and write a shorter amount of flowy words – these are usually designed more for sleeper prospects that I want to get more acquainted with and if something really jumps out, I’ll go deeper. It’s just me trying to get in and get out and deliver the pertinent notes to you for your consideration and for review later if they start to make waves in a year or two.

I’ll do a chunk of these pre-Draft and then more after the Draft, going through the players that caught my attention in the draft (because of how high they were taken) or that I stumble across in training camp or the preseason that catch my eye.

Most of my notes on these Quick Hits will be short and sweet bullet points versions of our full-scale reports. Enjoy…

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There’s only one reason we’re diving deeper here – Khalil Davis ran a 4.75 40-time at the NFL Combine…at 308 pounds. Do you know how freaky that is? Only two 300+ DT prospects have EVER run sub 4.80 40-times at the NFL Combine and Davis one of them. Is it a sign of pending greatness?

You’re about to find out as we see if there is some Aaron Donald here or not. When I previewed him for the Senior Bowl and Combine – I did NOT see Aaron Donald, but maybe I missed it? Going back in for a re-check…

BACKGROUND…

 -- Multiple year Big Ten scholar athlete.

 -- 2019 Track and Field all-American honorable mention (discus).

 -- Fastest DT prospect at the 2020 NFL Combine…fastest 10-yard split/dash…most bench press reps (32).

 -- Twin brother Carlos also plays DT for Nebraska and went to the Senior Bowl and Combine and ran times, etc., similar/just behind Khalil.

GAME TAPE AND RANDOM NOTES…

 -- I was ready to have my mind changed going into this (and assuming it would be). I didn’t like him much on minor tape previews pre-Senior Bowl, post-Senior Bowl, pre-Combine.

So I watched more tape, and – I’m still not impressed…not impressed at all. Very disappointed.

 -- The speed is there. He’s a big guy moving fast, but two things happening with that speed on the tape I watched…

#1: Rarely gets into the backfield to make plays where you see the superior speed as a weapon.

#2: Gets blocked by good offensive lineman WAY too easily. I watched a lot of top DT prospects Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw tape before Davis…and Davis has WAY more speed and is WAY stronger (bench reps wise)…but Brown and Kinlaw moved people backwards off the snap. Davis rarely made a dent in his opposing blocker – good blockers were not fazed. I don’t care if he sometimes dominated Maryland or Colorado or South Alabama, if he couldn’t expose Wisconsin or Ohio State, etc.

 -- Against Wisconsin…totally ineffective/non-disruptive. Last two years vs. the Badgers: 5.0 tackles, 0.0 TFLs, 0.0 sacks per game. The Minnesota blockers looked amused, not challenged by him.

 -- Against Minnesota 2019…a lesser-than Wisconsin O-Line, Davis was still not much of factor (4 tackles, 0.0 TFL, 0.0 sacks).

 -- You’d think with Davis’s superior athleticism, he’d be a Tasmanian Devil running around college football. He wasn’t.

 -- To Davis’ credit…

a) He was forced to play some 3-4 DE, and then he really got halted by opposing tackles blocking him. Again, the Wisconsin tackles were toying with him when he worked as a DE. He’s not a 3-4 DE. He’s a 4-3 DT prospect.

b) Davis plays 110% every play, never seems to run low on energy, chases plays around the field instead of watching them (like Derrick Brown or Kinlaw tend to do).

 -- When I watched Aaron Donald back in the day, I instantly knew I was watching something special. The tape said it. His production numbers said it. His Combine said it. I then said it…because our computer said it…while the NFL people pushed Tim Jernigan as the universal top DT prospect.

I don’t see any Aaron Donald with Khalil Davis…not even close.

 -- Very high character and smart player. Will not hurt an organization off the field or fail to learn/improve with coaching. He’s coachable.

Khalil Davis, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:

 -- I show only two DT prospects in history who ran a sub-4.80 40-time while weighing 300+ pounds at the NFL Combine…both in 2020.

Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (304 pounds) ran 4.79

Khalil Davis, Nebraska (308 pounds) ran 4.75

 -- Aaron Donald v. Khalil Davis…

6’1”/308, 4.85 40-yd, 1.66 10-yd, 32 bench press, 32.5” vertical = K. Davis (2020)

6’1”/285, 4.69 40-yd, 1.63 10-yd, 35 bench press, 32.0” vertical = Donald (2014)

105 tackles, 24.0 TFLs, 13.0 sacks, 2 forced fumbles (36 games) = K. Davis (career)

181 tackles, 66.0 TFLs, 29.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles (45 games) = Donald (career)

 -- Versus Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan the past two years…

(9 games) 3.3 tackles per game, 0.4 TFLs, 0.1 sacks per game. 

This is not impressive output at all. 

The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Khalil Davis Most Compares Within Our System:

Davis tracks with a mixed bag of athletic freak DTs…some who made it, some who failed, some who got hurt and lost their career upside/hope through the unfortunate circumstances. If Davis is another Javon Hargrave – that’s a good NFL career. 

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.

All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

Davis wasn’t highly ranked/rated nationally before the Combine, and he got a small bump due to his Combine numbers…but mostly he’s tracking 4th-5th-round. I could see him sneaking into the top 100 overall because of his freakish Combine, but also falling out of the top 100 because he has no media momentum. 

If I were an NFL GM, based on what I see, I’m not paying a premium for Davis. Maybe if he slides into the 5th+ round, I’d look at those Combine numbers and wonder if we could change some things and make him great. I’d love to work with him, just not willing to overpay to do it. 

NFL Outlook:   

A real crapshoot, but my projection would have to be – NFL-worthy, starter-worthy, rotational, and doesn’t really become great…nor is a liability. He’s just a nice body rotating. I hope he gets unlocked at the next level and kills it, but he didn’t in college…harder to flip a switch in the pros. 

4/10/2020