NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: WR/TE Simi Fehoko, Stanford

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Let’s take a look at Stanford WR Simi Fehoko’s  final college game. Against UCLA, in a PAC 12 regular season game on 12/19/2020, Fehoko caught 16 passes for 230 yards and 3 TDs…half of his team’s passing yards, all his team’s passing TDs in that game.

Also, in that game… Fehoko caught a leaping 30+ yard pass and came down just out of bounds, and dropped two simple slant/crossers. He was also 5+ yards wide open early in the game, sprinting deep, and his QB threw it 5-yards past him missing out on a 30+ yard TD. Fehoko was sniffing a 20 catch, 300 yards, 4 TD game for his college finale…in a game against a D1 opponent. He was later named 1st-team all-PAC 12 at WR.

That’s how we begin this study.

Oh…

And Fehoko is nearly 6’4”/222 pounds (10.25” hands), ran a 4.44 at his Pro Day with a 6.78 three-cone…all high-end/elite athleticism numbers for his size.

Knowing all this, surely Fehoko is a top 100 overall prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft, right? Ha! You’re lucky if a Draft website even has him listed as a WR…or, when they do, if he’s in the top 300 overall.

What’s wrong here? What’s the catch? What aren’t I telling you? Let’s examine his case…

Fehoko was the 2015 Utah Football Player of the Year. Seemingly, his entire family bloodline (dad, cousins, grandfather, uncles) were college athletes in various sports, mostly basketball and football the past 50+ years.

Before joining Stanford, Fehoko did an LDS two-year mission…so, at 24 years old, an older prospect. He barely played as a freshman in 2018. He started to break out in his sophomore 2019 season – 24 rec., 566 yards, 6 TDs. That may not get you excited, but he did miss 3 games in the season…and he worked with a terrible passing game, so his output/share of the passing game wasn’t bad – he accounted for 40%+ of the passing TDs in the games he played. He was primed for a big 2020, but COVID hit -- and he was still stuck with a weak QB (Davis Mills)/passing game and didn’t have huge numbers in total, in part due to a limited 6-game season and the weakness of the passing game.

If you doubled Fehoko’s 2020 output for a hypothetical 12-game season, you’d get a season of: 74 catches, 1,128 yards, 6 TDs…which would have helped to get him on the map.

Fehoko deserves better. He has NFL starting WR size and athleticism. He has decent hands, but his hands are probably the sticking point for real NFL evaluators – Fehoko is not the most natural catcher of the ball, so you can see drops on his tape here and there…but you also see a ton of acrobatic, tightly contested catches…more of those than the ‘drops’. But the NFL hates drops more than losing football games. In the NFL, perceived drops are like COVID – statistically not what everyone thinks in terms of mortality, but everyone deathly afraid of it anyway and wanting to stay FAR away from anyone who has it just to be safe. NFL evaluators watching his UCLA game will see a 16-catch, 230-yard, 3 TD domination with several acrobatic catches…but they’ll probably only remember his two simple drops and label him as ‘bad hands’ and they’ll stay FAR away from drafting him.

I can see Fehoko isn’t Larry Fitzgerald with his hands, but he also makes a ton of big plays/catches and is a hell of an athlete before and after the catch and a ‘plus’ size. He has way more football success than drops being any issue – but the NFL people, mostly, won’t see it that way.

To me, Fehoko is two things…

1) A classic, reliable outside #2 WR – can beat you deep with speed and can go over the top to make a catch but can also take short timing route catches and break tackles and leave smaller defenders in the dust. He could be an NFL WR. He’s what people thought terrible J.J. Arcega Whiteside would be. He reminds me of an old Riley Cooper.

2) Fehoko also has the frame and movement to be a potential TE conversion…and I would be so intrigued by that if I were an NFL GM…but only the Philadelphia Eagles seem to be actively seeking to convert WRs to TE. 31 other teams are asleep at the wheel on this (despite the fact that two of the top 5-10 TE weapons in the NFL now are not college tight ends…Waller and Logan Thomas…not to mention what Taysom Hill brings to the table).

You could take Fehoko as a WR, and you’d have an NFL starter prospect or a #4 WR with some special teams hope on your hands…or add 10 pounds of muscle and make him a high-end TE weapon – and, to me, that’s where is his extra value, his hidden (in plain sight) value is.

Fehoko should be a top 200 overall prospect – he has proven abilities on the field. He has been an honor roll student in the PAC 12. He was a stud high school player. His bloodlines are rich with athletes and his Pro Day was high end for measurables. You want this kind of talent to work with. His age is a knock (due to the LDS mission).

Simi Fehoko, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- 2020 season totals: 37 rec., 574 yards, 3 TDs (6 game season)

Those totals as a ‘share’ of the passing game in 2020 for Stanford…

26.1% of all the completed passes

35.6% of all the receiving yards

42.9% of all the passing TDs

The raw totals are not eye catching, but the ‘share’ numbers are higher end…and a smaller sample size (but it’s all we got in 2020!).

2021 Pro Day:

6’3.7”/222, 10.25” hands, 31.6” arms

4.44 40-time, 2.62 20-yd, 1.59 10-yd

4.26 shuttle/6.78 three-cone

16 bench reps, 34.5” vertical, 10’0” broad jump

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Simi Fehoko Most Compares Within Our System:

If you even remember Eric Decker…you’d know that isn’t a negative comp from our computer models. Fehoko does remind me of Krishawn Hogan…and that scares the heck out of me for his future (that he’ll get ignored by the league…but Fehoko has way more pedigree than Hogan did). Michael Pittman has some legit comparisons, but Pittman was/is a better WR…but know there’s a lot of near exact physical comparisons between them. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

Let’s do a tight end comp board, because if I were Fehoko…I’d already be converting…

Zach Miller was a QB-WR-TE in college, low level pf play…and he beefed up to 240+ and flashed some legit NFL abilities…he made some money in the NFL. His crime was (besides being a small school player) was multiple ACL injuries taking his hopes away. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

Fehoko barely tracks as a draftable player in most draft rankings/websites…but his size and athleticism numbers, much less his tape, should get him drafted – day three, 6th/7th-round is my estimate. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’d have Fehoko on my radar for sure…and by the time I get to the end of the pre-draft scouting process, if he is the best looking WR-to-TE conversion – then I’d target him day three. After Kyle Pitts, there is nothing exciting showing at tight end in this draft – so, Fehoko should have a supply and demand value as a TE move…but the NFL is so totally asleep at the switch that they won’t see it. They’ll wait for him to fail/get ignored for 1-2-3 years THEN try to covert him as he’s getting on the old side and it will be a wasted effort. Fehoko should be doing this already, so much more money for him at tight end if he can convert. 

NFL Outlook:   

Hopefully = Gets a real shot to play WR, but even more I want to see him covert to tight end right away. 

Likely = Drafted late, stuck at the end of a WR depth chart, winds up a practice squad guy who wastes time on special teams versus developing as a WR…then 2-3-4 years from now is aging, and tries to convert to tight end…and then it’s too late.  

3/28/2021