NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available. 

Over the past week or so, Georgia CB prospect Tyson Campbell’s draft stock has skyrocketed.  Some analysts have moved him from a 2nd/3rd-round prospect pre-March into the Farley-Surtain-Samuel-Horn mainstream consensus discussion of the top 3-4-5 CB prospects for this draft. Why? Well, at his Georgia Pro Day, he measured in at a CB-pleasing 6’1”/193 -- and then went out and ran a 4.40 40-time.

So, I’ve studied the case, watched the tape, and run the numbers – and I can tell you… Campbell doesn’t really even belong in the top 10 cornerback prospect group… and certainly not in the top 5.

Our grades differ some from the mainstream for the Farley-Surtain-Samuel-Horn group, but I see the value in all of them. When Greg Newsome and Eric Stokes started to pop…I saw the values in them as well, upon study. I’ve not strayed too far from the mainstream on the top corners (except I feel Aaron Robinson is arguably the top CB prospect in this class, and no one agrees with that - yet). So Campbell is the first real major split I have with the consensus – they, suddenly, see a 1st-rounder…I see a mediocre corner with several flaws, bust potential flaws.

I believe Campbell is catching hype for, mostly, all the wrong reasons…

1) He ran fast at a Pro Day…and I get that’s worth diving into but ignored is his weaker 7.15 three-cone and 4.45 shuttle times. But the 40-time is what got his prospects re-ignited.

2) Playing for Georgia, playing in the SEC…it’s an extra spit shine on a player’s profile. Fast + Taller (6’1”) + Georgia = analyst’s swoon. I get it. Not totally crazy, but there’s more to this story.

3) Oddly, teammate Eric Stokes was 2x better at his Pro Day and isn’t getting as much bump as Campbell. Why? Well, Campbell was SUPPOSED to be great…as predicted by the football people…so, they’re not giving up on ‘pedigree’. Campbell went to a high-profile high school (football factory) as was rated the #2 CB in his high school class in the nation. So, of course, he’s supposed to be great…and he runs fast, so that’s cool!

Most all of the Campbell rise in recent days is illogical when you compare him to his teammate Eric Stokes…

Look at these Pro Day numbers, and just blindly going by it…you tell me who is the more exciting athlete:

6’1”/194, 4.31 40-time, 1.50 10-yd, 38.5” vert., 6.96 three-cone, 14 bench reps, 78” wing = Stokes

6’1”/193, 4.40 40-time, 1.53 10-yd, 34.5” vert., 7.15 three-cone, 12 bench reps, 75.5 wing = Campbell

Stokes is faster, more agile, more powerful legs, stronger, longer…but Tyson Campbell is rated higher now? A spot check of three draft ranking services ranks them overall for 2021 (in order of the ones I used to compare spots)…

#27, #43, #115 = Campbell

#75, #73, #45 = Stokes

Two of the three services have Campbell well ahead of Stokes, the other actually knows what they are talking about here.

Sticking with the Campbell v. Stokes comparison…there’s the pesky issue of Campbell as a borderline problem in coverage and Stokes being very (very) good in coverage with huge upside. Campbell has been bred/trained to be a top CB for 7+ years now…Stokes is in his 3rd year of converting to the position – and Stokes is already much better at it.

If you watch Georgia vs. Alabama 2020, and you watch Stokes in coverage and Campbell in coverage – no comparison. DeVonta Smith ate Campbell alive at times, beat him most any time he wanted. Smith had a very difficult time ever shaking Stokes. Stokes took away Waddle too, while Campbell gave up a long TD to Waddle.

When I watch Campbell’s tape, especially against Alabama and their bowl game vs. Cincinnati, I see the glaring issue that the Pro Day also tried to warn of – bad agility (for a top pro prospect), trouble making cuts to stay up with decent WRs in their routes.

If you try to run a sprint deep against Campbell…he’ll stay with you. He is fast, for sure. However, if you cut hard or do a stop route…Campbell will be left about yard or two+ behind the receiver in most cases. He has a hard time sticking with WRs doing anything besides sprinting deep. Again, don’t show me Campbell versus South Carolina or Arkansas State…I’m watching him against Alabama, Florida, Cincy to see what we have here – against top WRs and/or QBs (and man that kid for Cincy at QB/Desmond Ridder is really a good-looking prospect). And what I saw was a guy constantly behind cutting receivers.

Campbell has some NFL-attractive qualities, and fortunately for him…they are the qualities the short-sighted media focuses on: He’s bigger than most CBs and he ran a 4.40 at a Pro Day. Campbell has a track & field/sprinter’s background – a top high school track star. He runs fast straight, but there’s more to the NFL than that. The media ignores the weak agility times, the weak vertical, and the limited bench press. Campbell plays like a track & field cornerback…and to me, that’s damning for the NFL.

Not only does Campbell have flaws in his coverage game, but he’s also not the brightest guy I’ve seen interacting with the press. Not a major issue, and you don’t need to be a MENSA guy to play NFL corner…I’m just noting he might not help himself in zoom calls – whereas his teammate Eric Stokes is much more like what NFL coaches want to see/hear speak.

Campbell deserves to be drafted…he has some tools many guys don’t have, but he has troubling flaws on paper and on tape – so, our computer scouting models really see the problems weighing him down more than the upsides lift him up. He’s not a D.O.A/bust prospect, but he’s not a 1st-rounder…or not even a day two guy perhaps.

Tyson Campbell, Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- 10 career passes defended (which is weak for 31 career games). 40% of them against Arkansas State and Austin Peay. 60% of them outside the SEC. 

 -- One career INT for Campbell…as Eric Stokes had 4 picks in 2020, returning two for TDs.

 -- 0-2 solo tackles in a game in 19 of his last 24 games. He’s not big into tackling on tape, but he can muscle/wrangle receiver to the ground OK enough (and he can improve on this next level). 

 -- Did have two fumble recovery TDs in his career. 

2021 Pro Day:

6’1”/193, 9” hands, 32” arms, 75.5” wingspan

4.40 40-time, 2.51 20-yd, 1.53 10-yd

4.45 shuttle, 7.15 three-cone

12 bench press, 34.5” vertical, 10’4” broad jump

The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Tyson Campbell Most Compares Within Our System:

The A.J. Terrell comp is a great one – tall, fast, big name college, gets WILDLY over-drafted because of the flimsy/media attractive headline info…and then flops/never lives up to draft stock in the bigs.

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis.

COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data

SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc.

AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc. 

POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I think Campbell’s speed and size will get him drafted top 100 overall, for sure. However, I think he’ll be 2nd-round/not 1st-round because of the flaws in his tape and his personality…but Campbell has a lot of markers dopey scouts/GMs can fall in love with (like A.J. Terrell #16 in 2020…and then the whole staff and personnel management is fired months later). 

If I were an NFL GM, I see WAYYYY too many good/great CB prospects to ever waste draft capital on Campbell in the top 100. When Campbell gets taken ahead of Aaron Robinson, I am going to shed a tear (and laugh hysterically). 

NFL Outlook:   

Going to be drafted top 100 overall with hopes of being a year one contributor, but will probably struggle mightily and be a bit of a disappointment…and then we’ll all forget about it a year from now…like when I just mentioned A.J. Terrell’s name…

3/24/2021