NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: WR Andy Isabella, U Mass

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Pound-for-pound, Andy Isabella might be the best wide receiver talent in the 2019 NFL Draft. And it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t like him as a player among scouts and analysts…everyone has gotten the word that we’re all supposed to like Isabella.

However, most scouts like Isabella because he’s ‘scrappy’ (code for ‘fast/good Caucasian WR’), but that’s about as far as they’ll go. A tip of the cap, but then they’re moving past Isabella to fall all over D.K. Metcalf because you can say cool things like ‘He looks like Batman’ or they call Marquise Brown ‘Hollywood’. The best you get about Isabella is ‘He’s like Julian Edelman’ – that’s not as sexy a statement/attention getter.

The fact that Andy Isabella is faster than Marquise Brown, has one less Lisfranc injury, and is 10-times the technician at wide receiver is lost on analysts who keep pushing Brown for reasons, even though Isabella is better than Brown in every way.

Before I pat myself on the back for being so much smarter than the average scout, waving Isabella around as my proof – we have an issue here. I can claim, and be ‘right’, that Isabella is better than Marquise Brown or Deebo Samuel, etc., but it may not ever materialize in the pros because Isabella is Julian Edelman…a better Julian Edelman – but what team besides the Patriots have ever unleashed an Edelman/Walker type receiver consistently? Isabella may be a star talent with no place to become that star.

Isabella is 5’8”+/188, and he works the Edelman role like a clone. He can work underneath, on bubble screens, and he has the added bonus that if you play him up close…he’ll fly right by you and crush you deep. He held (and may still) the Ohio state record for 60-yard dash at the high school level…beating the likes of Denzel Wardin speed tests in high school. Isabella is a super dangerous, multi-faceted weapon for the NFL (and obviously was in college)…and all he can elicit today from most analysts is ‘scrappy’. And if NFL analysts think it, the fans will guzzle it down too…and so will the most lemming of them all – NFL teams/personnel departments.

If Isabella winds up on Buffalo…he’s lost for four years. If he winds up on New England, he’s an understudy for 1-2-3 years. If he winds up on Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, or with Patrick Mahomes if Tyreek is done, or in Arizona with Kyler Murray, if Isabella is starting right away, in those offenses with those QBs – a star could be born day one.

Isabella’s upside is limited by the offense/coach/QB he works with.

Studying Isabella on tape is not a lengthy endeavor because he’s the same guy every game – open, fast/fast feet off the snap, catches most things, makes big plays, was the offense even when everyone on the opposing team knew it. There’s no sense in writing a bunch about it…everyone agrees, and anyone could see it on his tape.

The only two study things I’ll add that may be fresher/unique info or observations…

1) I studied Deebo Samuel in-depth before Isabella. Hands down, Isabella is better in every way. It was night and day watching them work in 2018, even comparing them in their 2018 games against Georgia. The Georgia game is a neat comparison because…

Deebo caught 6 passes for 33 yards and couldn’t shake free of ace CB Deandre Baker.

Isabella caught 15 passes for 219 yards and 2 TDs, and Baker wasn’t on him much…because it’s not Baker’s game to cover the slot guy Edelman-ing all around the field. It looks like Isabella had this awesome game here, and he did statistically, in reality, it wasn’t as great a game as the numbers would indicate. He scored two long TDs late in a blowout against backup DBs. Still, just watching Isabella and Deebo Samuel against Georgia’s 1st-team in 2018…Samuel looked like a stiff athlete and Isabella was a handful for anyone who tried to cover him.

2) When I watched Isabella against the likes of Georgia and Mississippi State, all the tougher teams he faced in his career – he was the same guy every game. No one could really shut him down, except the limitations of the quarterback.

Had Isabella gone to Oklahoma and played with Murray-Mayfield the past two years…he would have tripled+ Marquise Brown’s numbers during the same span.

Isabella is a great wide receiver talent and a quality/smart human built for a specific WR role – the question is…will he find his way to that role in the NFL or be mishandled? Ask Trent Taylor or Adam Humphries or Cole Beasley how easy it is to thrive with that role in the pros. Oh, and Isabella is a better pro prospect than all of them.  

Andy Isabella, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Isabella accounted for 47%+ of his team receiving yards and TDs in 2018…the only other serious WR prospect who even hit the 40s (low-mid 40s) in those categories was Hakeem Butler. There’s no sense tearing apart Isabella’s performance numbers…he was awesome against all comers, with defenses knowing it was coming…and working with weak QB play. 

Faced six SEC teams the past three seasons, most of them as a sophomore, his average output per game against them: 6.5 catches, 97.8 rec. yards, 0.50 rec. TDs, and 10.8 rushing yards. His three SEC TDs were from 69, 75, and 45 yards. 

2019 NFL Combine Measurables…

5’8.6”/188, 8.4” hands, 29.8” arms

4.31 40-time, 2.61 20-yard, 1.58 10-yard

4.15 shuttle, 6.95 three-cone

15 bench reps, 36.5” vertical, 10’1”

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Andy Isabella Most Compares Within Our System:

You cannot get a good comp with Isabella and Julian Edelman, because Edelman was a college quarterback, so it was impossible to gauge his effectiveness as a receiver back then. As an athlete we could guess, but his talent and hands…impossible. However, the reality is – Edelman is the perfect comp…Edelman the pro/Patriot.

You cannot equate Isabella with Wes Welker, because Welker was not a great athlete in that ‘role’, though he became a future Hall of Famer.

Trent Taylor seems like an obvious comp, but Isabella is so much faster, measured, than him.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

Isabella is a pretty consistent 2nd-3rd-round projection, and that feels right. I’d say 2nd-round is likely because so many people like him, from fans, the media, to the scouts. He’s no ‘sleeper’ pick that will fall.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d like to get in on the Isabella sweepstakes if I needed a WR for that role, but the price may be a bit prohibitive. Would love to have him, but he’s no bargain…although he’s going to be worth the price in the right offense.

NFL Outlook:   

Again, it’s all about where he lands.

Julian Edelman is a Hall of Famer with Brady-Belichick, and likely cut and out of the league anywhere else.

Wes Welker…a nothing in Miami, but Brady-Belichick get him and make him a Hall of Famer…

And so it could go with Isabella. Where he lands…

4/14/2019