NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: WR KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

-- ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I had from watching 2-4 games of activity on a prospect this week, and with me already knowing the measurables and where the prospect was drafted. Also, with me having done some brief tape study/work on them and having a computer scouting model grade on them pre-Draft. With the ‘quick hit’, I wanted to do an abridged re-look at certain prospects, post-draft, for any numbers of reasons. – 

Why a re-look here? Two moments forced my hand to take a deeper look, make that three moments…

First, let me preface this by saying our initial scouting models did not like KeeSean, and my basic tape viewing of him pre-Combine did not like him much either. Nothing stood out on an NFL level to me. When Arizona took him 6th-round, after taking two other WRs, I was shocked. For months, I’ve been dismissive of Johnson. But then three things drew me into reconsidering…

1) I was scouting LB prospect Kaden Elliss not too long ago, and in a game against Fresno State I finally saw a spark/a flash (for me) on KeeSean Johnson. I saw some smooth operations…a professional WR. Good hands, etc. The first time I had been impressed with KeeSean.

2) The KeeSean spark from watching him vs. Idaho/Elliss made me wonder if he was another Diontae Johnson – better than the measurables can capture. Better than his output metrics in college because of the offense he was stuck with. Now, I started to worry I was missing like I did at first on Diontae Johnson.

3) Watching training camp footage and listening to Arizona sources…there is huge love for KeeSean. More so than for Isabella-Butler, I felt like. Now, I knew I had to go look ASAP. I feared I missed KeeSean by a mile. The more camp video I watch, the more I see KeeSean with the 1s and Butler/Isabella with the 3s.

So, I watched 3-4 games and did more research on KeeSean’s background/output and I took notes. I am going to post those notes in the order I took them/wrote them.

 -- Watching him against Minnesota. Maybe his toughest matchup of 2018? I thought he mostly struggled to have an impact in this game. Did get off for one big play/TD. 

 -- Minnesota’s main CB really didn’t struggle covering KeeSean. Especially downfield. Johnson’s TD came off beating the other/weaker CB. 

 -- Johnson is obviously smart in his movement and reliable to throw to, but he was not dominating against Minnesota.

 --FYI, Fresno State’s QB was pretty weak too – not the kinda guy that would help KeeSean. Johnson needs a Tom Brady, Drew Brees…meticulous short timing passers. Fresno State’s QB was a scrambler and gunning passes downfield and weak armed on his sideline/timing throws. 

 -- Johnson was a 2nd-team All-Mountain West in 2018…his own conference wasn’t that in awe of him.

 -- Boise State tape (2x in 2018) and watching highlight reels, all my notes are about the same…

Good/reliable hands and concentration. 

Reliable.

Good-not-great route runner, but better than most college prospects at this stage.

Not dominant. Not as quick as I thought he might be. Didn’t pull away from defenders with the ball.

A professional WR…not a clear #1 type WR, but a solid #3-4. 

 -- I was hoping to see more/be surprised here…but I wasn’t. My grades were too low pre-Draft, but I’m not ready to fully buy the greatness theme coming from Arizona camp.

KeeSean Johnson, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- All time Fresno State leader in receptions and yards. 

 -- Six or more catches in 12 of 14 games in 2018. 

 -- 8 career rushes for 27 yards (3.4 ypc) – a sign of his lack of explosiveness, I think. 

 -- Didn’t return punts or kicks often, or very well over his 4-year career…another troubling sign.

 -- KeeSean Johnson is not in Diontae Johnson’s class. 

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom KeeSean Johnson Most Compares Within Our System:

When I saw Chad Johnson as a high probability comp, I stopped in my tracks. I’m thinking KeeSean just does not have the ‘it’ or athleticism to be a star…but Chad Johnson fit that mold, statistically/grade-wise as well for us. KeeSean does have some Chad Johnson in him for sure…minus the being a free spirit/loon part, mentally. 

Maybe, I’m going to be wrong on KeeSean and I just can’t see his professionalism overcoming the lack of ‘wow’ movement I see. Wouldn’t be the first time. Allen Hurns fits that mold too. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

*Drafted #174 by the Arizona Cardinals*

NFL Outlook:   

Two paths here…

1) He’s ‘Mr. Reliable’. He has a lengthy, but unspectacular career as a useful hand. In the right spot at the right time kinda guy. 

OR

2) He’s so crafty at his craft…a pros pro that he just hustles and works his way to being a top NFL WR despite the weaker measurables and perceived (by me) lack of ‘pop’. 

I’m in camp #1, but I won’t rule out camp #2 just yet. 

7/29/2019