NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: WR N’Keal Harry, Arizona State

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I can set to the mood for this scouting report succinctly, which is rare for me. Post-NFL Combine, I did a deeper study on WR prospects in this order – D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and then N’Keal Harry. I spent a lot of time on the Ole Miss guys and then went on to study Harry. And now that I’ve studied them all, I can unequivocally state – anyone who thinks either Metcalf or Brown is better than Harry is ‘out their damn mind’. I have no idea what you are looking at, as a scout, if you have Harry slotted behind either Metcalf or Brown.

I suspect Harry will be our #1 rated WR prospect in 2019, but we’ll see. Still working through all the Combine data and there might even be non-Combine guys to discover. This is such a deep class…someone may be lurking, but based on what I’ve gleaned from preview studies on all of the Combine attendees and all the Combine data, and after a deeper dive into Harry -- I’m exactly where I was pre-Combine – Harry is the best WR prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft.

It’s not a radical position to take, because most everyone in the football establishment is pro-Harry, and some even have him #1 among the WR prospects…but most that I see have Harry behind Metcalf and/or Brown, for now. I don’t think, in reality, that Metcalf or Brown are top three…but Harry is definitely top three, and currently #1.

What is it about Harry? Everyone agrees he’s really big and really good. I’m not breaking any news there, but I’m going to talk about/focus on the main ingredient he has that puts him over the top. Before I do that, I need to set the table by comparing him, physically, to D.K. Metcalf…

6’3.3”, 228 pounds, 9.8” hands, 4.33 40-time, 27 bench reps, 40.5” vertical, 11’2” broad = Metcalf

6’2.3”, 228 pounds, 9.5” hands, 4.53 40-time, 27 bench reps, 38.5” vertical, 10’2” broad = Harry

In essence, Harry is an inch shorter, has a little less leg power, but bench presses the same as Metcalf. For all the oohs and aahs over Metcalf without a shirt on, Harry is pretty rocked up without his shirt on as well. Metcalf has one big advantage – the 4.3 vs. the 4.5s 40-time. That’s huge. Harry and Metcalf are pretty similar athletes except Metcalf is spellbindingly fast/faster…and that’s a big deal.

If you just stopped there, Metcalf looks like the better prospect. However, everything else that really matters for a WR prospect favors Harry. One of those areas is ‘hands’ – Metcalf has average/below average ‘hands’. Harry is a ‘plus’ receiver with his hands. 3rd & 5, in a huge spot, if they were on the same team -- their QB/the coaches would draw up the play/throw to Harry over Metcalf every time. But the even bigger advantage for Harry… where he pulls away, not only from Metcalf, but the rest of the class, arguably, as well – his agility/cut-ability.

Harry has a gift…he has exquisite feet for a man his size. Now, Metcalf has a superpower too…running straight very fast. But you’d rather have Harry’s superpower to blast off the snap, and stop on a dime for a timing pass, or cut inside for a slant, or shuffle step and juke a defender to get open quickly near the goal line or on a critical short play/pass. Harry has a stunning ability to stop, start, plant his foot and change directions and go as well as anyone in this draft class or in the NFL today.

What makes that footwork so stunning is…Harry is accomplishing it at 6’2”+/228 pounds. I studied Dante Pettis a few weeks ago – re-looking at his amazing ability to move his feet and get away from any coverage in an instant. But Pettis is 180+ pounds and 6’0”. Harry is giving you the same activity with 40+ pounds more thickness/muscle. I think Harry could bench press Dante Pettis. I think of DaeSean Hamilton or Taywan Taylor, and I marvel at their ability to use ‘choppy feet’ and lose their coverage right off the snap. They’re all amazing players with their quick feet…and they’re all around 180-200 pounds. Harry is doing the same at nearly 230 pounds, and several inches taller.

I didn’t have to watch 10+ games of tape with Harry. It was obvious 3-4-5 games in that it was the same guy game after game, regardless of opponent – good-to-great hands, making highlight reel catches often, reliable catches in traffic/big moments, and the ability to get open on just about any cornerback.

I see no flaws here. He’s got all the traits of a #1 WR. NFL size, good speed, great agility/feet, good-to-great hands, quality/humble kid from a positive background, hard-worker, was a five-star rated high school wide receiver recruit/#1 high school player in Arizona and was a good/great high school basketball player.

I can list several ‘flaws’ or ‘things of concern’ with D.K. Metcalf or A.J. Brown. I can’t give you one for N’Keal Harry. I guess…I wish he were a 4.4s runner, instead of a 4.5s, if you want a ‘knock’.

N’Keal Harry, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Caught 17 of his starting QBs’ 40 TD passes the past two seasons…42% TD share in the passing game is what you expect/want to see here…and it wasn’t the greatest passing QB to play with either. Harry has, obviously, a high share of the passing game for Arizona State the past two seasons…but, note, that his share increased against the best opponents he faced.

Harry’s toughest games the past two seasons were against USC 2x, Utah 2x, Washington 2x, and Stanford 2x. His output per game against that group: 6.1 receptions, 80.5 yards, 0.50 TDs. He also had a highlight reel punt return TD vs. USC in 2018. One that you have to see to appreciate…

Link: https://youtu.be/NFzefPDocxk

It was a 92-yard punt return TD where he ran like 120+ yards to get it…and amazingly finished with no one within 15 yards of him at the end.

In that same USC game, this happened (which Colin Cowherd called the greatest catch he’d ever seen):  https://youtu.be/j5kVYLtZpCw

Harry made it to one bowl game – 2017 vs. NC State. He caught 9 passes for 142 yards and a TD. 

2019 NFL Combine numbers…

6’2.3”/228, 9.5” hands, 33” arms

4.53 40-time, DNP in the agility drills…but I’m betting the numbers are pretty decent if he does them at his Pro Day.

27 bench reps, 38.” Vertical, 10’2” broad jump

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom N’Keal Harry Most Compares Within Our System:

I thought Andre Johnson was the obvious match as I watched Harry work, but he didn’t make our computer’s comp. If I could take Courtland Sutton, Rishard Matthews and Quincy Enunwa and put them into a blender with a sprinkle of Andre Johnson…then we have Harry. 

As I look at the comp list our system projects…it strikes me that there are many ‘professional’ wide receivers on here – and that’s what I think of with him. Good-to-great, but so consistent that he’s lethal in the trust the QB and coaches have with him. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall, this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

I think Harry was headed to the 2nd-round before the NFL Combine, but he had such a showing there that he’s very likely going in the 1st-round. I’d guess somewhere between #20-32. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’d have great interest in Harry…but I don’t pay 1st-round money for a wide receiver unless they’re super-special. Not when I could have had the better Courtland Sutton in the 2nd-round last year. And there are several other nice WR prospects this year who will go Day 2 and 3. I like Harry, a lot, but I don’t think he’s worth overpaying for in NFL terms…but some team will, and it should be fine. He’s a low probability to be a bust. He’ll either be very solid/good or possibly becomes borderline great. 

NFL Outlook:   

The difference between good and great, for Harry, probably lies in which team drafts him/which QB he plays with. Other than that, he’s going to be a fine NFL asset for some team for years to come. 

3/6/2019