NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

-- ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I had from watching 2-4 games of activity on a prospect this week, and with me already knowing the measurables and where the prospect was drafted. Also, with me having done some brief tape study/work on them and having a computer scouting model grade on them pre-Draft. With the ‘quick hit’, I wanted to do an abridged re-look at certain prospects, post-draft, for any numbers of reasons. – 

Why a re-look here? Everyone seems to love Arcega-Whiteside, and I don’t. Part of it I’ve seen a good amount of his tape…and I didn’t get ‘it’ at all. Slow out of the gate, constantly covered tightly, good hands…but never open. Then I saw his weak Pro Day numbers and was like…‘yup.’ I thought he’d fall mightily in the draft and then the constantly-making-me-go-‘WTF’-Eagles selected him #52 overall (their last 4-5 years of drafts is head-shaking).  

And then I see reports of him working in the slot and people talking about him as the Eagles future #1 WR, and yet I’m sitting over here wondering if he should even be drafted.

With that set up, I wanted to take a re-look to make sure I wasn’t having a bad day (twice) when I scouted him prior. 

I watched a few of his games, plus a highlight reel and looked over his data again. Here are my notes as I took them:

 -- Let’s start with JJAW vs. Notre Dame…facing a CB prospect I like, Julian Love. 

 -- (tape started) What? Love isn’t even covering him? Wow. Disrespect/does Notre Dame know what I know? 

 -- Painfully slow off the snap, and soft in his cuts after a few yards. The corner is keeping up with him like it’s nothing. 

 -- Wait…now JJAW went over to the other side and is taking on Love some. OK, good.

 -- JJAW cannot get open on Love the best he ever lived. What a joke.

 -- What is this JJAW ‘shimmy’ step off the line? He’s slow bursting out of it. If a corner just plays 2-3 yards off and allow him to waste time doing a slow-shuffle off to Buffalo, then just go where he goes, he’d never make a catch/give the QB an available window. 

 -- A couple good catches for JJAW…he has good hands, but he is never open. Every catch is contested. He’s making miracle/lucky catches every time he has a catch it seems…on the most basic of routes. 

 -- Now I’m watching him against USC 2017, and I just can’t -- this guy is never going to make it the NFL for long…he cannot get open. Why is a team inviting this onto their roster…wasting a 2nd-round pick asset on it? 

 -- Oh, here’s his good moments – against Oregon 2018 (4-82-2)…against a terribly slow corner who is playing up on JJAW so his shimmy step gets him free for a moment for a quick throw/box out of the defender. I’ll bet a lot of the YouTube ‘check this out’ moments people show as evidence on JJAW are from this Oregon game…and just taking his couple decent moments from it. He wasn’t all that great overall in this game even here. 

(checks YouTube) …and first online ‘analysis’ that I see is showing how great JJAW by slowing down the tape of him beating this Oregon corner a few times. Nice. 

 -- If CBs just play off him a bit, he can’t move/cut fast enough to beat them…they can recover/close on him easily. He’s like a TE playing WR. 

 -- I’m watching a UDFA talent WR – good hands, slow feet, no downfield burst, no sharp cuts 3+ yards down the field. Everything is a leaping catch or contested catch. 

 -- No thank you.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- vs. Notre Dame the past two seasons…4.5 catches, 34.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game. 

 -- vs. USC the past two years (three games)…3.3 catches, 72.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. 

 -- 5 of 14 TDs in 2018 vs. San Diego State and Cal-Davis. 

 -- vs. Washington the past two years…3.0 rec., 70.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

 -- played three top 20 defenses in 2018 (WASH, N. Dame, Utah), his average per game against them: 3.7 rec., 48.0 yards, 0.33 TDs per game

 -- Measurables (Pro Day)…

6’2”/225, 9.5” hands, 33.25” arms

4.50 40-time, 2.64 20-yard, 1.58 10-yard

DNP bench, 4.41 shuttle, 7.23 three-cone

*2018 knee injury…missed the NFL Combine

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom J.J. Arcega-Whiteside Most Compares Within Our System:

Kerry Meier is a perfect comp – hung around the NFL for a bit. Had great hands and size but didn’t have the necessary speed to get over. Was like a small TE playing WR. That’s what JJAW reminds me of. 

Jeremy Butler was a small TE playing WR too, but he was awesome and should’ve gotten a better run…but he was an FCS UDFA, so he didn’t matter to coaches. He kicked around the league but never got the full shot or mucked it up getting hurt. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

*Drafted #52 by Philadelphia*

NFL Outlook:   

I really think there is danger here. I thought the first two times I watched him ahead of the draft, and then when I saw the weak Pro Day, and now watching it again I’m almost 100% sure of it. I do not get this. 

I think he might flameout quickly in the NFL. Sure, he’ll get a thousand chances and maybe enough targets to have a moment, but eventually I know I’m going to be right here. Maybe they could try him at tight end? Doesn’t seem the type. 

5/31/2019