NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: TE Jace Sternberger, Texas Aamp;M

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

-- ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I had from watching 2-4 games of activity on a prospect this week, and with me already knowing the measurables and where the prospect was drafted. Also, with me having done some brief tape study/work on them and having a computer scouting model grade on them pre-Draft. With the ‘quick hit’, I wanted to do an abridged re-look at certain prospects, post-draft, for any numbers of reasons. -- 

Why a re-look here? Jace Sternberger landed in a great spot, potentially – the coveted tight end role working with the great Aaron Rodgers. In my pre-Draft basic tape review and in our computer scouting model grades – Sternberger kept coming up as ‘OK’…a ‘C’ grade kinda prospect. Not bad, not great. Things I liked, things that concerned me. His measurables, among tight ends, came up as ‘average’. What wasn’t average was his 10 TDs in 2018 – that’s high-end for a college tight end. 

With Sternberger landing so well, especially if the Packers move Jimmy Graham in 2019 preseason (doubtful), I wanted to re-look and see if I was missing anything…could Sternberger offer more, or is this just ‘C’ prospect meets ‘A/B’ situation?  

Quick hit notes (in the order I wrote them watching selected games):

 -- Started his CFB career with Kansas, left (because Kansas was awful in football), went to NE Oklahoma for a year, was heavier recruited after that JUCO season and went with Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M. Basically played one season at D1 (2018) and posted – 48 catches, 832 yards, 10 TDs in 13 games. 

 -- Willing blocker. A little lean in the upper body but looks strong enough to hold his own. 

 -- His college QB stinks – Kellen Mond. Typical ‘looking for a chance to run’ QB. Cannot read defenses well and usually makes one look and takes off running if his pass is not obvious. This QB was no help to being able to scout Sternberger as a pass game threat. 

 -- Sternberger made a living off of faking a block and darting down the middle seam. Often times wide open because defenses were so ready and willing to play the team/the QB to run the ball…or just figuring the QB would not see who was open. 

 -- Sternberger worked like a flanker-ish type WR/TE a bunch…which takes some of the ‘wow’ away from his receiving numbers as a ‘tight end’. 

 -- Soft hands, but a lot of uncontested receptions because his sneaky leak out off a fake block and sprint down the field activity sprung him wide-open a lot (the T.J. Hockenson effect). Defenses were so committed to the run it allowed Sternberger so much room to fake-block and go. 

 -- BONUS: Watching Texas A&M game tape for Sternberger, I saw a couple Cullen Gillaspia moments as the Texas A&M H-back/FB/TE…that’s who I’d be interested in working with as a TE. Three inches smaller than Sternberger, but much faster and agile…and barely used more than as a blocker in 2018. Now, is a member of the Houston Texans where he will be a fullback scrapping to make the team. 

 -- Sternberger has a wiry body type, but he’s fairly strong/tough. Has good balance taking on hits and staying on his feet with the ball. 

 -- Quick get-off on the snap for a tight end.

 -- Didn’t run many ‘normal’ tight end routes…like five-yard outs or five-yards and turnaround to make a bang-bang catch and get blown up by the covering linebacker or safety. Hard to see him in that role…but part of it might be his QB/offense couldn’t do much on real timing passes with a bad passing QB. 

 -- Most all his receiving damage is slipping out and beating no coverage…coverage that assumes he’s going to block because it’s most likely a running play by choice or the QB taking off. 

 -- I just watched Josh Oliver for a ‘Quick Hit’ session right before I did the Sternberger study, and I thought -- I’d rather have Oliver in the NFL. 

Oliver runs real TE routes. Has better hands under duress (but Jace is good too). Oliver has more of a tight end body. 

Sternberger is faster off the snap (Oliver is stiff/slow), but running medium-deep, Oliver gains speed as he goes – Oliver ran a faster 40-time and 10-yard/20-yard than Sternberger. 

Not to dismiss Sternberger, but I’ll take Josh Oliver…only I’ll have more fantasy interest in the decent guy working with Aaron Rodgers – but that’s if he can get into the rotation. 

Jace Sternberger, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

 -- John Mackey Award semi-finalist for 2018, did not make the final three finalists. Was an All-SEC 1st-team and national 1st-team tight end in 2018. 

 -- 10 TDs in 2018…half of them against Northwestern State, UAB, and Louisiana-Monroe. 

 -- Led Texas A&M in catches, yards, and TDs in 2018. 

 -- Measurables:

6’4.0”/251, 9.75” hands, 32.1” arms

4.75 40-time, 2.82 20-yard, 1.70 10-yard

4.31 shuttle, 7.19 three-cone

17 bench press reps, 31.5” vertical, 9’5” broad jump

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Jace Sternberger Most Compares Within Our System:

I was a bit more impressed with Brate back in the day than Sternberger, and that’s not a slam at Sternberger…just trying to feel my way to how to value/compare him. 

Garrett Graham was more a of a slow but reliable receiving threat. 

Maxx Williams did more downfield work but was painfully slow for a top TE prospect. None of these guys jump out at me as a perfect comp for Sternberger…in my mind. He’s more an amalgamation of all of them to some degree. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

*Drafted #75 overall by Green Bay*

NFL Outlook:   

This re-look didn’t make me feel any better about Sternberger. In fact, I’m feel a twinge worse. I fear he’s more WR-minded than TE…and he’ll have a hard time transitioning that to a full-time/starting TE in the NFL. Perhaps, he gets used as just a passing game tight end…but that’s rare for a non-Jordan Reed ‘move’ type TE prospect. Sternberger is not a Jordan Reed-type. 

Sternberger has a feel to me that he got over on the scouting process by having 10 TDs/big numbers (for a CFB TE) in the SEC and everyone went right past the fact that he did so looking more like a WR than TE…and that a lot of his big plays were tricky fake-blocks and go that defenses hardly covered him on…hoping the QB wouldn’t notice him. 

Sternberger is not without talent…it’s just that I fear his style is not ready for the NFL that wants a more traditional, bully TE. Could be Sternberger adds 5-10 pounds of muscle to his frame and transitions into it, but what got him here is free range speed going down field on medium and deep routes – we don’t know if he can transition to a traditional TE short game, and take big hits as a tight end weapon over the middle. 

5/26/2019