NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: RB Terrell Watson, Azusa-Pacific

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

You have to fly by your scouting instincts here with Terrell Watson…and scouting instincts are scary, and often wrong.

You cannot watch tape of Watson at Azusa Pacific and glean much of anything. He is a 240-pound man who runs a 4.5+ 40-time playing in a low-low-level of D2 competition. SO…OF COURSE, he is going to rush for 2,000+ yards in a season (2,212 rushing yards in 2014). SO…OF COURSE, he is going to shatter the record books at the school. SO…OF COURSE, people are going to compare him to famed ex-NFL star/Azusa RB Christian Okoye. I’m not wowed by any of this. I expect a massive body with NFL speed to destroy D2 competition.

What do you want me to tell you about the tape? He’s 240-pounds and runs a 4.5+ playing D2. He gets the ball, runs up the middle, and outruns guys or is hard to bring down. Duh. There is little to take away scouting his tape or stats. His Pro Day confirmed he is NFL-ready in size-athleticism. All you can do is the simple math: 240-pounds + 4.5+ speed = you want on your NFL team if possible. There’s not a lot more to it than that.

However, I would like to introduce a couple of things that create some doubt for anyone getting too excited here with Watson as a sleeper—and he is for-sure an NFL Draft sleeper. Possibly, a terrific sleeper. There are two main issues that I see:

1) His desire to play football?

Watson has impeccable character. He has a body that generates daydreams of a classier LeGarrette Blount. There’s plenty to love. The question is whether Watson loves football enough for what’s to come.

Watson does not watch or follow the NFL. He is almost clueless about it…his internal desire for pro football is potentially ‘not high’. He loves his school and playing football there, but it’s another thing to jump into a grueling, often illogical, short career span of an NFL RB. His lifelong desire is to be on the police force as a part of a police S.W.A.T. unit.

Let’s say he goes undrafted. How hard does he want to grind to make a team and play special teams after breezing through D2 in a sport/job he has no hard desire for? One mini-camp at the next-level may decide that for him. I’m not saying I have any inside knowledge. I'm just reading tea leaves and speculating. He’s a very thoughtful, earnest kid…and I don’t think he sees football as life and death or salvation…not at all.

2) Finesse runner?

Watson is not a bruiser by nature. He is a finesse runner. He did not have to grind and smash for extra yards at the D2 level. He’s like a high schooler playing grade schoolers at Azusa with his massive body and NFL-speed. Watch his tape—it’s a lot of untouched runs up the middle. It’s plenty of cutbacks from traffic, and then racing around to daylight...things he can do at the D2 level that he won’t be able to in the NFL.

What you don’t see on tape: Him using his power to humiliate opponents. He isn’t looking for a fight because he can breeze by you, or tries to. I expected to see tape of him carrying five guys on his back on every other play…you did not see much at all. Not many views of him steam rolling defenders…he more tries to evade them.

This all may stem from his internal wiring. Not that he is afraid—he wants to be on the S.W.A.T. unit. It’s just that football is not ‘life and death’ to him...maybe. You would also suspect he would desire to transfer to a bigger school if the NFL fire burned in his belly. He did not.

Again, I don’t know the man. I am just putting pieces together before anyone makes a larger investment. I want a chance to look at the big man on my roster for sure. If it costs me a 3rd or 4th-round pick, I am not likely willing to pay that price.

You don’t see people like this come into the NFL often…240-pound guys who run like nimble 220+ guys. He’s arguably as fast as Melvin Gordon according to the stopwatches. At 240-pounds, you have to take that seriously. You also get perfect character…there are no issues here. You also have what might be a limited power runner in the NFL, not interested in the power game, with so-so hands in the passing game…and potentially no burning desire to be a part of this.

You want to take a look, but you have to be careful on the price tag.

Terrell Watson, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

There is no sense even looking at the on-field numbers. Azusa is a low-level D2 school playing low-level D2 opponents, and Watson smacked them around…which is what you want and expect. So, box ‘checked’. 2,212 yards last season with 29 TDs.

You’ve seen players roll the D2 level and disappear quickly during the NFL Draft process. Watson will not. If he were 215-200 pounds he might be lost in the draft shuffle, but at 240-pounds you have to stop and consider the possibilities at the next level. He was solid at his Pro Day all the way through, but we didn’t get reliable agility times; which scares me. I feel like they are being hidden and generously speculated upon…at least I fear they might be. We can only assume from tape and the other Pro Day clues that he possesses solid enough agility for the NFL…with risk that it is not that agile, and he’s just a straight-ahead runner only.

However, if his agility is special…then it really forces you to make a late 3rd-round look at this specimen. That’s the part that is a little up in the air, but let’s assume his agility is just average for his size/speed…and we’ll adjust ratings if it turns up he’s better (or worse than average in expected agility).

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Terrell Watson Most Compares Within Our System:

When I watch Watson on tape, and look at his data, Trent Richardson comes to mind—only it’s the ‘bad’ Trent Richardson from the past two years…not the one who crushed the SEC and had hope as an NFL rookie. Being oversized and NFL-fast is wonderful, but if you dance around a lot behind the line in the NFL…you’re in trouble.

We could be wrong here, because there is so much theory involved in this particular scouting study, but Watson is on the verge of being just a short-yardage guy at best in the NFL. Not an interesting weapon for three downs.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Projections on Watson are all over the board, but more towards the back end of the draft…the unknown paralyzes most on these types of small school guys. He’s worth more than that on his amazing size-speed combo, but there are so many ‘big guys who can run’ entering the NFL that it’s not as novel as it used to be. My guess is he is a later round pick, and not left undrafted.

If I were an NFL GM, I have an interest and I’m keeping tabs, but I am not paying up for a unique, but possibly one-dimensional runner with questionable desire for all this.  

NFL Outlook:   

Boy, so much on what team he goes to and how much rope he is given. As a middle of draft selection, he might start working right away as part of a duo or trio RB system. If he goes undrafted, then I don’t see him in the league for long. The grind and special teams route just doesn’t seem like a fit.

There is definitely a raw piece of clay here. Hopefully, it all works out for Watson in the end.

3/22/2015