NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I don't see it. I want to see it. It felt like I could see it, but in the end I don't see it.

I felt like Donte Moncrief was going to be a 'sleeper' in this draft, after a few glimpses of him at the NFL Combine, but the more I look at the data and watch the tape on him, I only see a fringe 3rd-4th WR for an NFL team...a WR worthy of being in the NFL, but not one who is going to make a huge impact.

There's a chance I am wrong. The computer sees him as decent, and maybe good. I see him as more mediocre at best. The athleticism is there. He ran a 4.40 at the NFL Combine. He had a 39" vertical with an 11'0" broad jump. He's a nice athlete. To be honest, the data is pretty decent. What scares me is watching Moncrief play on tape.

Moncrief has a nice size at 6'2"+ and 220-pounds. However, he looks more like a thin-framed, frail WR, than a physically thicker one. That's just at a glance. Once I watch the tape, I see a WR playing with a little hesitation. I hate to say 'afraid', but that's the only way I can classify it for your visual imagery. He looks a little (or a lot) hesitant and tentative.

I see the athleticism and physical skills Moncrief has. He's going to be fine in college as a 6'2", 220+ pound WR who runs a 4.40 time. He's very graceful and fluid running. You can watch a highlight package and see some really nice plays where he races/pulls away form defenders on long passes. However, what I immediately detected was a more skittish player. I cannot put my hands on the best way to describe what I see. It's just one of those, "I know it when I see it" things.

I watch him block, and he kinda dances with the defender, not really laying into him (which is not a first for a WR, so not too much of a deduction). He catches the ball and appears more desirous of heading out of bounds, or pre-curling up into any hit. He catches many passes all arms and into his gut, versus snatching balls out of the air and taking off. I just was totally turned off by his tape.

Donte Moncrief, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Moncrief's SEC output was a little up and down, but respectable-to-good, that's why our computer likes him more than I do. He was a decent SEC performer overall, but a little choppy looking at the details. 

The past two seasons vs. LSU: 5.5 catches, 139.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game (both 100+ yard games)

The past two seasons vs. Alabama: 4.0 catches 49.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game

The past two seasons vs. Texas A&M: 3.5 catches for 38.0 yards and 0.5 TDs per game

The past two seasons in bowl games: 6.0 catches for 77.0 yards, 0.5 TDs per game

He's been OK in the SEC, but very hard to get a read on. Typically, we can pick up on a performance patterns good or bad, but Moncrief's data is like a dropped box of marbles rolling all over. I'm having a hard time drawing a conclusion of 'sleeper' or mediocre for the NFL.

Athletically, he is very good, perhaps great. He is 6'2"+, 220+ pounds and ran a 4.40 40-time with a nice 1.50 10-yard split. He can jump out of the gym with a 39" vertical and 11'0" broad jump. His agility times were mediocre, which holds back some of the 'awesome' athlete label.

Factor into the speed-athleticism package a kinda flimsy 13 bench press reps, and you get a WR who will produce some numbers through his terrific athleticism but doesn't possess the body-frame or aggression to go 'big time' at the next level. The aggressive 'knock' is my visual (which is dangerous) mixed with some of the data strength-size=performance metrics.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Donte Moncrief Most Compares Within Our System:

Robert Meachem makes sense as a comparison, as does Devin Thomas. Bigger WRs, who just always played smaller than their size indicated. They were NFL deep threats only, not guys who can work all over the field...they aren't that interested in contact. I think the team that winds up with Moncrief is going to be let down in the end, but he does have NFL-worthy athleticism.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2014 NFL Draft Outlook:

Most see Donte Moncrief as a 3rd-round pick, with a 'sneaky' 2nd-round potential selection on the table. I've learned to follow the mainstream thinking for where players will be picked. Moncrief is going to slip by as someone who seems like he is better than he really is. I could see a scout 'checking the box' of approval based upon his measurables and the fact that he was a solid SEC performer...and these are all good things. We just see a line of data, and a visual, that suggests he should be more of a 5th+ round WR, and a problem in the more physical NFL.

If I were an NFL GM, I guess I'm out of the mix on Moncrief. I'm not going 2nd, 3rd, or 4th-round, and he'll be long gone by the time I would consider about taking a flyer on him. I just sense trouble here. I may have egg on my face later. We'll see.

NFL Outlook:   

At best, he gives you a Robert Meachem early-Saints career version...a disappointing, but useful WR who made a big/long play from time to time. At worst, you are getting Devin Thomas 2.0 blowing up in your face.

3/30/2014