NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

It's pretty evident that Austin Seferian-Jenkins is not going to participate in any measurable pre-Draft workouts due to his foot injury. That really 'sucks' for us because we can not properly use all the mathematics we want to utilize to make a scouting 'call' on Seferian-Jenkins. It doubly-sucks because Seferian-Jenkins might be an elite NFL TE prospect.

There are two pieces of data we 'know' for sure:

(1) Seferian-Jenkins is a physically massive TE prospect. He is a legit 6'5"+ and has played at between 260-270 pounds. He is an absolute physical force of a TE on the football field.

(2) Seferian-Jenkins has tremendous receiving hands. He has large 10"+ sized hands, and he knows how to use them. He snatches the ball with his hands (vs. trapping against his body), and is comfortable making catches in traffic and with defenders on his back. You'll see Seferian-Jenkins making one-handed grabs as well. I don't have any doubts on his catching ability for the next level.

Those are things we 'know'. What we don't know is how fast or agile Seferian-Jenkins is. He appears to be at least above-average in speed, as he's often the focus of defensive attention in the passing game, but still manages to get open short and deep. I emphasize 'short and deep' because on tape you will see Seferian-Jenkins line up as a traditional TE on the line of scrimmage half the time, and the other half he used like Jimmy Graham...lining up as a stand up wideout...a huge stand up wideout...like Graham.

Seferian-Jenkins is not Vernon Davis in athleticism, and he probably isn't Jimmy Graham either, he's a lesser version of Graham if I had classify him athletically...and that's not necessarily a 'diss' on Seferian-Jenkins. He probably runs a 4.7+ 40-time, but I think there might be a secret upside with him if he sheds 5-10 and/or adds muscle...like Graham. He has many of the 'known' attributes of a future elite NFL TE prospect, but if speed-agility-vertical are just 'OK' now, perhaps they'd be much better minus 5-10 pounds, plus reduced body fat. Seferian-Jenkins doesn't have much muscle definition in his arms, but he did post 20 reps on his bench press. A more dedicated, better physically trained Seferian-Jenkins might be an elite TE prospect all the way around...and an NFL team might make him into that.

Even with his body today, you can just see on tape that he is a dominant, difference-making TE. I watched them all...Ebron, Amaro, Fiedorowicz, et al. There is something positively different about how Seferian-Jenkins works and imposes on the football field. He may or not be a future NFL elite, but he's better than any of else in the 2014 TE class.

There have been whispers about Seferian-Jenkins's attitude and effort. In 2013, he injured himself in a drunk-driving accident. He pled guilty to DUI and served a day in jail. There has not been an avalanche of off-field stuff against him, but a couple minor notes.

Watching him perform as a run-blocker, he looks mostly 'OK'. He wasn't awesome, but Seferian-Jenkins held his own. He gives about a 50-75% effort blocking. You want to crush him a little for that, but most good-great receiving TEs are disinterested blockers.

Seferian-Jenkins did win the Mackey Award in 2013 for the nation's top TE performer, and he broke every TE record of note at the University of Washington. He also played basketball in his freshman year, averaging 7.2 minutes per game and 2.2 PPG, 2.1 Rebounds per game. Seferian-Jenkins is a great athlete, and is the best TE in this class...whether that equals a high-level of NFL success is a hot debate.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

One of Austin Seferian-Jenkins' best attributes from college is his ability as a TD producer. He finished his three-year career with 21 TDs, and scored at least one TD in 11 of his last 15 games. Seferian-Jenkins is one of those guys that the defenses knows is a end-zone/red-zone threat...and they cannot shut him out.

The knock against Seferian-Jenkins is that his 2013 output was down from his 2012 season. A look at his three-year numbers:

3.0 catches, 37.5 yards, 0.67 TDs = Seferian-Jenkins 2013 (12 games)

5.3 catches, 65.5 yards, 0.53 TDs = Seferian-Jenkins 2012 (13 games)

3.2 catches, 41.4 yards, 0.46 TDs = Seferian-Jenkins 2011 (13 games)

The thing I would note here is that Seferian-Jenkins did receive a little more over-under double-coverage attention in 2013. He stayed in to block a little more as well. I didn't see anything where there was a major drops or 'effort' issue.

I did note, as I watched his tape: Washington starting QB Keith Price is not a very good QB. He was Seferian-Jenkins's QB for the past three seasons, and to me Price got worse as a passer every season...he has serious 'happy feet'. He is not the type of QB who is going to bring out the best in an Austin Seferian-Jenkins-type of weapon. Several times, on tape, I saw Seferian-Jenkins streaking open and Price not even trying to look in his direction. Price did not help Seferian-Jenkins's abilities go to any 'next level'.

There is no distinguishable 'bad' pattern in Seferian-Jenkins's career output, besides the 2013 decline. His performances were pretty steady no matter the competition he faced. Looking at his toughest matchups (2 games with USC, 3 games with Stanford, a game with LSU, and 3 bowl games), Seferian-Jenkins averaged:

4.4 catches, 53.8 yards, 0.33 TDs = Seferian-Jenkins (nine toughest career games)

Those output numbers above are a decent pace per game for a college TE, and a little more moderate in TD production.

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Austin Seferian-Jenkins Most Compares Within Our System:

You look at out system's comparison list and you have to stop and marvel. The 'elite' word is on the table with Seferian-Jenkins. However, I think the Jermaine Gresham projection may be more apropos...which would project him as a very solid NFL TE, not a great or elite one. 'Elite' tendencies are there, but are not assured.

Also note: This is a comparison using our physical measurables projection on speed-agility from the tape and past history of similar prospects. There is a large margin for error here because we are assuming quite a bit on his speed-agility.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

 “Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2014 NFL Draft Outlook:

Austin Seferian-Jenkins has committed the draft prospect cardinal sin (in the media)...he could not work out at the NFL Combine. That's an immediate downgrade in most draft analysts' eyes. Why? I have no idea. The draft community decided to fall in love with Eric Ebron, and there is no talking them out of it. Thus, Ebron is a top-10 overall pick projection, and Seferian-Jenkins is a mid 2nd-round one. Seferian-Jenkins is a better TE prospect than Ebron...far better...mostly because Ebron may be the most overrated prospect in the 1st-round. However, the NFL follows the media...so Seferian-Jenkins is likely to be a 2nd-rounder come draft day, I'd bet on it.

If I were an NFL GM, and I had a huge void at TE (like Green Bay or Atlanta), I would fly blind without the workout numbers, and draft Seferian-Jenkins and cross the my fingers. He's the only 'hope' in this class. He could be that good, plus everyone else in the class is pretty mediocre-bad. I wouldn't care if he could have been had with pick #40, I'll use pick #20 if I desperately need a TE just to make sure I'm not stuck without him. He may not work out, but I don't have many other options to choose from. I'll overpay for him in this draft, because TE market in 2014 is the complete opposite of the one at WR...the 2014 TE market is dry, and undersupplied.

NFL Outlook:   

Seferian-Jenkins will be a solid pro. Whether he rises to become that elite type of TE, we'll have to see what team he lands on. We may never know his true speed-agility times to work with, so it's hard to sure with surety if he leans elite, or leans mediocre in the end. Close your eyes and roll the dice...

4/24/2014