RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
10/19 SUN
-- Today’s Agenda...
9:30 amET game = JAX v. LAR
Sunday Morning Sit-Start Video Show 10:30amET-NoonET...access will post around 10amET
Final Week 7 projections update will post approx. 12:30pmET
-- Early Injury watch/news...
Josh Jacobs is a real game-time decision and I would not be surprised if they gave him the game off for the sake of the entire season/big picture. He’s got a calf issue and he is under the weather -- but if he feels good pre-game, I bet he pushes to ‘go’. Emanuel Wilson would expect to start in his place with Chris Brooks getting some work too...and if one gets ‘hot’ they could be the lead of their split. But strong lean to Wilson.
Stefon Diggs practiced in full to end the week, he is good to go for today.
Zach Ertz looks good enough to play (shoulder and calf). He’ll be Washington’s #1 today, most likely with Deebo & Friends out. Chris Moore is the most likely #1 WR but Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are in the mix too.
Mike Evans practiced in full on SAT. and appears to be back for MNF this week. Emeka Egbuka actually practiced (limited) as well. I can’t imagine EE plays, but they haven’t ruled him out yet.
More good news for Baker/Evans, et. al. -- the Lions will be down FOUR starting DBs for MNF. Kerby J., Maddox, Terrion and suspended Branch.
Arizona elevated RB D’Ernest Johnson...with Demercado OUT. It may be the end of the line in Arizona for Emari. D’Ernest enters a situation that doesn’t have any real great RBs at the head of it. ???? Maybe, maybe?
Jakobi Meyers is a true game-time decision. Very likely out with LV elevating WR Shedrick Jackson.
Dre Greenlaw has been activated by Denver; he will make his debut today...a big boost to an already stout defense. NYG is in some, I think.
DJ Moore and D’Andre Swift appear likely to play.
Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman are back for LAC’s defense.
Abdul Carter...game-time decision.
MIN LB Blake Cashman is back to try to shore up that bad run defense.
Indy has lost top CB Charvarius Ward to the IR, but as FF-interesting -- they signed Ameer Abdullah to the main roster. It’s not a straight shot that D.J. Giddens is the 2025/current handcuff to JT anymore.
Two HUGE returns from injury:
(1) OG Sam Cosmi, WSH is big for everyone there, especially for JCM.
(2) Massive DT T’Vondre Sweat changes the defense for TEN being back this week.
-- London game: LAR v. JAX
No Puka or Havenstein means the Rams are missing their 2nd and 3rd most important players. The Jags getting back their OC Hainsey is big.
A lot of signs are pointing to the Jags pulling the upset in this one. The two teams, statistically, are pretty evenly matched...but with LAR now missing two top players it’s a lean towards JAX but I have been waiting for the Rams to play an actual great/complete game instead of the slow start/solid finish games they’ve been having.
I’m not seriously betting it, but I think the Jags might win this one outright. I might put a couple bucks on JAX ML just for fun.
The only prop I played is a very minor hunch Travis Hunter has 50+ rec. yards this game.
-- Weather Check:
MIA at CLE = Winds already kicking up over 20mph early am. Rain to start approx. 9am. Likely strong, steady rain 9am-2pm. Winds 20+ mph entire game. A chance the rain could end near/right after kickoff. The ‘doomsday’ scenarios are off the table. Wind gusts 30-40mph could make it rough for kickers and QBs off-and-on. I could see the game being delayed until 1:30-2pmET to let the storm go by.
NO at CHI = Winds going up over 20mph early morning and staying that way all game. Rain has already started. Rain projected to stop a little before/right at kickoff. Could just bet wet and windy, but not too crazy windy. Wind gusts could get to 30+ MPH
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10/18 SAT
(3:55pmET)
-- Two RB notes of interest/urgency...
1) Green Bay elevated Pierre Strong off the practice squad for Sunday, which is odd given they have 3 RBs rostered already.
Josh Jacobs is ‘questionable’ with a calf and an illness/sickness, but he practiced in full Friday...but theoretically the Strong call up is some hedge on Jacobs??
Unknown.
BUT...the Jacobs and Wilson props moving or being taken off the board, so too the game ATS itself.
Could be all misguided hysteria, but...
2) Dallas elevated RB Malik Davis off the practice squad to the main roster, and supposedly that is with the intention that he is the backup to Javonte Williams.
If that is the reason why, then Jaydon Blue is failing out (as predicted) and I can see Malik Davis being a legit handcuff definitely over Blue...way over Blue.
FYI, Phil Mafah is not back practicing yet (per a source). If you were wondering.
-- MIA at CLE weather report latest...
Rain expected to begin around 11amET tomorrow.
High chance of rain at 12-1pmET.
Rain likely through 1st-half...and maybe through the whole game.
Wind projections 20-25mph
=====================
(7:16amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...all the remaining game reports planned to post.
Week 7 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see.
-- NBC Headline: Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak said he wants to give RB Kenneth Walker III “more opportunities” but does not want to “discount” RB Zach Charbonnet and RB George Holani.
That statement seems to provide some hope for KW for some better FF opportunities, but then you read in the commentary: Kubiak also celebrated Walker’s improvement “as a practice player,” and for being “very intentional about the things we’re asking him to work on.” and I think...Seattle continues to respect Charbonnet’s overall game, finally. And they see the flaws in Walker’s game/they are not enslaved to him like prior regimes. They speak of and treat KW like a ‘piece’ not ‘the guy’.
This split is not going away/breaking towards heaving Walker.
And if Charbonnet ever starts breaking out in this Kubiak style offense...it could be Charbonnet who steals the majority workload...not the other way around.
-- Nick Wagoner/X: TE George Kittle will be full go on Sunday night, per Kyle Shanahan. No limitations. "No pitch count," Shanahan said. "George has rehabbed really well. He came back 100% and had a good week of practice, so we’ll space it out throughout the game but no pitch count."
Three notes to go-with...
1) We don’t know what the Mac and Kittle connection looks like, but it’s probably fine.
2) The Falcons have been a real shutdown on TEs this year, and ATL v. SF this week.
3) Kittle back. Jauan no injury designation this week. Small hits to Kendrick Bourne’s continued run of great numbers, but still no Pearsall and Mac at QB means KB is still very viable...but with limits because the ATL pass defense is nice.
-- Interesting trend note...
Michael Nania/X post: Jermaine Johnson has an incredible impact on #Jets defense
Jets in '25 with JJ on/off:
YPC allowed on designed rushes --
JJ on: 2.9
JJ off: 4.4
% of pass plays resulting in a QB hit --
JJ on: 12.3%
JJ off: 5.8%
Curious to see how Jets D changes as long as he's healthy
-- Might there be three QB controversies going on right now...maybe?
Carson Wentz starting over JJ McCarthy this week...it could be JJM is not fully healthy and they are being extra careful...or they could be using the injury to drag their feet and let Wentz play more/take the job. If they were so desperate for JJM they might be pushing for him a bit more to get out there and play...but they aren’t. Another Wentz start is another opportunity for him to show that he should be the starter. I personally don’t think JJM is getting surpassed, but I can’t ignore the optics this past few weeks. There’s not a lot of 100% confident wording from O’Connell for JJM...a lot of corporate speak.
Jacoby Brissett is getting another start...and Kyler may be ‘good enough’ (healthy enough) to play this week, but the Cards may want to see where this Brissett thing goes. If Brissett shines and/or gets a win this week, I would not be shocked if they held Kyler out for another week to not overtly ‘reveal’ they are looking at a change.
Another opportunity for Mac Jones to show off. In this one, I don’t think Kyle wants there to be a QB distraction...but Mac is playing so well, if he plays well again Week 7 -- he’s gonna force the conversation more every week.
...and a 4th QB thing might be underway if Justin Fields totally flops this week. Tyrod may not be far off from taking over.
...and a 5th might go in motion if Geno Smith is a disaster in a big loss to KC this week. There might be Kenny Pickett rumblings.
-- Just making sure everyone catches my announcement yesterday before I start talking about some day-to-day funny things about this ‘journey’. I want to attack it with humor and I want to share some stories of interest that are happening...but I want to be sure everyone is up-to-speed on the post from yesterday.
And again, thank you so much for all the email notes. It has been so wonderfully overwhelming that it will take me time to answer each one -- but I will answer each one!
https://ffmetrics.com/6030-my-rc-personal-medical-news-announcement
-- Did you know...
Ed Oliver’s last three regular season games played (two in 2025, and his last game in 2024): 4.3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2.8 TFLs per game.
He’s only played two games in 2025, so far, due to injury...but in those two games, the PPG IDP scoring -- he’s the #1 PPG IDP DL (but again it’s just 2 games).
Speaking of Bills DLs and TFLs...
Deone Walker’s last three games this season: 3.8 tackles, 0.2 sacks, 2.3 TFLs per game.
The Bills DTs are starting to ‘rise’.
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10/17 FRI
(6:47amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 7 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
-- Week 7 TNF First Reactions...
I had a feeling all week Cincy was gonna win this game. Said it/picked Bengals ATS on ‘All Picks’ THU am and then discussed it more on the pre-game betting overview. I wasn’t willing to bet on it but I just felt like this was coming after watching the ‘new Cincy’ on tape vs. GB with Flacco at the helm...and I just don’t think the Steelers are that good. I didn’t know Flacco was going to go totally crazy on the Steelers, but it was nice to see, as I have been a Flacco supporter for a couple of years now.
Flacco will be in the waiver wire discussion next week. I picked him up for free from free agency in a few deeper leagues on Thursday...for a warm body/depth, but also in case something like this happened -- ‘this’ being someone finally realized to just throw the ball to Chase-Higgins all the time.
I hit three out of 4 of my player props in this game, but as usual...the one that fell short for the 4-way parlay (Darnell Washington rec. yards OVER) was also the one I bet the most on individually...so, no parlay hit this week and a -17% ROI for the night on the loss driven by the one big loss. Watching the all-bets-winning throw to him wide-open downfield in the 4th-quarter get fingertip deflected away by Logan Wilson was ‘special’.
This Steelers loss opens the door for the Ravens to go on a run with everyone back healthy in Week 8 (Ravens on a Week 7 bye).
Jaylen Warren reestablished he’s the no-doubt lead RB for the Steelers/an RB2. He pretty well dispatched Kenneth Gainwell last week...and this game he fully rid of any notion that Gainwell was any touch count threat.
-- There is a growing Week 7 weather concern for Miami at Cleveland...
70-80% chance of rain
Winds +/- 20mph...and 20+ mph starts to get up to where it affects the kicking game and passing with weaker-armed QBs but combine it with the rain and it’s a real mess.
Wind gusts could kick up to 30-40mph
Things change fast with the weather in Cleveland, off the ‘lake effect’, etc., but the Sunday doomsday prediction were a little overblown early in the week, as always happens, but ‘something’ not great on the predicted weather has been hanging in there for Sunday.
-- Interesting NextGen speed times on CMC...
https://www.ninersnation.com/san-francisco-49ers-news/151620/has-christian-mccaffrey-lost-a-step
-- The Mike McCoy factor for Sunday?
https://www.nfl.com/news/mike-mccoy-titans-vs-patriots-sunday-is-interim-coach-bump-real
-- Science?: https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/s/FyqhSI6yZR
-- Our internal 2025 O-Line grades through Week 6...
Top 5 BEST:
LAR
BUF
CAR
WSH
DEN
Top 5 WORST:
CLE
CIN
BAL
ARI
NE
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10/16 THU
(8:34amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
All Picks ATS Week 7 will post by NoonET
Week 7 projections update planned approx. 7pmET range after TNF inactives.
TNF Week 7 tonight...my overview of the game and what I am betting, if anything, will post 6-8pmET.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see (but DK and FD have been very late/not early posting things so...prob. THU we'll have more things to consider).
-- I did not know this. If you did not, this will be a real shock...and not good for the Chiefs, football-wise, for this season:
https://x.com/burackbobby_/status/1978527913667703151?s=46
-- I saw an article, from a serious football journalism news group...exploring the desire/call for the firing of John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott...and then media members debating why it might/should happen.
Are they insane?
Three weeks ago, people were debating the Bills going undefeated...two losses in a row later, and now we’re firing the coach? NFL fans and media are absolutely hysterical reactionary vessels. The emotion of last week’s game result must be acted upon. The Giants are now great, Daboll needs to stay, Dart jersey sales through the roof...and Sean McDermott needs to be fired. Next week, it will change 180 again.
I cannot believe the way general football fans and the football media continue to act. They never learn. It’s the same reaction I’ve seen for my 15+ years doing this...ONLY it is getting worse every year.
John Harbaugh has lost half his team to injury and his QB, and is thus losing games like never before. Why should he be fired for this injury-induced slow start? And I would still pick the Ravens to win the AFC North today.
-- Connor Hughes (a reporter I saw on Twitter, I think) named Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, and Jakobi Meyers as the WR trade candidates with the most ‘chatter’.
Olave and Jakobi have been bandied about in trade rumors going back to the preseason, but Jaylen Waddle...this is new/strange a little bit, to me. Some team, Miami or the trade partner, would have to take on some decent guaranteed money still due to Waddle. I want to say Miami won’t trade Waddle, but the silly things they did and huge cost taken on to dump Jalen Ramsey in the preseason...who knows what they’ll do in the cost cutting measures in dealing Waddle to prepare for the future.
I think the most likely to-be-traded WRs that I’ve heard discussed from my contacts...
Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk
Calvin Ridley
Jakobi Meyers
Jaylen Reed (if he’s back healthy before the deadline)
Xavier Legette
Teams most likely to acquire a WR...
ATL
NYG
NE
PIT
-- I love this tweet/X
https://x.com/underdog/status/1978564378644406408?s=46
-- Do you want a long article/interview to read that will hold your attention/kill time this day:
-- Do you want a long article, to kill time today, but one that is not FF-related but is a bizarre football-related story?
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10/15 WED
(7:14amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on reports for the rest of the week.
Week 7 projections update planned between 7-9pmET.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see (but DK and FD have been very late/not early posting things so...prob. THU we'll have more things to consider).
-- NBC HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Chiefs OC Matt Nagy and Steelers OC Arthur Smith are “names to watch” for the Titans head coaching vacancy.
I mean...do I have to do another fictious ‘play’ script about what the Titans ownership meetings are, like what I wrote yesterday?
If they hire either of them any Cam Ward stock is fully tanked.
The Titans are VERY poorly run. The odds they butcher this are HIGH.
-- A look into the Kenneth Walker ‘problem’...
He looks great on tape (and the efficiency numbers back that up), so I am also quite curious about what Seattle was doing. I guess this report is an explanation that makes some sense but is frustrating for FF purposes/planning.
-- A little nugget item on Jauan Jennings...
https://x.com/chase_senior/status/1978159552362336286?s=46&t=AGzQUcOrI_LN1UIXKso9Sw
-- It’s a little apples-and-oranges, but warms my heart anyway...
https://x.com/underdog/status/1978143767510032708?s=46
-- RB Trends (Weeks 2-6, exclude Week 1):
PPR PPG (Wks 2-6)
26.4 = JT
25.0 = CMC
25.0 = Bjian
22.6 = J Jacobs
21.4 = Achane
*Surprises in the top 20: (#8) Javonte, (#14) = Swift, (#16) Gainwell, (#19) Rachaad
RB Pass Targets (Wks 2-6)
50 = CMC
34 = Achane
25 = Javonte
24 = Bijan
24 = AK
Rushing TDs (Wk 2-6)
7 = JT
5 = Skattebo
5 = J Jacobs
4 = Gibbs
4 = Cook
4 = Montgomery
4 = Rachaad
20+ yard runs (Wk 2-6)
5 = K Walker
4 = Gibbs
3 = JT
3 = Bijan
3 = Javonte
3 = Dowdle
3 = Judkins
3 = Breece
Best YPC (Wk 2-6) *50 or more carries
6.5 = Bijan
5.9 = Dowdle
5.7 = D Montg
5.5 = JT
5.5 = Javonte
Worst YPC (Wk 2-6) *50 or more carries
2.3 = Charbonnet
3.0 = Ch Brown
3.1 = CMC
3.4 = Saquon
3.7 = AK
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10/14 TUE
(8:24amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report midday, possibly one late night.
Working on Week 7 Projections most of the 9-5 day...their debut posts between 6-8pmET
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET+. Access posts 8-8:15pmET.
-- First reaction to Week 6 MNF 2x...
My biggest memory of this game will be: I lost my biggest single Player Prop bet of the season (so far) by 0.5 yards. 7.5 receiving yards over for JCM...he got an early pass and took it for 7 yards...then never saw another pass again. That’s my betting season 2025. Really, I take that back, my betting season would’ve been he got the 2nd catch for the needed yards and it would’ve been called back because of an OL lined up wrong. I retired from betting after the game last night. I will not bet again until at least Wednesday...maybe Thursday. Am I gonna quit because I lost by a half a yard? No. Apparently DraftKings wants the money I took from them last year back. Ten more weeks left to climb out of the hole...or donate more to DK and FD.
Aside from that, I was surprised/not surprised that Washington lost to the Bears...but I go back to -- there’s like 2-3 truly awful teams in the NFL and then the other 29-30 teams are all separated by penalties called or not called in any game they are matched up in to determine the winner.
The Bears played a really good game. Their #32 ranked run defense (prior) looked like the best run defense in the league last night (getting back TJ Edwards and Gordon were more massive than I accounted for). That felt like a turning point game for Chicago...they are no longer ‘bad’...they’re ‘OK’ now. But let me re-watch the tape.
I was not surprised by the Falcons thumping the Bills. That wasn’t a ‘shocking upset’...the Falcons, as I have been pushing for all year, are really very good...and the Bills are a bit of a ‘fraud’ top team. Denver has the best defense in the NFL, to my eyes...closely followed by the Falcons. How different that game might have been if the opening play Bijan fumble wasn’t nullified by a defensive penalty. But Atlanta earned it...so did the Bears. It’s a new NFL. Falcons-Bears-Giants beat down the Bills-Commanders-Eagles this week. Denver is lucky the Jets didn’t beat them. The Rams barely scraped by the Ravens JV team. There are no great teams in the NFL. We have nearly achieved that every team is a .500 team...and the healthy of their O-Line and QB at any given time separates them.
-- NBC HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Titans are expected to name Mike McCoy as their interim HC.
There must have been a meeting that went like... Look, we’re firing Brian Callahan...the worst coach in the NFL...or was. Now, can we top ourselves? Can we find the worst idea/coach to be our interim coach? Gimme some names!
Nathaniel Hackett? Ahh, he’s unavailable. Nice try/thought. I mean guys, dig deep...I know you can find a terrible interim coach! You. Can. Do. Eeeeet.
What about Mike McCoy? He’s awful...and we had already hired him as part of Callahan’s staff! He’s already on payroll!! It’s easy...no real paperwork or interviews needed. Excellent thinking! We did it!! The public will not even remember the Callahan tragic comedy mistake of a hire we made when they get a load of how bad Mike McCoy is!
-- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Jets WR Garrett Wilson (knee) is expected to miss “a couple weeks.”
I think FF is gonna lose Garrett, Puka, and Egbuka for Week 7...a huge shift in the power dynamics of teams...3 of the top FF WRs ‘gone’ in the snap of a finger. That’s why I encourage everyone to keep playing the game...injuries and bye weeks and pure chaos hits and even wobbly teams can start winning and buying more time to fix/enhance their teams.
We’re hitting midseason, when many league mates start to hate their bad record teams and stop taking things as seriously...to our advantage. It’s a game...keep playing the game, don’t quit. You see how the past 2 weeks have gone, for many of us? Stay with it. Keep grinding.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Rashee Rice is eligible to return from suspension in Week 7 against the Raiders.
He’s back...and should hit the ground running. JuJu and Tyquan take the first production hits. Hollywood as well. Those three WRs will be random events, mostly useless for FF.
-- WR Trends...Weeks 2-6, excluding Week 1.
PPR PPG (Weeks 2-6)
23.5 = ARSB
23.1 = Puka
22.9 = Pickens
21.9 = JSN
21.4 = Ja’Marr
Surprises (maybe) in the top 20? #17 Tre Tucker, #19 Doubs...both off their 3 TD games.
Targets (Wks2-6)
54 = Puka
52 = Chase
51 = Olave
47 = G. Wilson
47 = Davante
Surprises (maybe) in the top 15? #7 AJ Brown, #10 Keenan, #12 Jeudy
20+ Yard Catches (Weeks 2-6):
10 = Pickens
10 = JSN
08 = JJefferson
08 = Tet McMillan
07 = Egbuka, Davante, Ridley...yes, Ridley...
TDs (Weeks 2-6)
6 = ARSB
6 = Pickens
4 = Chase
4 = Odunze
4 = Metcalf
4 = Doubs
Rushing Yards for WRs (Wks 2-6)
53 = Worthy
52 = Malik Wash.
51 = Puka
45 = Golden
29 = Tucker
27 = Savion Williams
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10/13 MON
(6:21amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Week 6 TNF Game Report posts midday.
Week 6 Executive Report gets worked on all day to plan to post between 6-8pmET.
Week 6 MNF betting overview.
*Two MNF games tonight...7:15pmET BUF at ATL, and 8:15pmET CHI at WSH
-- Injury watch after Sunday:
Emeka Egbuka = early estimates are that he might be out until Week 9-10.
Puka Nacua = early estimates are that he might miss Week 7 (then bye Week 8).
Garrett Wilson = Up in the air...could be no practice and try to play Week 7 or could be a 1–2-week knee sprain...or could be a worst-case scenario of a month+ long issue.
Marvin Harrison Jr. = Concussion...may get clear for Week 7 or misses 1 game.
-- NBC Headline: 49ers WR Jauan Jennings told reporters he is playing with five broken ribs and high and low ankle sprains.
I mean, this would’ve been nice to know for those of us that played him since he got cleared to play this week. JJ played off-and-on in Week 6 but was not a factor in the game...now we know more on ‘why’. I wonder if league sanctions will come down on SF for injury reporting.
And there’s also word that JJ is pushing to play for contract incentives, since he didn’t get a new contract extension like he wanted.
-- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports Omarion Hampton (ankle) is expected to miss “more than four weeks.”
The Kimani Vidal train is ‘on’, but also a trade may be in the offing.
-- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Saints are not expected to trade Alvin Kamara.
It won’t be AK going to LAC. He is not going anywhere. They asked him about being traded, out of respect, and he says he wants to stay/finish his career with the Saints...and they will honor that.
Which means AK is mostly dead for FF, as he has been this season, now splitting touches strong and not a full lead back anymore...and Kendre Miller’s value just got clipped -- he’s just another handcuff waiting for the lead to get hurt to have a chance.
-- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Brock Bowers (knee) is “unlikely” to play in Week 7 against the Chiefs.
He is all but sure to miss Week 7 then a Week 8 bye, then rejoins this mess.
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