RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

10/5 SUN

 (8:23amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

9:30amET: MIN-CLE from London

Sunday Morning Sit-Start livestream video show 10:30amET-NoonET

Week 5 FINAL projections update 12:30pmET approx.

Any last second bets I see.

 

 -- Early Injury news for Sunday (not much this morning)...

Calvin Ridley (knee and elbow) is likely to play, but ‘who cares’.

CB Will Johnson will be back...a big help for the Cards-DST, which has a golden matchup with Tennessee today. His CB running mate Max Melton is ‘Questionable’

OT Jack Conklin (CLE) is expected to play, which is a help for his rookie QB debut today...and better OL news than what the Vikings have, who are devastated on their O-Line with injuries.

 

 -- Sun am game CLE v. MIN

This is quite the interesting game: Carson Wentz and completely battered O-Line and not 100% defense take on the Browns, who are going with their rookie QB Dillon Gabriel in a debut.

I have no idea what to expect from this game.

The Vikings should win it, under normal circumstances...but with all their injuries and Wentz at QB it’s all in flux.

Given the Vikings issues, the Browns are probably on equal footing or the better team today...but they are rolling with a rookie QB debut against Brian Flores.

My heaviest assumption/projection for this game: The Browns rely on their defense and a run game with the most simple, safe, quick passing (mini Tua) to play a game of...let’s see which defense can force the QB to make a mistake or punch out a fumble on an RB. And in that case penalties and turnovers will select a winner.

Low output passing games.

Higher rush attempt run games.

Lots of punts and some field goals.

The pass game RBs could have a surprisingly good target day...Dylan Sampson and Zavier Scott.

Jordan Mason and Quinshon Judkins are in for 15+ carries easily, unless Mason gets stonewalled at every turn and they have to come off that for more Zavier Scott to spread out the offense. The Vikings run defense is really bad, so Judkins may have a day like Kenneth Gainwell.

Dillon Gabriel’s quick passing, Tua-like ways could neutralize any pass rush of the Vikings.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Cardinals will “ride hot hand” Sunday against the Titans.

NBC Commentary: Fowler then speculates that the early-down work is what will primarily be split into the “hot hand,” while Emari Demercado is likeliest to see clear passing situations. That leaves Michael Carter and Bam Knight likely fighting for the same role on early downs, with the eventual victor potentially siphoning goal line work as well. The report seems to back up head coach Jonathan Gannon’s words earlier in the week that all three backs would have a role. This appears to be a messy situation for fantasy purposes, one that managers should avoid unless absolutely necessary.

RC NOTE: This falls in line with the way I’ve projected it all week. Basically, nobody knows what’s gonna happen with the touches. A split is the plan...but if one gets ‘hot’ it could change everything. Demercado the most likely for the pass game stuff, so he’s my one of the 2, if I had to pick one, but it’s a pure dart throw.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Saints QB/TE Taysom Hill (knee) is expected to play in Week 5 and “have a role.”

Taysom is obviously ‘ready’ for action, but man was his injury wicked. I can’t believe he’s gonna play already...and he might get plays...the level depending on how he looks on his first chances.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Raiders TE Brock Bowers (knee) is “trending toward not playing” in Week 5 against the Colts.

Bowers likely ‘out’. Mayer is already out. Ian Thomas is what they got left, and then less then that from there.

 

 -- PK stats from Weeks 2-3-4 (ignoring Week 1)...

 

PK PPG Weeks 2-4:

13.3 = Myers, SEA

13.0 = McLaughlin, TB

13.0 = Shrader, IND

12.7 = Aubrey, DAL

12.7 = Gay, WSH

 

Most 50+ yd FGs made Weeks 2-4:

4 = McLaughlin

3 = Aubrey, Gay, Myers, Slye, Folk

 

Most FG attempts total (Weeks 2-4):

10 = McLaughlin, Shrader, Gay, Karty, Butker

09 = Myers, Romo

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

 

10/4 SAT

 (7:32amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

As many game reports as I can do/publish.

Week 5 projections update approx. 8-10pmET

Any Prop bets that pop up.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Deebo Samuel (heel) was removed from the injury report and will play in Week 5 against the Chargers.

I thought the two DNPs were precautionary from sources WED/THU...and Deebo is fully clear from the injury reports.

Then there is this note for Week 5: Deebo Samuel named offensive captain for Sunday.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Panthers coach Dave Canales said the team would open Jalen Coker’s (IR/quad) window to return ahead of Week 6.

Coker will join the team as a probable #2 target for Bryce, but as Coker returns next week (maybe) so does Xavier Legette and Ja’Tavion Sanders. I don’t know that Coker can really FF-matter with Bryce and this group behind T-Mac.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Saints QB/TE Taysom Hill (knee) and TE Foster Moreau (knee) are questionable for New Orleans’ Week 5 game against the Giants.

There is a growing chance Taysom plays this week. What we do not know is...whether Kellen Moore really cares. Taysom is an invention of Sean Payton and then that carried over to Dennis Allen, who was  on Payton’s staff. Moore is not from that tree. We don’t know what Moore will do with him.

If Taysom is activated, I bet he is some kind of the game plan against the Giants this week as the Saints desperately try to get their first win.

If I were the Saints...I would not play or activate Taysom at all...I’d keep him safe to trade to Denver. Why the-going-nowhere-Saints are not trading this older, expensive asset while they can, I have no idea.

For FF, we have to see a week of how Kellen Moore uses him. This is not good news for Juwan Johnson if/when it happens.

From Mike Triplett on X: Spoke to Saints’ Taysom Hill at length for the first time since December knee injury. Not only did he need ACL repair but also had the “posterolateral corner” repaired. He said it’s made up of four ligaments that meet to stabilize the outside of the knee, and he tore all of them.

Yikes.

What Kellen Moore said in August: https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/saints-kellen-moore-taysom-hill-quarterback-meetings/article_c9c286ed-7a12-4e80-841a-e2b00a867e33.amp.html

 

 -- There is so much talk about Jameson this week from Detroit...

https://www.mlive.com/lions/2025/10/lions-jameson-williams-shows-bounce-back-mentality-after-rough-week-4-outing.html?outputType=amp

I’m likely diving in again in most of my lineups.

 

 -- RB stats from Weeks 2-3-4 (ignoring Week 1)...

 

Top 5 PPR PPG:

25.6 = Taylor, IND

24.3 = CMC, SF

23.3 = Cook, BUF

21.3 = Gibbs, DET

21.3 = Bijan, ATL

 

Top 5 in targets:

33 = CMC, SF

21 = Achane, MIA

16 = Bijan, ATL

15 = Bucky, TB

15 = Javonte, DAL

15 = Breece, NYJ

15 = Benson, ARI

 

Lowest YPC with 30 or more carries:

1.8 = Charbonnet, SEA

2.5 = Ch Brown, CIN

2.8 = Dowdle, CAR

3.0 = Saquon, PHI

3.0 = Warren, PIT (NOTE for Week 6: https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-news/159746/steelers-get-good-news-on-jaylen-warren-injury-kenneth-gainwell-cleveland-browns)

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

FRI 10/3

 (6:17pmET)

 

 RB NOTES from Friday injury reports, etc.

 

 -- Like we projected in yesterday’s special report...Chuba Hubbard out this week and might be one more week after. The Carolina situation overall is a mess with several missing OLs. BUT Rico Dowdle is gonna start this week against one of the bottom 5 run defenses (Miami) this week, so he is a legit play. He has solid odds of being in the RB2 group this week.

 

 -- Arizona’s head coach continues to say ‘everyone is getting touches’. Practice reports yesterday had Demercado-Carter rotating as #1s.

Demercado and Carter are a bit like Woody Marks, stylistically, who thrived nicely against Tennessee last week (and ARI gets them this week). Demercado may be the most likely to be in that pass game role...and Demercado is 215 +/- pounds...Carter 200 +/-. Marks 205+.

If I had to bet on one of the Cardinals guys, it’s a pure blind guess I’d go with Demercado...hoping he gets the PPR and goal line action...to whatever degree there is that.

 

 -- Bucky Irving officially out this week. Rachaad White has a shot to be an RB1. RW is mostly hated among FF analysts so Sean Tucker is getting a lot of hype, and he’s great too -- but Rachaad is the quasi-starter already and the pass game protector...he may get a TON of snaps and touches here because TB needs it.

And if TB gets behind due to all their injuries...Rachaad in the passing game is a beautiful thing.

 

 -- Braelon Allen gone for most or all of 2025 now. Isaiah Davis is a talented #2 behind Breece Hall...and if Breece gets traded in a week or two (or maybe not at all), then Davis could be in a quite a spot.

 

 (6:37amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

Game reports throughout the day.

Week 5 projections update approx. 8-10pmET (waiting on west coast injury reports to finalize).

Any new betting items that pop up or special notes that need conveying.

 

 -- TNF first reactions...

I don’t think I’ll ever (real big money) bet on an NFL game again, after watching this. I’m not saying that because I bet it and lost and I’m whining. I purposefully did not bet this game/LAR. My urge, my metrics, the SF injuries -- everything pointed to the Rams at home. When it was so obvious (to me), I just stopped myself and literally said to myself, “Don’t do it.”

This season, when a situation is obviously all in one direction...more times than not, to a high degree, obvious teams are getting picked off. If that’s what it is, so be it. I’ll adjust my ‘pick’ strategy for it. It’s what makes the NFL great...you never know what is gonna happen week-to-week. The 49ers had no business really winning this game against a top Super Bowl contender, a complete team...but blocked kicks, goal line fumbles, penalties called or not called...I’ll stick to Player Prop betting.

I’ll especially stick to Player Prop betting since I hit all four of my Player Prop bets last night, and I parlayed them...so my first 4-for-4 ticket of the year. This is ‘comeback week’ for my betting that has been breakeven ATS and down in a hole on Player Props because of Malik Washington and a few other big single bets, always lost, always missing by a hair. I love my big Player Prop bets this week. But back to this game quick thoughts...

Mac Jones just earned himself $100M+ contract with that performance last night. The best I’ve ever seen Mac in the NFL. If NFL QBs just need 4-5 years to sort it out, see which ones stick with it and grind, then NFL teams shouldn’t be drafting QBs in the 1st-round anymore. I think this just started a QB controversy in SF, among the fan base...and maybe for Kyle too. Purdy’s injuries...they may now sit him out for weeks to let him heal but also see if Mac is it.

We had Kendrick Bourne as the ‘Outta nowhere WR’ of the week, a top 25 WR projection, a part of my 4-way Parlay hit...and several of you picked him up for a quick ‘Gainwell’ like play last night, in a pinch or on a hunch -- and BOOM! There is a path back into the season...you just gotta stick with it and keep trying things, taking advantage of situations. Fields...Stafford...Gainwell...Bourne...the struggling teams making moves are starting to get themselves back in the race.

The Rams losing the Philly on a blocked FG...then here a goal line fumble with under a minute remaining -- they should be (5-0), but now they have to figure out how to rally off this. I think they have a veteran enough team to do so. The NFC West is not over yet.

 

 -- I am seeing a lot of Jacory Croskey-Merritt hitting the waiver wires in leagues, for two reasons...

1) He’s perceived to be buried in a trio and of little use and won’t get out of it soon (it appears to folks). All people have seen is JCM in a trio, they know no other version of JCM...so, he’s not perceived as valuable. And he was a 7th-round pick, so ‘who cares’ about a generically OK RB in a trio?

2) With the Arizona RB duos situation, the chase for Tucker with the Bucky issue, and now the Dowdle potential...owners needed to drop someone to make room for the weekly flier, which makes sense -- and JCM seems like a smart idea to drop because of reason #1.

All I can say is... There will come a time when JCM is the lead and becomes an FF RB2 with upside to RB1, but probably more RB2 this season because they will split up carries but soon it will JCM taking 12-15+ carries and getting 2-3-4 catches (he’s quite good in the passing game) in games and maybe pushing that RB1 class.

It’s not ‘situational’...talent-wise, he’s wonderful.

So, when you ask me about picking up JCM off waivers or trading for him...I want in, but I just can’t tell you when it pays off. I just know when it happens, there will be no more JCM cheap deals or waiver times. Could be in 2-3 weeks...could be this week in a kinda must win vs. a heavyweight opponent with LAC, where Washington decides it’s time to take off the restrictor plates...

He's fringe waiver wire value/handcuff value in redraft (12tm).

He’s a weak RB2 thought with no momentum but some rookie hope-value in Dynasty trades.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Commanders WR Deebo Samuel (heel) did not practice on Thursday.

Two DNPs in a row for Deebo, but he might be just taking it easy to heal up for Sunday. I don’t think this is a doomed situation for the week. It may just be a protective situation. Maybe it’s wishful thinking. We’ll find out today. He’s working on the sidelines, just not in main practice.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Houston Chronicle’s Jon Alexander reports “there is no one who has told me they expect [Joe Mixon] (ankle/foot) to return this season.”

Chubb and Woody it is...

Might they make a deal for an RB? Maybe...but Houston has bigger problems to address than this RB duo, but many times coaches think they can fix a horrible O-Line issue with a new runner.  

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

 

THU 10/2

 (7:45amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

All the game recaps I can get done today, published randomly throughout the day.

Week 5 projections update 7pm+, after the inactives announced for TNF

A TNF overview for betting.

All Picks out by NoonET

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Cardinals RB Michael Carter said he will be starting for the team when speaking to reporters Wednesday.

I guess we have to trust this. It won’t be clear what the flow will be until we see it. Carter may start but Emari Demercado will get work too. Whichever of them gets hot is gonna get the work, I suspect. Where I have picked up Carter quickly yesterday, I am trying to trade him before Sunday. The public is latching onto the RotoBlurb about Carter starting, so now’s the time to act before the coach says something to pour any cold water on it...or before reality strikes that ‘who cares if Carter is ‘starting’ for Arizona?’ How good/great is that gonna be?  

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Bucky Irving’s foot sprain is not expected to be a long-term injury.

Today there won’t be much info on this, I’m sure Bucky will not practice today...but there’s a chance he might be out of his boot testing things Friday. Stay tuned. I am guessing he misses this week because the Bucs are loaded at RB, so they can afford to give him a week off.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Panthers placed OG Chandler Zavala (knee) on injured reserve.

The Panthers O-Line is a total wreck of injuries. So is Minnesota’s...so are a growing list of teams. O-Linemen are going down like flies this year, and it affects all the FF-weapons involved. We’re factoring it all in on the projections.

The injury floodgates at OL and RB seem to have been opened...

 

Our top 5 OL grades after five weeks:

1) Buffalo

2) Dallas

3) Atlanta

4) Denver

5) Jacksonville/New Orleans

 

Our bottom 5 O-Line grades after five weeks

1) Cincinnati

2) Cleveland

3) NY Giants

4) Pittsburgh

5) Tennessee


 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Saints TE Taysom Hill (knee) was limited on Wednesday.

There’s some kind of chance Taysom actually plays this week, but I am thinking it’s more Week 6-7. But Juwan is not 100%. Taysom is pushing to get back. Juwan Johnson stock may be in minor trouble IF the Saints are gonna keep Taysom and not trade him to Denver (which they are insane if they don’t).

 

 -- From Scott Smith on X: HC Todd Bowles says he’s “a little concerned” about the Bucs’ cornerback position after injuries to Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison, both of whom are scheduled for MRIs today.

The Bucs are just getting absolutely decimated with injuries this season, but they are hanging in there -- but down a couple OLs and maybe two more CBs and about to face Seattle, not good.

I’m just saying...if TB loses this week and falls to (3-2), the Falcons have the week off at (2-2)...after Week 3, after a 30-0 loss to Carolina, everyone said the Falcons were dead/a terrible team...not so fast my friend. The Falcons are two weeks away (starting Wk7) from a great schedule stretch...

 

 -- TE trends for Weeks 2-3-4 (ignoring Week 1)...

 

Top 5 FF PPR points (Wks 2-4):

55.0 = Ferguson

42.8 = H Henry

41.3 = McBride

40.9 = Kraft

38.5 = Andrews

 

Top 5 TEs in targets (Wks 2-4):

33 = Ferguson

26 = McBride

20 = Juwan

19 = Bowers

19 = Strange

 

Top 5 TEs in Yards (Wks 2-4):

209 = Kraft

200 = Ferguson

187 = Warren

173 = McBride

146 = Pitts

 

Top 5 TEs in TDs (Wks 2-4):

3 = H Henry

2 = Goedert, Andrews, Kincaid, Barner, Waller

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

 

WED 10/1

 (7:55amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

Game Reports as fast as I can pump them out. All day. Rams and 49ers games from Week 4 are among the next ones out, as they play the TNF game this week.

A lot of info gets shared on players on last night’s 2.5-hour video show...you can watch that anytime with the click of the link, or listen to it on YouTube on your phone while commuting, etc. Such great questions, dilemmas, news, predictions, projections, scouting. Even if it takes you 1-2-3 days to consume it in pieces, you don’t want to miss some great nuggets to consider.

First Player Prop and ATS bets of the week, if I see any out there.

 

 -- Waivers Week 5 Round Up...

Woody Marks led the way, as expected but the big ‘chase’ of the night after that was Darren Waller -- everyone came out of the woodwork to get back in on Waller. Two TDs on MNF...you’re gonna see the heat and/or pay the FAAB tax.

Arizona-DST was the big DST grab, as expected...and a move towards the Browns-DST was the mild-surprising move of the DST group last night.

Darius Slayton had heat. Malik Washington had about half the interest as Slayton. Isaiah Bond half the interest of Malik W.

Guys without as much heat as ‘expected’ or names of interest: Marvin Mims, Kendre Miller, Lions-DST.

Non-season-long injured players people gave up on to make pickups: Tyquan, C. Austin, Mooney, Tuten, Tre Tucker

 

 -- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving is “gathering medical opinions” on a potential foot/ankle injury.

This went from ‘I thought this was precautionary’ to ‘now, I’m scared’. I’ve bought into so much Bucky that this would be another nuclear bomb dropped on my FF team’s head. Fortunately, I have a lot of Rachaad backing him up as a ‘cuff. But some places I haven’t been able to make a legit trade, and I might be screwed.

I am hoping this is a 1-game thing, not an IR thing. The guy played on this injury and was great in the 2nd-half of Week 4...whatever the injury is.

We’re not gonna know all the results until mid-morning today or later...I am literally holding my breath for this one. I cannot afford another injury hit on some of my already-injury hit teams.

 

 -- NBC Headline: Raiders LT Kolton Miller (ankle) will be placed on injured reserve.

This is a massive hit to LV...already one of the worst O-Lines loses their single best OL, not even close on being the best. This hurts (to varying degrees) Jeanty, Geno, Tucker/Thornton (the downfield WRs)...it also boosts the Colts-DST for this week.

LV was already the 9th most sacked offense so far this season.

 

 -- NBC Headline: Cardinals RB Trey Benson (undisclosed) did not practice on Monday (and Tuesday).

Arizona tried out 4 RBs Tuesday, so something is happening...but no one knows for sure yet. We don’t even know what/if there is an injury here.

If Benson is out, I think it’s an Emari Demercado/Michael Carter split of some kind...favoring Demercado, to whatever degree. There’s one one-liner RotoBlurb that says Michael Carter to start if Benson out, which may be the case/is something to watch.

I think the reporter is basing it on Carter getting 2-3 starts at the end of last year when Arizona got RBs hurt -- but that was only when Conner-Benson-Demercado ALL went down...Carter was all they had left late last year. This season, Carter didn’t make the 53-man roster...he’s a practice squad guy...but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a starter. Both Demercado and Carter will play if no Benson, they have to.

Carter getting officially signed from their practice squad is more fuel for Benson concern.

 

 -- Jameson Williams metrics (for Week 4)...

#2t in Routes run (as a % of dropbacks)...Ja’Marr #1, Jameson/Pickens tied #2.

Williams blew away the WRs in Targets per Route Run...ahead #2 Diggs, #3 London.

Expected FF pts, based on the targets = Jameson was #6 among WRs...but was #1 with a bullet for his shortfall on Expected vs. actual FF points.

Week 4 may have been a turning point for Jameson action, but nothing clicked for FF...so he seems lost still...which is also possible. But the Week 4 intent for Jamo was huge.

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

 

TUE 9/30

 (8:05amET)

 -- Today’s Agenda...

Week 5 projections will post approx. 6-8pmET. Working on them all day.

Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30-10pmET+

Game reports, 1 or 2 throughout the day...and then the barrage all the rest of the week.  

 

 -- Obviously, Tyreek Hill is done for the season (after that wicked injury). Potentially, done for his career.

He’s nearly 32-years old. If he tried his hardest, he’d be sketchy to return ‘right’ in a year...where he’d be almost 33 years old. A 2026 return would be messy at best (given his age and injury)...so if he really wouldn’t be ‘good’ until 2027, at age 34 -- if you’re in his shoes, would you grind like crazy to try to get back at reduced capacity and aging out for probably a minimal one-year deal in 2026 or 2027?

What does he have left to prove? He’s won Super Bowls. He’s made a ton of money. He’s a future Hall of Famer.

Hill used to say he’d retire by like age 30. Obviously, he didn’t. The look on his face last night in the cart looked like a guy who thought he was free from football now...and was relieved. Just my very first reaction looking at him smiling at thanking the fans on that cart off the field.

I don’t think he’ll want to do the rehab in record time. I think he’ll say he’s trying to come back, so he can try to keep his contract for 2026 (final year of his current deal). Let Miami pay for his surgeries, etc. But I’m sure Miami will cut him in 2026 with a designation to break the $28M they’d owe him into parts over two years.

Tyreek with time and money -- he’s more likely to end up in jail or bankrupt than he is to successfully rehab and have another ‘act’ to his career. This is very likely the end for his football career, but he’ll be all over the news, off-and-on, for not good reasons or embarrassing reality TV reasons for the rest of his/our lives.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Ravens HC John Harbaugh said there was “no way” Lamar Jackson (hamstring) could have returned in Week 4’s loss to the Chiefs.

Doesn’t sound good for Week 5. 

They have Houston at home Week 5...I bet they hold him out and think they could beat Houston  without him. The Rams Week 6...they would need Lamar for that.

BYE Week 7 would make a Week 8 return the latest, most likely. The season is kinda on the line at (1-3) if they lose to HOU and LAR the next two weeks. Gonna put them in a hole they can get out of but it would be no room for error.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Titans coach Brian Callahan said Calvin Ridley was “fighting through something” during Week 4’s loss to Houston.

Yeah...the coaching, the blocking, the playbook...

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Texans HC DeMeco Ryans said Joe Mixon (foot) won’t be activated from the NFI list yet.

I don’t know that we’ll see Mixon this season, or if we do it will be late season...and then how long will he have to take to get into football shape after living in a walking boot every day for many months now? If the Texans win this week, they may be in the market for a frontline running back...but they really need five offensive lineman, which they aren’t getting.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Titans are expected to designate Tyjae Spears (ankle) for return this week.

Spears will come back and see touches...pulling from Tony Pollard to some degree. It’s already a S- Show in Tennessee, so Pollard is already limited upside until the O-Line is back intact...and even then...

New head coach coming in the next 1-2 weeks.

Pollard could be traded in the next 2-4 weeks as well.

It makes sense to get a real look at Spears, but that happening more in 2-3 weeks around the time they’d move Pollard.

 

 -- NBC HEADLINE: Saints designate TE Taysom Hill (knee) for return.

There is supposedly a long shot chance he can get active this week. I think it could be a few weeks before he is really ready, why would he or the Saints push a return ahead of its time? And, when he is ready...I would bet a lot that he’s gonna be traded to Denver.

 

 -- Steelers TE notes from Week 4...

Steelers TE snaps Week 4:     

Darnell Washington 48

Connor Heyward 16

Pat Freiermuth 15

Jonnu Smith 13

 

Routes Run by Steelers TEs in Week 4:

Freiermuth + Jonnu = 18

Darnell = 16

 

 -- Stat tidbit...

2025 season-to-date rushing TDs:

2 = Allgeier

1 = Bijan

 

 -- It’s good that the team, the QB is acknowledging this...good for our Jamo stock. They realize they need to correct/work on this...and when it gets public, usually things get pushed that WRs way on purpose for a variety of reasons.

https://detroitjockcity.com/jared-goff-sends-message-jameson-williams-after-rough-week-4-01k6958298r4

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

 

 

MON 9/29

 -- Today’s Agenda...

I have another ‘first thing in the morning’ doctor’s appointment (follow up from my painful, but quick procedure a week+ ago...but today’s is no pain at all besides a blood sample)...another appointment where it will take me way longer to drive there (and back) and find parking at this multiplex medical campus than the actual appointment itself. So, my timing on things could be askew today. *Thanks late night OT game on SNF...perfect timing!! 

The plan is...

Posting the RC Notes early, early so I can then focus on leaving early and getting there trying to allow for the Monday morning rush hour traffic, but I’ll be taking my work with me to work on the Executive Report in the car until I need to go check in.

I will post the Week 4 TNF (ARI-SEA) game report upon my return, approx. 10am-NoonET time frame.

Once I am back to the office...the rest of the day is dedicated to prepping the Executive Report. Usually, I try to post that between 6-8pmET, before MNF. I’m not sure what time it will be today if I get thrown too far off schedule. It may be more of a 7-8:30pm time estimate for publish.

MNF festivities as usual/normal tonight.

 

 -- A few of the injury issues from Week 4 Sunday...

Jaylen Warren missed Week 4...the Steelers have a Week 5 bye...so come Week 6, we (the entire FF community) will have debated Warren v. Gainwell a bunch...and no one will really have a clue what Pittsburgh is gonna do.

Malik Nabers is done for 2025. ACL surgery is coming and I’m sure he’ll get that foot surgery we were all worried about for him too. A lot of leg surgery and rehab going into the 2026 season.

Jauan Jennings looked fine...he wasn’t 100% but didn’t really show it. Jennings might be much better, health-wise, for Week 5...but Ricky Pearsall has some kind of knee concern to deal with and may miss Week 5.

Lamar Jackson’s hamstring is going to be a huge deal this week...we won’t likely know anything real until later in the week.

Chargers LT Joe Alt...high ankle sprain, no major damage.

 

 -- WR trends, pre-MNF (looking at Weeks 2-3-4, ignoring Week 1)

Total PPR points:

86.4 = Puka

85.9 = ARSB

63.9 = Odunze

54.6 = Quentin Johnston

52.8 = Davante

 

Most Targets:

39 = Puka

30 = Quentin Johnston

30 = Olave

27 = AJ Brown

26 = ARSB, Odunze, Nico, Tet McM

 

20+ yard catches:

6 = Tet McMillan

5 = Puka

5 = Odunze

5 = Quentin Johnston

5 = JSN

5 = J Jefferson

 

-------------------

 

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access):  https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting