RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 9/29
(7:44amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Don’t forget... 9:30amET MIN v. PIT in Ireland.
The show goes on: Sunday Morning Sit-Start Video Show begins at 10:30amET and runs to NoonET, as always. Access posts 10-1:15amET.
Week 4 FINAL update of the weekly projections will hit approx. 12:30pmET.
-- Early injury info...
Plenty of players appear to be in the clear: Baker, Godwin, Pearsall, Davante, Swift, Chuba, Tet McMillan, JCM.
Derek Stingley is 50/50, but more unlikely to play...or plays at reduced capacity, which would maybe help Calvin Ridley not get wiped out again.
Jauan Jennings looks like he’s playing but ‘limited’ or ‘monitored’ are words being used, early on today.
Isaiah Likely will work out ahead of kickoff to make sure he can go vs. KC, who he destroyed last season Week 1.
Christian Gonzalez will make his 2025 debut...not good news for Tet McMillan.
-- PIT v. MIN from Ireland Overview...
The Steelers come in with a bottom 10 run and pass defense by various metrics. #22 in total points allowed. #26 in total yards allowed.
The Vikings are a top 10 pass defense but near a bottom 10 run defense...the Steelers are gonna try to run game this thing and hope to harass Carson Wentz. I think the Steelers have been extra resting Jaylen Warren for this game because they know he’s gonna get a big workload. Kenneth Gainwell may get a decent touch count as well. But also...the Steelers O-Line is terrible so there’s that resistance. May lead to good pass game work for the Steelers backs as well...Rodgers’ favorite throws lately. *JAYLEN WARREN NOW INACTIVE*
Likely a big touch count day for Jordan Mason.
The Steelers got embarrassed by the Patriots TEs last week...a possible good sign for T.J. Hockenson.
The Vikings should just outplay the Steelers and pull out this victory, but it’s not a given...given Wentz at QB.
This morning, I added very light bets on:
Darnell Washington anytime TD, for fun at +1800 (DK profit boost)...he's due, they've been trying to get him a basketball box-out short pass TD a couple times this season.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 12.5 rec. yards
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SAT 9/27
(1:07pmET)
-- With Trey Sermon getting activated from the Steelers practice squad today, rumors are swirling that Jaylen Warren might be worse off with his injury than they are saying.
Maybe.
Adam Schefter is saying Warren is gonna play and everything is precautionary.
I think Sermon activated means the Steelers are just making sure they are good at RB in case Warren, or anyone goes down in game...because they cannot rely on Kaleb Johnson.
And it’s also protection if Warren wakes up bad Sunday and they set him inactive, but that doesn’t seem like where we are at...it’s just they gave Warren a ton of rest because he was a battering ram Week 3.
If Warren goes inactive or out in-game...then everything goes to Kenneth Gainwell. If you wanna take a flier on a Warren injury, get Gainwell off waivers (if there) and see what happens. It’s NOT gonna be Kaleb or Sermon in place of any Warren issue...it’s 100% Gainwell.
-------------------------
(9:14amET)
-- Today’s agenda
More game reports, trying to get them all in ASAP before Saturday end.
Week 4 projections update between 8-10pmET, depending upon West Coast injury reporting.
More Game and Prop bets as the books let more options out.
-- Injury notes...
Jauan Jennings is 50-50/an unknown for Week 4, and Ricky Pearsall’s knee is acting up. A worst case scenario could happen of both being out...pushing returning Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne to be the 1-2 punch WRs with Jake Tonges at TE for a returning Brock Purdy. CMC might catch a minimum of 10 passes in this event.
The Packers will be without OL starters Zach Tom and Aaron Banks and key backup Anthony Belton. Not good...but they are facing the Cowboys defense, but still...
Dallas is getting back both of their starting CBs back (Bland and Diggs)...the injury reports are not going GB’s way this week.
Tet McMillan is ‘questionable’ for Week 4. Likely playing but not a sure thing.
Chris Godwin is trending pretty strong to make his debut this week.
Jaylen Warren took a beating in Week 3...and got three practices limited/off this week so there’s some concern about his Sunday status, but I’m guessing he’s just getting extra rest. BUT they play early Sunday morning in Europe, so it may be a hassle for those on/near the West Coast time zone, for sure. And with Mike Tomlin saying Kaleb Johnson should see some work this week...it now makes Warren speculation even more worrisome.
-- News items/Tweets of interest:
More on this from me today on the NE-PIT report: https://x.com/benbbaldwin/status/1970566437149241568
I don’t always buy what these types of guys say, they're a little hyperbolic sometimes trying to predict injuries...but they are sometimes on the money. But I thought this 5-min. video was interesting (for 3-4 minutes): https://youtu.be/mSXGNlNv-RE?si=deNaVWzfQSYF5dfH
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FRI 9/26
(7:12amET)
-- Today’s agenda...
More game reports, trying to get them all in ASAP before Saturday end.
Week 4 projections update between 8-10pmET, depending upon West Coast injury reporting.
More Game and Prop bets as the books let more options out.
-- TNF first reactions...
...A classic game where the better team messes around, lets the opponent linger, then almost ‘gets got’, but Seattle pulled it out in the end.
...Trey Benson looked decent last night. Things went almost exactly as predicted...Seattle’s run defense is too tough/it was a bad matchup. And I worried how much Emari Demercado might linger/syphon off a few touches especially in the pass game -- and then the game flow went his way late and Emari scored right up with Benson with a late receiving TD. So, some of the Benson hype gets pierced but not too bad from this...5 catches for Benson holds his value up and knowing the SEA run D was tough.
...Marv Harrison still stinks, but he can catch some passes while he’s totally covered/never open...he’s good at that contested catch, if you target him enough/egregiously...and they did in the 2nd-half. Scouting doesn’t matter if they’re gonna throw you the ball all the time, you’ll make some catches...I want the coach’s/QB’s pet vs. the most talented WR for FF. Thus Ladd McConkey is now the 3rd-best WR on LAC...but the 3rd-most talented WR in the entire NFL (just hold him).
...The most talented WR in this game was arguably not MHJ or JSN...it’s potentially Tory Horton, but he didn’t go to OSU...so he’s SOL.
-- O-Line grades...
We have the first run of our early trending/grades for O-Lines so far this season, our own homebrew...3 games is not enough to fully go by/judge accurately, but it’s enough to start considering where the trends are going.
The top five O-Lines (by Run + Pass grades) so far this season, according to us:
1) Buffalo...A grades in both run/pass.
2) Atlanta...the only other double A grades...helps that Penix gets rid of it quickly.
3) Jacksonville...which shows you how weak Trevor is.
4) Dallas...but just lost two key OLs, so this grade is about to drop.
5) LA Rams
Bottom five:
1) Cincinnati...you can’t do worse than F- and F- in the two categories.
2) Pittsburgh
3) Tennessee
4) Seattle (pre-TNF)
5) Cleveland
Three teams in the AFC North are in the top 5.
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THU 9/25
(6:42amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Reports as fast as I can get them done.
All Picks ATS and Survivor picks will post before noonET.
Week 4 Projections update before TNF...approx. 7-7:30pmET post.
TNF preview and any bets will post 7-8pmET.
The TNF channel will be live on the FFM Betting Discord tonight.
-- HEADLINE: Seahawks placed FB Robbie Ouzts on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
This is a huge thing for the Seattle run game effectiveness (Walker/Charbonnet). One of the big things/changes for 2025 was the addition of the fantastic blocking FB. We don’t know how long he’ll be out for.
-- HEADLINE: Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said TE Oronde Gadsden is “going to be in there more,” because “he earned that.”
Will Dissly is trending towards being out again this week, so Gadsden could be in store for another useful FF-hope.
-- Tweets of interest that I collected...
https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1970235280037904802
https://x.com/FFHitman/status/1970937323170021610
https://x.com/Jeff_McLane/status/1970913897591996862
-- RB PPR scoring trends from Weeks 2-3 (ignoring Week 1) and some full season data...
Top 12 PPR PPG:
1) J Taylor
2) J Cook
3) CMC
4) Gibbs
5) D Mntg
6) Achane
7) Skattebo
8) Javonte
9) KWalker
10) Bijan
11) Bucky
12) JWarren
Top 5 YPC avg. (min 10 carries)
9.0 = D Montgomery
7.5 = Corum
6.4 = JT
6.4 = JKD
6.2 = Javonte
Most 20+ yard runs (entire season Wks 1-3):
4 = Henry
2 = JT, Cook, Gibbs, Javonte, D Mntg, Eitenne, JKD, Judkins, Benson
1 or 0 = everyone else
Total TDs (entire season Wks 1-3):
4 = Cook
4 = JT
3 = Gibbs, Javonte, DMntg, JKD, Henry, KWalker
40+ carries (season) and less than 4.0 YPC avg.:
3.9 = Chuba
3.7 = AK
3.6 = Pollard
3.5 = Swift
3.4 = CMC
3.4 = Hampton
3.3 = Saquon
3.1 = Irving
3.1 = JWarren
3.1 = Jacobs
3.1 = Jeanty
2.0 = Ch Brown
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9/24 WED
(6:48amET)
-- Today’s agenda...
Game Reports all day. Titans-Colts first out of the chute. Then I’m getting into ARI-SF to review Trey Benson’s 2025 and discuss his outlook as the new lead back for the Cardinals. And one of my ‘wonders’ is...should we sell Benson before he even makes that start on TNF?
Week 4 projections will update 7-9pmET.
We went nearly 3 hours on the Video Q&A last night, talking several subjects...the first 2 minutes I was complaining about things with the mic not on (it’s been that kind of week) then got the mic on to complain about the mic not being on...then eventually we talked some football and waivers and Jameson and various things. As always, that show is on demand to listen to for your car ride to work, walking the dog, whatever.
-- Waivers night summary/reactions...
Trey Benson went for the predictable big money. It looks like the public is into it/sees Benson as a star that has been bottled up and now the genie is out of the bottle. I’m getting ‘sell high’ vibes from all the last 24 hours. Not ‘sell’ to avoid/scared...just there’s some real heat here, like he’s a ‘rookie’ almost. If you look to sell it...sell like a virtual RB1 valuation, or as close to it as possible. He’s hot in redraft, for sure, and Dynasty...people believe, with logic, this is the future lead back for Arizona. Value him high...or walk/keep.
Tre Tucker was the #2 get of the night. Makes sense...especially for us that are RB rich and WR chaotic right now.
The WR name after Tucker was Tyquan Thornton...any player with hope/spark off a MNF game where people ‘saw it with their own two eyes’ moves the market. I picked him up in some deeper leagues weeks ago on a hunch or desperation...I am selling this heat this week, if I can. WR2 valuation is what I will be looking to get.
Detroit was the defense most people went for, which makes sense. The Patriots were second.
People went for KaVontae Turpin about equal to Jalen Tolbert...in the CeeDee aftermath.
Hassan Haskins made a move as the Omarion Hampton handcuff. I think there’s a world where Kimani Vidal may be as interesting.
Not as much heat for Luther Burden as expected. People went for Tory Horton a tad more than Burden...and went for Parker Washington more than either of them.
-- Articles of interest I came across:
*This affects the betting and projections: https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/news/159321/report-eagles-could-be-without-2-of-their-top-3-outside-cornerbacks-against-buccaneers
*An FYI ‘tweet’ of interest: https://x.com/MikeReiss/status/1970496063388717100
*This was kinda interesting, and went deeper than I expected from an ex-player turned commentator: https://www.raidersbeat.com/host-explains-why-raiders-offense-isnt-working/
TE statistics of interest for Weeks 2-3, IGNORING Week 1...
Top 10 PPR scorers Weeks 2-3:
1) J Ferg
2) H Henry
3) Kraft
4) McBride
5) Andrews
6) Juwan J
7) Kincaid
8) Ertz
9) Okonkwo (I’ve got more to say on this in the TEN-IND report)
10) T Warren
Top 10 in total targets Wks 2-3:
1) J Ferg
2) Juwan
3) McBride
4) H Henry
5t) Bowers, Kelce
7t) Chig, Kincaid, T Warren, Njoku, Strange
Top 5 in total catches:
1) J Ferg
2t) McBride, Juwan
4t) Chig, Henry, Kraft, Kincaid, Bowers, Njoku, Strange, J. Sanders
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TUE 9/23
(7:31amET)
-- Today’s agenda...
Working on all the data to get the Week 4 projections debut off to a good start...they will post between 6-8pmET.
Tuesday Night Waiver livestream video show 8:30pmET to 10pm+...show access will post 8-815pmET.
Week 3 game reports will post daily all throughout the week as I get them studied and written.
-- MNF first reactions...
After the first drives for each team in the game last night, Jameson caught two passes for 40+ yards and Derrick Henry had the sweet TD run...and I thought ‘this is gonna be a great night’. Then they did absolutely nothing (for FF) after that for 3 hours...and now I want to call into work sick today.
As I watched that FF-dud unfold, after the hot start, I was also watching/studying the tape of the Falcons inexplicable 30-0 loss to the Panthers during MNF commercials and halftime...and I quickly concluded -- I don’t know anything about football...why did I choose this vocation...everyone is hating me right now. This may be the single worst week of Fantasy I have experienced since the last time it was/felt like the single worst week of Fantasy that I have ever experienced.
I’ve got (3-0) teams that I can’t even enjoy because of the now (0-3) teams that lost wins last night due to Henry/Jamo and missing Burrow and the Falcons DST. It’s a definitive fact of FF-life, and probably non-FF-life...we dwell in the bad and cannot enjoy the good. I am as guilty as anyone, even after 10+ years of going through these highs and lows of FF and betting all the time. The ‘bad’ rarely gets easier.
I will go through my FF grief stages this morning:
1) Numb, disbelief at (especially) Henry’s FF night.
2) Wanting to quit everything...why do I play this stupid game?
3) Start thinking about what I need to do with my various situations for lineups this week and waivers tonight, and trades that it might be the right time for.
4) The fog will lift as I start to focus on winning Week 4 and improving the team for the ROS. I’ll be back in game week mode before I know it.
But as I type this I’m in stage 1-2 (above). What if Derrick Henry is gonna kill me this season? I’m starting to spiral a little bit. In an hour or so, after a morning coffee and getting back to the tape and data...I’ll move out of stage 1-2 and get to stage 3 quickly. There’s no time, and no reason to give up or pout...we’ve got a lot of months to go. But last night really sucked after the way it started...and for it to be on a MNF solo TV game to watch it in all its glory...just tastes terrible this morning.
We’ll get to analyzing all those key Henry, Jamo, etc., questions today and all week. We gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em...we need to know that now. I could have really used one of those Joe Burrow specials this week to help offset...but I got his replacement issues on top of the Henry-Jamo dud this week in some leagues. You can never rest easy in FF...just when you’re feeling good about things going into the weekend, GB loses to CLE in a week where every late game field goal was blocked at historical levels to change game outcomes completely. Sometimes the improbable statistical events go against you, sometimes they save you. The beauty of this game is constant chaos...just when you think you’ve got it all figured out...there’s a Week 3 of the NFL 2025 that happens.
If all field goals are now gonna get blocked, and if Daniel Jones is going to win the league MVP for the undefeated Colts...this is gonna be a long season for me. But that’s not gonna happen. Temporary blips along the journey.
Time to get to work and continue on with the journey...but this week really sucked for several of us.
ATL-CAR is the first report out today. Then I am going after that BAL-DET affair and Henry and Jamo, etc.
-- Injury note flying a bit under the radar: Browns LT Dawand Jones (knee) will be placed on season-ending injured reserve.
That’s a massive hit to the upstart Browns. If they thought they might be something after their 3 minutes of low probability event chaos all going their way in a win in Week 3...this Jones injury is a massive blow to the outlook.
-- Betting results from Week 3...
Just like some of my FF teams last night, I got my butt whooped betting on all this Week 3 BS too.
First, I bet hard ATS on ATL and GB...and...well...hey, at least I took Buffalo to stay alive in Survivor Pools.
I bet huge (for me) on Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 6.5 yards receiving, and he got an early game screen and was off to the races with big space in front of him but a fallen defender clipped his ankle and tripped him up for a 5 yard gain. No more targets the rest of the blowout. 1.5 yards short...which has been the story of 2025 betting so far -- so close, in the right church but sitting in the wrong pew, so to speak. Had I hit that extra 1.5 yards on JCM, the winnings would’ve covered the week.
So, I go through the stages of bettor-grief...
1) Pissed at the coach for not getting JCM more involved.
2) Claim I may never bet on football again.
3) Monday/Tuesday morning, I’ll start looking at the early lines and the MNF prop lines and start betting again.
It’s like that with our FF teams after a loss or losses -- get pissed but then get back to work. I’m in the hole for the 2025 season on betting after a sweet 2024. A lot of time left to go. One good week and we’re back to even and can build from there.
I don’t quit. Well, I do...for about 12-24 hours...then I don’t. It may be personal fortitude...it may be personal delusion and stupidity. But...what’s better than watching football with Fantasy and/or bets at stake? Even at its worst...there’s always ‘next week’. Best game and past time on the planet...even if it’s to hate-watch it sometimes.
I forget that my ‘Drive for 5 Bets’ (record in the first 5 games) against the Giants and Titans are gonna pay me out to cover some of the current losses. No time for future good news, I gotta wallow in the present!
-- Articles I found interesting the past 24 hours...
(this article will matter for reading my ATL-CAR report) https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46350090/falcons-fire-wr-coach-ike-hilliard-offensive-struggles
Taking a look at Week's 2 and 3, ignoring Week 1...just for alternative looks at the trends/flows...
Weeks 2-3 (not Week 1) WR data...
Top 10 WRs for FF/PPR scoring...
1) ARSB
2) Puka
3) Odunze
4) Tre Tucker
5) Ja’Marr
6) Nabers
7) JSN
8) Davante
9t) Nico
9t) Keenan
Top 3 targeted WRs...
1) Puka
2) Olave
3) Ja’Marr
Surprise in the top 10 most targeted: #10 Keenan, Pickens.
Top 3 catches for WRs in this span:
1) Puka
2) Ja’Marr
3) ARSB
Surprises in the top 10: #7 Keenan, Pearsall, #10 Tucker.
Top 3 yards for WRs in this span:
1) Ja’Marr
2) Puka
3) JSN
Surprises in the top 10: #7 Pearsall, #8 Wan’Dale, #10 Quentin
Top 3 in most 20+ yard catches:
1) Tet McMillan (5)
2) Odunze (4)
3) Wan’Dale (4)
Top 3 WRs in rushing attempts...
1) Malik Washington (5)
2) Matt Golden (5)
3) Chimere Dike (4)
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MON 9/22
(8:36amET)
-- Today’s agenda...
Working on the Week 3 Executive Summary all day...it should be published between 6-8pmET. Ahead of the MNF game.
The Week 3 TNF BUF-MIA game report mid-morningET.
The MNF chat will be open on the FFM Discord for tonight’s game.
-- Crucial FFM MNF game tonight with Derrick Henry and Jameson Williams, two highly owned players gonna try to lock down wins. Some need just a little. Some need ‘normal’. Some need a special delivery game for King Henry and Jamo. We might get some goodness tonight in a possible shootout. Good luck to everyone tonight.
-- We’ve got injury watches (and my early ‘guesses’ based on initial info) today for the following key players, among others...
Mike Evans...likely 2-4 week+ hamstring issue.
CeeDee Lamb...likely high ankle sprain that could be 2-4 weeks.
Najee Harris and James Conner...both very likely (99.9%) done for 2025.
Colston Loveland...hip issue, unsure severity.
Mac Jones...MCL knee with Brock Purdy dealing with toe and shoulder.
Tyrone Tracy...likely arm dislocation or fracture.
Nick Bosa...knee, unknown severity.
-- Quick article to read if you’re interested:
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