RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 9/21
(12:28pmET)
-- With all the Chuba Hubbard questions this week on the sit-start show, I was pretty favorable/‘lean’ Chuba in the tougher sit-start situations proposed...but I neglected to take the Falcons run defense into consideration as much as I should have.
So...
Hubbard is not a hot start due to the ATL run D. Not-nothing, but bad matchup.
Pollard over Hubbard, this week.
J. Warren over Hubbard.
Chase Brown over Hubbard.
JCM, I’m going over Hubbard.
Chubb, I am going...for sure on half or non-PPR.
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(8:14amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Week 3 Sunday Morning Sit-Start Video Show: 10:30amET-Noon (access will post 10-1015amET)
Week 3 FINAL projections update 12:30pmET approx.
The Week 2 NYG-DAL game report will post this morning.
-- Early injury info...
LT Christian Darrisaw makes his 2025 debut from his 2024 ACL injury...that is massive news for MIN, and for Jordan Mason and Carson Wentz (and eventually JJM). Harrison Smith is returning today as well. Andrew Van Ginkel has been cleared as well. A lot of MIN firepower back this week.
D’Andre Swift is good to play today (quad). Kyle Monangai should see some touches again.
Emeka Egbuka will play but have snaps monitored and could be limited. Sterling Shepard could be a minor FF surprise today.
NYG LT Andrew Thomas debuts tonight.
Trevon Diggs at risk of missing Week 3.
*Week 4 note/next week: Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs are expected to debut for TB.
-- Articles of interest:
https://kckingdom.com/chiefs-move-closer-isiah-pacheco-split-week-3-comments-01k5exz6dgk2
https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/onsi/news/colts-ol-admits-purposefully-drew-leverage-penalty-broncos
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SAT 9/20
(7:47amET)
-- Saturday agenda...
A slew of game reports...hopefully all the remaining reports will post today by days end.
Week 3 projections update 8-10pmET
More Player Prop betting when they release more of the players/options. Usually Friday night they have everything out, but DK doesn’t even have the tackle counts for any game among other things. But check out my ones from last night, bettors...I really like that 6-pack of props to consider. One especially.
*I’m gonna be sitting and working most of the day today...still recovering from yesterday. Very sore but back at work. Emphasis on ‘sitting’. I’m supposed to be resting/taking it easy...so, my normal life...sitting in a chair watching football for 6+ hours a day while typing the other 6 hours of the day.
I’m very behind on emails, I am trying to catch up ASAP before Sunday hits and it’s too late on the some of the items in question. Tried to get some emails done at the doctor’s office yesterday, got their early so I would have time but...once I got there it was one thing to another where I wasn’t being interrupted with pesky medical bill payment (their payment terminal was acting up), prep (take meds), and then...the pain of the brief event. Took my first valium ever, I think it was my first...which that was a trip for someone who doesn’t ever drink or do any types of drugs. I always react quick to medication/sleepy time things -- I totally get how people get hooked on those types of things!
Back to the lucid world today...mostly!
INJURY ITEMS OF INTEREST, excluding some obvious situations (like the QBs)...
-- 49ers WR Jauan Jennings (ankle/shoulder) is questionable to play in Week 3 against the Cardinals = Three DNPs in a row feels like he either won’t play or is not 100% if he does.
-- Packers TE Tucker Kraft (knee) is questionable for Week 3’s game against Cleveland = I’m betting that they sit him because...do they really need him to beat CLE?
-- Ravens TE Isaiah Likely (foot) was limited on Friday = Depending upon your #2 TE or if you don’t have one, worth considering to sit on and see where this goes. Could be the BAL de facto #2 target after Zay...or is ignored and you drop him in 2-3 weeks.
-- Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (shoulder) is not on Jacksonville’s final injury report for Week 3 = Was a concern the past few days, but they must have been being extra cautious. They are starting to speak of/treat him like ‘he’s something’. Will this be the week he takes more touches than Etienne?
-- Texans WR Christian Kirk (hamstring) is off Houston’s injury report for Week 3 = Is instantly the #2 targets...helps Nico some. Faces his old team in JAX.
-- Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet (foot) is doubtful for Week 3’s game against the Saints = KW3 RB1 week...could be like a top 3 RB.
-- Falcons ruled out CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) for Week 3 against the Panthers = This holds back ATL from maybe being the #1 DST of the week. However, they lost AJT earlier/middle of Week 2 and still dominated Minnesota.
-- Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles said Emeka Egbuka (hip/groin) will be questionable for Week 3 against the Jets = I have a feeling he is gonna be out this week...or plays but is more decoy and out of the game late if a blowout, etc. We’ll see if he gets fully cleared or is very questionable all weekend. This one is still murky.
-- HEADLINE: Aaron Glenn declined to answer whether Justin Fields (concussion) could lose his QB1 role while injured.
This is getting framed like Glenn was leaving the door open for a change, but that was not it at all. A media member tried to bait him with asking if Fields could lose his job if Tyrod wins this week, and Glenn was more dismissive of the annoying question...it’s an odd question after just 1.5 games played by Fields, so far...and one of them was terrific.
And the question was more framed about could players lose their job if out hurt and the replacements come in and succeed. It was a question that Glenn was 100% right or not answer because there is no real answer. Every situation is different. It was a dumb question and Glenn just batted it down like it was stupid.
Glenn’s specific response to the question: "I won't answer that type of question."
The GOOD NEWS is...this is being framed by the FF media as a lack of confidence in Fields, so if you were interested in adding him to your QB stable -- the price is quite down today...thanks to the media’s dumb question and the RotoBlurbs awful spin on it. Take advantage if desired.
-- Didn’t remember to post Pittsburgh Dad’s Week 2 review...
https://youtu.be/o1c69SyX1vQ?si=DRvcZhFpdav8vqZo
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FRI 9/19
(7:07amET)
-- Friday agenda...(+ a curveball today)
More game reports...trying to get through all the tape by Saturday end, which I’m on track for. It takes time to write them up and this has been a week of schedule conflicts, so trying to get them out as fast as I can. Ross Jacobs is gonna help me with a few, thank God.
Week 3 projections update between 8-10pmET after digesting all the key Friday injury reports, especially having to wait a bit for the West Coast one to come in.
*My curveball today is that I have to go to the doctor to get a procedure done mid-morning. The good news is it will take longer for us to drive there and find parking than what they are doing. I will be down for the count for a few hours after with my pain meds wearing off...and coming back to consciousness in some pain but back to work in the afternoon, hopefully. I’m always on the longer side of their time estimates on ‘you should be fine after 1-4 hours’...that usually means 4+ hours and hurting like a mother...but we’ll see (prayers accepted for this!). I have worked through the pains of kidney stones and a gallbladder attack and then removal surgery. I’m a work horse.
So, if you see a gap between game reports today...know it’s not me goofing off at work!
When I am back to normal-ish, this weekend, we’ll announce winners of the final rookie cards giveaway. I got behind with the final two giveaways at the season kickoff week. The first few winners have received their goods safely!
-- TNF initial reactions...
I don’t know that this loss was bad enough to get the pot more stirred in Miami, but it was a loss nonetheless. Miami is (0-3) and inching closer to the ‘blowing things up’ decision area...inching closer to Tyreek Hill saying something stupid and creating controversy. They have to scrap the whole thing...trade Tyreek...find a new QB in 2026. They owe Tua $99M still after this season, one of the dumbest contract extensions ever...which should get the GM fired before the head coach and that allows the new GM to get a jump on things. And then the new GM will hire a new coach in 2026. Also to be traded this season...Bradley Chubb, among others.
Buffalo goes to (3-0). This was ‘a game’ to the final few minutes, before the Bills decided to end it...or, actually, before Tua decided to end it...before Tua decided to be Tua.
The Bills luckily came back on the Ravens in Week 1 for a win. They caught all the breaks Week 2 vs. the Jets. They slunk away with a win against the league’s worst team here. I have not been all that impressed with the Bills...from a standpoint of whether they are a higher-level power or not in the NFL. They are very good. Not sure they are a one-way ticket through the AFC.
I placed 9 player prop bets on the game last night. I lost 8 of them. But the one I hit was the biggie bet (Malik Washington rushing 4.5 yards) that paid for ALL the losses with some profit. The last play of the game was a dump pass to Malik, who caught it and ran for enough to pay off my 2nd biggest bet (his rec. yards) plus his total catches. I couldn’t believe my luck...finally I’d catch a break this player prop betting season. Two wins on the final play of the game!!! Then five minutes after the game ended they reversed the catch to a ‘run play’ and took my two last second prop wins away.
I lost 8 props that were all winnable in-game but penalties nullifying catches, the Tua double clutch pass then bad throw behind Malik on the final play, and Keon Coleman dropping two big catches/yards in the game + a penalty on one of his catches. I am whining about it, but I can’t get mad at myself -- I know I was on the right things...just incredibly unlucky. Malik had all his props booked on the first darn drive, but penalties reversed one catch and Tua missing him on a wide-open throw took away another...and then he went the rest of the game getting just 1 more catch, but also another catch wiped on a penalty. Maddening...but the life of a bettor.
Washington should’ve had 7 catches for 50+ yards last night but he had 2 reversed by penalty and the last pass called a run play instead. Week 2, Malik had 2 catches wiped by penalty as well. In the past two weeks, Malik has 4 total/official catches and 4 more catches reversed by penalty.
-- I do believe this player is gonna be one of the first ones traded in the next few weeks (if their team continues to lose)...
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THU 9/18
(8:42amET)
-- Thursday agenda...
Game Reports all today/rest of the week as fast as I can do them.
All Picks ATS for Week 3 will post by NoonET.
Week 3 projections update around 7-730pmET after the inactives are out.
TNF overview and anything I’m betting on will post pregame...and the Thu Night channel with be open on FFM Discord for those watching/wanting to chat about the game or betting.
-- HEADLINE: Fox Sports’ Greg Auman reports Buccaneers OG Cody Mauch will require knee surgery that is expected to end his season.
Somewhat quietly, the Buccaneers are crumbling from within due to injury. The 49ers are probably the most injured team of the early 2025 season, but the Bucs are trying to catch them with now 60% of their starting, very good O-Line down. Tristan Wirfs getting back is massive for TB.
The Bucs also lost their #1-2 top defender for the season this week as well -- Calijah Kancey. The other #1-2 top defender, Vita Vea is banged up a little as well.
-- HEADLINE: Cardinals CB Garrett Williams (knee) will be placed on injured reserve.
Starter Williams is done. The other two starters at CB are at-risk of missing Week 3...Max Melton is questionable with a knee but has a shot to play. Their best CB, rookie Will Johnson, is very questionable with a groin injury. Could be the Cards are missing all three starting CBs this week.
Serious downgrades for the Arizona-DST...and right out of my lineups/off my rosters where I can easily replace them. I already have been replacing them with GB, ATL, LAC types anyway the past 2 weeks, but now I’m totally out.
-- TNF tonight...Miami at Buffalo...seriously? We’ve had a lot of good games scheduled on the solo night games so far, but this one could be a snooze...but that’s usually when you get a curveball thrown at you.
I will be watching to see if Miami loses...more so if they get trounced. If they do, the sell-off may begin with extra time for them before Week 4 after/if an embarrassing loss on a solo night game, dropping them to (0-3). This Dolphins defense has allowed 30+ in three straight games back to last season...probably #4 in a row coming in this game.
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WED 9/17
(7:00amET)
-- Wednesday agenda...
Game Reports all day is my focus. SEA-PIT is leading us off.
JAX-CIN will be done today where I will go through more QB notes...but I did like 30 minutes on all the waiver QBs, including leftovers after waivers today, in the Tuesday Night Waivers video Q&A from last night...you would be wise to watch the first hour of my discussions on my favorite sleeper player (non-QB) and then all my data and reactions to the waiver wire-like QBs...if you are still in QB crisis for the moment.
A third game report will post today too, planned. Could be a video or written...depends on the pick and the notes, and the time left in this day.
Week 3 projections update will post approx. 7-9pmET with the latest injury news, etc.
-- Waiver info from last night...
Jake Browning ended up the top free agent QB added nationally...not with priority, just volume of people adding. But it almost seemed like people trusted Browning as a Burrow replacement than they did Dan Jones.
The waiver market cooled a bit at the last moments for Daniel Jones...he was the top bid on/priority QB of the night but his initial projected FAAB% came in on the lower end of the range on average.
Troy Franklin was far and away the top non-QB added, nationally. People without QB crisis = Franklin was the top non-QB taken in most leagues.
People went after Seattle-DST the most off waivers. The Bucs-DST (v. Jets) was second, nationally. The world dropped Arizona-DST in waves because they are facing the very scary Mac Jones this week(?). Arizona-DST was the top dropped item followed by some TEs = Michael Mayer and Evan Engram. Burrow and Ekeler being dropped was a high count as well, obviously.
-- An IDP note on last night’s show, which I thank the person who brought it up, concerning DL/LB Carl Granderson...and whether he was missing from the rankings at LB (where we have him, where he is listed on their depth chart).
In the end, Granderson was not missing -- he just didn’t make our top 75 LB cut this week (yet) facing Seattle...the Seahawks ‘get sacked’ numbers weren’t strong enough/had an impact on Granderson’s projections for the week, so far. This part of the saga we addressed at the end of the show last night.
However...
After the show, I went and looked at it...because I was preparing to add Granderson in a three-IDP (DL-LB-DB) league for a quick fill-in for again injured Alex Highsmith. It makes sense to look to add Granderson, after all...because he is the #1 ranked scorer per game as a DL...#3 as a LB...3.5 sacks so far this season. Not liking the matchup (per our data), I pivoted to another lowly owned DL for the week on a better matchup, and one who is doing well out of the gates, one to consider for the week: Dorance Armstrong, WSH.
Why? I’m glad you asked!
Did you know, in his last 9 games played (including 3 playoff games), Armstrong has 7.5 sacks...at least 0.5 sacks in seven of the 9 games? 9 TFLs in that span. 1 PD and 1 FF too. With a solid 3.7 total tackles per game. I didn’t know it until the Granderson question sent me down a rabbit hole late last night, so thank you for stirring the pot with that question last night!!
-- The Reddit report on the Caleb Williams saga from yesterday on RC’s notes...it’s been exposed as a fraud/fake news thing. FYI
Ross Jacobs was telling me about it... The Caleb stuff is true per all the Tyler Dunne reports. BUT the Reddit thing where someone ‘exposed’ themselves as a ‘key source’ for that reporting...it was somebody who went out of their way to fake documents and pretend that they had a lot of the inside info the reporter was using, and he added more details not in the Dunne reports that were a bit salacious (but fake)...for a laugh, I guess.
It looked real to me, at a glance. I never dreamed someone would go through lengths they did to make up fake notes that weren’t that funny. What all that accomplished for that person, I have no idea. The time they wasted for nothing...I wonder what they didn’t do or get done that day because they were faking something to entertain a few idiotic Redditors?
Anyway, FYI, those Caleb extra notes/drama were fake from Tuesday. Aren’t most people morons? Is that the theme for 2025/this decade?
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TUE 9/16
(7:20amET)
-- Tuesday agenda...
The first game report to post today will be DEN-IND. Pausing the CIN-JAX report from being first up to see what Cincy might do for any QB moves on Tuesday. Likely nothing, but...
Working on the Week 3 projections all day along with the Burrow replacement plan (thus the DEN-IND report, scouting Dan Jones). They will be out somewhere around 5-8pmET before our video show.
Tuesday Night Waivers video live Q&A show 8:30pmET-10pm+
A very crazy week this week for my schedule. The pattern of game reports this week is going to be erratic. My email responses will be delayed, erratic all week. I will try to get to them all ASAP.
-- MNF quick reactions…
TB at HOU
Baker is so-so good.
The Bucs are lucky to not be (0-2) right now...two close games with two good opponents. Credit to them for Baker’s resiliency and 2-minute ability. Kevin Stefanski didn’t see anything in Baker years ago. I’m sure that has worked out fine for him since...
Houston changed O-Cs, and nothing looks any different on offense...their main issue continues to be O-Line. And they drafted two nice WRs from Iowa State and have integrated neither of them into the offense hardly.
The Bucs are (2-0) AND they are missing their best O-Lineman (Wirfs). When they get him back they can go to another level.
LAC at LV
As expected, LAC handled them with some ease...for three quarters...and then the Chargers did try everything they could to give the game to the Raiders via one of the stupidest play calling plans in all of Week 2. LAC mowed through LV in the 1st-half, then the offense went totally dumb in the 2nd-half...but the LAC defense saved the day multiple times.
The Raiders are not bad, they’re feisty...just LAC is stronger top-to-bottom...and Herbert is far superior to Geno.
The Chargers defense is one of the best in the league...they seem like there are 12 guys on the field for their defense.
-- APPARENTLY THIS IS FAKE NEWS/MADE UP stuff (below, about the confession...but the base stories around it were/are real...but this 'confession' was a 'joke') as I am now hearing, but here it is to look at anyway
More info/drama on that Caleb Williams piece/series from last week, if you’re interested...
https://www.bearweatherfans.com/2025/09/yes-i-was-tyler-dunnes-source-for-caleb.html?m=1
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MON 9/15
(7:55amET)
-- Monday agenda...
The WSH-GB TNF game report will lead us off for the week, like every week from here on in. Will post mid-morning ET.
The Executive Summary will post somewhere around 6-8pmET today and every Monday of the season. I will try to have that done by 6pmET to be ahead of the MNF double-header start.
The MNF chat room will be open on the Discord chat...double-header night tonight.
-- QB Injury day. We’ll find out more on three situations...
Joe Burrow...feared to need surgery and be out 3+ months. My first game report will be CIN-JAX to go through the situation and options to replace Burrow. The Executive Report will also be very Burrow centric.
Jayden Daniels...day-to-day, but how much is he gonna be affected as a runner by his injury?
Justin Fields...concussion, unknown severity.
-- I was cruising along (7-3) on my ATS picks through the 1pmET games. And the three 4pm games were going my way too...and then they one by one fell...Kelce drops a TD into an INT and KC falls away, Denver blows their game on a penalty/re-kick game winning FG by Indy, and Arizona lets a huge lead evaporate to Bryce Young. (7-3) ATS turns to (7-6) in a blink and ends Sunday (8-6). Still alive in Survivor pools with the Ravens not sweating CLE.
I only really bet one game this week...ATL +3.5 on SNF. I intended to BET Denver -1.5, but I never got around to it...thankfully. I did bet Green Bay in-game on TNF, -4.5, and that came in. I’m doing very well in ATS this season, which I never really do well early season with ATS bets.
...but I usually clean up on early season Player Props, but I’m getting my butt whooped on those out of the gates. I went heavy on Deebo rushing, Breece rushing, and Boutte receiving...and lost them all this week. That’s a rare bad Player Prop bet start, but it is my reality so far. Back to the grind looking for an opportunity to get back to even for the season in Week 3.
Other bets made this summer (not yet settled) are looking promising to make up my early season Player Prop betting gap. On the DraftKings ‘Drive for 5’ (betting on the record of teams in their first 5 games), I bet on 3 teams...heavier on NYG and TEN being bad...and they are both (0-2)...I need them to win 0 or 1 games in the first 5 games to payoff. I also bet light on Indy being bad, and I can kiss that money goodbye.
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