RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 5/19-5/25 (The Week That Was)

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 25 May 2025

RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

5/25 SUN

(7:03amET)

-- An Aaron Rodgers report that is probably the biggest sign that he IS going to the Steelers...

https://www.nfl.com/news/qb-aaron-rodgers-provides-hint-he-might-end-up-playing-for-steelers

I'll updating more of our projections to more lean towards Rodgers being the QB there.

-- I thought this was an interesting research request/feedback of info from Grok. Let me share it with you...

Q: What has Sean Payton said/quotes about Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele, Pat Bryant, Courtland Sutton, and Evan Engram in 2025.

Marvin Mims Jr.

Quotes:

On February 5, 2025, during an interview on the Up and Adams Show with Kay Adams, Payton praised Mims’ development: “One player we saw grow exponentially this year would be Marvin Mims. We saw him as a great returner a year ago. A Pro Bowl returner. There were a series of games this year where this receiver got better and better.”

Context and Role:

Payton has highlighted Mims’ growth from a Pro Bowl kick returner to a versatile offensive weapon. In 2024, Payton used Mims as a “joker” in the offense and occasionally at running back, a role he regretted not utilizing sooner (November 2024). This versatility is expected to continue in 2025, with Mims serving as a dynamic receiver and occasional decoy to support quarterback Bo Nix. His growth is seen as reducing defensive focus on primary receiver Courtland Sutton, enhancing the offense’s flexibility.

Devaughn Vele

Quotes:

On November 25, 2024, Payton compared Vele to former Saints receiver Marques Colston: “Vele’s doing good. Very quickly we’ve seen his growth. So he’s been really good. The strengths for him certainly are his hands. You guys saw it in camp. He has strong hands in traffic.”

Context and Role:

Vele, a big slot receiver and boundary option, has solidified his role in Payton’s offense by 2025. Payton’s comparison to Colston underscores Vele’s reliability and strong hands, particularly in traffic, making him a key target for Nix. While no new 2025 quotes specifically expand on Vele’s role, his established presence as a multi-positional receiver suggests he’ll continue to be a dependable option in the passing game, complementing the team’s other weapons.

Pat Bryant

Quotes:

After drafting Bryant in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, Payton compared him to former Saints star Michael Thomas (April 29, 2025, via ESPN Fantasy Sports): “He runs smooth routes, shows the ability to separate, is sure-handed, and excels in contested catches. That is the type of wide receiver the Broncos were missing last season.” *RC NOTE: That quote is from ESPN and is patently absurd. It shows the ignorance to Devaughn Vele’s game/abilities, at a minimum.

During a rookie minicamp press conference (circa May 10, 2025), Payton discussed Bryant’s potential to contribute immediately, emphasizing his mentality, work ethic, and run-blocking ability as aligning with the offensive vision.

Context and Role:

Bryant, a 2025 draft pick, is seen as a potential immediate starter due to his route-running, contested-catch ability, and blocking prowess (RC NOTE: This is Grok’s opinion from the mainstream aggregation of their thoughts on the internet, but there is almost no way Bryant is starting immediately in reality). Payton’s comparison to Thomas highlights his expectation for Bryant to be a middle-of-the-field target for Nix, filling a gap in the 2024 offense. Former Saints scout Mike Neu reinforced Payton’s enthusiasm, noting Bryant’s playmaking mentality: “He wants his number to be called. … I see him thriving in that environment.” Bryant is expected to add depth and physicality to the receiving corps.

Courtland Sutton

Quotes:

At the NFL Annual Meetings on March 31, 2025, Payton addressed Sutton’s contract situation and leadership: “I know Courtland well. He’s a tremendous worker. You guys know him. [He has] a tremendous makeup, leader of our team. That will sort itself out.”

In 2025, on Engram’s signing reducing pressure on Sutton: “It also helps take some of the pressure off Courtland Sutton — and that’ll be compounded if Marvin Mims Jr. continues to show growth from his spot on the field. Defenses won’t be able to double team Sutton as frequently.”

Context and Role:

Sutton, entering the final year of his contract in 2025 ($13.5 million base salary, restructured in 2024 to $15.2 million with incentives), remains the Broncos’ WR1 and a key leader. Despite 2024 trade rumors and OTA holdout, Payton’s confidence in Sutton’s work ethic and role as Nix’s security blanket persists. His 6-foot-4 frame is ideal for slants and curls, and Engram’s addition is expected to prevent defenses from doubling him, enhancing his effectiveness in 2025.

Evan Engram

Quotes:

At the NFL Annual Meetings on March 31, 2025, Payton discussed Engram’s signing and role as a “joker”: “We’ve talked about it for two years now, the interior triangle of your passing game [is] the tight end, the running back and the third receiver. … Engram is closer to Bo than the receivers sometimes. Obviously, he’s someone that we feel like can run and give us a passing threat on third down and [in the] red zone. I think he has good body control, and I think he is really good when he gets the ball into his hands. His run after the catch numbers, statistical-wise, have been good.”

On the signing process: “I would say with him, it was a lengthier process, kind of like the old days of free agency where a player would fly in then fly maybe to another team and usually wouldn’t make it to the third team. It worked out well.”

Comparing Engram to past players: “I would put him in that category or that family. He is someone who has those skill sets. … Having interviewed him, it was just, the minute I felt he was available, it was just ‘Where’s Evan at this year?’ Kind of like the Russian hockey player that you’re not sure you can find in the draft.” *RC NOTE: I have little idea what Grok is trying to communicate here.

On Engram’s specific fit: “I use that term [joker] for when you have one of those guys who are matchup challenges inside. It really helps you [on] third down and [in the] red zone. There are ways defensively you can handle the outside receivers and force the ball inside. That is something we will look closely at.”

Context and Role:

Engram, signed as a free agent after being released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, is a critical addition to address Denver’s 2024 tight end inefficiencies (-0.60 EPA per dropback on third-down throws to tight ends). Payton sees him as a “joker” tight end, excelling on third downs and in the red zone with strong run-after-catch ability (496 career receptions, 4,922 yards, 25 touchdowns). Engram’s 2025 role is to enhance the passing game, complement Sutton, and create matchup challenges. His signing is likened to drafting a high-value prospect, and Payton expects a rebound from his injury-marred 2024 (47 catches, 365 yards) to his 2023 Pro Bowl form (114 catches, 963 yards). Engram himself noted Payton’s vision for his vertical presence (April 10, 2025, via DNVR): “Everything that’s he’s been looking for in the position that I play… is me.”

Overall Context and Offensive Vision for 2025

Payton’s comments reflect a strategic overhaul of the Broncos’ passing game to support quarterback Bo Nix in 2025. Sutton remains the primary receiver and leader, benefiting from reduced defensive attention due to new additions. Engram addresses critical tight end deficiencies, serving as a versatile “joker” for third-down and red-zone efficiency. Mims brings explosive versatility, evolving beyond his returner role into a multi-faceted offensive weapon. Vele, likened to Marques Colston, provides reliable hands and positional flexibility. Bryant, compared to Michael Thomas, is poised for an immediate impact with his route-running and blocking.

Together, these players form a dynamic receiving corps designed to exploit the “interior triangle” of Payton’s passing game (tight end, running back, third receiver), reducing pressure on Sutton and creating mismatches. Payton’s excitement about this group, evident in his comparisons to past stars and emphasis on their specific skills, underscores his confidence in elevating Denver’s offense in 2025.

RC FINAL NOTE: Sean Payton, like most veteran head coaches, are feverishly trying to recreate what worked for them 10+ years ago in that one uber-successful season or stretch of time.

Here's the recent haul of offensive players and who Sean Payton has referred to them as...

Devaughn Vele = Marques Colston

RJ Harvey = Darren Sproles

Bo Nix = Drew Brees

Pat Bryant = Michael Thomas

Evan Engram = Not sure...a referred to 'joker' in the offense. Not really a Taysom Hill nor a Jimmy Graham? But 'joker'.

Marvin Mims = He hasn’t said it, but I hope he doesn’t think Mims is just a Deonte Harty/Harris.

I guess Audric Estime is his Mike Bell (look it up...one good season).

Who Courtland Sutton is from old Saints lore...I do not know. But Sutton is the only one of the names above that Payton wasn’t responsible for signing/drafting. He inherited Sutton. Maybe Sutton is Robert Meachem? Meachem did have 9 TDs in their Super Bowl winning season.

2026 is going to be the year Payton tries to find his ‘new Alvin Kamara’. It has to be true, soon because that’s a lot of what Payton talks about -- players in reference to his past guys. He drafted that basketball player/turned 2024 TE out of Utah in the 7th-round 6’8” Caleb Lohner, a guy no one thought was draftable -- a somewhat attempt at a Jimmy Graham.

Also, ‘his Taysom Hill’ has to be on the docket to draft or sign to shape/mold.

-- I asked Grok for a definition of 'joker' for Sean Payton, because the term gets thrown around but do we know the detail of what it is supposed to be? Here's a clip of the base answer:

In a Sean Payton offense, the term "joker" refers to a versatile, multi-dimensional player who creates matchup problems for defenses, particularly in the passing game, due to their ability to line up in various positions and exploit specific defensive alignments. The term is rooted in Payton’s offensive philosophy, which emphasizes flexibility, misdirection, and leveraging players who can disrupt defensive schemes. Below is a detailed explanation of what it means to be a "joker" in Payton’s system, especially in the context of the 2025 Denver Broncos and the players mentioned (Marvin Mims Jr., Evan Engram, etc.), based on Payton’s own words and available sources.

Definition and Role of a "Joker"

Core Concept: Payton uses the term "joker" to describe a skill-position player—typically a running back, tight end, or wide receiver—who can align in multiple spots (e.g., slot, outside, backfield, or even as a hybrid) to create mismatches against linebackers, safeties, or cornerbacks. The "joker" is a dynamic weapon who thrives in the "interior triangle" of the passing game (tight end, running back, third receiver), particularly on third downs and in the red zone.

-- This little report made me smile...but I know it’s just dumb non-contact (on the QBs) practices...but these were things I heard last year about Caleb in practice.

I got a bad feeling about Caleb for 2025...and that feeling is growing daily for the past two weeks...just a gut feel.

https://www.chicitysports.com/tyson-bagent-throw-chicago-bears-nfl-news

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 + IDPs have all updated. Next update will be next week.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season continues.

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5/24 SAT

(8:25amET)

-- Doing some research on the Indy QB situation, so I asked Grok for the latest words from the head coach and GM on the situation. Below is the info I got back + my comments on the coach’s/GM’s comments...

Q: what has Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard said about Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Riley Leonard in 2025

Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard have made several statements about quarterbacks Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Riley Leonard in 2025, primarily focusing on the team’s quarterback competition, their development, and their roles for the upcoming NFL season. These comments, sourced from Colts.com, Sports Illustrated, and other reliable outlets, reflect discussions during the NFL Owners Meetings, NFL Draft, and early OTAs (March–May 2025). Below is a comprehensive compilation of their direct quotes and reported remarks, organized by player, with context from the provided search results.

Anthony Richardson

Richardson, the 2023 No. 4 overall pick, faced challenges in 2024 (47.7% completion rate, 8 TDs, 12 INTs in 11 games) and is in a high-stakes competition with Daniel Jones. Steichen and Ballard remain optimistic about his potential but stress the need for consistency.

Shane Steichen on Richardson’s Consistency and Competition (March 31, 2025, NFL Annual League Meeting):

Quote: “They’re gonna split the one reps through spring practice and going into training camp. And it’s gonna come down to who’s the most consistent, who’s the most productive will be the starter. … You look around the league, teams that were in the playoffs, quarterback play was consistent there. So that’s what we’re looking for, [being] consistent at that position.”

Context: Steichen emphasized that Richardson and Jones will split first-team reps starting in OTAs, with the starting job hinging on consistency. He highlighted Richardson’s need to improve accuracy and decision-making, aligning with the Colts’ goal of playoff contention.

Shane Steichen on Richardson’s Development (April 10, 2025, The Colts Show):

Quote: “Anthony has shown flashes, and we’re building a system around his strengths. It’s about getting him those reps, cleaning up the footwork, and letting him grow through competition.”

Context: Steichen discussed tailoring the offense to Richardson’s mobility and playmaking, noting that competition with Jones will push him to refine his passing game (47.7% completion in 2024) and reduce turnovers (9 fumbles, 12 INTs).

Chris Ballard on Faith in Richardson Despite Struggles (April 9, 2025, The Colts Show):

Quote: “I think any time you’re (discussing) the GM, head coach relationship — and let’s include the owner in that equation — all of us, I would tell you, we don’t always agree in the initial moments. … We haven’t given up on Anthony. He’s got to work through his struggles, and they have to fail, and they have to get up, and have to get better from it.”

Context: Ballard addressed concerns that the Jones signing signals a lack of faith in Richardson, affirming belief in his upside despite 2024’s regression. He stressed that competition is a development tool, not a rejection of Richardson’s potential.

Chris Ballard on Competition Driving Growth (May 1, 2025, The Rich Eisen Show):

Quote: “Competition brings out the best in everybody. … They’ve got to work through their struggles, and they have to fail, and they have to get up, and have to get better from it. I think we have two guys that are an example of that had moments of success but also had struggles. To watch both Anthony and Daniel compete against each other is going to be good for both of them.”

Context: Ballard reiterated that the quarterback battle with Jones will elevate Richardson, who showed promise as a rookie (59.5% completion, 4 rushing TDs in 4 games) but regressed in 2024. He avoided setting a timeline for naming a starter, suggesting an extended competition.

*RC NOTE: Ballard, especially, is so full of Bull$#!%. NFL management NEVER brings on QB competitions on purpose, UNLESS they don’t have any real confidence in the QBs they have.

What the Colts are doing is creating elaborate messaging to make it seem like this is some wonderfully crafted competition that is so there to help Anthony Richardson. Total BS. They don’t really believe it. They’re at the end of their ropes, so maybe this dart throw might work for AR...but really/mostly it is an elaborate way to replace Anthony Richardson without being cold-blooded about it or fearing to look like they are doing it too quickly/being too rash about it.

If they had any faith in Richardson, they would not be doing all this...is my feeling...it’s been my feeling since last year. Once you bench a young, high pick QB for ‘effort’ and ‘leadership’ and ‘play’ -- that QB is all but done. They will hold on to AR to see if he might turn...they will not trade him for fear someone else gets a hold of him and makes something great and embarrasses them. It’s gonna take years to fix Richardson, if he can be fixed. And Shane Steichen doesn’t have years...he probably has THIS year. Chris Ballard, with Jim Irsay passing, is likely on his last year unless the Colts pull a miracle this season.

Daniel Jones

Jones, signed to a one-year, $14 million deal in March 2025, brings veteran experience (63.3% completion, 8 TDs, 7 INTs in 2024 with Minnesota) to compete with Richardson. Steichen and Ballard view him as a legitimate contender for the starting role and a fallback option if Richardson falters.

Shane Steichen on Jones’ Fit and Mobility (March 31, 2025, NFL Annual League Meeting):

Quote: “Jones was one of the guys that was at the top of the list [in free agency]. His mobility was a selling point on top of all of his other qualities. … I think you’ve got to build a system around your quarterback, that’s the most important thing. Does it help? Yeah, it helps to create.” *RC NOTE...yes, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and Joe Montana were so mobile...it’s why they were so great, their mobility. What a load of crap these Colts guys spew. What I don’t know is -- do they really believe this mobility nonsense, or do they think it just sounds smart in the cover up ‘messaging’ for their real plans of replacing AR? Maybe both?

Context: Steichen praised Jones’ 2022 efficiency (3,205 yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs) and mobility (708 rushing yards), noting his fit in a system that values quick releases and playmaking. He sees Jones as a potential Week 1 starter if he outperforms Richardson in OTAs and training camp.

Shane Steichen on Splitting Reps (March 31, 2025, via Stephen Holder):

Quote: “Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson will split starting reps beginning in OTAs and the most consistent QB will be the regular season starter.” *RC NOTE = if you don’t think that’s gonna be Daniel Jones, you’re grasping for straws with Richardson...and I was an original Richardson-lover. I’m taking a huge scouting hit here. But I gave up already...the writing is on the wall...in permanent ink. Who do you think will be most consistent in non-contact practices -- the under 50% Comp. Pct. passer (AR) or the controlled veteran (DJ)?
Context: Steichen confirmed an even split of first-team reps, signaling a true competition. His focus on consistency suggests Jones’ experience (70 games, 14,582 yards) could give him an edge if Richardson’s accuracy doesn’t improve.

Chris Ballard on Jones’ Competitive Value (March 25, 2025, NFL Scouting Combine):

Quote: “Between Daniel (Jones) and Anthony (Richardson), you’re gonna see a really good competition. … We gotta make the best decision for the team. Whatever the outcome is, the outcome is based on performance.”
Context: Ballard underscored that Jones’ signing (one-year, $14 million) is about pushing Richardson while ensuring a viable starter. He noted Jones’ 2024 stats (63.3% completion, 2 rushing TDs) make him a credible threat to win the job.

Chris Ballard on Jones’ Potential Impact (April 21, 2025, via James Boyd):

Quote: “Look, if I’m a betting man … at some point both of them will help us.”

Context: Ballard expressed confidence that Jones could contribute significantly, either as a starter or backup, citing his resilience after a 3-13 record in 2023–2024. The comment reflects a pragmatic view of Jones as insurance for Richardson’s inconsistency.

Riley Leonard

Leonard, a sixth-round pick (No. 189 overall) from Notre Dame in the 2025 NFL Draft, is a developmental quarterback with ties to Indiana and Philip Rivers. Steichen and Ballard see him as a long-term project, not an immediate competitor in the Richardson-Jones battle.

Shane Steichen on Leonard’s Fit (April 27, 2025, Post-Draft Press Conference):

Quote: “We liked Riley a lot during the draft process. … His skill set fits into what we’re trying to do offensively, and he’s got that leadership piece. He’s a guy we can develop behind the scenes.”

Context: Steichen highlighted Leonard’s 2024 Notre Dame performance (2,092 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs; 693 rushing yards, 13 TDs) and his familiarity with Colts staff via Rivers’ mentorship. Leonard is the third QB, filling a roster spot vacated by Sam Ehlinger’s departure to Denver.

Chris Ballard on Targeting Leonard (April 26, 2025, via Schultz_Report):

Quote: “Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard have been huge fans of Riley Leonard for quite some time. This was the QB they were targeting in the draft — elite athlete, tremendous leader, high-level processor.”
Context: Ballard confirmed Leonard was a priority late-round pick, valued for his athleticism (4.52 40-yard dash) and intangibles. His selection ensures depth, with endorsements from Steichen and Rivers reinforcing his potential as a future backup or trade asset.

Chris Ballard on Quarterback Depth (April 30, 2025, The Colts Show Mailbag):

Quote: “The Colts have carried three quarterbacks on their roster every year since 2022, and with Sam Ehlinger signing with the Denver Broncos as a free agent this offseason, there was a spot open there for a draft pick. The Colts liked Riley Leonard a lot.”

Context: Ballard explained Leonard’s draft pick as a strategic move to maintain three QBs, noting his upside (College Football Playoff appearance with Notre Dame) makes him a worthwhile investment, though he’s not expected to challenge Richardson or Jones in 2025.

*RC NOTE = So the Colts management team LOVED Riley Leonard...so much so, they drafted him. What QB do Leonard’s stated intangibles remind you of? Mobile, leadership, high-level processor...Anthony Richardson, right? NO, of course not...the leadership and high-level processor is the PROBLEM with Richardson. It does more describe a Daniel Jones type though.

If they signed Daniel Jones...and they drafted a Daniel Jones type...I think they might want a Daniel Jones type to be their QB...and they happen to possess Daniel Jones!

Additional Context

Quarterback Competition Dynamics: Steichen and Ballard have framed the Richardson-Jones battle as a merit-based competition, with no predetermined starter. Steichen’s emphasis on consistency () and Ballard’s focus on performance () suggest the winner must minimize turnovers and efficiently move the offense, critical after the Colts’ 2024 playoff miss (7-10 record). Leonard is a distant third, likely inactive on game days unless injuries arise.

Richardson’s Challenges: Both acknowledge Richardson’s struggles (47.7% completion, 12 INTs in 2024) but see his athleticism (6 rushing TDs) and youth (22 years old) as reasons to invest in his growth. Steichen’s system, built for mobile QBs like Jalen Hurts, aims to leverage Richardson’s strengths, but his 2024 benching underscores the urgency for improvement ().

Jones’ Opportunity: Steichen and Ballard value Jones’ experience and 2022 efficiency, viewing his $14 million deal as a low-risk, high-reward move (). His 208 career sacks highlight the need for Indy’s offensive line to protect him, but Steichen believes his quick-release play style suits the Colts’ scheme.

Leonard’s Role: Selected for his leadership and dual-threat ability, Leonard is a long-term project (). His Indiana ties and Rivers’ endorsement add intrigue, but Steichen and Ballard see him as a developmental QB, not a 2025 starter, with potential to compete if Richardson or Jones falter in future seasons.

*RC FINAL NOTE = My bet is pretty much ‘all-in’ that Daniel Jones is gonna be the Week 1 starter. And that was set in motion the week they decided to bench Richardson last season. And this will be an FF-good thing for Josh Downs.

-- Rachaad White is coming out guns a blazing this year!

https://www.nfl.com/news/buccaneers-rb-rachaad-white-aims-to-attack-contract-year-i-m-ready-to-prove-what-i-got

My first thought reading it was -- too bad you’re stuck so deep behind Bucky Irving!

But, I have some birdies telling me ‘not so fast, my friend’ on the Bucs being an all-Buckster backfield in 2025. More on that in the coming weeks as I flesh it out a little more.

But I will say, for right now...don’t get too frustrated/don’t give up on Rachaad just yet.

Just hold for a little bit.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 + IDPs have all updated. Next update will be next week.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season is underway, Weeks 4-6 today.

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5/23 FRI

(7:21amET)

-- Wait...

Hold on.

Another part of this Caleb Williams story I heard being debated was the -- ‘No one tells me what to watch to watch (on studying tape)! And that’s been interpreted as: How terrible is the Bears franchise?!?

Sure, go ahead and make fun of the Bears and thus have sympathy for poor untrained Caleb...but may I question the witness...your honor?

First off, my opening statement -- I don’t believe that is true/it’s a misleading comment/excerpt. The full quote was: “At times, Williams said he would watch film alone, with no instruction or guidance from the coaches. ‘No one tells me what to watch,’ Caleb Williams told his dad. ‘I just turn it on.’” So, are coaches supposed to spend every minute they have just waiting for Caleb to watch film...and then leap in to watch it with him?

And the media/fans are taking this as -- no one EVER watched tape with Caleb. Are you trying to tell me that the coaches who LIVE for staying late at team facilities and watching tape...you’re telling me no one watched tape with Caleb? I find that very hard to believe.

You’re telling me that Shane Waldron, who was trained with and under Sean McVay going back to their time at Redskins, I do believe, and then Waldron hired by the Rams where he held the jobs of: Quality control coach, QB coach, Passing Game Coordinator...then poached away by Seattle to be the O-C to work with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith, and then was hired to work in Chicago after Pete Carroll left Seattle -- you’re telling me that guy doesn’t study tape...and doesn’t study it with the QB...the rookie QB? I find that absolutely implausible.

There is one way I could see it happening frequently, and have seen (heard) it happening -- and that’s that the coordinator or coach wants to work with the QB, but the QB blows it off and is never available during the day to do it and that QB doesn’t stay late (an NFL crime) to get the work in. It’s usually the QB’s fault that they didn’t spend time with the coaches studying...because that QB didn’t want to, and/or said he already studied earlier while the coaches were in other meetings. The coaches aren’t going to force a #1 pick QB to do something he doesn’t want to do or isn’t around later when most of them do such things.

And if this were really true, that know one helped Caleb -- then why didn’t Caleb demand somebody stay and help him? He’s a grown-ass-man. If you need help, you flex your power (that he absolutely has) and make people stay and work with you or go to the head coach and get them fired.

I wonder what the count of times Caleb organized late tape study group sessions versus times Caleb sat in the front row of a Chicago Bulls game or in a luxury box for a game. I know which I think happened more...

If no one ever helped Caleb study tape...then that’s a Caleb problem, in large part -- and yet no one is even broaching that possibility in the mainstream...they’re more taking potshots at the Bears for being inept; the easy target. I find it all very hard to believe.

I grow colder and colder on Caleb. In Feb.-March, I was starting to think maybe he would work out of some of his terrible habits with Ben Johnson, but I am more thinking -- my first scouting instincts were correct -- he’s a very flawed QB, who is spoiled and emotionally stunted and isn’t cut out to be a face of the franchise QB...on the field or off.

It’s very possible that Caleb is a more physically gifted, lower-key version of the Shedeur Sanders’s story.

I am turning sour on Caleb and all Bears passing game things. I feel a problem is hiding right in front of our faces, but the mainstream has a hundred excuses for him. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels didn’t have any problems adjusting to the NFL. We might look back someday and see that Caleb was the 5th/6th-best QB of his draft...and is ultimately a bust...and Ryan Poles should be banished from ever being involved in a QB decision ever.

-- I asked Grok a question about the latest coaching talk on the KC backfield for some research. Here’s the answer I got, that you might find parts of interesting...

Q: what has Andy Reid and Matt Nagy said about Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, and Brashard Smith in 2025

A: Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy have shared insights about running backs Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, and Brashard Smith during the 2025 offseason, particularly around free agency, the NFL Draft, and early OTAs. These comments, sourced from reputable outlets like CBS Sports, The Athletic, and Sports Illustrated, reflect their expectations, roles, and integration into the Chiefs’ backfield for the 2025 NFL season. Below is a detailed compilation of their direct quotes and reported statements, organized by player, with context from the provided search results.

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco, entering his contract year in 2025, is viewed as the Chiefs’ RB1 despite a 2024 season marred by a Week 2 fibula fracture. Reid and Nagy express confidence in his recovery and potential to reclaim his explosive form.

Andy Reid on Pacheco’s Recovery and Upside (April 10, 2025, AFC West Owners Meeting):

Quote: “I think he’ll be better this year. He was forcing that thing coming back. Most guys probably haven’t come back, but if you know him for a minute you know he wasn’t going to be held back. I think you’ll get an even better player this year.”

Context: Reid highlighted Pacheco’s toughness in returning from a broken fibula in Week 13, despite limited production (175 yards on 49 carries post-injury, 37 yards on 13 playoff carries). He expects Pacheco to regain his 2023 form (935 yards, 7 TDs), positioning him as the lead back with top-10 fantasy upside if healthy.

Matt Nagy on Pacheco’s Resilience (May 6, 2025, Rookie Minicamp):

Reported Context: Nagy emphasized Pacheco’s work ethic and leadership, noting his presence at rookie minicamp to mentor younger backs like Brashard Smith, per The Athletic. While no direct quote was provided, Nagy’s comments align with Reid’s, framing Pacheco as the backfield’s anchor despite 2024’s setbacks.

*RC NOTE* That’s not an unimportant statement about Pacheco being at rookie minicamp...

Kareem Hunt

Hunt, re-signed to a one-year, $1.5 million deal in 2025, took over as the primary back during Pacheco’s absence in 2024. Reid and Nagy value his veteran presence but acknowledge competition in the crowded backfield.

Andy Reid on Hunt’s Role (March 31, 2025, Pre-Draft Press Conference):

Reported Context: Reid expressed satisfaction with re-signing Hunt, noting his 2024 performance (117 playoff yards on 28 carries, 4.2 YPC) provided stability, per A to Z Sports. No direct quote was given, but Reid’s comments suggest Hunt remains a key depth piece, though his age (30) and one-year deal raise questions about his long-term role.

Matt Nagy on Hunt’s Versatility (May 19, 2025, OTA Preview):

Reported Context: Nagy highlighted Hunt’s ability to handle a heavy workload in 2024, out-snapping Pacheco down the stretch, per Sports Illustrated. Nagy sees Hunt as a reliable option in both rushing and pass protection, but no specific quote was provided, and his role may shrink with Pacheco’s return and new additions.

Elijah Mitchell

Mitchell, signed to a one-year, $2.5 million deal in March 2025 after missing 2024 with a hamstring injury, is viewed as a high-upside addition. Reid and Nagy are optimistic about his speed and receiving skills.

Andy Reid on Mitchell’s Fit and Health (April 10, 2025, AFC West Owners Meeting):

Quote: “He’s a good football player. I think he’s a good kid. He’s got a little quickness and speed. He also has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and you can flex him out to catch the ball. When he was healthy he did a great job in San Francisco.”

Context: Reid praised Mitchell’s 2021 rookie season (963 yards in 11 games) and believes his recovery from a 2024 injury makes him a dynamic third-down back to complement Pacheco. His role hinges on staying healthy, a concern given his injury history (never played more than 11 games in a season).

Matt Nagy on Mitchell’s Integration (May 6, 2025, Rookie Minicamp):

Reported Context: Nagy noted Mitchell’s early chemistry with Patrick Mahomes in minicamp drills, per The Athletic, emphasizing his pass-catching ability as a former receiver. No direct quote was provided, but Nagy’s focus on Mitchell’s versatility suggests a planned role in sub-packages.

Brashard Smith

Smith, a seventh-round pick (No. 228 overall) from SMU in the 2025 NFL Draft, is a converted receiver with comparisons to Pacheco. Reid and Nagy see him as a developmental piece with special teams potential.

Andy Reid on Smith’s Physicality and Hands (May 6, 2025, Rookie Minicamp):

Quote: “Some of the backs have a low center of gravity; they can kind of move where they can drop their weight a little bit. It looks like he has that, now nobody has hit him, so it will be a little different story there. And it looks like he has good hands.”

Context: Reid commented on Smith’s agility and receiving skills, drawing from his college tape (1,295 kickoff return yards, 53 returns). He cautioned that Smith’s transition to NFL physicality needs testing, projecting him as a kick returner and reserve RB behind Pacheco, Hunt, and Mitchell.

Matt Nagy on Smith’s Potential Role (May 20, 2025, OTA Preview):

Reported Context: Nagy expressed excitement about Smith’s 4.39 speed and elusiveness, per Forbes, seeing him as a “chess piece” for creative plays like jet sweeps or screen passes. No direct quote was provided, but Nagy’s comments suggest Smith could carve out a niche similar to Jerick McKinnon’s former RB3 role.

Additional Context

Backfield Dynamics: Reid and Nagy face a crowded backfield with Pacheco as the starter, Hunt and Mitchell on one-year deals, and Smith as a rookie. Reid traditionally prefers a lead back (per Arrowhead Addict), but 2024’s committee approach (Hunt out-snapping Pacheco) may continue if Pacheco struggles.

Injury Concerns: Pacheco’s fibula fracture, Mitchell’s hamstring issues, and Hunt’s age (30) create uncertainty, which Reid and Nagy address by emphasizing depth and competition (SI.com). Smith’s health and inexperience make him a long-term project.

Draft Strategy: The Chiefs’ choice to draft Smith late, despite adding Mitchell and Hunt, reflects Reid’s confidence in Pacheco but also a hedge against injuries, per Forbes. Nagy’s play-calling could leverage Smith’s receiving background for mismatches.

Fantasy Implications: Reid’s high expectations for Pacheco (top-10 upside, Round 5 draft value) and Mitchell’s third-down role make them fantasy-relevant, per CBS Sports. Hunt’s reduced role and Smith’s limited snaps lower their immediate value.

*RC NOTES on the Grok notes* Not many or overwhelming quotes to work with, but there were some nuggets -- it does have the feel that Pacheco will be the ‘starter’ with Hunt and Mitchell helping out, Hunt maybe 60/40 split with Pacheco...Mitchell sprinkled in and Brashard Smith a developmental 1-2 gadget plays and special teams return guy. Pacheco may not be FF-dead yet... He is the ‘heart & soul’, but I fear Hunt is too...so it’s hard to say who has the true upper hand, if anyone does.

-- Here’s a nice junk food article from ESPN on their projections for the rookies. I don’t endorse it...it’s just a ‘passing the time’ thing to skim if you’re bored.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45161138/2025-nfl-season-projections-rookie-leaders-statistics-touchdowns-sacks

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 have updated. IDP will update today.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin today, Weeks 1-3.

=====================

*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:

***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

5/22 THU

(6:25amET)

-- You have probably seen the articles or reports and/or pictures of newly ‘jacked’ Marvin Harrison. If you haven’t, the story is basically -- Harrison put on a lot of muscle this offseason for the upcoming 2025 campaign.

That news/the images have been met with the mainstream masses drooling over it...NOW, Marvin is going to be even more generational, I mean look at that body!

Was this the problem with Marv in 2024? He just needed more muscle? How is that going to help him separate from coverage...because THAT IS his main issue? More muscle mass/weight/bulk isn’t making Marv any faster.

The mainstream is so desperate for this (Marv) to work...actually, they’re not desperate at all -- they are absolutely convinced this is going to be special beyond imagination. While Marv floundered and Nabers-Thomas-Ladd killed, the Marv owners are not asking themselves the question -- Why was that...how did the other rookie WRs ‘kill it’ and Marv, who was supposed to be 10x better than any other WR from 2024...how did he not ‘kill it’? They are assuming another year’s experience in the offense (what a load of BS people con themselves with on that), and some added muscle is all that is needed.

All of it...a fallacy.

THEY were sold a lie on Marv, and they are not going to give up on that lie because they don’t think they were lied to...the entirety of NFL scouting and analysis CAN NOT be wrong.

I guess you could say it wasn’t technically a lie...it was more incompetence than lying. Is it lying when everyone in football says they’ve never seen such a polished, ready-to-go, generational WR? Did they not really see it and just echoed what everyone else said? Did they watch a few plays in some game or a 1-minute highlight tape and checked the box ‘I saw it’? Every scout gets something wrong -- but Marv is kind of a giant chasm of a miss...because it was this supposed, obvious talent and no one disagreed. The entirety of NFL scouting and analysis should be flushed from the system because of how bad this scouting was. But that won’t happen.

The comedy of it is...no reputations were damaged. All the same people who SWORE they saw Marv tape/did studies and saw the greatest WR prospect of our generation -- the next thing ‘they see’ will be lapped up by the masses. The football masses never learn.

I used to be part of the football masses a long time ago.

Never again.

Congrats on the new muscles, Marv.

Maybe he’s gonna move to tight end eventually and is just getting a head start?

-- You know it’s a slow football news cycle when we get the Bhayshul Tuten “fumble heard ‘round the world!” story/s.

He fumbled one time...at practice.

Who cares?

Who cares? The football media that’s who...the group who needs something to write about. This news is actually taking Tuten’s ADP down some in Best Ball and in Rookie Drafts. Why? How? Because it is in the news...and the FF masses gobble up football headlines like candy/crack.

It was one fumble, and we have no idea the full context, etc. But it was an 11-on-11 live drill...and it was the first play of that session, so it sticks out more than if he had done that late in the session.

Now, to their credit, some of the FF blurb artists do bring up (with this BIG fumble story) that Tuten had fumble issues in college...which makes sense to do, but as for the fumble itself...it shouldn’t be this giant news moment. It’s ‘forcing’ news. Now, if he fumbled on 2-3 of his 5-10 touches...then we’ve got an issue, or if he fumbles in every session/practice day, then we got a trend going.

You should really blame Liam Coen for this. He could have blown it off -- instead he took to the mic and said (for some reason), “He put the ball on the ground today, that kinda stands out…”

You know NFL coaches and fumbles... They can watch their QB throw a million picks and watch their defense miss a ton of tackles, but God forbid a running back fumble once. And it’s OK if they do if the offense recovers, but heaven help us if it is a turnover. It doesn’t get any worse for an NFL head coach than a lost fumble.

Coen followed the bringing up of the fumble opening line with something even stupider. Coen said, “...Good learning experience, first time in a live setting in the National Football League on your first carry — hopefully you learn something from that moment.”

What is he learning? Did he not know that it is bad to fumble...but now he knows he should not fumble? Thank God for these practices to teach RBs that they shouldn’t fumble. What’s next, telling the QBs that interceptions are not a desired result of a pass play?

Well... Actually, the Jags QBs were throwing picks in the same session...Prince Trevor happened to throw two picks in the 11-on-11 session. I’m not great at math, but I think that’s like twice as bad as one fumble? Surely, Coen jumped on Trevor’s case! Coen talked about the picks as well, and said: “We’re not even close. We’re working toward playing in September, obviously. So, at this point it is strictly how much can we actually learn from every day. We’re not evaluating maybe some of the things that you would normally evaluate in a game or in a season.”

Oh, shocker...the picks are fine.

And they are also LEARNING LESSONS. Man, what a great hire Liam Coen is...these players didn’t know NOT to fumble the ball and not to throw a bunch of picks...but NOW they know! Coen might turn all their careers around with these great teaching moments!

-- I thought this was a mildly interesting note with a few tidbits to consider:

https://catcrave.com/jalen-ramsey-stuns-panthers-fans-bold-ejiro-evero-prediction

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 have updated. IDP will update later this week.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week...FRI projected launch.

=====================

*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

5/21 WED

(6:36amET)

-- Well, there was this news/quote that came in from the Titans yesterday: (using the NBC headline/report)...

Brian Callahan said during a Tuesday press conference that Tony Pollard in 2024 “carried the ball a lot” and that “in a perfect world, we have to have more of an even split with Pollard, [Tyjae] Spears,” and potentially a third back.

My take is: I do take this comment to heart a little bit, but mostly I think it is ‘wishful thinking’...or ‘things that sound good to say in the offseason’. Callahan said this last year, multiple times, and then went heavy with Pollard -- because it was the only thing working for them...and Pollard, given the circumstances, was terrific...playing hurt late in the season and still making hay on that trash team and trash O-Line (but decent at run blocking on the left side).

Pollard is a kind of ‘heart & soul’ RB for the Titans/Callahan. And I think Callahan wants to preserve Pollard some, which all head coaches say they do (like when they say they want to lessen the load on Derrick Henry or CMC, over the years...they never do...it just sounds altruistic/good to say, but when the bullets fly it’s all different) and I’m sure Callahan has some daydream fantasy RBBC backfield that tears up the NFL with three 1,000+ yard runners -- but the moment the backfield share didn’t tear up the NFL not even close, in-season 2024, he went right to heavy Pollard.

I think Callahan really believes what he said, this second...and then he’ll forget about it partway through Week 1 when Denver is kicking their arse and when they’re (0-2), (0-3), (0-4), etc.

I don’t think this quote is something to be in total fear of for Pollard 2025.

I think it’s more a starter’s pistol to explore ‘buy low’ from panicked current owners who see the quote. Emphasis on ‘low’.

-- Minor odd quirk in the AFC West schedules...

AFC West teams and the count of games scheduled where they have to play at 1pmET this season:

6 = LA Chargers

5 = Las Vegas

4 = KC Chiefs

2 = Denver

You’d intuitively think it’s a burden to play in 1pmET games for Western teams, but...

Records in 1pmET games in 2024:

(5-0) = KC

(4-1) = LAC

(2-2) = DEN

(2-3) = LV

*others*

(3-0) = SEA

(2-1) = LAR

(1-1) = SF

(1-4) = ARI

Western division teams went (20-12) in 1pmET games in 2024 season.

-- I ran this from Grok on research yesterday, and sharing it here:

Zack Moss 2024 Injury Update

Zack Moss, running back for the Cincinnati Bengals, suffered a significant neck injury during practice before Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season, leading to his placement on Injured Reserve (IR) on November 5, 2024. The injury was first reported as a late addition to the Bengals’ injury report on Friday before their game against the Las Vegas Raiders, ruling him out for that contest. Subsequent evaluations revealed the severity of the neck issue, with NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reporting that Moss would require two months of rest before re-evaluation, effectively ending his regular season. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Moss was “out indefinitely,” and the team traded for Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert to bolster their backfield depth behind Chase Brown.

The neck injury did not require surgery, a positive development noted after Moss consulted renowned spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported cautious optimism, stating, “A source said that while Moss is unlikely to return to action in 2024, surgery is not deemed necessary at this point,” suggesting a focus on rest and recovery. Moss was shut down after Week 8, missing the remainder of the regular season, with a slim chance of a playoff return only if the Bengals made a deep postseason run. However, given the two-month rest period and the need for physical ramp-up, a 2024 return was deemed unlikely.

Moss’ 2024 stats before the injury included 74 carries for 242 yards (3.3 YPC, a career-low tie) and 2 rushing touchdowns, plus 23 receptions on 27 targets for 187 yards and 1 receiving touchdown over eight games. He began the season as the Bengals’ RB1 but saw his role diminish as Chase Brown emerged, out-snapping Moss in Weeks 7–8 (49% snap share for Moss vs. 56% for Brown).

2025 Outlook

The outlook for Zack Moss in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that he will be ready for the start of the season based on his recovery progress and contract developments. Key points include:

Recovery Timeline: The two-month rest period ended around early January 2025, and consultations with Dr. Watkins indicated Moss is likely to avoid surgery, positioning him for a full recovery by training camp or earlier. Specialists’ optimism, as reported by Fowler, suggests Moss should be cleared for football activities by spring 2025, barring setbacks.

Contract Status: On April 21, 2025, the Bengals and Moss agreed to a reworked contract for the final year of his two-year, $8 million deal, adding guaranteed money for 2025. This move, reported by Mike Garafolo, signals the team’s confidence in Moss’ recovery and intent to retain him, despite his 2024 injury. The restructured deal ensures Moss remains with Cincinnati, though he is locked into a backup role behind Chase Brown, who solidified his RB1 status with 4.6 YPC in 2024.

Role and Competition: Moss is expected to serve as a primary reserve alongside Samaje Perine, who was re-signed in free agency. CBSSports.com notes Moss’ experience between the tackles and on third downs makes him valuable, but his “season-long volume limitations” due to past injuries (e.g., knee concerns at Utah, 2023 arm injury) and Brown’s emergence cap his upside. The Bengals’ decision not to draft a running back in 2025 further secures Moss’ roster spot, but he’ll face competition for touches from Perine and potentially Khalil Herbert or UDFAs. *RC Note: Not likely since Herbert is now with Indy.

Fantasy and Performance Outlook: Moss’ 2025 fantasy value is limited as a backup. His 2024 efficiency (3.3 YPC) was underwhelming compared to Brown’s 4.6 YPC, and his neck injury adds risk. However, his pass-catching ability (23 catches in 8 games) and goal-line experience (3 TDs in 2024) make him a situational flex option in PPR leagues, especially if Brown were injured. Pro Football Network highlights Moss’ “three-down skill set,” noting his pass-blocking and receiving skills, but his ceiling is RB2 at best. RotoWire projects him as a depth piece, with 4.5 YPC potential (as seen in Indianapolis, 2022–23) if given opportunities.

Health Concerns: Moss’ injury history—2023 arm injury, 2020–22 knee issues, and now the 2024 neck injury—raises durability questions. The neck injury’s long-term impact is unclear, but avoiding surgery is a positive sign, and his age (27 in 2025) suggests he can still contribute if healthy.

*RC NOTE* Why is this giving me A.J. Dillon 2023 into 2024 vibes? AJD missed all 2024 after a ‘neck issue’ in 2023.

-- A couple of interesting reports on a couple of rookie RBs:

https://www.therams.com/news/how-jarquez-hunter-powerlifting-molded-him-into-explosive-runner-squats-deadlifts-600-pounds

https://www.nfl.com/news/steelers-rookie-rb-kaleb-johnson-on-versatility-i-could-be-a-derrick-henry-back-or-i-could-be-a-dalvin-cook-back

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 have updated. IDP will update later this week.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week...THU or FRI projected launch.

=====================

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

5/20 TUE

(7:18amET)

-- The latest report on Aaron Rodgers is from his biographer, who speculated that Rodgers could sign with the Steelers by the end of May...that there is a personal issue of some sort that is holding back Rodgers from signing right now.

That report is being taken as -- oh, he knows something. I read the comments...I still think people are assuming that Rodgers only has one option and it’s Pittsburgh, so they start with that conclusion and fill in reasons as to why there is a delay now. Which it may be true, that Rodgers signs with the Steelers in the end, but I still don’t think anyone really knows...they are all just strongly hoping and assuming.

It seems like every week someone knows ‘it’s likely this week’...and then the week comes and goes with no Rodgers signing. I think it is very much up in the air, but odds are Rodgers-to-Pitt is what happens.

I think Rodgers is, to use a blackjack metaphor/scenario, splitting his aces into two separate hands here...because he can, apparently.

1) He is not going to sign with the Steelers (if he does) until official training camp time because Rodgers has no interest in attending any summer camps. He has long advocated for there to be a ban on summer minicamps, etc. He thinks they are a waste of time.

So, he couldn’t get the various minicamps universally banned for all the NFL...but he can ‘ban’ them for himself -- by not signing a deal until he’s ready to.

Rodgers has leverage, and he’s using it. The Steelers are letting him, so why not take advantage when you hold the cards?

2) With that leverage and with the desire to not attend summer camp, he can wait until June or July to sign with Pittsburgh...but then has the flexibility to sign with any other team IF something wonderful opens up, and then he doesn’t have to play with the Steelers. Who knows what QB could get randomly hurt during the summer?

And I do think Rodgers would like to sign with any number of other teams instead of the Steelers.

So, this may drag out until the end of May...or June...or July.

Rodgers ‘holds the cards’ and he is playing them. Good for him. I think the ‘personal issues’ is just the excuse and/or the talk of the option of him retiring is also an excuse for him to stay away all summer and then sign a big deal when he wants to. It’s good to see employees (the player) using their leverage over management (the NFL/its team/s). Rare that a player can have that leverage.

If you don’t like it because it doesn’t help ‘the team’, etc. Then I ask...would you rather have Mason Rudolph start Week 1/the season after attending every camp and practice there was and living at the team facility all offseason...or would you choose Aaron Rodgers to literally walk in the door on September 1st and start Week 1/the season?

You would choose Rodgers/Sept. 1st.

Don’t blame Rodgers...blame the Steelers. They could’ve moved on if they didn’t think this was their best option/weren’t fine with the delay/didn’t care about ‘camp’/’offseason practices’.

...speaking of ‘Strength of Schedule’, like we did yesterday...the Steelers on a team’s schedule totally changes perspective/impact with Rodgers or Rudolph at QB. So, what the Steelers record was last year is meaningless to their 2025 value/outlook on the schedule strength for opponents.

-- In case you’re interested, in doing some research, I asked Grok for the latest on Rashid Shaheed’s injury and recovery timeline, etc.

Here is Grok’s answer:

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed suffered a meniscus injury during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season. He underwent surgery to fully repair the meniscus, which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2024 season. The recovery timeline for such an injury is typically four to six months, meaning Shaheed was expected to be ready for the start of the 2025 season, barring any setbacks.

As of late November 2024, Shaheed shared a positive update on his recovery, posting a video on Instagram showing him walking without assistance for the first time since the surgery. This milestone indicated he was on track with the projected timeline. Given that it’s now mid-May 2025, Shaheed should be fully recovered and ready to return for the 2025 season, which aligns with the initial prognosis of being back by Week 1 of 2025. However, there have been no specific updates since November 2024 confirming his current status, so it’s worth noting that unexpected complications could have delayed his return, though there’s no evidence of this.

Additionally, recent reports from early May 2025 suggest the Saints might be considering trading Shaheed this offseason, indicating confidence in his recovery and value as a player. This aligns with the expectation that he’s likely back to full health, as teams typically don’t trade players who aren’t fit to play. Shaheed’s role as an explosive wide receiver and All-Pro punt returner makes his return significant for the Saints—or potentially another team if a trade occurs.

*RC Note* I’m hoping he can get back fast enough to get in a ton of work with Tyler Shough to hit the ground running with him this season. I’m a big Shaheed fan -- but coming off a serious injury + a new/rookie QB = sketchy for FF 2025.

-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:

https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open

-- For those that have partaken of this player in a recent DRD, here’s a potential screen saver if you need one...

https://x.com/Panthers/status/1924209339490857204

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty updated yesterday, Best Ball top 600 will update today and IDP will update later this week.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week, midweek or so.

=====================

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

5/19 MON

(8:33amET)

-- Two thoughts on the NFL schedule release, as I’m getting to the end of processing it within our computer models and getting more and more into analysis mode of it.

1) Do you agree with the following statement/concept...? I think the early NFL schedule is way more important for a team than the later schedule...for NFL and Fantasy purposes.

A pretend example of what I am thinking: If an NFL team starts out (4-1) or (1-4) their whole current and probably future world changes rapidly...one direction or the other.

Momentum is with the ‘hot’ team (4-1)...the practices get sharper...the mood in the locker room rises...the players can taste an opportunity...the play calls can get more ‘free’ from the coaches...a loss ahead isn’t the gut punch that it is for struggling teams. A hot-start team might make a trade to keep the ‘mo’ going into.

The ‘cold’ team (1-4)...players are getting benched and/or yelled at and/or getting more media criticism...coaches feel the pressure big time and start changing playbooks, practices, and play calls...and maybe coordinators, etc. Suddenly, game #6 is massive when you’re (1-4). Trade rumor reports rise within the media. Should a QB be benched? All that, and then some, can/will hit with a cold start.

If early schedule matters more for a potential ‘domino effect’ as they go -- why is NFL schedule analysis mostly done on a ‘every game is equal’ basis? All 17 games are given an equal value of whatever value (usually based on last year’s record or this year’s Vegas win total over/under) because it’s easier and cleaner to do that, but I don’t think it’s that valuable to analyze it that way. I don’t do that in my schedule analysis. I weigh my ‘strength of schedule’ for early games over later games...but you also have to consider later games outdoors in the northeast and Midwest in December and January for teams that aren’t accustomed to that weather or any other potential weather scenarios/trends. A simple example: You’d rather play the Bills at Buffalo in September than in mid-December. That makes sense right? Statistically, it absolutely makes sense with the current iteration of the Bills with Josh Allen. But in any NFL strength of schedule you will see...at Buffalo has the same impact in the calculations whether it is played in Sept. or Dec. or any time. I just think that’s not the right way to look at the schedule.

The same goes for Fantasy Football...I don’t care what the NFL’s W/L projected strength of schedule is for (example) the 49ers (that it is so easy/favorable) -- that matters for wins/losses overall, but not for Fantasy Football impact. The impact to (example) Brock Purdy is on what the opposing pass game defensive ratings are...and not their ‘win-loss percentage from the year prior’ or not even ‘what they ranked on pass defense last year’...I think you have to interpret the defense from last year but also more importantly the free agency and draft moves teams made that impact that defensive rating, and any coaching changes.

‘Strength of Schedule’ impact on FF players is a scouting ‘art’ (you have to know the defensive opposition’s future abilities better than anyone else) THEN it is a ‘science’ (calculating the ‘art’/ratings to the overall schedule).

But we also have to consider that the early season games matter WAY more for Fantasy than it does for NFL wins/losses. Because if you draft/have ‘Player X’ and they have a brutal Weeks 1-3 schedule...then I don’t give a $#!# what their ‘FF playoff schedule looks like’ or what their overall schedule feels like -- if a player burns you early, you will cry and whine and bench and trade them, you’ll never see the later schedule with them. So, one of the things I am looking at this past week, since the schedule released, is looking at star players that could burn us off the jump...the players to avoid -- or the opposite, ones to dive in on because of the early schedule getting you (for FF) off to the (4-1) start vs. the (1-4) start.

I’ve been in the FF game for 15+ years...involved with countless teams, owners, and getting to watch a ton of subscriber’s teams and dilemmas over the years, and let me tell you something about people’s summer time FF theories -- even if they are genius, they mostly get thrown out the door if you lose Week 1 of your FF season...and if you then lose Week 2, to go to (0-2), most FF owners will totally panic and want to change everything...and I never hear (from an 0-2 start team) ‘well, I’m being patient because the NFL’s month of May strength of schedule chart that I drafted towards should go in my favor soon’. That ain’t happening -- pure panic selling/buying and benching and churning of players is happening after an (0-2) start.

So, if you wonder what I think about the ‘strength of schedule’ from the NFL media being so good or bad for whatever team or a team’s players -- my take is: I have no idea because I barely look at the NFL’s strength of schedule stuff because it is 101% meaningless to the way I live my football analysis life.

I am on a mission to interpret schedules better than anyone in the world...doesn’t mean I’ll nail them 100%, it’s impossible. But all I need to do is just be better than everyone else interpreting schedules in the summer -- and then I weave that magic into the Redraft, Best Ball, Dynasty and betting projections to try to find a way to get an edge to make some ROI.

Part of the secret sauce of FFM, to me, is...interpreting the schedules better than anyone, but the REAL KEY is understanding and interpreting things in-season week-to-week as injuries or emerging things hit and demand a reaction faster than anyone else can figure out...which is why we’re so successful streaming defenses or kickers or everything during a typical FF season.

Schedule analysis is an everyday process/grind, not just a simple look back at 2024 and assume into 2025 and never change it.

2) What do I think of the schedule release video controversies...?

I could not care less.

I didn’t watch a second of any of them. Seriously, not one second. I understand there is some controversy with one of them...I don’t even know what it is.

They have gotten so ridiculous the past few years...the video production teams for NFL teams suddenly thinks this is their Oscar winning moment, they’re Martin Scorsese moment...it’s junk food for starving football fans. And I am starving for the info too...just, all I want is the actual info...not the production team’s ‘art house vision’ on the schedule.

I’m happy that football is so beloved that the schedule release is ‘a thing’. It’s just not a thing for me...not the videos -- but the actual schedule release itself is wonderful for me to go dig into to try to find betting and FF angles. I don’t have time to watch the silly videos. I’ll watch other silly things to cleanse my mind/palette before I watch schedule release videos. Usually, I’m listening to stock market podcasts or streamers when I am doing things that don’t require full football focus/writing. Why would I watch a ‘schedule release’ video with my valuable time?

Made you feel bad if you did/you like them! Sorry. If you enjoy them...and you have a favorite team -- watch them to your heart’s content. I have no favorite team; except the team I have bets on at any given moment or big FF investment into.

-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:

https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open

-- Something that I did watch instead of schedule release videos the past couple weeks...?

I watched the Netflix series: ‘How Do To Sell Drugs Online (Fast)’, and I am giving it an RC ‘two thumbs up’ recommendation.

I was looking for something to watch since I finished Netflix’s ‘You’, and man was ‘You’ way better than I ever thought it would be...got sucked into that one quickly. I saw this ‘How Do To Sell Drugs Online (Fast)’ in my ‘you might like’ area of Netflix, so I watched the trailer and thought...I might like that, actually. So, I gave it a one-episode trial...after I went three episodes in I was like ‘this is OK, not great’...but I’m glad I stuck with it because it started to spread its wings and fly from there. The first three episodes are needed to set up where they are going.

Four seasons, six episodes per season. And each season got better and better...and I am really glad I watched it. It’s like ‘Breaking Bad’, only with high school students stumbling into ‘the game’ by accident and it going to places they never imagined.

I would attach a trailer for you to get a glimpse, BUT it’s a German series that got dubbed (and it’s fine/not an issue for watching)...but, oddly, all the YouTube trailers are in German. The one American voice over trailer I saw gave away WAY too much of the story.

I would recommend you NOT watching any trailer and just diving in and experiencing it because it gets twisted on plot quickly. If you liked a ‘Breaking Bad’ type series or ‘Ozark’, etc., you will like this. Even the Netflix pop up trailer when you hover the cursor over the show...don’t watch it, it spoils the experience, I believe. Just jump into it blind and sit back and enjoy the ride. No nudity. Basic swearing. The focus is more on the characters and plot and not sex or gore.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty, Best Ball top 600 and IDP update running a day behind. Should be out today.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week, midweek or so.