RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
5/4 SUN
(9:00amET)
-- Notes from the DRD frontline/ADPs...
Of interest, Tetairoa McMillan...he’s trending towards ‘falling’ in DRDs that I’ve seen the past 24-48 hours.
Jeanty-Hampton-Hunter and Henderson are ‘givens’ right now. Henderson more heat than I would have thought coming out of the NFL Draft/into the DRD. The media loves and respects those 4 guys and the masses follow the media hivemind.
The media, however, is kinda scared of McMillan -- scared of what people said about him pre-Draft...all the negatives = ‘can’t separate’ (statistically and tape-wise untrue), ‘doesn’t study tape (false)’. They tried to talk him down and still he went top 10 overall with teams trying to trade up to get him. Dallas was basing their 1st-round/draft on getting him #12. The Rams among others were trying to move up.
If you look back at the top 10 players just drafted, nine of them had nothing but glowing pre-Draft coverage -- if you tried to knock Will Campbell for short arms, or Mason Graham for short arms and general play, or Membou and his lack of polish...the media wasn’t having it. You were laughed at as stupid if you didn’t ‘get it’...just like they wailed and moaned how stupid everyone was if they criticized Shedeur for his interviews and presence and cockiness -- it wasn’t cocky, it was CONFIDENCE! Rich Eisen and Colin Cowherd (who has since turned on SS) admonished me in Feb.-Mar.-Apr. about not understanding the modern-day athlete. Only they were so enlightened to ‘get it’ on why Shedeur was so great/not an issue. Now, they’re shocked at the Shedeur collapse. Who’s the stupid one now...and then/all along?
But Tet in the pre-Draft process...there was some real worry...some people said he can’t separate and that’s scary, we should love the fast guy from the Combine because we know he’s fast (Golden)...the fact that he sucked his entire college career didn’t matter...the fact that Tet had some of the best separation metrics in college football, somebody saw ‘it’ on tape and for some reason many in the media followed the narrative...whereas they mocked anyone who questioned any of the other nine top 10 draft picks.
The NFL media is really weird...and worse than political media.
The way they’re all shocked by this Shedeur Sanders fall makes me laugh and cringe. The defenders of Shedeur were also the questioners of Tet, so their opinion means zilch for me...as it has for 15+ years...it was why I started FFM in the 1st-place -- why do we listen to people (in sports media) who are almost always wrong?
Well, for the 15th+ year in a row, the media negativity is affecting the public in FF media and thus in real DRDs. I see Tet going anywhere from #2 to #7 in DRDs...with a lot of #4-5 more than #2-3 the past 24-48 hours.
FYI.
-- If you have an interest in Jayden Blue for current DRDs or FF in general, I think you’ll like this interview/find it very informative.
An interview that starts a little slow/dull, but then some interesting nuggets that were dropped as it goes...with a possible real ‘reveal’ of info from a firsthand observer.
Following up on the 2024 injury talk...Grok weighed in with the following (on Blue):
Jaydon Blue, the Texas Longhorns running back, had a few injury concerns during the 2024 season, which impacted his participation in several games. Below is a summary of his known injury history for the 2024 season based on available information:
Week 2 vs. Michigan (September 7, 2024):
Blue suffered an apparent leg/ankle injury in the first quarter during Texas' game against Michigan. He hobbled off the field after a three-yard run and was initially questionable to return. His right ankle was taped, and he appeared to be in pain. However, Blue returned to the game late in the second quarter, indicating the injury was not severe enough to keep him out for the entire game. Before exiting, he had four carries for 14 yards and three catches for six yards.
Week 3 vs. UTSA (September 14, 2024):
Following the Michigan game, Blue was ruled out for Texas' matchup against UTSA due to the lingering effects of his ankle injury. He was seen leaving the Michigan game in a walking boot, suggesting a precautionary approach to his recovery. Texas relied on Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson in his absence.
Week 4 vs. Louisiana-Monroe (September 21, 2024):
Blue was not listed on the injury report for the game against Louisiana-Monroe, and he was seen in pads during pregame warmups, indicating he was likely available to play. This suggests his ankle injury had healed sufficiently for him to return to action.
Week 13 vs. Texas A&M (November 2024):
Blue suffered an apparent arm injury during the second half of the game against Texas A&M. He exited the game and did not return, finishing with four carries for 11 yards. The injury limited his involvement, and players like Jerrick Gibson and Isaiah Bond saw increased carries behind Quintrevion Wisner.
SEC Championship Game vs. Georgia (December 2024):
Despite the arm injury sustained against Texas A&M, Blue was listed as available for the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. However, his participation was limited, as he had only two carries for two yards and caught two of three targets for negative eight yards in the 22-19 overtime loss. This suggests he was not fully healthy but was able to play through the injury.
Summary:
Blue dealt with at least two documented injuries in 2024: an ankle injury early in the season (Week 2) that caused him to miss one game (Week 3) and an arm injury late in the season (Week 13) that limited his role in subsequent games, including the SEC Championship.
Despite these setbacks, Blue played in 15 games during the 2024 season, accumulating 730 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 134 carries, along with 42 receptions for 368 yards and six receiving touchdowns.
His injuries did not appear to be season-ending, but they contributed to a reduced role at times, particularly as Quintrevion Wisner emerged as a primary back and with the anticipated return of CJ Baxter in 2025 influencing Blue’s decision to declare for the 2025 NFL Draft.
-- Some more Dallas rookie backfield hopeful material from minicamp...not anything super interesting, more puff pieces but might be of a little interest to see what they are saying...
YouTube (Mafah): https://www.google.com/gasearch?q=cowboys%20minicamp%202025%20phil%20mafah&source=sh/x/gs/m2/5#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:390d60fb,vid:Utmdq9r8Z0I,st:0
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updates are in progress now that the DRD rankings have been launched. Sunday will be the release of the post-NFL Draft updates/impacts to the top 600. ASAP
**A new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) will begin this upcoming week.
5/3 SAT
(7:19amET)
-- We’re working on a new series for next week...it’s actually a recurring series for many years, our ‘Offseason Moves’ tournament.
A scenario where we go through each team’s free agent gains/losses, trade gains/losses, and NFL Draft (+UDFAs) and judge whether the teams got better or not FOR 2025 ONLY, and by how much, through all their moves...but the twist is we pit two teams against each other in the analysis and advance one as ‘the winner’ and we keep pitting them against each other until we have a final winner of the offseason. *Our last year’s grand champion of offseason moves...the Washington Commanders, and they tied with MIN for the biggest year-over-year win total change in 2024 (+7 wins).
It's a good exercise to really study the team’s rosters/moves for 2025 to try to get better insight designing and doing projections for our draft guide and to find teams to bet on/against this summer.
That series begins next week...and we will have a daily matchup all throughout the month of May.
Last year’s final 8 (the division winners) of our offseason tournament:
WSH, TEN, ATL, NYJ, LAR, LAC, DET, PIT
-- Just a side thought that hit me while doing research yesterday...
It hit me that the Baltimore Ravens didn’t draft a running back. It’s still ‘too old’ (‘they’ said this time last year) Derrick Henry atop the depth chart with no real roster threat.
The backups: Justice Hill signed to a 2-year extension on a backup deal and Keaton Mitchell a year+ removed from his ACL surgery and Rasheen Ali is hanging in there with a roster spot too.
I thought the Ravens might try to add a similar-ish power back like Henry, like an Ollie Gordon, on day three of the draft...but they seem to have no concerns with Henry...nor should we have them for FF.
I’m sure we’ll get the requisite 5th-year in a row of ‘too many miles on the car’ talk/articles out all summer...reports with cool infographics to show how Henry can’t keep this up because ‘look at the last 20+ years of data on RBs, no one has at that age/workload!’
But there is no one like Henry, ever...so 20 years of data doesn’t matter in this era of advanced workouts, nutrition, and stem cells...and Henry is also a workout fiend. He’s uncomparable.
-- I saw this headline yesterday: ESPN’s Brady Henderson reports Seahawks QB Jalen Milroe has been working with private quarterback coach Jordan Palmer for a year and a half.
My first thought was -- I like that for Milroe. Maybe Palmer can get him to ‘plausible’ as a passer to go with his superior running skills?
My second thought was -- Wait...Milroe has been working with him for a year and a half, and he still looked totally lost at the Senior Bowl practices and super erratic at the NFL Combine. I don’t know that it's working.
But it is a hopeful thing for Milroe...Palmer has been really good for many QBs.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*TAKING A DAY OFF TODAY...after weeks of no-days-off with the NFL Draft studies and prep and post event analysis. Gonna go visit one of my sons and eat bad food and do some fun stuff!*
*Special report/thoughts report on the KC backfield out today.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updates are in progress now that the DRD rankings have been launched. Sunday will be the release of the post-NFL Draft updates/impacts to the top 600.
**A new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) will begin this upcoming week.
5/2 FRI
(7:49amET)
-- The final kick for the DRD rankings version 1s is today (v1.5)...as we go from the top 250 ranked prospects to our cruising altitude of the top 300, and with some additional player commentaries posted today as well. That locks us in for the first phase of the DRD rankings. The next update, version 2.0, will be released on Thursday...every Thursday update throughout the summer and into the preseason.
We’re not locking in the top 10-25-50-10-300 and calling it a summer...or year on this. The next three months I will be rechecking some scouting discrepancies -- where we are so far off in grade from where the players got drafted (or not drafted) and investigating some of the deeper sleepers with full scouting reports. Ross and I will spend the summer challenging our own hot narratives and that of the NFL. In addition, we’ll get minicamp reports and tape and intel to point us in directions as well.
Also, the final two DRD mock drafts, post-NFL Draft 1.0 (from the #11-12 spots) will post today. We’ll do another DRD mock series during the summer...and for sure 1-2 more into the preseason activity/scouting.
With the DRD valuation/ranking board set, we turn to integrating it all into our Dynasty top 600 -- earliest tonight/latest Sunday with the updated post-NFL Draft impact rankings.
-- FYI: Three DRD ADPs on the move the past 24-48hrs that have stood out to me...two hot and one cold.
Two guys that are really generating heat with early drafters, bucking the trends of where the FF analysts set their ADPs at right after the NFL Draft...
1) Elijah Arroyo has gone from mid-3rd-round ADP to creeping into the late 2nd-round...going from ADP #27-30 overall to #22-26 range of late. People like the player and the landing spot.
2) TreVeyon Henderson had NFL adoration all over and now he’s getting DRD adoration...I am seeing him go as high as #2 overall, getting past Omarion Hampton as the 2nd RB selection on rare occasions. TreVeyon is going more and more at #3-4 overall, ahead of McMillan and/or Hunter. He’s still a national #5 in ADP, but he is starting to pierce the top 3-4 in DRDs more and more.
The cold ADP...
Kyle Williams has gone from middle 2nd-round DRD ADP to starting to fall to the late 2nds and sometimes into the 3rd-round in DRDs. A lot of pick #22-28 range happening for him lately, when he started this week in the teens/late teens.
Most of the commentary that I’ve seen on Williams has been dismissive and/or FF analysts perplexed why NE didn’t draft a ‘real’ WR.
-- When Brad Holmes is uber-excited...Dan Campbell gets excited...and when both of them are excited about something, it usually translates to something on-the-field. But this (article below) is a pretty lofty claim.
I mean, most GMs are positive and sometimes a little boisterous about their new toys they got for Christmas -- but Holmes is coming in hot here on Isaac TeSlaa...
-- He’s never gonna learn...he’s never gonna change...this human story is gonna end so poorly. It’s sad: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/shedeur-sanders-partied-million-louis-153710297.html
Credit the Browns owner, maybe, for this stroke of business smarts (or just lucky): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/shedeur-sanders-now-has-top-selling-jersey-of-2025-rookie-class#
What will those poor people do, who bought that like $200 jersey...and the guy is cut after the 53-man roster announcement in September?
The Browns may make more money on jersey sales than the pittance they have to pay Shedeur. Nice for the owner’s bottom line.
The news of this rise to #1 in jersey sales for Shedeur means...I officially resign from human society. I wish you all well in your future endeavors. If you need me, I will just be in a shack out in the woods waiting for Will Levis to prove me right...
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- An interesting article (below) about who the Jags were really targeting at RB (RJ Harvey) in the draft. They kinda/sorta settled on Bhayshul Tuten.
But one of the other interesting takeaways was: The Jags were targeting/desiring EDGE Ashton Gillotte, but we’ve learned so were some other heavyweight teams trying to move up for Gillotte...DET and LAR. I feel better about grading Gillotte as our #2 ranked DE in this class...I wasn’t alone with my Gillotte love (full scouting report coming in May).
Here’s the article...
https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/jacksonville-rj-harvey-ucf-liam-coen
I’ve got much more info on all this coming out in a separate report today, because it was too much to put here/needed some spotlight attention/discussion.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*DRD rankings update coming later today.
*DRD Five-Round mock series from each of the top 12 spots runs through Friday.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the post-NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Any new draft revelations or notes as they are acquired.
**A new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) will begin sometime next week -- likely our patented tournament styled analysis. More info right before we debut it. Last year’s winner of this ‘offseason moves tournament’ : Washington. They had a pretty decent impact/turnaround, no? Runner-up was the Titans, so that seemingly negates everything -- but it’s an interesting look back at what they did in the offseason and seeing how chunks of it fell apart with injuries early and then a total collapse of the squad. Our final 8/all the tops for each division...most all had year-over-year improvement AND helped us bet on those improvements for over/under win totals overall gains (Rams, Lions, Commanders to offset Titans losses).
5/1 THU
(7:15amET)
-- DRD update today will take us from the top 200 to the top 250 with a few more commentaries added as we continue to build the list to 300 this week. We will update and add to the rankings every week up to NFL opening day.
The current DRD mock series will add 2-3 more mocks from spots 8-9 and maybe 10. All 12 spots/posts will be published by Friday end for those getting ready to DRD this weekend, which is a monster day for the number of DRDs going off (the weekend after the NFL Draft).
-- A really interesting article, a long one from ESPN on Tommy Mellott as ‘Prospect X’ is attached below along with a quick Mellott update piece from PFT.
I love the ‘Prospect X’ reports. If you don’t know what the ‘Prospect X’ reports are, you’re in for a treat/education. Here...
Those in deeper leagues need to be aware of Mellott for DRDs, etc., and these two outside articles also helps answer the question why we have him ranked with respect in our DRD rankings right from the jump.
All this material made me ask Grok: Who the past ‘Prospect Xs’ were, and here’s the history I received:
The term "Prospect X" refers to a recurring feature by writer Kalyn Kahler, who profiles a mystery NFL draft prospect each year, revealing their identity after the draft. Here’s the breakdown for 2024, 2023, and 2022 based on available information:
2024 Prospect X: Levi Drake Rodriguez, a defensive tackle from Texas A&M Commerce, was revealed as Prospect X for the 2024 NFL Draft. He was selected by the Minnesota Vikings with their last draft pick. Rodriguez’s journey included playing at Southwestern Assemblies of God University (NAIA) before transferring, and his pro day drew attention from multiple teams despite his under-the-radar status.
2023 Prospect X: David Durden, a wide receiver from the University of West Florida (Division II), was identified as Prospect X for the 2023 NFL Draft. Durden signed with the Dallas Cowboys as an undrafted free agent. His story highlighted his small-town roots in Midville, Georgia, and his college career, which included a transfer from Mercer College’s FCS program.
2022 Prospect X: Devin Harper, a linebacker, was the 2022 Prospect X. He was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the sixth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Harper’s selection continued the trend of Prospect X players often being late-round picks or undrafted free agents with unique backstories.
2021 Prospect X: Christian Elliss, a linebacker from Idaho, was the 2021 Prospect X. He went undrafted but signed with the Minnesota Vikings as a free agent. Elliss bounced around, eventually landing with the Philadelphia Eagles. He has played in 20 games over four seasons (2021–2024), recording 48 tackles, primarily on special teams. His journey included playing a spring FCS season during the draft process due to the pandemic, highlighting his underdog status from a small school.
2020 Prospect X: Matt Cole, a wide receiver from Division II McKendree University, was the 2020 Prospect X. Cole signed as an undrafted free agent with the Miami Dolphins. He appeared in two NFL games—one with the San Francisco 49ers in 2020 and one with the Carolina Panthers in 2021—before being cut by the Washington Commanders in 2022. His career has been marked by stints with seven organizations, reflecting the challenges faced by small-school prospects.
2019 Prospect X: Drew Forbes, an offensive lineman from Southeast Missouri State, was the 2019 Prospect X. He was selected by the Cleveland Browns in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Forbes, a left tackle in college, was a small-school product with no combine or all-star game invite. His pro day performance and visits with teams like the Browns, Cardinals, and Jets helped him get noticed. He played in two games for the Browns in 2019 but has since bounced around, most recently signing with the Birmingham Stallions of the UFL in 2025.
-- A quick note about our FFM Betting Discord, an access included with Betting subscription...
A special thank you to the folks who are helping out those in DRDs this week (and beyond) by weight in on people’s questions/dilemmas on some things AND for posting results of their DRDs that have occurred. So very helpful to have real world info with any commentary Dyn-Owners have observed/encountered as they went through a real DRD.
FFM Betting Discord members -- a ‘DRD Intel and Questions’ thread/area has been created/opened up specifically for anyone who wants to contribute info or has questions.
You don’t have to be into or participating in football betting to be a subscriber to our ‘Betting’, although that’s a main feature. The community Discord group is a private ‘club’ for people to discuss all the football matters and share info/intel with like-minded people and get their insights and see their questions/dilemmas/trades, etc., they’re working through.
If you’ve never been on Discord before...it’s a massive, stable, secure site all the kids use for communications...that my kids kept cajoling me to use, but I was too ‘I don’t know about that newfangled stuff’ to adopt, but then I did and kicked myself on how simple it was to join various communities for special topics (like a stock market group, etc.) and how easy it was to set up for FFMers to use for a private club as well that works wonderfully on your phone or computer, etc.
More info on this here:
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- My question to Grok yesterday, for research, that you might find interesting/informative...
Q: tell me about Xavier Worthy's 2025 offseason troubles and what the suspension chances are?
A: Xavier Worthy, a wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs, faced significant off-field issues during the 2025 offseason, primarily stemming from a domestic violence allegation. On March 7, 2025, Worthy was arrested in Williamson County, Texas, on a felony charge of assault against a family or household member by impeding their breathing or circulation, a third-degree felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine. The arrest followed an accusation by his ex-fiancée, Tia Jones, who claimed Worthy attacked her.
Worthy’s attorneys quickly responded, asserting that the accuser had been asked to leave Worthy’s residence after evidence of her infidelity was uncovered by a private investigator. They claimed she had made “extortive efforts” and had damaged property, scratched Worthy’s face, and pulled out his hair, supported by photographic evidence. Worthy chose not to press charges against her at the time. By March 8, 2025, the Williamson County District Attorney’s office declined to press charges pending further investigation, and Worthy was released from jail. The DA’s office noted it would continue to evaluate the case and could present it to a grand jury if new evidence emerged.
Despite the charges being dismissed, Worthy’s legal troubles escalated. He filed a lawsuit against Jones, alleging abuse, destruction of property, civil theft, and extortion, seeking $250,000 to $1 million in damages. Jones, in turn, was granted a protective order against Worthy. These developments have kept the situation unresolved and in the public eye.
Suspension Chances
The NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy allows for suspensions even without criminal charges if the league finds credible evidence of a violation. Worthy’s case, though dismissed, remains under scrutiny due to the serious nature of the allegations and the ongoing legal disputes. Several factors influence his suspension risk:
NFL Precedent: The Chiefs have a history of players facing suspensions for off-field issues. Rashee Rice, another Chiefs wide receiver, is expected to face a multi-game suspension in 2025 for his role in a high-speed car crash in 2024, despite no conviction at the time. Past Chiefs players like Tyreek Hill and Justyn Ross have also faced league discipline for domestic violence or legal issues, suggesting the NFL may act regardless of legal outcomes.
Ongoing Investigation: The Williamson County DA’s office has not closed the case, leaving open the possibility of future charges. The NFL often waits for legal processes to conclude but may impose discipline based on its own investigation, as seen in Rice’s case.
Contract Implications: Reports indicate that a suspension could void the $6 million in guaranteed money in Worthy’s rookie contract, which runs through 2027. This precedent was set with Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, whose contract guarantees were voided after a three-game suspension. While the Chiefs have not indicated plans to release Worthy, the financial stakes add pressure.
Public and Team Context: The Chiefs have faced criticism for tolerating off-field issues, with Worthy’s arrest coming less than a year after Rice’s legal troubles. The team issued a statement saying they were “aware and gathering information” but have not publicly commented further. The NFL also confirmed it was in contact with the Chiefs regarding the matter.
Worthy’s Importance to the Team: Worthy had a promising rookie season, with 59 receptions for 638 yards, six receiving touchdowns, and three rushing touchdowns, plus a standout playoff performance (19 receptions for 287 yards). With Rice likely suspended and only Worthy and Rice under contract as significant receivers from 2024, the Chiefs’ thin receiver room could influence their stance, though the NFL’s decision is independent.
Likelihood of Suspension
While no charges were filed, the NFL’s history of suspending players for domestic violence allegations, even without convictions, suggests Worthy faces a moderate to high risk of discipline. Posts on X and web reports speculate a “decent length” suspension, especially given the Chiefs’ recurring issues with receivers. However, the dismissed charges and Worthy’s counter-lawsuit may mitigate the length or likelihood of a suspension. If suspended, a range of 2–6 games is plausible, based on precedents like Rice’s expected multi-game ban. The NFL’s investigation and any new evidence from the DA will be critical.
Worthy’s public response has been limited, but he has engaged positively with fans and teammates, such as sharing support for teammate Hollywood Brown’s contract extension. This suggests he is attempting to move forward, but the unresolved legal and league scrutiny keeps his status uncertain.
For the latest updates, monitoring NFL announcements and the Williamson County DA’s actions will be key, as the case could still evolve.
RC Comment on Worthy: I’m just not sure this issue is headed to anything more than maybe a game suspension, if that. With no charges filed, etc., the case is not strong, at this point, and these things usually drag out for 2 years and the ‘victim’ ends up recanting in some way and usually gets a monetary sum to do so. I don’t think Worthy will be suspended this season, but it’s on the table that he does...and the situation is fluid, so anything could happen/be discovered as we go.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*DRD rankings update coming later today.
*DRD Five-Round mock series from each of the top 12 spots runs through Friday.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the post-NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Any new draft revelations or notes as they are acquired.
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4/30 WED
(7:33amET)
-- The DRD rankings went up to the top 150 yesterday. We’re headed to the top 200 today/tonight with more commentaries added.
Also, check out my video monologue on the 1st-round of the DRD...the strategies and complexities.
The Mock DRD series rolls on with #6-7-8 spots publishing today.
-- The early jersey sales are out, and to no surprise -- Travis Hunter is leading the way out of the gates...well ahead of #2 Cam Ward, and inexplicably #3 Shedeur Sanders.
As I said in my trade analysis -- part of the genius of the Hunter deal for Jacksonville was how much money they would recoup in jersey sales, and it’s working like a charm so far.
The surprising name not in the top 10? No Omarion Hampton. Odd.
-- Transaction item from yesterday: Commanders signed K Matt Gay, formerly of the Colts, to a one-year contract worth $4.25 million.
Three things from this...
1) Zane Gonzalez was then released, FYI.
2) Austin Siebert was really good last year for Washington...he was an accidental starter, and he was FF-hot for a good stretch of the season -- the #1 PPG kicker in FF 2024 (in 9 games played). He had a heavy amount of opportunities, and he made them.
Siebert is currently a free agent. He should land with some team soon.
3) Matt Gay is a good kicker...in theory, he leaps into the Siebert role from 2024...which was a terrific thing last year with a really good offense. A $4.25M contract shows the respect Gay has in the NFL, this coming off a nice contract to go to Indy a few years ago.
-- You may be interested in the results of the question I posed to Grok...
Q: What is the latest on Chris Godwin's injury and projected return to action in the NFL in 2025.
A: Latest Update on Chris Godwin's Injury and Projected Return in 2025
Injury Overview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated left ankle during Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season in a game against the Baltimore Ravens on October 21, 2024. The injury occurred late in the fourth quarter on a 21-yard reception when he was tackled by Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith. Godwin underwent surgery shortly after to repair the dislocated ankle, which was described as a severe injury, comparable to Dak Prescott’s 2020 high ankle fracture/dislocation.
Recovery Progress:
- Initial Prognosis: Immediately following the injury, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles indicated Godwin would likely miss the remainder of the 2024 regular season, with a slim possibility of returning for a deep playoff run. Godwin himself described a playoff return as the “best-case scenario” but emphasized a day-by-day approach to rehabilitation.
- Current Status: As of April 2025, Godwin’s recovery is reported to be “still on track” for the 2025 NFL season, with expectations that he will be ready for Week 1 (early September 2025). NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported in October 2024 that Godwin is expected to make a full recovery for the 2025 season, and this sentiment was echoed by Buccaneers GM Jason Licht in April 2025.
- Contract Context: Despite the injury, the Buccaneers signed Godwin to a three-year, $66 million contract in March 2025, with $44 million guaranteed, signaling confidence in his recovery. This decision came after Godwin hit free agency, and he reportedly turned down a larger offer from the New England Patriots to stay with Tampa Bay.
Projected Return:
- Timeline: Godwin is aiming to be fully healthy by Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season (early September 2025). The recovery timeline for a dislocated ankle is generally shorter than for his previous 2021 ACL/MCL tear, with sources indicating he is progressing well without setbacks.
- Playoff Return in 2024 Season: Hopes for a 2024 playoff return were dashed, as Bowles confirmed in January 2025 that Godwin would not play, regardless of the Buccaneers’ playoff run. This was consistent with reports that prioritized a full recovery for 2025 over rushing back.
- Uncertainty: While the outlook is positive, some X posts express caution, noting Godwin’s injury history (2021 ACL/MCL tear and 2024 ankle dislocation) and uncertainty about when he will return to 100% performance. One post speculated he might not be fully ready until Week 6 of 2025, though this is not corroborated by official reports.
Impact and Context:
- 2024 Performance: Before the injury, Godwin was on pace for a career-best season, leading the NFL with 50 receptions, 576 yards, and five touchdowns through seven games. He was a key part of the Buccaneers’ offense, thriving in the slot under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
- Team Strategy: The Buccaneers drafted Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka in the first round (19th overall) of the 2025 NFL Draft, partly as a contingency for Godwin’s recovery. GM Jason Licht clarified that Egbuka’s selection was not due to concerns about Godwin’s rehab but provides “comfort” as a backup plan.
- Fan and Analyst Sentiment: Posts on X reflect optimism about Godwin’s return but highlight concerns about his injury history and the physical toll on his knee and ankle. Some fans see the Egbuka pick as a hedge against potential setbacks, while others believe Godwin’s new contract reflects trust in his ability to return to form.
Conclusion: Chris Godwin is on track to return for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season following a dislocated left ankle suffered in October 2024. His recovery is progressing as expected, with no reported setbacks, and the Buccaneers’ investment in a new contract underscores confidence in his full recovery. While a 2024 playoff return was ruled out, all indications point to Godwin being ready to contribute in September 2025, though some uncertainty remains about his immediate return to peak performance due to his injury history. For the latest updates, monitoring NFL.com or the Buccaneers’ official site is recommended as the season approaches.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*DRD rankings update coming later today.
*DRD Five-Round mock series from each of the top 12 spots, begins today and runs through Thursday.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the post-NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Any new draft revelations or notes as they are acquired.
---------------------------------
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4/29 TUE
(7:55amET)
-- The DRD rankings have expanded to the top 100 yesterday. We go to the top 150 today with more commentaries added.
And I have a DRD strategy discussion coming out today (hopefully) as well. Worst case it will be out Wednesday, but all plans are for today.
-- A late add to my schedule today...
A surprise appearance on the Podfather’s podcast to talk about the NFL Draft a little bit.
Scheduled for 10amET start. Not sure if it is live or a recording session. It would be on his PlayerProfiler YouTube and/or Twitter/X.
A couple football tidbits I had from yesterday...
-- Midday, I saw that the Browns had met with Diontae Johnson. When I saw that, I thought...’I know the Browns are incredibly stupid, but even they can’t be that stupid! Why do they even need a guy like that for their team and especially for their locker room?’
I was sure they wouldn’t sign him.
A few hours later, news broke...they signed him.
-- The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports that the Dolphins “have been in contact” with free agent CB Rasul Douglas.
Miami drafted a CB that I really like, Jason Marshall out of Florida. They also got a nice UDFA CB in B.J. Adams to look at. They should sign Douglas to go with the young guys, if the price is right for like a one-year deal.
Why all the activity at CB?
Jalen Ramsey is as good as gone...the GM even reiterated that yesterday.
Their current/incumbent (pre-Draft) listed other starting CB...Storm Duck.
-- Word is getting louder that the Bears are about to sign Nick Chubb.
Here’s more detail/things to think about, from me, having to do with this Bears RB situation, potentially: 2025 REWIND: Reviewing the 2024 tape of a Sweet Pre-Free Agency Dynasty ‘Buy Low’ to Consider
If/when the Bears sign Chubb, we’ll discuss the impact to Swift-Roschon-Monangai.
I just continue to believe Swift is done with the Bears/Ben Johnson (Johnson was on the Lions staff that ditched/dumped Swift a few years ago), but in the draft the Bears didn’t do/execute any radical plan for new RBs, aside from a 6th-round grab of Monangai. Chubb would be the puzzle piece that would start the anti-Swift ball rolling...if that’s what is going to happen.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*DRD rankings update coming later today.
*DRD Five-Round mock series from each of the top 12 spots, begins today and runs through Thursday.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the post-NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Any new draft revelations or notes as they are acquired.
---------------------------------
FastDraft filled up their original all-Rookie Best Ball contest/draft, but they have opened up another contest.
Also, note if you are signing up for the first time -- we have a matching funds Promo Code to boost. All that info below...
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
4/28 MON
(6:34amET)
-- The Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings v1.0 are out...posted later last night.
The top 50 for the debut. We’re aiming for the top 100 tonight with more player commentaries added.
Also, I will have a report-out on how I feel about the unique top of the DRD...strategies and complexities therein.
Today, we will start a 4-day series (M-T-W-Th) doing a five round DRD mock draft from each of the 12 draft spots, posting 3 per day.
Many are DRD-ing this weekend, so it’s DRD prep week on FFM.
Couple thoughts going through football things yesterday...
-- Tetairoa McMillan #8 to the Panthers...a WR that former Carolina WR and current Carolina TV analyst and YouTube WR scout Steve Smith doesn’t like and is now mocking the pick a bit on social media. From what I can tell, Smith thinks McMillan ‘checked out’ of the Colorado game, in his tape watching, because the game wasn’t ‘going his way’...and that means McMillan is a problem prospect.
If you saw some of the work T-Mac put in that game, getting open and either not getting the ball or getting it thrown to nowhere where he could catch it...yeah, he was probably frustrated. I don’t think he just quit on the game, and thus he’s now labeled ‘a quitter’, which then gets translated into ‘not a hard worker’, from this one moment. His team got their butts whooped right away and McMillan was battling Travis Hunter and McMillan was getting held all over by Hunter, and T-Mac not getting the penalty calls...and then when he was open the passes were many times thrown nowhere near him...so, I think any frustration from that game is just that not cause for an overarching character flaw claim.
My thing on the media’s McMillan criticism is...if he truly is ‘lazy’ and can’t separate, but was still that great in college with a crappy QB -- imagine how he’ll do if he decides to play hard in the pros with a better QB (and Bryce is actually an upgrade for TMM)?
But the thing is, McMillan CAN separate...he has/had one of the top separation metrics in all of college football (among WRs) in the past 2 years…and he is not lazy...he’s just better than everyone, and super smooth so he makes it look easy.
But my main point on this was intended to be -- it was nice to see the Panthers making a pick right in the face of Steve Smith’s constant yapping against McMillan. Good to see the owner wasn’t swayed by Smith like he has been in the past. This is Dan Morgan’s and Dave Canales’s team now.
-- Just a stray thought...
If Travis Hunter does play both ways AND succeeds at both. How much of a contract does he ask for going into year four? Will he command the most money in the NFL?
You know he’s not gonna play through year 4 without a real deal, if he is a two-way star...and there is no way he’s going on a ‘franchise tag’ at any point (if he is that star). At what price would he even be tagged at? You’d really have to add the tag WR cost + tag CB cost together and give him that, no?
In 2025, the combined WR+CB tag would have been = $43.9M.
A tagged QB would have been $40.2M, so not far off his two-way value.
-- Sunday afternoon news broke that: LB Dre Greenlaw could “miss a substantial portion” of the 2025 NFL season after suffering a torn quad during a workout. And that was a seeming huge hit to the Broncos defensive plan for 2025. They had such a great free agent period and were set to be ‘THAT’ defense...but they took a hit/setback here.
However, late Sunday reports came in that I woke up to -- Greenlaw did not tear his quad, he merely strained it and he will miss about 2-months, that’s all.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*DRD top 100 update coming later today.
*DRD Five-Round mock series from each of the top 12 spots, begins today and runs through Thursday.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the post-NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Any new draft revelations or notes as they are acquired.
---------------------------------
FastDraft filled up their original all-Rookie Best Ball contest/draft, but they have opened up another contest.
Also, note if you are signing up for the first time -- we have a matching funds Promo Code to boost. All that info below...
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
