RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 3/31-4/6

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 06 April 2025

RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

SUN 4/6

(8:11amET)

-- An excerpt from the Shedeur Sanders Pro Day Media Interview – April 4, 2025 (that I got from Grok 3)

Reporter: Where are you planning to be on draft night, and what can we expect from you when your name is called?

Shedeur Sanders: I’m gonna be at home with my family. I’ll be wearing too many diamonds on my big night—I’m definitely gonna make a fashion statement. As for how I’ll react, I don’t know. I don’t really think about all that stuff. There’s too many small things in the way. We’ll see when the moment comes—maybe there’ll be tears, maybe not. It depends on where I go and how I feel about the team that picks me.

RC Note: He really cannot help himself...

Every time Shedeur gets in front of a microphone, he starts out stiff and controlled/subdued (like he’s telling himself to contain himself in an inner monologue) but the more he talks, the more the arrogant, self-centered Shedeur leaks/floods out. He cannot hide who he is for long.

And this is what people/execs who meet him are picking up on/criticizing, as anyone would do interviewing anyone for a job with them/their organization. Deion Sanders calls it ‘spreading lies about Shedeur’, but it’s not lying...it’s an opinion, an assessment. Deion is so far up his kid’s ass that he thinks any criticism is not possible/is a lie, because his kid is perfect...so, by his deductive reasoning...everyone is lying about his angel.

I was also listening to parts of Shedeur’s post-Pro Day interview at the press room -- and seeing Shedeur getting excited about how he’s going to greatly improve a team’s social media stature because *something to the effect of* ‘because I’m such a big influencer and presence for people’ (Shedeur proclaimed about himself).

Which got me thinking...do you think an NFL team is gonna want to have Shedeur doing his podcast, etc., during the season or offseason...running off at the mouth about things? They’re already not happy with Aaron Rodgers doing this with Pat McAfee -- but Rodgers handles interviews much better...and is much smarter/quicker on the draw than Shedeur. Who knows what Shedeur would say or claim on a podcast? Things that could divide the locker room or aggravate the coaches?

I think the social media stuff...stuff that Shedeur thinks is to his advantage...I think it is to his disadvantage trying to get drafted highly into the NFL. But it’s another reason for teams to ‘be concerned’.

Also, a major disadvantage for Shedeur -- Deion Sanders...in front of live microphones all the time. As much as I can’t stand listening to Shedeur speak...Deion is insufferable. During his part of the Pro Day presser, he said something to the effect of...’because I was so great in the college and the pros, my kids are getting unfairly targeted by the media’.

What?

An advantage Shedeur does have in getting drafted highly is -- as completely ignorant and arrogant as he is, and as hovering and insufferable as Deion is when it comes to his kids (he’s interesting otherwise, but melts down about his family)...NFL execs can be 10x more stupid and terrible at their jobs and won’t think of/seriously consider any of the problems they are inviting with Shedeur and draft him gleefully. It only takes one of the stupid to make their move...

Why so much Shedeur commentary from me this offseason? Because I find it so fascinating from so many angles, but one of the reasons is (besides a slow football news weekend) -- this is gonna be THE story of the NFL Draft in a few weeks. We will ALL be watching the draft, but some will stop watching the draft as intently only when Shedeur gets drafted...and if he falls and falls, people will stay tuned in for the drama...as we all listen along as the football protectors/analysts cover for him harder and harder if/as he falls. I can still remember the emotion of the draft where Aaron Rodgers fell and fell, pick by pick.

The NFL, or the TV networks, for ratings purposes, probably would LOVE for Shedeur for fall...because so many will stay tuned past pick #5-10 in this fairly boring draft (for the masses) if Shedeur is in drama. If he gets picked top 3...many will drift away from watching the draft after pick #5 or so, is what naturally happens.

I would like to see Shedeur fall in the draft, because I think he deserves to fall...but I also want to see the drama -- I want to see if they have cameras at the Sanders compound and I want to see what they say/how they act if a radical fall occurs. I want to be that fly on the wall. If Shedeur goes #2 to CLE, I’m going to be so furious that this story goes away so early in the night. And that seems like I’m being mean...but I think he deserves to fall in the draft but have no idea if he will -- I’m on the outside fringe on this issue, thinking Shedeur is falling to late 1st-round or into the 2nd-round. I want to be proven ‘right’ on my research and theory AND...I do want to eat my popcorn and watch the fireworks.

I also think the best thing for Shedeur’s career...for his maturity sake...if he’s ever gonna become not a spoiled, arrogant Sanders-baby...is for him to get knocked off his high horse and get humbled/rejected into the second round. If you put millions of dollars into that kid’s pocket right away, with his extravagant spending...and give him the attention of a top 3 pick -- we will see him on reality shows in 20-30 years, a sad shell of himself...they’ll do documentaries on how he ‘lost it all’ (his money).

The most dramatic, entertaining thing in this entire draft is gonna be...where Shedeur goes/how far (or not) he falls. The TV show is gonna be built around it.

Looking out at the QB options that could go in front of Shedeur...

I think Jaxson Dart has a good chance to go ahead of Shedeur, which I don’t agree with as a scout...but Dart has NFL heat, if Shedeur falls.

I think Jalen Milroe may be a shock option to get drafted ahead of Shedeur, if Sanders really falls. A few teams love Milroe’s smarts and athleticism...and they’ll assume they can teach him how to be a QB...like they taught Justin Fields and Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson...no problem, works like a charm every time. Milroe is everything Shedeur is not in life and on a football field...like a 180 degree opposite creation.

Tyler Shough is the deep sleeper, gaining fast, to go off as the 2nd QB in the draft...but that would be a seismic shock if it happened. I can’t believe it would...but it should/Shough.

-- Yesterday we looked at an IPP TE that the Chargers just signed, with that there’s another IPP TE prospect I was watching do some training work...and he may be even more interesting...or as interesting as Jordan Petaia from yesterday.

From Grok 3.0:

Nathaniel Salmon, a New Zealand basketballer transitioning to American football through the NFL’s International Player Pathway (IPP) program, participated in the IPP Pro Day at the University of South Florida on March 26, 2025. After completing a 10-week training program at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, Salmon, who is projected as a tight end, showcased his athletic potential in front of NFL scouts.

At the IPP Pro Day, Salmon recorded a 40-yard dash time of 4.65 seconds. This is a respectable time for a tight end, especially for someone new to the sport, though it’s slightly slower than the average for NFL tight ends at the Combine, which typically hovers around 4.7 seconds for the position, with top performers like Kyle Pitts running a 4.44 in 2021. Salmon also posted a 38-inch vertical jump, which is impressive and above the average for tight ends (around 33 inches historically at the Combine). This vertical jump highlights his explosiveness, a trait likely honed from his basketball background where he played for teams like the Manawatu Jets and North Gold Coast Seahawks. His broad jump was measured at 9 feet 10 inches, further demonstrating his lower-body power and athleticism.

Salmon’s physical profile at the Pro Day was listed at 6’5” and 245 pounds, giving him a prototypical tight end frame. NFL consultant Scott Pioli noted Salmon’s “plus movement skills and hand-eye coordination,” suggesting his basketball-honed agility and catching ability could translate well to the tight end position. However, specific times for other drills, such as the three-cone drill or shuttle run, were not widely reported. Given his lack of football experience—he admitted to never watching an NFL game before joining the program—his performance was seen as a promising starting point, though he’ll need significant development in football-specific skills like route-running and blocking.

Salmon’s workout numbers, combined with his size and athletic background, make him an intriguing developmental prospect, though he remains a raw talent in the context of American football.

*RC NOTE = Salmon also played Rugby recently, trying his hand at it as well along with his foreign basketball past. He is unsigned as of yet, however. He’ll likely be signed before the draft.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish tonight or Monday midday.

*Combine re-grade position group: WR

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated 4/5, next update later this week.

*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades (1.0 versions) will continue to post over the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up into the NFL Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

====================================

***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

And note... The ‘all rookies’ tournament/prize contest ‘Origins’ closes April 24th...it’s a pre-Draft contest/battle of rookie scouting skills, so a great opportunity to try and take advantage using your rookie research.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

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SAT 4/5

(7:30amET)

-- I’m gonna let Grok 3.0 do some work here...a prospect we are loading into the 2025 TE prospect grade’s update 2.0 this weekend, but also putting into our Dynasty top 600 rankings since he is already with a team...

Jordan Petaia is an International Pathways Prospect/Australian Rugby star who worked out in March for the NFL. He was just signed by the Chargers.

Who is Jordan Petaia?

Grok 3.0 says...

Jordan Petaia, a former Australian rugby star transitioning to American football through the NFL’s International Player Pathway (IPP) program, showcased his athletic abilities at the IPP Pro Day held at the University of South Florida on March 26, 2025. After training for 10 weeks at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, Petaia, who signed with the Los Angeles Chargers as a tight end, recorded impressive workout numbers that highlighted his potential for the NFL.

At the IPP Pro Day, Petaia ran the 40-yard dash in 4.58 seconds, a solid time for a tight end, especially considering his 6’3”, 226-pound frame. This speed aligns with his rugby background, where he was known for his explosiveness as a utility back for the Queensland Reds and the Wallabies. He also posted a 40.5-inch vertical jump, an exceptional mark that demonstrates his lower-body power and ability to high-point passes, a critical skill for an NFL tight end. Additionally, his Relative Athletic Score (RAS) was reported as 8.85 out of 10, ranking him 242 out of 2,100 running backs from 1987 to 2025, though this metric seems mislabeled since he’s transitioning as a tight end, not a running back. The RAS still reflects his overall athleticism, likely factoring in his speed, jump, and other drills like the broad jump or shuttle, though those specific numbers weren’t widely reported.

Petaia’s workout times are particularly notable given his rugby roots and limited football experience. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash is competitive for a tight end—top NFL tight ends like Kyle Pitts ran a 4.44 at his 2021 Pro Day, but the average for the position is closer to 4.7 seconds. The 40.5-inch vertical is elite, as the average for tight ends at the NFL Combine is around 33 inches, per historical Combine data. These numbers, combined with his rugby-honed physicality, likely contributed to the Chargers’ decision to sign him on April 2, 2025, as part of the IPP Class of 2025. However, his transition will hinge on adapting his raw athleticism to the technical demands of the tight end position, especially in route-running and blocking.

Back to RC: I watched some of Petaia’s work in rugby...you could tell he was a talent, even for someone who doesn’t know much at all about rugby. Athletic and looked better than most of the players out there...he looks more like someone built for the NFL more than Louis Rees-Zammit, last year’s Rugby-to-NFL sensation.

Petaia is 6’3”/226...so more of a ‘move’ TE, H-back, possible fullback type of player unless he adds 10+ pounds of muscle for real TE size. So difficult to make this transition, but the Chargers are getting the look-see.

-- Possibly the most ridiculous thing that I’ve seen in the draft analysis world so far, and that’s quite an achievement:

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/saints/2025/04/03/jaxson-dart-josh-allen-comparison-nfl-draft-saints-qb-news/82745221007/#

-- *FFM App notification system is updated and notifications are back. See bottom of this day's notes for how to utilize the FFM App for notifications to your devices.

-- A side note on our recent TV Series musings... I watched two TV Shows in the background of my data inputs and site audits, etc., in the past couple weeks. Most of my current TV series watching is kinda indirect...listening to dialogue and looking over at it when I can/needed. I don’t have time for a sit back, relax, and put a full focus on shows -- so my judgements can be unfair potentially.

My two shows to discuss are some suggestions from subscribers in the spirit of the TV Series tourney we just finished...

1) Netflix ‘The Gentlemen’...the TV show, not the movie. An 8-episode series that I just finished...and it ended leaving the door open to a Season 2.

I don’t want to try to describe it/giveaway much, but here’s the unrated (language and blood alert) trailer for the series from March 2024: https://youtu.be/wyEOwHrpZH4?si=sUBI174xe8Y3Z8zJ

I enjoyed it. A bit of a choppy start but entertaining enough early on...but it built its way to a finale that makes the original episodes, characters we meet, all necessary/logical.

It’s not a top 16 contender for me, but I did enjoy it, and it got better as it went...to nice season 1 end.

2) I started the Apple TV+ series ‘The Studio’...a Seth Rogen production/starring role. I really enjoyed this...it’s three episodes into its run, and new one’s drop every Wednesday.

This one is not for everyone, but it is very clever with some brilliant film work/production -- a lot of one-shot takes for the actors...long scenes on the move, lots of moving parts happening and there is no ‘cut’/edit of it strung together...it’s a lot of one take efforts, which is wild to watch the actors thrive in their craft with the dialogue and acting.

I was surprised how much I enjoyed (so far) The Studio. Trailer: https://youtu.be/EIQuE7JGXU8?si=-UzgaFptTHKmTvc9

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be today. IDP top 500+ has been posted.

====================================

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

FRI 4/4

(7:08amET)

Random Football Notes...

-- The ‘Tush Push’ ban has been put off for another vote/debate for a few weeks, but the voting is getting closer and closer to being banned. If it does get banned...it has to FF-affect Jalen Hurts’ value in some way...maybe? Will he get those 1-yard TD runs anyway because of his size/power at QB?

I thought the ‘Tush Push’ ban talk was another year of noise, but nothing serious...but now it looks like this is getting a lot closer to being banned than I ever thought. I think it may survive this season but maybe gets banned/voted out next season...but I wouldn’t be shocked if it gets banned for 2025 either.

-- All signs point to Kirk Cousins heading to Cleveland after/during the draft. All the ‘obvious’ teams needing a QB are making other plans/running away from Shedeur Sanders...as I predicted they would (or were already) months ago.

Little by little, NFL upper management’s real thoughts are leaking out... the stories are leaking more and more that people don’t like Shedeur’s attitude (and that should be a ‘given’ now, not a theory)...but NOW we’re getting the first signs of people hinting that teams don’t want Deion over their shoulder (but I know this has been a concern for months among NFL upper management).

From the attached report (below):

However, one of the most intriguing narratives surrounding Shedeur is Coach Prime’s potential influence on his professional career. One report suggests that some teams, including the New York Giants, are wary of the dynamic between father and son. Deion’s outspoken personality and hands-on coaching style have been central to Shedeur’s development, but NFL teams may question whether this influence will extend beyond college.

According to the New York Post's Paul Schwartz, internal sources have voiced concerns about the constant media attention surrounding Deion and Shedeur, as well as the possibility that Deion could publicly challenge a team’s handling of his son.

“There is no doubt the Giants are intrigued with Shedeur Sanders,” Schwartz wrote. "There is a concern that Shedeur has been coached by his father since high school, and the Giants saw firsthand the video-centric, everything-gets-documented ecosystem created at Colorado and the spotlight that both father and son seem to crave.”

https://www.si.com/college/colorado/football/giants-reportedly-have-concerns-with-shedeur-sanders-and-the-shadow-of-prime

Scouts can say what they want about Shedeur’s abilities...NFL analysts have a huge lack of business sense, except they know they keep their jobs not stirring pots as well. So all the early dismissal of the Shedeur and Deion issues into the equation -- it didn’t matter. It’s what the decision makers were thinking -- Head Coaches, GMs, and Owners were not gonna like Shedeur when they got to know him...their scouts would say ‘C’ talent...and none of them would want to have to deal with Deion Sanders, who gets more embarrassing with his comments in the media every week this draft season goes on.

We began the process with Deion saying he would help advise/choose where Shedeur was going...then he backpedaled on that when they sensed the market was going cold...then Deion was calling out/calling up the people who were ‘spreading lies’ about Shedeur...now Deion is doing more damage control to try to ensure Shedeur even goes in the 1st-round.

There’s a lot of money (Shedeur has already been spending) that is about to be lost if/when Shedeur falls from top 3 (they thought) to late 1st...to 2nd-round.

And we know the Sanders kids have been raised humbly and financially prudent: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2025/04/01/shilo-sanders-mercedes-alleged-default-bankruptcy-deion-colorado/82767264007/#

This was the easiest prediction of something that was gonna happen that I may have ever made...that Shedeur’s personality + Deion’s presence would repel most/all NFL upper management. No coach or GM in their right mind would invite this circus to their town. No owner is gonna meet with Shedeur and ‘fall in love’ a la David Tepper and Bryce Young. Bryce Young is a great young man, easy to like. Shedeur is not at all likeable.

I thought Dallas/Jerry might be a Shedeur savior, bailing out Deion -- but they got wise too...trading for Joe Milton instead. No reason for them to trade back into the last 1st-round to spare Deion now. Jerry doesn’t seem to want to be in the Deion/Shedeur business from ‘passing’ on him for the head coach opening...and now the Milton deal clinches it/all but closes the door.

Cleveland is ‘out’ if/with Cousins. NYG is ‘out’ with Russ/Winston. Dallas is now out with Milton.

To me, it’s down to the Saints now...and they’re just stupid enough to do it. But if they don’t...how far will Shedeur fall? I am thinking if the Saints ‘pass’, Shedeur is definitely headed into the second round...or maybe even further. Shedeur is toxic on his own merits and more toxic because of his dad. Mike Tomlin may be the one that saves the day, in the end...and that be the best place Shedeur could go to and for Deion to interfere with the head coach (as much).

-- Iowa TD we like(d) Luke Lachey...we got his official Pro Day results...4.86 40-time. Not good.

The Combine TE prospects we couldn’t put a real, early grade on prior (for lack of data)...we got their data now, Gadsen-Lachey, Kuithre (not doing anything at pro Day either). The TE grades update will be out over the weekend.

A deeper dive on Lachey may happen pre-Draft but possibly is pushed off to after the draft. To many other more intriguing prospects to dig into ahead of Lachey...in general, and at the TE position.

-- *FFM App notification system is being updated/worked on this week, so pop-up notifications are down/hit & miss. You can see when we post something on the App still, by checking it via: See the Upper Left Menu (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click Profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts/notifications we’ve ever sent in chronological order.

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

(same intro) OK, here we go...my personal TV series March Madness (16 teams/shows). I’m gonna pit two of these shows against each other every day until we get down to the final one left standing that will lay claim to BEST TV SERIES I’VE EVER WATCHED!

What am I basing my ‘choices’/the winners on? Lots of things...how good the show was/how good I remember it (so recency bias is gonna play a factor, even if I don’t want it to)...the acting, the writing/dialogue...the way it was filmed...would I watch it again and enjoy it just the same or maybe even more (and on some of them I have watched episodes or the series again in recent years).

--------------------

Well, here we are at the finals...Better Call Saul vs. This Is Us.

Just a moment to give a nod to the TV Series that I thought (in the beginning) could/would win this... I initially thought Severance would probably win this whole thing, starting this tourney (time wise) coming off their brilliant Season 2 finale...but I couldn’t pull the trigger fully naming them the best/top series for me -- a lot of it considering we have to see where this series is gonna go/finish up. It may be my #1, in due time...but not right now. It’s unfair, in a way...but is it what it is.

I thought Breaking Bad or Stranger Things could/would make a run to the finals, but they fell short. When I watch the final season of Stranger Things coming soon, maybe they will rise to the top of my list.

To our actual finale... I definitely thought Better Call Saul would be here in the end. I would’ve probably made them ‘the favorite’ in betting odds (and Severance #2 in the odds) before we got going. When I started this, I thought This Is Us was strong but didn’t think they could topple the big non-legacy ‘network’ (NBC, CBS, etc.) shows...but here they are.

How do we decide this?

In my mind, I am thinking -- a big reason why I love Better Call Saul so much is the main character...Bob Odenkirk’s ‘Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman’. Arguably my favorite TV character of all-time...at least in dramatic series. I tend to like ‘the bad guys’ or ‘the slick guys, trying to get away with something’. Maybe it’s a male thing (we seem to adore the Goodfellas and Godfather and Breaking Bad and Sopranos things of the world)...maybe it’s a growing up in New York thing (and seeing some ‘activity’ in my youth). I don’t know, but an odd thing with Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul is...they made me root for, essentially, the ‘bad guy’...the person you shouldn’t root for. It’s an odd thing really. But I do like watching/rooting for ‘bad guys’. Possible mental issue on my behalf.

This Is Us has some elements of good guys and bad guys too, but much more tame...which makes it that much more impressive, really. We walk/witness quite a life journey with This Is Us’s fictional characters...and the creator does an amazing job of making us hate then like then hate again then possibly like again...or the reverse...several characters weaving in and out of the story. How they made so many characters compelling and gut-wrenching at times...it’s brilliant television/storytelling. The best story telling of ‘normal’ that you will ever see. All the other TV show/series contenders have these flamboyant or big presence characters thrust into wild or implausible situations/lives that we get to follow...but This Is Us was simply brilliant in taking a somewhat ‘normal’ life (and the normal crazy that goes with it) situation/s and walking you through a journey with the various characters, and making the audience emotional over them through terrific, not cheap emotional heart string pulls, story execution and acting.

This Is Us was a brilliant storyline start-to-finish, episode-to-episode but so was Better Call Saul...and if you consider Breaking Bad is part of the storyline, then it’s even more amazing they could have two sets of stories independently, but then connected, weaving through various timelines of history of the characters.

Both of these shows are utterly brilliant, but I have to pick one...and I made up my mind just now...typing that last paragraph. I give the win, my #1 TV series, to Better Call Saul. And I’ll tell you why/what just hit me in the last paragraph...

I really want to give both finalists the win, a co-win...but then when thinking about Better Call Saul being connected to Breaking Bad...and that Breaking Bad has as much right to be here in the finals as any TV series -- what better way to honor the power of the ‘Breaking Bad universe’ then by giving the win to Better Call Saul as a way of also honoring Breaking Bad. They really are a package deal.

So, there you have it...for now, this day...ask me tomorrow and it might be different. ’Slipping Jimmy for the win!’.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be around 4/4 or 4/5 +/-.

*IDP top 500+ will debut today! Dynasty and Best Ball.

====================================

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

THU 4/3

(8:06amET)

-- You may have seen the rumors on Kenneth Walker being shopped around by Seattle. A couple notes on things I have been told about this...

1) They tried to move Walker (in the final year of his rookie deal) to the Raiders, because of the Pete Carroll obvious connection...but they couldn’t get it done in the Geno Smith deal...and no movement on a deal since.

2) The Raiders have been in some talks with Tampa Bay about Rachaad White (in the final year of his rookie deal), but teams want more than the market is willing to pay for RBs in the last years of their deal.

Tampa Bay, for example, might as well just keep Rachaad vs. getting a 6th-round pick...or cut him (which they won’t, because he’s cheap) and get a better free agent compensatory pick in the future (when he is signed by whatever team).

2) Back to Ken Walker: There’s no real market for Walker. And Walker thinks there is...and he would like to either stay in Seattle with a new deal or be moved to a team where he’d sign a new deal (he’s a free agent after this season). The real marketplace issue is: the tsunami of RB prospects incoming this year/draft...no one's gonna spend much payroll on generically good RBs, like Walker. Not in trade and not with giving any of them new/big contracts.

Upcoming free agent RBs next year (and the next, and the next), there is not going to be any real market for them at all because of the supply and demand mechanisms have the advantage in the hands of the teams, not the RBs.

Free agent RBs next year...

Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, James Cook, Brian Robinson, Rachaad White, Jerome Ford, Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco, Kyren Williams are the more intriguing names.

Who wants them that badly, given all the talent flooding the NFL? Who will need them? Where will they go to get paid? There will likely be another 10+ RB surge of prospects hitting the league next year (2026) on top of all the free agents...coming off the 2025 tsunami and the 2024 big wave.

Fantasy Football is gonna be insanity the next few years.

RB valuations in Fantasy will be one year at a time deals. Saquon, CMC, and Henry...and Kamara and Jon Taylor might be the last of the ‘franchise’/highly paid RBs. Soon it will be 1-2 year deals for RBs...inventive laded deals, etc.

Look at 2025 free agency...Najee got the biggest deal...one year at $5.3M guaranteed. That’s nothing. The second biggest deal for an RB? Rico Dowdle...$2.8M...which was initially reported as a $6M deal. The $6M mark is if he reaches insane incentives in 2025...incentives that only happen IF there is major injury and Dowdle is forced to carry the team, which if Chuba went down...Dowdle would not be left alone, they’d sign/add other RBs to work.

The Dowdle incentives:

Base Salary: $2.75 million, fully guaranteed, per Spotrac and Over The Cap. This includes a $1.17 million base, a $1 million signing bonus, and a $30,000 workout bonus.

Incentives: Up to $3.5 million in performance-based bonuses, per The Athletic and NFL Network. These include:

$500,000 for 800 yards from scrimmage
$500,000 for 950 yards
$500,000 for 1,100 yards
$1 million for 1,350 yards
$250,000 for 6 total TDs
$250,000 for 8 total TDs
$500,000 for a Pro Bowl selection

Najee Harris has another $3M+ in incentives on his LAC deal, details not public yet...but are probably for hitting 1,000+ rushing yards and tiered up to 1,500+ yards.

The small base salary + major incentives for one year is the wave of the future for RBs (and then will start to hit other positions as well).

Kenneth Walker and Rachaad White, among others...don’t stand a chance in free agency 2026.

The battleground RBs who will want major deals this offseason -- James Cook, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams. Will their teams capitulate? Will the RBs/their agents capitulate? Does James Cook realize how utterly replaceable he is? When Buffalo, as an example, tells Cook to go find a trade/new deal out there he likes (if dealings get contentious this summer)...his agent/team won’t find it. No one is paying a major deal for James Cook.

You’d think.

It only takes one dumb, desperate, poorly run team...like a Cleveland or whomever...to not understand the market. But I think most all teams are realizing they control the market on RBs.

-- The early win totals to bet over/under are posting on the various betting sites. Usually there is that ONE that stands out for us to go ‘crush’...

2023...it was the glorious year of the Panthers with Bryce Young and the under.

2024...was the double whammy of the Rams OVER and Bears UNDER as our hot bets (and not the Titans OVER, and not the Vikings UNDER, but the Jags UNDER as lower tier bets).

2025 (initial)...I’ve been going through it with Ross, we’ve been trying to prove or disprove things...and we cannot find anything we love to present to everyone, yet. And it feels very weird that there is not that ONE jumping out just yet.

More details on our search to come.

We are working on some other non-over/under win totals to bet on...bets on player props (draft or season long) or playoff things and I will be sharing those next week.

More on all the new betting opportunities next week...when we open up the new ‘betting’ season subscriptions for 2025, for those who like to partake. Welcome South Carolina to the legal betting world, I just heard!

Hold off signing up for the new 2025 Betting season subscription -- until we give you the signal and info in the next day or so.

-- I saw this story a few days ago, and I had never heard about it before. After spending a couple days going to Disney last week, I was intrigued by this...so, I thought I’d share it:

https://nypost.com/2025/03/28/lifestyle/new-yorkers-are-paying-1200-for-a-better-faster-commute/

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

--------------------

The battle to see who takes on Better Call Saul in my TV Series tourney finals...This Is Us vs. Severance.

One weird (to me) note about this matchup...on the Severance side -- Severance is still ‘happening’. We’re probably halfway or less through the entire series/story...Season 2 just finished. So, I’m judging the ‘so far’ (Severance) versus a show that finished its journey a couple of years ago, This Is Us. Hard to make a real judgement on like watching half a movie versus a classic that has been seen all the way through, maybe multiple times.

What if Severance botches it from here? It’s been great so far, but what if they blow it next season? It’s a factor to some degree...but what if it’s amazing ahead, even better ahead? I’m just going to judge it on the first two seasons...it’s all I can do. And the first two seasons of Severance have been sensational.

But This Is Us was sensational for most/all of six seasons.

How to judge?

I am going to give the nod to This Is Us...in what might be a mild shocker. I’m shocked, big picture, on my love for This Is Us...from the standpoint that I proclaimed I would never watch this show because it looked ‘sappy’, and I thought because it was a network show (NBC), that there was no way it could compete with the AMCs or Apple or Netflix or HBO powerhouse producers. I refused to watch it...and then I did, and it has to be one of the all-time best, most consistent storytelling of all time...with a unique presentation that was just so wonderful throughout.

Severance may win this matchup in the future/by the time they finish their run. Severance is like Magic Johnson, going with a basketball reference -- a great player with flash and pizazz that left your jaw dropped with some of his plays. This Is Us is like Larry Bird...he doesn’t look like much at first glance, but then you watch him play and you cannot believe how great he is, consistently relentlessly great.

I love Severance because of the unique art that it is, but I credit This Is Us more for the total package that we can all relate to -- great story with a ton of twists, fantastic acting, great core of characters but also excellent secondary characters...a great symphony of a TV show/series...but extra credit for -- this show literally brought me to tears most episodes...it made me care about fictional characters in a way I have never experienced otherwise. And it's not just me, my BFF started to watch it from my recommendation and his eyes couldn’t contain the water leakage either. And it’s not a cheesy tug on your heartstrings...it’s real-life situations where you are literally a fly on the wall of people’s lives...and you go from being mad at a character to then understanding them and possibly liking them as you go, or the reverse. It’s such great storytelling and presentation...and it was a network show, so it didn’t have to go to swearing or sex to try and make a point or get a rise. It was pure storytelling, twists, and acting...and unique presentation.

So, This Is Us moves on to face Better Call Saul in the finals...tomorrow. And a lot of what I said about This Is Us applies to Better Call Saul, so I have no clue how I will judge it. I’ll have to pick a winner tomorrow.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*A new Mock Draft from Ross Jacobs

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be around 4/4 +/-.

*IDP top 500 will debut in early April with the top 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ IDP rookies there as well. Getting closer to finishing but not likely to hit a March end deadline. April 2-3-4 range is the estimated debut of the IDP rankings.

====================================

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

WED 4/2

(8:11amET)

-- Let me post an entire RotoBlurb and discuss it...one that should send shockwaves about the entire NFL scouting industry but will absolutely not do that. Instead, football people, and thus the fans, will just nod their head knowingly/approvingly at the ‘football speak’ in this blurb and just move on, happily, with their day.

The NBC blurb is about Caleb Williams, commenting on a ProFootballTalk story...

Blurb Headline: Bears head coach Ben Johnson said the team will “go back to the basics” in offseason work with QB Caleb Williams.

Blurb Commentary: Johnson in his first year as the Bears’ head coach will get the chance to work with his franchise quarterback this offseason. Williams is “very comfortable” in shotgun formation, so Johnson said they will “work to see the comfort level under center” to further open up the offense. As last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Williams struggled at times and finished 3,541 passing yards while taking a whopping 68 sacks. Now he gets to build from the ground up with an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson. Bears fans will be excited to hear about head coach and franchise quarterback working closely together leading into the season.

My reaction...

Go back to the basics? How in the world did a quarterback get universally ranked #1 overall in an entire draft, with a load of QB talent available, and a year later, his draft team has to go back to the basics with him? You go #1 overall in a draft...#1 at your position, in a year with a ton of QB options, there should be no question about your abilities.

I can’t wait for the stories about how Washington needs to get back to the basics with Jayden Daniels...or Denver with Bo Nix...or Atlanta with Michael Penix...or Minnesota with J.J. McCarthy. I’ll be waiting a long time for those stories, because they won’t happen...only the absolutely universal BEST player, BEST quarterback in last year’s draft, so said 99%+ of the football community, needs to (just one year later) ‘go back to the basics’.

‘Go back to the basics’ means = basically...you suck at your job, currently. And it’s YOU, not the team or the offense or the coaches. How can this be with the universally best player in last year’s draft, hands down?

I guess it’s not like anyone could have foreseen this if they scouted his college tape thoroughly...oh wait, someone did. Why didn’t 99%+ of football people NOT see these problems with Caleb in college?

Because football scouting is ‘feelings’ and ‘agreeing with the consensus...because they must know what they’re doing’. It’s not a science that certain or several people in the NFL have down pat. We’re all being bullshitted for years...decades. The older, wise-looking guy wearing a white lab coat with a stethoscope hanging around his neck in the commercial must know what they’re talking about...after all, they’re a doctor...and not a paid actor reading/acting from a script!

Very comfortable ‘in shotgun’ (the blurb says)? What NFL tape/games was this writer watching...what tape was Ben Johnson watching? No one in the NFL looked more uncomfortable as a QB in 2024 than the #1 overall pick in the draft, supported by 99%+ of the football population.

If Caleb is uncomfortable in the shotgun AND under center...what did the Bears just draft/waste a #1 overall pick on? It was sitting there waiting to be discovered on his college tape, but no one but me (and I’m sure a random few others down the football food chain) noticed it?

If Caleb cannot suddenly ‘learn’ the basics of quarterback play this year -- Bears fans will turn on him this year...Ben Johnson’s career is damaged because he is expected to magically ‘fix’ Caleb...and the GM Ryan Poles should be fired, then quickly rehired, and fired 5 minutes later to serve a double punishment/double firing for the incredibly awful blunders he made at the QB position...Justin Fields and potentially Caleb Williams are colossal blunders that caused them to not take C.J. Stroud or Jayden Daniels, among others. One mistake happens...but two MONSTER scouting mistakes/opportunities blown?!?! How do these people keep their jobs?

I’m not pointing out an NFL scouting error and making fun of it to boost myself for being on the opposite side of the bet, a bet that I am scouting-winning so far. It’s not that angle as the key takeaway here.

My fascination...my point to drive home -- THEY do not know what they are doing in scouting. There is reason after reason, example after example, year after year to not trust what the 99% consensus is seeing in any draft. Caleb wasn’t a 50/50 debate that the Bears are potentially about to ‘miss’ on...every scout/GM would’ve made the same mistake/choice. It’s that 99%+ of all the football people signed off on Caleb as wholly, obviously the #1 QB...the #1 player in the draft...and what should have been a ‘can’t miss’ thing is turning out to be an epic miss by EVERYONE in football...almost everyone.

And it’s not just a one-off event...it’s Bryce Young...it’s Marvin Harrison...and I could go on forever. When football people are all piled into one side of an argument...it’s a huge red flag, or it should be...but it’s not, it’s never...we just keep going on trusting ‘the system’.

There is no real ‘system’.

It’s a broken ‘system’.

AND I don’t want it to change. We can only make money at this (betting or FF or sports card investments) if the ‘system’ stays in place and keeps operating as-is.

And I do think there is raw material to try to work with Caleb on, and that he might be able to become ‘OK’...but ‘bust’ is on the table as well...and that was not worthy of being the #1 overall pick...and why isn’t anyone outside of knowledgeable Bears fans screaming about the core issue of the GM’s horrific mistakes in the draft at QB in the news or blurbs or whatever? Because they were all onboard with it...the mirror would be held up to them for blame as well.

Wait until you see how wrong they are gonna be on Shedeur Sanders...

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

--------------------

OK, the showdown of showdowns in the Final Four: Breaking Bad vs. Better Call Saul.

Both were/are so great...so iconic. The populace prefers Breaking Bad...the critics tend to rate Better Call Saul higher.

I don’t even know how to pick between these two. Breaking Bad, for me, really kicked off an era/opened my eyes to what a great TV series could be like. For me, prior to this show, there was no ‘wow’ TV series (again, for me/my TV journey)...only iconic network sitcoms and 7,000 network police dramas (Law & Order, etc.), with HBO doing some interesting stuff seemed to be my options -- but nothing like where I was on the edge of my seat every episode for however many seasons (like 5-6 from memory in Breaking Bad) and always marveling at every episode and season thinking -- ‘how could anyone top this?’ I didn’t watch Breaking Bad until like 3-4 seasons were already done/happened...because I didn’t believe TV series could sustain my interest...I was blind to the new era hitting. It was Breaking Bad that opened my eyes. I was late to the party.

How could anyone top Breaking Bad? That was my mindset after watching it all.

...and then Better Call Saul comes along and just picks up right where Breaking Bad left off.

...and then a bunch of other great, unique TV series erupted through the door Breaking Bad kicked open...for me it was Breaking Bad that blazed the trail. Better Call Saul just kept expanding that trail.

But I’m stalling on this decision, I think...I don’t want to have to pick a winner between these two. It’s not an obvious decision.

I am going to go with my gut instinct...my current ‘feelings’ on this...and that is: While Breaking Bad was so groundbreaking and excellent, I thought Bob Odenkirk was so ‘special’ on Better Call Saul, and the season/s with ‘Jimmy’ and his brother (Michael McKean) were so incredibly well done, so compelling and clever and unique...taking the great Breaking Bad vibe to the next level -- I give the reluctant nod to Better Call Saul over the show that ‘Saul’ was only possible to be in existence, Breaking Bad. It seems like heresy to do so, but I just thought Better Call Saul was just a tad more brilliant than BB. It’s a coin flip.

Tomorrow, we have the other side of the Final Four bracket...This Is Us vs. Severance.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be around 4/4 +/-.

***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and PlayerProfiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

TUE 4/1

(8:08amET)

*Don’t forget it’s stupid April Fool’s Day today...I hate the whole concept of it because of the lengths people used to go through to try and trick people and it would be cruel and dangerous in the name of silliness. Have your guard up. I’m not setting you up. Just warning you for anyone trying to do something or publish a report on something ridiculous. I truly hate this ‘holiday’. Those who have been with me for 2-3-5-10+ years...have I ever done anything silly/tricky on this day ever? No, I have not. I never will. Just a PSA for you headed into the workplace or if you see a strange headline story, etc., to start your day.

A lot of QB news tidbits the past few days...

-- Aaron Rodgers working out with DK Metcalf doesn’t just ‘happen’ by chance, I assume. It seems like Rodgers has been backed into a corner of ‘if he’s gonna play, on his terms, it’s gonna be for the Steelers’.

And it seems like the same old song with NFL players...they rarely leave the game ‘early’ or ‘on-time’. And why should they if someone is going to pay them millions to do something they love, and Rodgers has no kids...so why not keep playing for tens of millions of dollars? The retirement angle to the Rodgers’ 2025 story looks like it is dead. Plenty of time to retire in 1-5 years.

My guess is that the Steelers agreed to ‘let Aaron be Aaron’ and are allowing him concessions to go at his own timetable and attend things Rodgers’ wants to attend and skip things he wants to skip, etc.

Minnesota must not have acquiesced to Rodgers, maybe on multiple levels. Rodgers wanted to play for Minnesota so bad... I wonder if we’ll ever get the real story as to why the Vikings have seemingly ‘passed’ on this?

I’ve started changing our internal projections on the Steelers’ things to a heavy assumption Rodgers will be their QB for 2025...to be reflected in the next projections update later this week.

-- The Titans are still making overtures that they may not take a QB #1. But I am not buying it at all. They are taking a QB #1, Cam Ward. And then they will likely trade Will Levis on day one or day two, after they officially draft Ward...once it’s secured.

Tennessee doesn’t need to announce anything now or trade Levis ahead. There is no real Levis market anyway. The Titans just need to sit back and see if any crazy offers come in for the #1 pick...or you never know if Ward would get into an accident, etc. So, it is technically true/possible...Tennessee may not take a QB, but only if something unexpected happened with Ward.

And the NFL wants both Tennessee and Cleveland NOT to tip their hands for the TV drama...AND TEN or CLE must prepare for any curveballs the next few weeks -- imagine if Ward got into a serious accident or a serious scandal? These teams need to explore Plan Bs on the ‘what ifs’. It’s smart business. Cleveland needs a Plan B and Plan C...and so on.

-- One day, the Jets GM says Justin Fields is the starter...but that Tyrod Taylor is ‘right on his heels’. The next day, the head coach says Fields is ‘ready to break out as a top-notch quarterback’.

Aaron Glenn, not the Jets GM, is absolutely running that team...so, get ready for all-hands-on-deck to make Glenn’s words come true...which is very bullish for Fields for FF purposes. He’s a QB1 for FF out of the gates in 2025.

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

--------------------

The final Elite 8 matchup...This Is Us vs. The Chosen

I guess a running theme here is a -- a large family with multiple storylines running through all the characters, as we go back and forth from the current to the past to the future and back again at any moment in these series.

The Chosen is the Christian series following the life of Jesus. Once again I say, I figured initially that this show would be not-great...more weak attempts at Christian entertainment/cinema, etc., but this series really is very good, very well done -- they did a good job, as each season was made with a bigger and bigger budget to add a ‘Breaking Bad’ type style to the presentation. And being a Christian...I am partial to the story, so it tugs at the heartstrings quite a bit. I think anyone of any religion may enjoy it, but it’s definitely partial/biased to the Christians.

This Is Us was a show I swore I would never watch. I saw commercials for it over the years...and never watched it. My wife watched it on a whim...then ended up bingeing it all (after the series had already finished/ended its run) and she swore how great it was. But I wouldn’t bite on it.

As my wife watched it for a second-time around, I randomly sat down and watched a scene...taking a break from my work...and it looked not-bad, so my wife pitched to me to consider watching it from the beginning, and she’d watch with me because it was that good...so, I relented to give it a one episode tryout the next day. And, I did...and I was hooked within like 2-5 minutes.

I’m pretty easy to tear up when watching something on TV, movie or series, that warrants it. I have shed a few tears at various The Chosen episodes...I mean, it’s my Savior...how could I not...but also blame a fine presentation on the stories from the Bible by the director, etc., but This Is Us is a constant ‘waterworks’ for me. Which is truly amazing because The Chosen...I know/knew the stories, the realities being presented and it’s still emotional...but This Is Us created fictional characters and made my eyes leak water over the characters/situations with (too) great consistency...doing so with wonderful storytelling and acting.

The Christian in me is supposed to tell you: ‘If you’re gonna watch any show, you should watch The Chosen’. But the art critic in me would say EVERYONE should watch This Is Us. Everyone would like This is Us...there’s something in it for every generation. It’s a master class of story telling and switching eras back-and-forth...to the past, to the future, back to the present...just enough of a taste of the past and future leaving you wanting more and trying to figure out how these stories are gonna collide and conclude. This Is Us is magical television, and I highly recommend it to you...especially a good one to watch for couples but is totally fine for a solo ride.

This Is Us moves on to the Final Four.

And I have the Final Four brackets set...with no idea how I’m going to judge it until I sit down to write the piece each day.

This Is Us will take on Severance.

AND

Breaking Bad will take on Better Call Saul...this is a matchup that HAS to happen. And it will, tomorrow.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be around 4/4 +/-.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

MON 3/31

(7:08amET)

-- Brandon Aiyuk will get a $22M+ guarantee bonus on April 1st/TUE...or the 49ers could cut him today and cost themselves like a $35M+ CAP hit in 2025.

I think they could cut him today...or sell him off for a 3rd-round pick and eat a bunch of the salary. If not traded, and just outright cut -- when he signs wherever, SF would likely get a 3rd/4th-round compensation pick for it down the road.

Teams interested in a trade for Aiyuk can just wait to see what SF does...and if they retain Aiyuk, they can trade for him after 4/1. If he gets cut, he’s open season for bidders.

Aiyuk (coming off an ACL) may not be ready for action until halfway+ through this season, so SF isn’t losing much in 2025...whatever they do (pay or cut/take a hit) with Aiyuk, 2025 is likely a wasted season/payroll. And we see the way the 49ers are ditching players/gaining current and future payroll...so, why wouldn’t they just keep cutting away and drop Aiyuk today, take the hit in an obvious ‘lost season’?

There is a case to just pay Aiyuk his bonus because he’s gonna cost them a ton of money either way and then look to deal him at the trade deadline when he has more market value...assuming he’s back healthy then.

It’s going to be a very interesting day for the 49ers/Aiyuk. Typically, NFL teams are not bold with these types of moves...and thus admitting a massive mistake paying him last year. So, the safe bet is they just keep him/pay him roster bonus due tomorrow.

...but the 49ers have been slashing and burning their roster and payroll hard this past month, so there is an appetite for them to continue the radical roster makeover and just ditch Aiyuk like they’ve done with Deebo-Greenlaw-Ward-Hufanga-Banks-Hargrave-Moore-Floyd-Collins.

-- Speaking of WRs...Tyreek Hill is supposedly making waves again about wanting to be traded. It could be Tyreek doing his normal attention-seeking activity...or today he wants to be traded, and we’ll see how he feels tomorrow.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Tyreek got traded, but I think Miami is desperate to hold him. But, if he wanted to, Tyreek could make it a big public issue/distraction and force his way out by being too much of a distraction in the end.

If Tyreek is traded...

1) He blows up the target flow of whatever team he lands with. (example) If it’s back to KC, Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice both get their Dynasty value chopped severely.

2) Jaylen Waddle’s FF-value rises fast.

3) Tua Tagovailoa would be a MUST SELL...I don’t want much to do with him as it is, but without Tyreek...no thank you at all.

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

--------------------

A powerhouse matchup here...the third of 4 matchups in the Elite 8 = Severance vs. Stranger Things.

Both I think are great, obviously...but I mean that in a way where I thought, before we started the tourney, that either of these two shows had a chance to go all the way. Stranger Things gets a bad rap for being a ‘sci fi’ type show and not a serious story -- but it’s been a very good/interesting story and that last season was one of the best seasons of TV that I’ve seen...in terms of story continuity (they built to the last season storyline for years in the making).

On the other hand, Severance is not ‘sci-fi’, per se, it’s more of a pure piece of art...and I don’t mean that like in a pretentious or highbrow way. I mean the way it is shot...acted...the dialogue...the storyline...the slow build...it’s masterful. It takes my breath away how good that show has become...and, again, I was about to throw in the towel on it after the first four episodes...but upon a second watch/retrospect -- those first 4 episodes were great too, I just couldn’t handle the art being presented in front of me at the time.

However, credit Stranger Things for not being a curveball on the first pitch...you get hooked 2 minutes in, and they never let off the gas. It’s a fastball right down the middle. But I’ve seen great sci-fi-ish stories before, like Stranger Things is. I’ve never seen anything presented like Severance.

Stranger Things is pretty much a ‘can’t miss’ watch for anyone of all ages and likes. Severance is a little more eclectic...but for those that make the journey to the final episodes of Season One, Severance is a mind-blowing ‘can’t miss’. Both shows are so good, and recency bias may be pushing this too...but I give the nod/win to Severance for not only being so good but also so unique and unlike anything else I’ve seen before.

What’s funny is, if I polled my family...Stranger Things is a thumbs up from everyone. Everyone of different tastes liked it. Severance, however, would be a split decision among the group. Stranger Things deserves credit for being so good to a mass audience, which is hard to do because shows usually ‘sell out’ garbage to a mass audience at a certain point, or right away...trading quality for a wide net ‘pop music’ quantity/appeal -- but not Stranger Things...they juggle being mass appeal but high quality.

Severance ultimately gets the win because if you told me to take a one-month sabbatical from work and that I had to watch one show during that time...I’d choose to rewatch Severance for a third time before I watched Stranger Things for a second time. If I were in the dating pool today, and on a hypothetical first date they told me they loved (or hated) Stranger Things...it wouldn’t move me either way, per se. But if they told me they loved Severance, we might be a match; they’d get a second date potentially...and if they hated Severance, I’d politely swipe right (or left, whatever...I don’t know anything about dating apps).

The Elite 8: The Chosen vs. This Is Us is the last matchup for the Final Four.

Onto the Final Four: Better Call Saul, Breaking Bad, Severance

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause this week...trying to catch up from a week of travel. I’ll catch up to them ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Sat. 3/29. Next update will be around 4/4 +/-.

*IDP top 500 will debut in early April with the top 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ IDP rookies there as well. Getting closer to finishing but not likely to hit a March end deadline.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).