RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 3/10-3/16 (The Week That Was...)

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 16 March 2025

RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

SUN 3/16

(8:31amET)

-- This thought struck me as odd...

The current ‘lead back’ for all the teams in the AFC West:

Kareem Hunt, KC

Najee Harris, LAC

Jaleel McLaughlin/Audric Estime, DEN

Raheem Mostert, LV

Isn’t that a ‘weird’ group of names to be lead backs in such a power division? Just thinking out loud, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have three RBs on the roster that are better than any RB in the entire AFC West division: Bucky-Rachaad-Tucker.

What about Isiah Pacheco? We’ll see if he can get his groove back from that foot injury...but it’s looking a little precarious. I think he is in a split with Hunt...and the lesser of the duo, until he can prove otherwise.

I know the 2025 NFL Draft will change that AFC West landscape (and the entire league’s landscape), with the RB prospect surge about to hit this year, and subsequent years -- but three of those AFC West teams have Super Bowl aspirations...will a day two or day three drafted RB really lead the way for them -- or are the listed guys (above) really gonna be the main hopes?

-- Speaking of Najee Harris...

The Chargers just signed OG Mehki Becton to a solid free agent deal...a good+ run blocking guard.

...and the narrative of the Chargers offense and Harbaugh’s lust for the run game, and thus wet blanket over the passing game rolls on...it’s not gonna ever slow down.

This offseason has not been good for any Justin Herbert/the LAC passing game upside hopes, for FF.

For the LAC run game: Najee signed, Beckton signed.

For the LAC passing game: *checks notes...shuffles papers...crickets chirping* Mike Williams brought back from the dead (but still dead)...and Jalen Reagor signed. For a team with an absolute lack of passing weapons outside of Ladd.

Jim Harbaugh...are you ever gonna stop running the ball every offensive play? https://youtube.com/shorts/A7ckoau8U14?si=RM3ZbSzuI6gYkYKY

I guess he ain’t ever gonna stop.

-- Brace yourself NFL...I don’t want to offend your EDGE rusher idol worship, but...

This story (below), the actions by Myles Garrett doesn’t really matter. Because...for EDGE rushers, how hard do they really need to study for any given game week? Garrett is/most all EDGE rushers are just gonna put their heads down and try and speed around the outside of their blocker, where they can safely be blocked way outta the play on 95%+ of their snaps...blocked away from any scrum of defenders falling down by their feet/legs and thus reducing the risk of getting hurt.

The cleanest jerseys in most football games -- backup QBs, kickers, and EDGE rushers.

But, as the 2nd-highest paid employee of the Browns team, 1st among those who will actually play in 2025 -- is this setting a high standard for the team/teammates? https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/report-myles-garrett-frequently-shows-up-late-skips-mandatory-team-events#

Man, the Browns have really had some epic defenses the past 8 years with the elite pass rushing of Garrett. Oh wait, no they haven’t.

Since Myles Garrett was drafted, here’s where the Browns defense has ranked in PPG allowed in the NFL: 31-21-20-21-13-20-13-27 (avg. rank # 20.8). They are really due for a top 10 defensive finish any year now, I can feel it.

The Browns only gave Garrett $88.8 million guaranteed on his new deal and $150M+ overall in the contract, so no biggie. We know the Browns are great contract negotiators...they’ll be paying Garrett and Deshaun tens of millions of dollars the next few years for almost no production ROI in return. The Browns are doomed...as always.

...good thing they got rid of that terrible Baker Mayfield when they could.

-- Yesterday’ Daily Dynasty Briefing report/video, if you missed it (transactions/headlines for Friday 3/14): https://youtu.be/XgYTEfkOPIc?si=lT5NWfllztLodHpr

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report tonight...a new RB report.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news (Daily Dynasty Briefing) will hit later today.

*Best Ball top 600 debuted yesterday. The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) updated this past Thursday. Next updates on them will be next week...maybe Russ and Rodgers will have made decisions, finally?

The Dynasty and Best Ball projections include the top 50+ rookies, as best we know/scout them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades (1.0) will start to post the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up into the NFL Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.

SAT 3/15

(8:23amET)

-- Well, Cooper Kupp finally signed...and he got way more money than I expected = 3-years/$45M from Seattle. BUT, before I freak out about the deal...we don’t know (yet) how much was guaranteed.

I’m just fascinated by two thoughts from this...

1) The Rams paid $15M in CAP hits in 2025 and will take on another $7.5M in hits in 2026...$22.5M total in CAP hits just to get away from Kupp.

How much has Kupp fallen off that would force a pretty smart personnel team, the Rams, to spend a boatload of money to make him go away? Would we trust the Rams in this guessing game that something is amiss with Kupp?

2) Seattle is taking on Kupp...taking on the Rams ‘trash’...their expensive trash and giving him a ton more money.

Which triad seems more daunting...more favorable for 2025: Geno-Metcalf-Lockett or Darnold-Kupp-MVS? Seattle needed to move DKM, but I don’t think they’re improving things with these moves...but others (our Ross Jacobs) beg to differ. We’ll find out in about 7-8 months or so...

I really like the Rams odds/bet to win the NFC West right now.

-- Kareem Hunt signed back with KC for 1-year/$1.5M...which is absolutely inexplicable, to me.

Hunt was one of the better starting RBs in the NFL last season...signed in an emergency after the Isiah Pacheco injury...signed off the street, two weeks later he took over the backfield and was very productive. So productive that when Pacheco returned (and was not good)...Hunt kept the lead back role right up to the Super Bowl.

All that gets him is a 1-year/$1.5M contract?

Raheem Mostert, about 4 years older than Hunt, signed the day prior with the Raiders for $2.1M.

No team in the NFL saw the value in pursuing Hunt at his bargain price?

Isaiah Pacheco’s FF value has all but been ruined...back to last year, but he is ‘best case’ splitting with Hunt this year...worst case, he just fades into the background with Hunt taking the lead again. And if Elijah Mitchell is ever healthy...

The free agent RBs signed in 2025, to one-year deals, in order of biggest contract...you’re gonna be shocked by this top 7 (base contract money, not by guarantees or what’s possible with incentives):

1) Rico Dowdle $6.3M

2) Najee Harris $5.25M (incentives take him towards $10M+, if he hits them)

3) Javonte Williams $3.0M

4) Elijah Mitchell $2.5M

5) Raheem Mostert $2.1M

6) Kenneth Gainwell $1.79M

7) Kareem Hunt $1.5M

Hunt was far and away the best-looking RB, of this list, in 2024. Unbelievable.

The biggest ticket RBs still available: Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins.

Dobbins likely gets a 1-year deal for $2M +/-...maybe $2M with some incentives to a possible $3-4M.

Nick Chubb may go anywhere from $2-5M...and I think Chubb is very likely going to the Steelers, with the Giants and Bears in the mix...the Vikings, Bengals, or Broncos possibly kicking the tires too.

-- Our Best Ball top 600 rankings debuted yesterday.

I asked someone if they liked my picture choice I used for the post this year. And they were like, “Who are those people? What does it mean?”

I try to get clever, occasionally, capturing pictures that creatively capture the mood or vibe or meaning of the report/article/post. But in case this Best Ball one doesn’t make sense at first glance...it’s shot from the new movie coming out this year -- Happy Gilmore 2.

Did you know Happy Gilmore 2 was being made? The picture I used features the two iconic rivals from the original movie, but in the current day...looking considerably older because the original hit movie theaters 29 years ago.

Movie Trailer for HG2: https://youtu.be/6d6WBtDse_Y?si=xrrE6NQXiQPDFyRp

Also, the person who could not identify that the picture was of modern-day Adam Sandler/Happy Gilmore and iconic Shooter McGavin...they also didn’t know what connection that had to ‘Best Ball’?

Every Best Ball post, every year, I use a golf-themed picture. Because the term ‘Best Ball’ originated in golf. Doesn’t everyone know that? Hasn’t everyone played in a ‘Best Ball’ tournament? Maybe not, as I am finding out. The term is only like 200 years old, so... And you know Happy Gilmore was a golf movie? If you have never seen Happy Gilmore...if you're an American...you're actually un-American if you've not seen it.

A history lesson that I looked up on Grok 3.0:

The term "best ball" in the context of sports, particularly fantasy football, originates from golf, where it has been used for over a century to describe a scoring format. Its evolution into fantasy sports reflects a practical adaptation of this concept, blending competitive strategy with simplicity. Here’s a detailed exploration of its origins, supported by historical context and critical analysis, as of March 14, 2025.

In golf, "best ball" (also known as "better ball") refers to a team format where the lowest score among players on a team for each hole is counted toward the team’s total. This term dates back to at least the late 19th century, with early references appearing in golf rulebooks and club records from the British Isles, where the sport formalized. The Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews, founded in 1754, began codifying such formats by the 1880s, and "best ball" was noted in match play competitions as a way to level the field among teammates of varying skill levels. The Oxford English Dictionary traces its usage to golfing literature around 1890, cementing its place in the sport’s lexicon.

The transition to fantasy football occurred in the early 2000s, pioneered by platforms like MyFantasyLeague.com and later popularized by FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) around 2007-2008. In this context, "best ball" describes a fantasy format where lineup decisions are automated—managers draft a roster, and the platform selects the highest-scoring players each week without weekly management. The term was borrowed directly from golf’s scoring method, where the "best" performance (lowest score or highest points) is chosen, adapting it to maximize offensive output. Early adopters like Alan Satterlee, a key figure in FFPC’s development, credited the golf analogy for its intuitive appeal, noting in interviews that it simplified strategy for casual players.

Critically, the golf origin explains the term’s focus on optimization, but its fantasy adoption reflects a marketing shift—emphasizing ease over traditional lineup tinkering. Some argue the term’s casual roots might underplay the strategic depth of drafting, yet its growth (e.g., Underdog Fantasy’s $15M in 2023 prize pools) shows its resonance. The lack of a single inventor in fantasy sports, unlike golf’s structured evolution, suggests an organic spread, possibly influenced by early internet forums like Reddit’s r/fantasyfootball, where “best ball” gained traction by 2010. Thus, its origin lies in golf’s 19th-century scoring, reimagined for 21st-century fantasy football.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report today -- didn’t finish my report for yesterday in time, so it posts midday today.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news will hit midday.

*Best Ball top 600 debuted yesterday. The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) updated Thursday. Next updates on them will be next week...maybe Russ and Rodgers will have made decisions, finally?

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

FRI 3/14

(7:28amET)

-- Well... Thursday came and went, and nothing new on the open QB situations. My QB notes for the day...

The longer Rodgers waits to make a decision, to me, it is to be perceived as him trying to make his Vikings deal, have all his meetings with them, etc. -- knowing he can get the NYG or PIT job anytime he wants, as a fallback option...if the Vikings decide to just go-for-it with J.J. McCarthy instead. It’s also not out of the question that he just retires instead of playing for NYG-PIT or CLE...which would be the ultimate statement on the state of those franchises/coaching/management.

The Giants are bringing in Joe Flacco for a visit...I guess they are trying to find a Plan B, C, D, E, etc., if they get burned by Rodgers and Russ...and the Titans don’t want to deal them the #1 pick.

I still am led to believe that Jameis Winston is the Steelers Plan B if Rodgers declines them. They signed back Mason Rudolph to be some insurance. Winston is going to wait to see if he’s going to be the possible starter for either PIT or CLE primarily...NYG a longshot. If he gets none of those deals, he would likely sign with the Chargers.

Tennessee is looking more and more like they will hold the #1 pick and draft Cam Ward. If NYG signs Rodgers or Russ, then they will bow out of any ‘move to #1’ negotiations...then the Titans will be a lock for Ward, unless the Browns make a bold move and overpay to move to #2. If the Titans draft Ward, they will almost assuredly trade Will Levis...because that’s how NFL teams operate, they will move the QB that could be a threat to the new/fresh/incoming top pick QB. They signed Brandon Allen yesterday to be a potential mentor/backup to Ward.

Tennessee, by waiting until all the QB spots are filled to trade Will Levis means he will go to the best bidder outside the division. In a draft day/week trade scenario...there is an increasing hope, for Levis believers, like me, that he will get grabbed by the Rams...the Rams make a ton of sense for Levis and vice-versa. Reuniting with Liam Coen (college O-C) is less likely to be traded within the division...and JAX will not add a QB who could any pressure on Prince Trevor.

-- I was led to believe the Raiders were gonna be active and aggressive in free agency...and when I saw the Geno Smith trade last week, it looked like that was a nice prophesy message I got from a source.

But since then, the Raiders have done nothing but re-sign their own players and add cheap flier free agents. I mean, Raheem Mostert was their lone signing Thursday...after signing no one Wednesday?

I am losing faith in the new Raiders regime. I will wait a little longer to fully condemn them, because there is time to hit on a bunch of underpriced free agents hanging out there late in the process (like the Dynasty Patriots used to do) and then making bold trades instead of signing overpriced free agents could be their path.

I’m still waiting for the predicted Rachaad White to Las Vegas trade to happen...as one of the signs that they are trying to make things happen in the marketplace.

-- Quick side note...a Jayden Daniels note/short 30 second video of interest, and the future of extra football training...how A.I. is changing the football world: https://youtube.com/shorts/vyTSuX9fKio?si=VA4kp9MNRSR_3Zju

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- switching to a few RB reports, starting today.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news will hit midday.

*Best Ball top 600 debut today...different than our pure 2025 redraft rankings/valuations (debuts June)...spike scoring potential (by player capability or schedule) is one of the factors baked into the Best Ball projections/valuations.

The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) updated yesterday.

*Positional NFL Draft Grades (1.0) will start to post the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up in to the Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

THU 3/13

(7:35amET)

-- We got a stalemate, a pause in the QB musical chairs yesterday...a whole day went by and neither the Giants, Browns, or Steelers...or Titans locked in one of the remaining available QBs.

But we got a full day of rumors about it, so let’s go over where I think the QB Bingo Card stands as of the end of Wednesday’s activities...

Available Starting QBs: Rodgers, Russ...then a fall-off to Jameis Winston...and the only rookie starter hope, in theory, Cam Ward.

Teams in play for a QB: PIT, NYG, CLE, TEN...and we bring MIN back to the game.

OK, let’s match them up based on the latest intel...

MIN = Our report last night...we’re getting a good indication that Aaron Rodgers may really be about to sign with the Vikings, one last hurrah on a fantastic team/O-Line/Organization/Head Coach.

If Rodgers does sign with the Vikings...it will be a bomb going off for PIT and NYG...all their QB efforts having been foiled -- because no QB with options wants to play there.

PIT = If Rodgers signs with MIN, the Steelers become the most desperate team in this QB game. A team built to be a contender, but no legit QB to help them take the next step.

PIT either passed on or got outbid for or got out-recruited for Fields. They’ve pissed off Russ, because they haven’t wanted him. Rodgers could be another in the line of legit QBs who ran from the option of playing for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are not in a position to trade up for Ward...and PIT wants a legit QB for the NOW anyway, they don’t want a rookie QB.

They may have to make a play for Jameis Winston...or over-trade for Mitch Trubisky, who used to play there, or try and make a play for Will Levis (if TEN is taking Ward) or try to trade for Tyrod Taylor. Whatever PIT does...it’s going to be an expensive overspend in desperation.

I think they will settle for Jameis Winston (and then drafting a QB as well).

Unless...

CLE = Could be the front runner for Jameis, since he was just there...but PIT would be a better place to go if he has options in either place to start. The first team to pay up Winston and ‘guarantees’ him the starting job -- gets him. And that is most likely Pittsburgh...they have no other QB on the depth chart (today) to threaten Winston with.

CLE is trying to buy Russell Wilson as well, but it will be a bid war between NYG and CLE...and I think NYG wins that battle.

Unless...

NYG = Is desperately trying to move to the #1 pick, but it seems like the Titans are not ready to leave the #1 spot. The new Titans management group has been wholly unimpressive this offseason...the word is out, no one with options wants to play for the Callahan’s...and the new management team/structure there is not good at recruiting talent, so far. It’s either expensive Russ or make a massive overtrade for Ward.

I think NYG will blink and have to lock in Russ, because TEN is run so poorly they can’t wait on whether the Titans will really trade the pick or not.

TEN = If NYG signs Russ, then the trading of the #1 pick is theoretically over...the Titans stay at #1 and have to draft Ward. The Titans management team/committee (of sorts) has had a terrible offseason of moves...when players should want to play in Tennessee – the city sells itself...but the management is holding players with options back.

They cannot sell the fanbase on more Will Levis, so absent getting one of the name free agent QBs, which new would take a huge overpay for Russ or Rodgers -- they have to take Ward, or the fanbase will revolt.

If we see NYG lock down Russ today, and Rodgers goes to MIN today...TEN is taking Ward, and thus will trade Levis. The Steelers could be an empty spot for Levis...the Browns could offer their 2.02 pick for Levis + a Titans 3rd or 4th in return.

The Colts are trying offer up Anthony Richardson for the desperate (PIT) but no one is buying Richardson at this point...ARich’s career is in real peril if Indy can’t move him for anything worthy.

-- Best/most interesting free agents (non-QB) still up for grabs...

WR Keenan Allen

LT Cam Robinson

OG Mehki Becton

LT Tyron Smith (if he has anything left)

CB Ahkello Witherspoon

CB Stephon Gilmore

WR Cooper Kupp

EDGE Dante Fowler

RB Nick Chubb

CB Kendall Fuller

QB Cooper Rush (a QB, but just wanted to note him)

EDGE Azeez Ojulari

TE Stone Smartt

WR Olamide Zaccheaus

PK Spencer Shrader

PK Austin Siebert

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- one more WR before a switch to some RBs.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news will hit midday.

*The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) update today.

Best Ball top 600 debut FRI.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

WED 3/12

(6:30pmET)

-- I got some intel from a source that I wasn’t sure how hot it was, but it’s getting hotter by the moment, and I wanted to put it out there since my scouting report earlier this week had some J.J. McCarthy mania to it...

I am being led to believe that Aaron Rodgers is going to sign with the Vikings, not NYG...not PIT...and it’s going to happen for several interesting reasons.

What I’m being led to believe, take it for what it is worth, and most of it is obvious...

1) Rodgers is not jazzed by any of the more obvious options out there...NYG, PIT, CLE, TEN, etc. But MIN, a great team, great O-Line, great head coach, plays in a dome -- a fitting way to end his career.

2) He’s not looking at breaking the bank, he’s got plenty of money...he wants to go out a ‘winner’.

3) He will also get to face Green Bay 2x along the way.

4) He will mentor J.J. McCarthy, who the Vikings are ready to start Week 1...but if they can get Rodgers for a year and give McCarthy a year to learn and heal, they’ll take it. And if Rodgers gets hurt or flops, they got JJM right there.

If this happens, adjust your FF dials accordingly...

Justin Jefferson gets even stronger in FF value.

Rodgers reunites with Aaron Jones.

Jordan Addison retains/increases value to a degree.

T.J. Hockenson is strengthened.

Minnesota's odds on Super Bowl, Conf., Division titles will go up (bad for betting) the moment it is announced...if it is really going to happen, FYI. Look at the free agency period MIN has had -- that team is the QB away from being elite, they were getting last year with Darnold and with Darrisaw down.

(7:27amET)

-- Gut reaction to the Tuesday free agency day...

WINNER: The Vikings...they added OG Will Fries, a legit OL. They added Jonathan Allen...a back-to-back Pro Bowl DT in 2021 and 2022. And they’re closing in on Javon Hargrave. Monday they re-signed Byron Murphy, added a very smart signing of Ryan Kelly (the Colts’ long-time great center), and got a sneaky steal of Isaiah Rodgers, and re-signed Aaron Jones.

The Vikings are on the verge of surpassing the Lions...the wrinkle in that is, how much growth curve does J.J. McCarthy need? I don’t think it’s much. No more than Bo Nix did.

LOSER: The Saints...re-signed Juwan Johnson, re-signed Chase Young for big money, spend big on a Safety...Justin Reid. Spending limited CAP space on an EDGE and Safety, not smart.

The Saints are not doing what they should...they should be doing what the 49ers are doing...

-- The 49ers are being taken apart chunks at a time this free agent season. Essentially, the 49ers have ‘thrown in the towel’...admitting that their latest ‘run’, which was near-great when you think about it...two near-miss Super Bowl titles in recent years, is now over.

They stayed with it/this core group a year too long, which you can understand given how good this group had been...but now comes the dismantling. The white flag raised...surrendering to the fact that this 49ers team, going into 2025 offseason/season, is nowhere near as good as the Rams in the division...and then nowhere close to the Lions-Vikings power in the NFC North. So, it’s time to blow it up and start over.

You have to give it up to the 49ers...they looked in the mirror and realized what they were and decided they had to change -- so, here comes the painful 1-2 year rebuild through the draft.

The 49ers are the only team I see out there, among the ‘good’ teams, that have properly ‘folded’ and are retooling, not delusionally trying to go one more year (too long) with their core. SF ‘passing’ on signing Joey Bosa was an encouraging sign, proof that the 49ers are not fooling around...they really are ‘tearing it down’.

I would not be surprised at all if the 49ers traded Christian McCaffrey in-season or preseason/August, if he’s seen moving around without issue.

I would also open the door to the fact that the 49ers are now not likely to wanna pay Brock Purdy a king’s ransom...they’re gonna play some hardball...but they are gonna pay him. If they were ditching Purdy on cost and their new rebuild outlook...they would have done that in an auction of all the QB desperate teams a week ago. And I think they respect Purdy more than anyone in football does anyway. The best market/home for Purdy is with Kyle.

-- We are planning to update the Dynasty top 600 late tonight or earlier Thursday. One of the things that will change...downward...FF things related to the NY Jets. Justin Fields as their QB...his low volume passing output...it’s a wrecking ball for...

Garrett Wilson’s FF upside is hurt. Targets should be fine, but the connection rate will be down...thus likely yards down, TDs down from expectations.

Breece Hall’s rushing attempts should rise, but his high-end PPR ways are at-risk...running QBs aren’t ‘dump passers’ to RBs, at a high level, as it is...and Fields is no exception. And Fields will run for numbers and TDs...taking some action from Hall. Hall rose to PPR goodness last year with Rodgers basically treating him as a #1 WR a lot of the time...that ain’t happening with Fields.

And Braelon Allen as the short TD banger and sneaky pass game option, and 3rd-down protector...not as much needed/fit with Fields.

If you try/want to project the Jets to follow the Lions path of offense...nothing they’ve done, so far, in the offseason suggests they’re following that...and Aaron Glenn is a defensive minded HC...and the Jets have an O-Line problem among all their problems, but to this point all the Jets have done is dump Davante Adams and added three defensive players and a running/limited passing QB. They are not doing what the other ex-Lions coordinator is doing, mimicking the Lions path of building up the O-Line. The Jets offense looks headed for an ancient times power run game + defense FF disaster in 2025.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- let the WR run of reports begin!

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news will hit midday.

*The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debuted last week...the Best Ball version will debut this week after WED-THU free agency moves, as well as a top 600 Dynasty update is coming WED night or THU sometime -- the next update is lingering/waiting on Russ-Rodgers to sign/PIT and NYG to fill their QB spots.

The Dynasty and Best Ball projections include the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.

TUE 3/11

(8:16amET)

So many moves yesterday, I’ll get into all of them on another test run of my 10-minute daily video update concept...that will probably take 30+ minutes because of all the moves. We’ll also be updating the Dynasty top 600 Wednesday/Thursday...trying to get the final QB (Rodgers and Russ) pieces to fall, to update the entire landscape.

Just to hit on a few thoughts on this day one of open free agency...

Mostly, I’m shocked by many of the moves...the prices very mediocre or weak players are going for...the overspend and reaches by bad teams, some with CAP issues. You can tell a lot about a team’s management, many teams with new head coaches and/or GMs, by what they’re doing in free agency.

Mostly I see (free agency 2025) ‘losers’ making moves in free agency...not many ‘winners’, and it’s hard to be a winner in free agency because of the nature of the beast. Here are some quick reactions on things from yesterday in free agency...

-- I have no idea what the Titans are doing. I was already ‘done’ with that coaching staff...but I wanted to see what the new GM setup there would do...and it’s worse than ever. The Titans are becoming the Cleveland Browns south.

That Dan Moore contract is ridiculous...all but admitting the mistake they made drafting J.C. Latham so highly. And a big deal for Cody Barton? What is this team doing?

-- The 49ers are literally being gutted, like a fish. It’s breathtaking to look at those roster moves. They have lost a ton of good players...and the pittance of CAP they’ve not accumulated...if they spend it on Joey Bosa, I would throw-up as a 49ers fan. Most of the money is headed to Brock Purdy, but there’s no team left around him!

Are the 49ers headed towards another last place finish? Looks like it...and, if so, is Kyle Shanahan on the verge of getting fired next season?

-- The Raiders had all this money to spend, and hardly did anything with it...which is not bad, and getting Geno was smart...but I was wondering if we’d see a bunch of savvy moves from Team Brady, but it’s been more quiet. I wouldn’t call them losers for being ‘quiet’...but I was thinking they could be the big winners trying to get ‘decent’ right away...and they’re taking it slow instead, which may be ‘genius’...but I thought they’d be more active.

-- The Patriots are acting more like what I thought the Raiders would act like. LV and NE, at one time, had the most CAP space to spend. The Patriots got a bunch of instant payoff players on defense...they bought a defense this week. Sure, they overspent...but they had a lot of money and they bought themselves half-a-defense this week -- Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane, Milton Williams, Harold Landry...all walk into the starting lineup day one.

-- The team that’s been the most savvy, by gut feel/without a lot of detailed study of the whole thing yet...it feels like the Chicago Bears.

O-Line, after QB is ‘everything’...and it’s close to the O-Line being ‘everything’ in the modern NFL where everyone has a legit QB -- and the Bears went out and nailed two huge OL moves. Trading for Joe Thuney and landing the ace OL of the class, Drew Dalman. Plus, they traded for Jonah Jackson.

Credit Ben Johnson, and GM Ryan Poles...they are actually DOING something...making trades, signing critical pieces. QB-OL-CB-DT...the four key spots, and Chicago landed three OLs and Grady Jarrett at DT. The Bears raided the Falcons for talent with Jarrett and Dalman, two huge losses for ATL.

OK, enough free agency typing here. I’ll do a video going through the moves individually for reaction sometime today.

-- We need to update the QB bingo card...because a lot of it got filled in on Monday.

Seattle locked in Sam Darnold, as we predicted from our sources over the weekend (the Geno Smith trade was done because they knew they ‘had’ Darnold).

The Jets swerved me, I did not see Justin Fields going there. Tyrod loses a #1 job again...

We got those two QB spots (SEA, NYJ) locked in yesterday. Leaving us with the following available QBs and open jobs...

QBs: Russ, Rodgers...then Dan Jones...then Winston...with Cam Ward as the only rookie likely to be a Week 1 starter.

Teams still lacking a QB, that want them: PIT, NYG, CLE then IND and maybe TEN.

OK, so this is how I’m filling out my remaining QB bingo card today:

NYG and PIT are the ones in hottest QB pursuit, and they are juggling Russ and Rodgers as the logical options.

I’ll project that Russ goes back to PIT. And Rodgers is going to NYG...unless he just hangs them up. If the Steelers miss on Russ or Rodgers, they will go Jameis and plan to draft a QB.

So, Tennessee and Indy are remaining as the ones half-heartedly looking for QBs. I think Tennessee can sit back and try to steal a QB, or swerve away to a Kirk Cousins maybe? The Titans can sit back and do nothing/miss on everything at QB in free agency -- because they can always just draft Cam Ward.

There’s a game of chicken going on with TEN and NYG...on trading of the #1 pick. If NYG signs Russ or Rodgers, the Titans are staying at #1...or possibly swapping with CLE for them to take Ward. The Titans may not have given up on Will Levis, like the media wants us to think. We’ll know more about that by the end of today.

The Giants are in a very vicarious position...they are getting pushed to just sign Rodgers or Russ and thus dropping the offer to move to #1. Tomorrow we should find out how this is going between NYG and TEN as we see what QB either one signs (or doesn’t).

The Browns smartly traded for Kenny Pickett, but that’s not a full answer. I think they will be looking at Jameis coming back, possibly...or the Browns pick a QB round-one, at #2 or trades back to pick one...which would be devastating for them to miss on Ward or Hunter at #2 to fall back and take any remaining rookie QB late 1st/early 2nd-round. But would you expect anything less from the Browns?

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- let the WR run of reports begin!

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news will hit midday.

*The first REWIND report of 2025 hit over the weekend. It’s half State of the Union the FF trade market and half a focus on a Dynasty ‘buy low’.

*The 2.1 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) posted Friday...the Best Ball version will debut this week after WED-THU free agency moves, as well as a top 600 Dynasty update.

The next update will be sometime WED late or THU...after the main chunk of free agency hits, especially waiting on Russ-Rodgers to sign.

MON 3/10

(7:27amET)

Wow, so much news yesterday...and if you thought that yesterday was crazy, get ready for Monday and Tuesday deals ahead of official free agency Wednesday.

As to the Sunday news making deals...

-- DK Metcalf traded to the Steelers for a 2nd-round pick...then gave DKM a 5-year/$150M extension. Pure insanity. This is what most Midwest/Northeast teams without a dome, in a high state tax state, and/or without a legit QB have to do -- no player with options is gonna sign with Pittsburgh or Cleveland or the Giants, etc., so they have to trade for them and overpay for them to stay.

Metcalf sells his soul, which I would do to, for that extension...because this is about the worst offense/offensive coaching staff a WR could go to. DKM earlier listed Houston and the L.A. Chargers as places he wanted to go (franchise QBs and/or dome stadiums)...and he winds up in a place that is the exact opposite of those teams. This won’t end well.

George Pickens’ FF value isn’t helped, but I think the next move is -- the Steelers trade Pickens. I think they’ve essentially decided to swap DKM and pay him versus keeping Pickens and having to pay him. The Steelers have had enough of the Pickens circus...but they oddly brought in a well-funded Metcalf circus. This is not going to end well.

Metcalf’s higher end FF-value hopes are all but snuffed out...and it was already leaking.

Pickens’ FF-value is up in the air because we don’t know where he will be traded to...or if he stays, that's even worse for his value.

And we don’t know who the QB is going to be for the Steelers. This story is incomplete/in progress.

-- Davante Adams gets a 2-year deal for $46M from the Rams...insane. The money seems insane, but the market is speaking.

How much better is 2025 Davante than 2025 Cooper Kupp? Apparently a lot, to the Rams...like $60M+ better? $60M+ is what it projects will cost the Rams to cut/trade Kupp ($17-22M) and sign Davante ($46M)? We don’t know the Davante guarantees yet, so we’ll see how much it is exactly, soon...but it’s a lot of $$$ to make this two-step move. I’m guessing $50M+ in for sure costs to move Kupp and add Adams.

This isn’t great news for Puka Nacua’s FF value...a little bit of a hit, no? Jordan Whittington goes buh-bye for now. They needed to sign Tutu Atwell for 1-yr/$10M...why exactly? You’ll see what we’re projecting for the Rams WR group in our next Dynasty top 600 update.

-- OK, let’s update the QB bingo card going into this week (a changing hourly guessing game)...

We got Geno Smith going to the Raiders, to me...a terrific move -- IN THIS MARKET.

Matt Stafford, smartly, went back to the Rams.

Derek Carr, luckily for him, goes back to the Saints...the Saints had no choice due to their salary cap issues. And...considering the QB market, they really had little choice. The Saints are going to be awful the next two years due, in part, to all their horrific contracts given and salary cap hole...there is almost no way out for them. A lot of cuts, trades, and/or restructures coming. This is why they couldn’t attract a real head coach -- no HC candidate with options would sign their career death certificate to be thrown into that GM-created mess...and the GM who murdered the salary cap/roster is still there...the call is coming from inside the house!

We’ve got Darnold-Rodgers-Fields-Dan Jones-Russ...and Winston...and Cam Ward, to fill the teams with needs.

The teams with perceived or obvious QB needs are: CLE-SEA-NYJ-NYG-PIT...with IND and TEN in some need, but not totally.

One thing about the ‘for sure 5’ teams that need a QB...all outdoor stadiums, high state tax spots, four of them crappy weather Northeast/Midwest teams. If the all these teams, especially the two NY teams, don’t get a dome stadium ASAP...they are gonna keep falling behind, as I said they would 3+ years ago...I predicted that all the Midwest/Northeast teams are gonna die off one-by-one...the only thing saving the good ones (today) is they got an elite QB through the draft (KC, BUF, CIN)...NE, CHI, and GB think they have their QBs, but those QBs are not good enough to overcome their undesirable surroundings to make their organizations great.

Tennessee is the only team in the NFL, currently, working on a new domed stadium (if I have my facts right, trusting Grok 3). Most all the other teams that need it are shying away because of ‘tradition’ or extra cost. Buffalo is building a new monster facility...but decided to not go with a dome, to have the (their words) ‘blizzard weather advantage’. We’ll see how that advantage holds when Josh Allen isn’t there anymore...but fortunately they have many more years to go with that. The Bears and Browns are among teams talking about building a dome stadium.

Anyway, my current bingo card guesstimates at QB based on my latest conversations and/or just pure matchmaking:

CLE = Going to stay at #2 pick...hoping for Cam Ward...hoping TEN stays put at #1 and drafts Travis Hunter. None of the ‘legit’ free agent QBs remaining will willingly go to the Browns, and the Browns have no money/power in free agency now (thanks, Deshaun, Garrett...and a million other mistakes).

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns traded easily into the #1 spot (a swap from #1 to #2) and took Ward...IF the Titans priority is to accumulate assets, but ensures they still get Travis Hunter...the Titans can let CLE take Ward, and TEN will take Hunter #2 and add some kind of assets to make the simple swap. CLE willing to pay a little so that NYG doesn’t jump up there.

What I predict happens here: If no trade with TEN...they’ll sign Jameis Winston back as a placeholder...and draft a QB, whether Ward #2 is there or later Shedeur/Dart/Shough. If Ward goes #1 to TEN, then the Browns draft Hunter #2 and add a QB flier later in the draft.

SEA = Suddenly they find themselves needing a QB...with no QBs available better than what they just rid themselves of. Seattle is dismantling the past and going for a rebuild in a new image.

I’m gonna assume Seattle throws a bunch of money at Sam Darnold in desperation. Klint Kubiak would have worked with Darnold in SF in 2023. I assume the reason Seattle felt good about trading Geno was because they ‘know’ they got Darnold already ‘committed’.

NYG = The Giants lack of aggression and innovation/the lack of a GM with any pulse is about to cost the Giants big-time. They simply have to overtrade for the #1 pick, that they want desperately...but the Titans aren’t so sure that their draft desire, Travis Hunter, would be there at #3.

If NYG doesn’t lock in a trade with TEN Monday...they will have to flail away at the free agent QBs remaining (NoonET today, open/legal negotiations begin). If Darnold is headed to Seattle and will not step foot back in the Meadowlands...the Giants are in HUGE trouble for a plan. They’re left with the desperation play of paying Aaron Rodgers whatever he wants...the only question is -- would Rodgers choose them? OR, more likely, they desperately reach for/sign Russell Wilson...and the fanbase has a collective aneurysm.

PIT = No QB in their right mind wants to play for the Steelers offense, so they can just sign Justin Fields and draft a QB on day two or three. The ‘sell’ of ‘we have Metcalf and Pickens’ will not fool QBs from ignoring the Tomlin/Smith offense factor.

NYJ = Darnold and Rodgers won’t go here, obviously. Tyrod Taylor is as good/better than Justin Fields or Dan Jones...for the moment. That leaves Russ, but I’m guessing they aren’t super excited about it/fine with Tyrod and drafting a QB. The Jets ride with Tyrod and draft a QB day 2-3.

At this stage in our exercise, Aaron Rodgers is still available, as is Daniel Jones. Rodgers goes to the highest bidder between these two...which may ‘lean’ Tennessee. Do you think the Colts management wants Rodgers weekly sharing inside scoop on the Colts to Pat McAfee, who eviscerated Colts management a few months ago?

TEN = Rodgers signed, while Levis develops behind him.

IND = Daniel Jones remains as the ‘competition’ option for Indy to battle Anthony Richardson. Good luck with all that!

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- as we break away from the TE run we’ve been on. This week starts a WR run of scouting reports planned.

*Xavier Cromartie’s top 100 prospects-to-be-drafted list version 1.0 debuts today.

*The first REWIND report of 2025 will hit yesterday. It’s half State of the Union the FF trade market and half a focus on a Dynasty ‘buy low’.

The next update will be sometime THU or FRI...after the main chunk of free agency hits.

The projections include the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Free agency previews, by position, started last week and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code