RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 3/3-3/9 (The Week That Was...)

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 09 March 2025

RC's streaming note board on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

SUN 3/9

(8:07am)

-- Can I re-mention how much I hate the NFL’s hyper focus and overspending/over-drafting of EDGE rushers?

I can only laugh at all the NFL analysts, and scouts, and GMs who are fawning over and daydreaming about a fantastical life with THEIR (the media’s) #1 prospect in the draft, Abdul Carter. Oh, how football wins would tumble in with the great pass rusher!!

Meanwhile...Joey Bosa got cut, Trey Hendrickson is being encouraged to see a trade, Myles Garrett wants out, Chase Young has been a perpetual bust, Montez Sweat ended up a stupid overpay trade for Chicago, Kayvon Thibodeaux is available in trade, and even the holiest of holies...Michah Parsons is whispered to be available in trade.

If pass rushers are SOOOOO important...why are all teams cutting theirs...or allowing them to seek trades...or not extending their ones due/wanting a new deal?

In the face of the NFL getting burned by or just not seeing the value in their existing EDGE rushers...the media and NFL personnel people are just out there fawning over the new batch of ‘rainbows and unicorn’ daydream possibilities of a life with Abdul Carter and James Pearce and Mike Green, etc.

I don’t understand how football people haven’t made the connection on the absolute waste of time and money the hot pursuit of EDGE rushers has become with the daily news of another one being cut or trying to figure out how to dump them, and their contract? But still, every mock draft I read or listen to goes on and on about the great pass rushers in this draft (false) and how supremely important getting a pass rusher is (false).

Do you even know the Super Bowl champions leader in sacks was in the 2024 season...or would you be making an educated guess? It was Josh Sweat...with 8.0 sacks. And likely the Eagles will let Sweat go via free agency this next week...he’ll go to some dopey, bad team with a lot of CAP space that will panic spend on Sweat...and their fans will feel so good about it for the summer...and a year from now they’ll be doing CAP calculations on how to try and rid themselves of the bad contract.

The single dumbest move of 2025 could happen if Cleveland trades Myles Garrett and then drafts Abdul Carter. What’s the point?

-- Another step closer to losing control of the AFC West in 2025...

Yesterday’s headline: Xavier Worthy was arrested Friday evening in Williamson County, Texas on domestic assault charges.

I’m sure this will be swept under the rug eventually...and that Worthy maybe will get a 1-2 game slap on the wrist two years from now -- but outside of that, I have to wonder: Who is running the Chiefs personnel...and do they know what they are doing? Rashee Rice...Xavier Worthy...Marquise Brown...a Kadarius Toney trade a few years ago...these are the personalities that Patrick Mahomes ‘likes’/is suggesting to the Chiefs and/or the Chiefs are vetting? The Chiefs are meeting with these guys ahead of drafts or trades and see no red flags to worry about...or they just don’t care? Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill come to mind as being former stars for the team that have had their issues as well.

The Chiefs collapse to ‘middle class’ NFL team feels like it is underway...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- as we break away from the TE run we’ve been on. Next week starts a WR run of scouting reports.

*The first REWIND report of 2025 will hit today. It’s half State of the Union the FF trade market and half a focus on a Dynasty ‘buy low’.

*The 2.1 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) posted Friday...the Best Ball version will debut this week after WED-THU free agency moves, as well as a top 600 Dynasty update.

The projections include the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

*Our DRD daily series wrapped up last week -- our top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. I will do a different version including the 2025 rookies into it, an early ‘gut’ feel where the DRD is at...and I will do it after we see the Combine data from the weekend. *I will likely do this new DRD mock draft with the 2025 guys in it after free agency, to see what players may have been affected by free agency.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.

SAT 3/8

(6:36amET)

-- I am finishing a lengthy piece, that I will post separately, on the Geno Smith trade. That will post mid-morning. It’s going a lot longer than expected, and I’ve got a breakfast meeting early...so, I’m not ready to put it here...as I thought I would originally.

It’s an analysis you won’t likely see elsewhere.

-- Some stories of interest that you might be interested in:

https://houseofhouston.com/concerning-cj-stroud-report-emerges-after-troublesome-season-01jnkz73j10k

News and quotes from the delusional family:

https://www.si.com/college/colorado/football/deion-sanders-nfl-hating-shedeur-sanders-nfl-draft-colorado-buffaloes-new-york-giants-las-vegas-raiders-quarterback

I'm done talking about the Shedeur thing with as much vigor. Shedeur/Sanders' family reality is settling in the way I thought it should. I'll let the world take it from here for a while.

Shedeur could be headed to the 2nd-round, but I'm sure some team that is poorly run will make a huge mistake (Saints at #9) and draft him 1st-round (or CLE or DAL trades up late 1st).

*Next scouting report is coming Sunday. We are gonna take on some WRs-RBs the next couple of weeks, with some other positions sprinkled in.

*The 2.1 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) posted last night...non-PPR added, the board updated for Kirk, Engram, etc.

The projections include the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

*I started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this weekend, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

FRI 3/7

(8:24amET)

The football moves are starting to happen now...and it’s only going to get wilder and woolier every day next week leading into free agency officially starting next Wednesday, but all the ‘verbal deals’ will leak MON-TUE, and some today + this weekend. An exciting football news, FF-changing week about to happen.

Quick comments on Thursday’s transactions of note...

-- I have no idea why the Rams signed Tutu Atwell to a 1-year/$10M, all guaranteed deal. Not the player...the player is fine, but the money seems ‘unneccessary’.

Tutu really looked good early 2023 season but then got crowded out by Puka + Kupp combining (when Kupp returned from his injury...the injury that launched Puka). Tutu not only faded away behind the duo, he got benched for sudden new starter Demarcus Robinson.

In 2024, Tutu had some moments here and there when Puka was out hurt...but was once again a backup when Puka + Kupp were both playing/healthy with DRob starting.

I’m not sure why the Rams were compelled to push him a 1-year deal, all guaranteed. Seems too high a cost...and he is a good WR, but not one the Rams would’ve ‘missed’. Again, they didn’t want to use him the last 2 years...so why be so desperate for him now?

The Tutu deal forced me to take down the Jordan Whittington numbers yesterday.

-- If I was going to give a player a 1-year/$10M deal...

Evan Engram was released by Jacksonville yesterday. I’m stunned that he was just outright cut and that no team would give the team a 6th/7th-round draft pick to control Engram, instead of allowing him to get to open bidding. Engram instantly becomes the best TE on the open market...by a mile/s.

My guesses on new landing spot:

1) Carolina

2) Indianapolis

3) Denver

4) LA Rams

Engram is a TE1 for 2025...’landing spot’ will change his FF trajectory from where we currently have him in the TE1 group. He’s only 30.5 years old...for a TE, he’s potentially got 2-3 more years of normal performance ahead...so, his Dynasty value can hold as a TE1 as well. Getting cut may make his current owners ‘down’ on him...I’d want to try and make a move on him now, if discounted by his Dynasty owner. Hard to go ‘all in’ when we don’t know the landing spot.

Brenton Strange will now race into the consensus TE1 group. I’m not as excited by Strange + Trevor + Coen offense use of the TE.

-- Christian Kirk traded to the Texans. Houston is paying $15M+ in salary taking on Kirk. All I can do is shake my head at the cost, but getting the player is fine. I wouldn’t pay $15M for it, but Houston thinks they are on the brink...and they are in a flimsy AFC. But they need an O-Line more than mediocre WRs.

Davante Adams and Keenan Allen must be worth $20M+ guaranteed if Kirk is worth $15M+. Stefon Diggs now even more unlikely to return to Houston. He’s about ‘shot’ anyway.

Grok 3.0 info...

Q: what are the financial salary CAP ramifications for both Jacksonville and Houston in their Christian Kirk trade?

A: The trade of wide receiver Christian Kirk from the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Houston Texans, finalized on March 6, 2025, has distinct financial salary cap ramifications for both teams in the 2025 NFL season. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on available data:

Jacksonville Jaguars

Pre-Trade Context: Kirk was entering the final year of a four-year, $72 million contract signed in 2022, with a 2025 cap hit of $24.4 million. This included a $15.5 million non-guaranteed base salary, a $500,000 workout bonus, and additional per-game roster bonuses up to $500,000, alongside unamortized signing bonus money.

Trade Impact: By trading Kirk before June 1, 2025, the Jaguars offloaded his $15.5 million base salary and associated bonuses to the Texans. However, they incurred a dead money charge of $13.65 million in 2025, representing the remaining unamortized portion of his signing bonus accelerated into the current year. This contrasts with an outright release, which would have also resulted in a $13.65 million dead cap hit but without any return.

Cap Savings: The trade generates $10.44 million in cap savings for Jacksonville in 2025. This is calculated as the difference between Kirk’s original $24.4 million cap hit and the $13.65 million dead money hit ($24.4M - $13.65M = $10.75M, though reports consistently cite $10.44M, likely adjusting for minor roster bonus details). This move aligns with the Jaguars’ strategy to trim high-cost veterans, especially after Kirk’s injury-limited 2024 season and the emergence of rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

Houston Texans

Trade Impact: Houston absorbs Kirk’s full 2025 compensation: a $15.5 million non-guaranteed base salary, a $500,000 workout bonus, and up to $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses (approximately $29,411 per game if active for all 17 games). This totals a $16.5 million cap hit for 2025, assuming no roster bonus adjustments or restructuring. Unlike Jacksonville, Houston incurs no dead money from this deal since they didn’t pay the original signing bonus.

Cap Ramifications: With a pre-trade cap space of essentially zero (or slightly negative), absorbing Kirk’s $16.5 million cap hit pushes the Texans further into the red, to approximately -$16.6 million. NFL rules require teams to be cap-compliant by the start of the league year (March 12, 2025), meaning Houston must create at least $16.6 million in cap space through cuts, restructures, or extensions before Kirk’s salary becomes official. For example, they could restructure contracts like Laremy Tunsil’s ($25.9M cap hit) or release high-cap players like Robert Woods ($9.8M hit, $6.9M savings if cut).

Summary

Jaguars: Gain $10.44 million in 2025 cap space, take a $13.65 million dead money hit, and acquire a 2026 seventh-round pick. This trade improves their financial flexibility while moving on from a player no longer central to their plans.

Texans: Incur a $16.5 million cap hit in 2025, worsening their negative cap situation to roughly -$16.6 million, necessitating further roster moves. They bolster their receiving corps at a low draft-pick cost but must act swiftly to become cap-compliant.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report is coming tonight -- my last one of the TE run, for now, on Mason Taylor. A few TEs then we are gonna go on a WR-RB run with some other positions sprinkled in. The scouting report surge is coming, as I finally am finishing the Dynasty top 600.

*The 2.0 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) posted last night...half-PPR added, the board updated for Kirk, Engram, etc. Non-PPR will be connected today.

The projections include the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

*I started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this weekend, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

THU 3/6

(8:51amET)

-- The KC trade/give away of Joe Thuney blew my mind, and set me off on the following rant...

I have no idea what the KC Chiefs are doing as an organization -- how do they keep getting to the Super Bowl? How pathetic is the rest of the AFC? How great is Patrick Mahomes?

There’s a good reason why they got embarrassed in the title game.

The defending AFC champs (KC) had no O-Line, broken down WRs, a could-care-less TE, and the weakest defense they had in years last season. One of the only things they could count on was Joe Thuney...one of the better offensive linemen in the league...and now he’s been traded to Chicago for nearly nothing.

Several thoughts come to mind...

1) The league’s bloodlust for pass rushers and absolute shoulder shrug about the offensive line is the most inexplicable thing to me in all of football theory.

2) The Chiefs have/are in a CAP crunch, again. And thus, they have to move players they don’t want or shouldn’t want to move.

3) They have Patrick Mahomes, God’s gift to QBs...and they have surrounded him with broken down veteran WRs, Xavier Worthy (fine not special), and the looming disaster Rashee Rice.

4) How poorly coached are the Ravens and Bills, when they can’t get past the Chiefs no matter what they do?

5) What a big win for the Bears. The NFC North is going to be a gauntlet.

6) The Packers are gonna make a move for DK Metcalf, like I said last week -- their backs are against the wall. They are gonna feel compelled to do ‘something’ to keep up in this division.

7) If I were Ben Johnson, I would’ve picked any team besides Chicago to go coach...because of the division. He got trapped by the allure of Caleb Williams, I guarantee it. ‘I can fix him...’

Maybe so, but good luck getting past Dan Campbell and Kevin O’Connell over the next few years. Maybe Ben is that good...we’ll see.

-- Kudos to the Eagles for preemptively putting a new deal forward for Saquon Barkley. They didn’t have to; teams rarely are preemptive on these things...because like every big corporate company I have worked for or dealt with -- the GMs (or upper mgt) are almost always cowards.

Why wouldn’t you take care of your elite, key players instead of letting a weak/lesser/underpaid deal in place cause some potential grievances.

Smart, proactive dealing by the defending champs.

In one corporate situation I was in, me working on the finance/operations side, I remember the company I was working for losing its top salesperson from the prior year over such an issue.

A young star salesperson was born, leading the (large) company in sales in his rookie year...and he was radically underpaid just having been given the opportunity. So, come annual raise time, I had proposed preemptively raising him up more to the middle of the pack of salespeople in salary because he was worth it (and more) and assuming we wouldn’t want to lose a young star salesperson. So, when I brought the notion up to my bosses -- they thought it was crazy...they asked, “Did he ask for more money?” I said “No, this was just a good faith reward and making sure we locked in/keep happy our top future talent.” They retorted: “We can’t do that or other people will want more, and then we lose control.” I couldn’t believe the lack of vision...but it wasn’t my final call, so this star rookie salesperson got a 4% raise like most everyone did...a basic cost of living adjustment.

So, of course the annual raises come out on their paychecks and the salesperson finds out that he got a basic raise about the same % bump that everyone in the company did/usually got every year. He was furious. He went to the bosses and said he deserved more salary in the marketplace and angrily laid out his case. The bosses then reluctantly agreed to a 2% more increase but kept telling the salesperson that he makes his money from commissions, so keep selling to make his money.

He agreed, unhappily, to the 2% extra, but the damage had been done...

The salesperson agreed to the small bump but then went from happy future star employee to complete hatred of the company. He set out to talk to our biggest competitor, which quickly hired him at much more money, etc., and he left our company and took about every client he had with him over the span of the next 3-4 years. My company tried to hire him back for more money two years into his systematic taking away all of the company’s key clients. But he wouldn’t even allow them/listen to their offer. All that over like what was a +$2-3,000 extra raise they wouldn’t give him after winning salesperson of the year and bringing him up to the middle class of salesperson pay...they didn’t take my suggestion that the company do something preemptively in this special situation and it costs them hundred of thousands in revenue, in to the millions over 2-3-4 years.

Remember when Saquon was wanting to be paid fairly by the Giants...what did they do? Dragged their feet and didn’t take care of him. As soon as Barkley was free, he left. Do you think the Giants would match the Eagles’ current offer today (2025), if given the chance to get him back? How much ‘other damage’ was done to the Giants’ entire organization for the way they handled that situation?

My corporate/salesperson story doesn’t end there...

Once that salesperson left for greener pastures, he then let our biggest competitor in on who he thought were the top people they could steal from us with ‘more pay’ offers. So, one by one they stole more of our key people. That salesperson called me early on and told me I should join them. I said I wasn’t going to join -- because (I was an idiot) I thought my company had been too good to me...they ‘drafted me’ in a sense, as a young person and ‘given’ me an opportunity. I was loyal because they had been good to me...blind to what part I played in ‘delivering’ results. Then one day/week/month, my bosses pissed me off again and again on various things...and I had that pissed off ‘leaving to join the competitor’ conversation in the back of my mind...so, in anger, I took a meeting with that competitor -- and they changed my life with the opportunity they presented me. An offer I wasn’t even going to listen to because of my ignorance...my sense of loyalty to a company that in reality would’ve cut me the moment it was convenient, etc.

So, I left to go work for the big competitor...and my old company fell apart over the next 5 or so years, one by one people left to go work for the big competitor...all because of one domino falling...because they wouldn’t pay a future star player more salary to get him better paid in the marketplace. Eventually, my new company bought my old company for a fraction of what it was worth prior.

So, yes, the Eagles were smart to preemptively pay Saquon...but it’s not just about paying Saquon/making Saquon happy...it’s so much more in ripple effects.

I’m not saying every player that had a good season needs a giant pay increase, but for the special circumstances...for the ‘special’ players, you gotta be proactive. The NFL rarely is...which is why I point this out and give kudos to the Eagles management.

-- A follow up on the power of Stem Cell injections from Jay Glazer...

https://x.com/jayglazer/status/1894160756754768221?s=43

Who’s ready to contribute to my Go Fund Me to get Stem Cell injections?

-- Coming up on FFM today...

Next scouting report is coming tonight -- my next TE one. A few TEs then we are gonna go on a WR-RB run with some other positions sprinkled in. The scouting report surge is coming, as I finally am finishing the Dynasty top 600.

The 1.0 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) posted last night...just the PPR, the non and half-PPR will be connected today. It includes the top 50+ rookies, the best we know them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

I started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this week, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

Our DRD daily series wrapped up last week -- our top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. I will do a different version including the 2025 rookies into it, an early ‘gut’ feel where the DRD is at...and I will do it after we see the Combine data from the weekend. *I will likely do this new DRD mock draft with the 2025 guys in it after free agency, to see what players may have been affected by free agency.

WED 3/5

(8:50amET)

-- In today’s ‘FF backfields blowing up’ news...

From NBC: Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said the team may look to add a “bigger back with a little more power repertoire” this offseason.

Sounds like Zack Moss is done in Cincy? Last year, what they wanted to do/how they started the season -- was lead with Moss and supplement with Brown. Sounds like that sentiment is still alive in some way?

And this is the type of draft that has ALL the opportunity in the world to draft any kind of RB you’d like...including a bigger back with more power repertoire.

2025 FF RBs: https://youtube.com/shorts/OxqgV-ckn54?si=G-6u8C3TeGdzQvoo

-- In today’s ‘reversal of yesterday’s FF backfields blowing up’ news...

Matthew Berry had this to say report on what he heard/discussed about the Arizona backfield:

I personally asked Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon during his press conference about expectations for Trey Benson in year two and he said how he hopes Benson can light it up in year two and that the Cards would have “two number one backs.” And that quote got a lot of run. And make no mistake, the Cards really like Benson and have high expectations for him. But talking privately with other Arizona sources, that quote may be overblown. James Conner is still the bell cow, still who they trust the most in close, and the kind of running back that NEEDS a lot of touches especially when you get to the fourth quarter. They love James Conner in Arizona. LOVE. I suspect James Conner will once again be very undervalued in fantasy drafts.

My comment on it yesterday, about the pro-Benson comments on Conner (the ‘we have two #1s’ comment) -- my thought was: I’ll believe it when I see it. So, I can totally believe Berry’s opposite side of things over Gannon’s kind words.

For FF 2025, I only want ‘heart & soul’ RBs...the guys connected/eternally...spiritually bonded to their head coach. I think James Conner is still in the ‘heart & soul’ club. BUT any in-season slip up or injury or losing streak can change the direction of the plan -- and that’s where about every RB, save for about 2-4 of them, is going to be at in some way.

...and, I keep saying ‘heart & soul’...because it’s what a few coaches (oddly, to me) said about their main RB last year. When I hear those kind of glowing words/allegiance from a coach about his RB...I’m going to be in FF-love with that RB for the upcoming season.

...however, it did burn me with Zamir White last year. Buyer beware. But mostly it worked out to be true

-- Another ‘heart & soul’ RB from 2024...Bucky Irving. But it’s not about Bucky...it’s about what Bucky’s ‘heart & soul’ status has created -- Rachaad White is about to get traded, I am led to believe.

Where is he going? Look for the Las Vegas Raiders to deal cheap for Rachaad.

Why the Raiders?

Well...who i’s running the Raiders now?

What RB did he most recently love playing with?

The new GM is also from the Buccaneers staff.

If a deal goes down, it doesn’t mean RW is then the LV lead back...he might just be a part of another duo backfield. Might be the lead...might not. All I know, I need Rachaad outta Tampa...and into somewhere he’s respected...like Las Vegas. Rachaad is in his final year of his contract...and set to make $3.2M this season -- he could be outright cut, if not traded.

Our Rachaad stock is dead in Tampa...but sparks back to life (if) in Vegas. Hold those RW lottery tickets a little longer.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

Next scouting report is coming from Ross Jacobs. I am working on my next TE one that could be out late tonight or tomm. Am.

We’re close to launching the 1.0 version of the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debut for 2025...which will include the top the rookies, which are a lot of them. ETA for the debut is tonight but could be THU morning...it’s close to set for a 1.0 version...that we’ll then update all offseason. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March.

Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

I just started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this week, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Player Profiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

TUE 3/4

(7:25amET)

-- There was this mini-bombshell in the news yesterday...

From NBC: Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon said “If [Trey Benson] takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.”

“That’s how I view those guys. You see certain teams out there with two ‘1s,’ I would say, and I think we should have two ‘1s’ next year.”

Well, that’s not the ‘James Conner is the heart & soul of the team’ kinda talk we’re used to from Jon Gannon. I wanna put this in the ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’, BUT it is interesting/comforting (to us Benson owners) to see the coach coming out with a strong/positive statement on Trey Benson.

One by one the main workload RBs are ‘going down’. 25-28+ team’s RBs could all be in duos/committees in 2025...or one bad or injured game or two away from being in them.

The 2025 NFL Draft (and the 2024 Draft) is going to have the following effect (video link below) on all the prior year/s main carry RB workloads and standing on depth charts and game plans in 2025, for all but about 2-3-4 of them: https://youtube.com/shorts/OxqgV-ckn54?si=G-6u8C3TeGdzQvoo

-- The bat signal went out yesterday, bringing Ross Jacobs out to the QB guessing game party -- here’s what Ross’s free agent QB bingo card looks like at the moment (I pitched my theories on yesterday’s RC Notes/below this day’s on this post)

LV-

I previously thought Pete Carroll would have primary control here, but it seems like Brady and Spytek really are running things. That tells me two things. (1) They want to improve quickly while still building smart. (2) They won't spend big on a flimsy QB. Everything leads back to Aaron Rodgers who also seems more interested in winning games than money. He won't have many suitors around the league because of the media drama that follows him, but Brady will have respect for his character and game and can offer him a quick rebuild with Carroll to try and compete.

TEN-

With Vegas out of the running for Darnold, I think his market is going to be a lot softer than many anticipate. Cleveland has no money, he's not going back to the Jets, and the Giants want someone cheap to bridge into a rookie. Also, Tennessee is in desperate need of more picks in the draft and wants to trade down, ideally to 3 where they can still take Abdul Carter. If Darnold's options are Tennessee or returning to Minnesota for less money and knowing he'll be behind McCarthy, I think he goes to Tennessee to start. The Titans can then trade down with the Giants for a couple of mid-round picks.

PIT-

All signs point to them letting Wilson walk and riding with Fields for the time being. They'll probably also bring in Jameis for competition/insurance. Fields is younger and has the support of Arthur Smith (apparently which is weird because Smith had the chance to draft him in 2021 and passed).

NYG-

They want a cheap bridge QB and a rookie. Daboll's offense wants a mobile QB with a strong arm. Who fits the criteria? Russell Wilson who looks likely to be let go by the Steelers. Then they can trade up to #1 for a couple of picks and take Baby Russell Wilson, Cam Ward.

CLE-

The Browns have no money because of Deshaun so they really don't have any other option but to take whoever is left over after TEN/NYG drafts at 1. In this case that means Shedeur Sanders who will be landing in the absolute worst possible spot imaginable for him. Cleveland won't care about the circus as they've taken Manziel and paid Watson a monster guaranteed contract before.

NYJ-

The Jets will try to trade up, but I think they are going to get left out as Tennessee doesn't want to move down too far in the draft, and Cleveland is going to take whoever is left. That means they'll be riding with Tyrod Taylor and someone for a year. Who that someone could be I have no idea. Trey Lance perhaps or maybe they'll draft Jaxson Dart in the early 2nd round.

SEA-

I thought the Seahawks might cut Geno before as his contract is too inflated, but now I think they will reach some nice sounding deal on the surface but one that is totally non-committal and allows them to ditch Geno next year. He has no market to speak of and will likely to be forced to return on Seattle's terms.

NO-

The Saints would really like to designate Carr as a post June 1st cut to save a bunch of money in their cap crunch, but they really don't have any other options to replace him with unless they could convince Geno to come for basically nothing.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

RC’s Next Scouting Report will post ASAP, I think tonight we will see my next scouting report...I’m backed up on post-Combine work at the moment. Next report/s will be a TE...we’re gonna do a TE stretch to compare to Tyler Warren (released 2/26 WED)...then a focus on some WRs.

Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

I just started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this week, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debut for 2025...which will include the rookies. ETA for the debut is this week after the NFL Combine to get the best data in for the rookie projections start point. I’m trying to hit Wednesday for the debut...but it could be Thursday. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March.

MON 3/3

(7:25amET)

OK, the Combine is over...we get like a night to sleep on it, and then the free agent frenzy begins leading up to official FA day March 12.

Let me share a few notes and rumors from discussions with sources who were boots on the ground in Indy. Take them as you will...

-- One of the players ‘heating up’ the most in just general ‘chatter’...the free agent market is showing a lot of interest in Daniel Jones. And that’s so odd...just from the perspective of the Giants flopping with him, the fans hating him, NYG cutting him...but now he’s getting chatter like potential salvation for other teams!

What strikes me odd about that is...if Dan Dimes is really gonna get heat, and then if actually pans out -- you have to fire Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen...if like Dan Jones is the 2024 Sam Darnold of 2025, if he rockets out of the gates the first month and looks like a new/fixed QB a la Darnold...I don’t care if NYG is (4-0) to begin 2025, you have to fire Daboll and Schoen! And Kevin O’Connell gets sainthood for fixing him as a side project. That’s my own twisted logic...and tangent...I don’t how I got off track, but let’s get back on track...

The note is...the Dan Jones market is heating up. Rodgers-Darnold-Russ...then Dimes and Kirk Cousins seem to be the QB free agent ‘interest tiers’.

I project (good for the next 24 hours only) the QB needy teams will matchmake with the following QBs, for fun speculation...

LV = Rodgers

NYG = Moves up to #1 to draft Cam Ward

CLE = Darnold

IND = Dimes (or Jones signs with the Vikings as McCarthy insurance on a 1-year deal...and Indy pivots to Cousins)

NYJ = Sticks with Tyrod, tries to move up to draft Cam Ward but TEN wants the #3 pick more than NYJ’s #7. Drafts a day 2-3 QB.

PIT = Fields and/or Winston added, to battle it out.

TEN = Levis...tries to trade for Browning, tries to bring in Cousins. But I think Cousins goes to SF, if he’s gonna be a backup.

*Tomorrow, I will post Ross Jacobs’ rebuttal to this list/his list...once he reads this, I’ll have his current bingo card sent to me ASAP*

-- A Raiders theory floated to me, by my decent source, but remember this is just a theory based on some smoke he thinks might be ‘a fire’, a direction LV is heading...a theory that is worse case/at least ‘interesting folly’.

It goes a little something like this: LV may look to pull off this trio of signings because once the first domino (Rodgers) falls...

Sign Aaron Rodgers, which is theirs if they want it...and I think they do.

Sign Davante Adams back (who will be cut) because he is linked to Rodgers -- but the Saints/Derek Carr is going to pitch Davante hard (and we both think Adams is headed to NO).

Sign Aaron Jones

The Packers trio may reunite...and then they might sign A.J. Dillon to a league minimum deal with it for good measure (if he is medically cleared).

The Raiders have a ton of CAP space. They can sign themselves into a contender, including enough money to add an OL or two in free agency...but then most of these signings are just for 2025 impact/contracts, and they will not be too beholden for 2026/have nice CAP space for next year.

If they can pull all that off, then a trade of Michael Mayer to NE for their #38 pick (let’s speculate)...then they’d have the #6, #37, #38 (Mayer trade), #69 and #77 (Adams trade in 2024 from NYJ) to go on top of a retooled offense.

Only Las Vegas could pull this off...because of their great CAP position AND the recruiting power of Tom Brady.

-- The 49ers are re-talking to the Steelers about a Brandon Aiyuk trade...which almost happened last year.

Washington is probably out of the running, after the Deebo trade, but not entirely...still wanting that Jayden reunite. Imagine if the Commanders go McLaurin-Aiyuk-Deebo for 2025 as their starting trio vs. McLaurin-Dyami-Zaccheaus in the 2024 NFC title game.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

RC’s Next Scouting Report will post ASAP...I’m backed up on Combine work at the moment. Next report/s will be a TE...we’re gonna do a TE stretch to compare to Tyler Warren (released 2/26 WED).

Free agency previews, by position, started Sunday and will run daily leading up the 3/12 free agency period kickoff.

I just started taking notes and watching tape for the first ‘REWIND’ study for 2025...that report will be out this week, pertinent to Dynasty acquisition consideration before free agency.

Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debut for 2025...which will include the rookies. ETA for the debut the week after the NFL Combine (this upcoming week), to get the best data in for the rookie projections start point. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March.

-- Crumbl Cookie New Week Scouting Report...

Last week, I got a couple Butter Cakes that I nursed all weekend...so-so good. Got the Strawberry Cupcake cookie...not so hot. Tried the Banana Caramel cookie...it was OK. Butter Cake rules!

Grok 3.0’s Crumbl cookie lineup for this upcoming week:

As of 9:03 PM EST on Sunday, March 2, 2025, Crumbl Cookies has announced their lineup for the week of March 3–8, 2025, via a post on X. Here are the cookies featured, along with brief descriptions based on available information and typical Crumbl offerings:

Cookies & Cream Brownie (Dessert of the Month, available all month long): A rich brownie infused with cookies and cream flavor, likely featuring Oreo pieces or a similar cookie crumble, topped with a creamy frosting or ganache for a decadent chocolate treat.
Turtle Cheesecake (New): A creamy cheesecake cookie inspired by the classic turtle dessert, combining caramel, pecans, and chocolate for a sweet and nutty flavor profile.
Frosted Strawberry ft. Pop-Tarts®: A vanilla or sugar cookie base topped with strawberry-flavored frosting, featuring Pop-Tarts® pieces for a nostalgic, fruity, and crunchy twist.
Churro Toffee White Chip (New): A cinnamon-sugar churro-inspired cookie with toffee pieces and white chocolate chips, offering a warm, spiced, and sweet combination.
S’mores: A classic campfire-inspired cookie with a graham cracker base, chocolate chips, and toasted marshmallow topping, delivering a gooey, chocolatey treat.
Cake Batter: A vanilla cake batter-flavored cookie, likely soft and sweet, reminiscent of birthday cake batter, often topped with sprinkles or frosting for added fun.

I’m gonna try to stay away this week, for my own health and weight loss needs. Nothing this week is going to demand my presence like Tres Leche and Butter Cake the past two weeks. I say I’m not going, but...