2022 RC’s Faux/Computer Simulated Season 1.0 (AFC Wild Card Playoffs)

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INTRO:

(Same intro everyday) Four analysts are running their own early models of the 2022 NFL season, as we know it today – looking at the current teams/rosters/starters/depth mixed with the schedule layout.

We will release the simulation results and short commentaries three weeks at a time (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, etc.) by each analyst daily -- and then each analyst will simulate their playoffs all the way up to crowning their early Super Bowl champ. This is pre-work looking for/searching and sharing possible great Over/Under win total bets ahead of the crowd.

The analysts have not seen each other’s simulations…they’ll be seeing them for the first time as the reports release daily for the next 12 days.

Your 2022 Faux 1.0 Analyst Lineup:

Ross Jacobs, FFM analyst (every 8am ET for the entire series)

Xavier Cromartie, long-time contributor/NFL Draft guru (every noonET)

Chris Bilello, Bet the Close Podcast (every 4pmET)

RC Fischer, FFM analyst (every 8pmET)

Hope you enjoy this two-week daily series…it’s all the analyst’s favorite project – one that totally consumes them and drives them mad working on it all, trying to predict the unpredictable…then a major injury will hit in July and/or August and blow all the theories and models all up. But for now, here’s what the analysts are seeing…

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(5) Kansas City at (4) Tennessee

The Chiefs win 54% of the simulations.

The Mahomes advantage is too much to bet against, even with an odd WR group. It’s two good teams with Mahomes as the difference more times than not, even on the road.

(6) Denver at (3) Cincinnati

The Bengals win 64% of the simulations.

Cincy has a better QB…better weapons all-around…and a better defense with home field. Bengals take it from the always dangerous Russell Wilson.

(7) NY Jets at (2) Buffalo

Bills win 88% of the simulations.

My surprise playoff-making NY Jets…the road ends here for the 2022 season. The Bills are far too experienced, and good to fall to the upstarts.

Why did I have the Jets up this high in my projections? It’s based on a breakout season for Zach Wilson…and a surprisingly good/breakout defense.

(1) LA Chargers bye