2022 Chris Bilello (Bet The Close Podcast) Faux/Computer Simulated Season 1.0 (Weeks 16-18)
INTRO:
(Same intro everyday) Four analysts are running their own early models of the 2022 NFL season, as we know it today – looking at the current teams/rosters/starters/depth mixed with the schedule layout.
We will release the simulation results and short commentaries three weeks at a time (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, etc.) by each analyst daily -- and then each analyst will simulate their playoffs all the way up to crowning their early Super Bowl champ. This is pre-work looking for/searching and sharing possible great Over/Under win total bets ahead of the crowd.
The analysts have not seen each other’s simulations…they’ll be seeing them for the first time as the report’s release daily for the next 12 days.
Your 2022 Faux 1.0 Analyst Lineup:
Ross Jacobs, FFM analyst (every 8am ET for the entire series)
Xavier Cromartie, long-time contributor/NFL Draft guru (every noonET)
Chris Bilello, Bet the Close Podcast (every 4pmET)
RC Fischer, FFM analyst (every 8pmET)
Hope you enjoy this two-week daily series…it’s all the analyst’s favorite project – one that totally consumes them and drives them mad working on it all, trying to predict the unpredictable…then a major injury will hit in July and/or August and blow all the theories and models all up. But for now, here’s what the analysts are seeing…
Chris’s Notes:
AFC East
Buffalo finished really strong to put this division way out of reach and grab the top seed (via tie breaker). NE gets the 7 seed and MIA is one of three hard-luck 10-win AFC teams who miss the playoffs while the NFC welcomes the 8-win Saints.
AFC North
Baltimore wins the division and grabs the 3 seed, the 10-win Bengals miss the playoffs which isn’t too crazy of an idea based on their current odds to make the playoffs (yes -135/No +110). I would have guessed higher to make it.
AFC South
Yuck
AFC West
As everyone knows this division is the new NFC West. I have Denver on top grabbing the 2 seed and the Chargers and Chiefs joining the playoff party as the 5 and 6 respectively.
AFC
- BUF
- DEN
- BAL
- IND
- LAC
- KC
- NE
NFC East
The Eagles (+210 to win the division) hung on by a game to get the 3 seed. Dallas with 12 wins doesn’t even get a home playoff game as the 5 seed.
NFC North
I wasn’t scientific about breaking the tie at the top of the division with the 11-win Vikings and Packers, I gave it to MIN despite the market heavily favoring GB for the division. A McVay disciple on offense and a Fangio disciple on defense…what could go wrong?!
NFC South
It’s the top seeded Bucs and no one else
NFC West
I have SF winning the division and the Seahawks locking down the #1 draft pick. I have to admit that I’m not sure what happened with the Rams. I just went back through their schedule and counted 10 wins but when I did it week by week (7-10). If I were a betting man, I would not take NO over LAR to make the playoffs.
NFC
- TB
- SF
- PHI
- MIN
- DAL
- GB
- NO
AFC East W L PCT
BUF … 14 - 3 = 0.824
NE …. 11 - 6 = 0.647
MIA … 10 - 7 = 0.588
NYJ … 9 - 8 = 0.529
===============
AFC North W L PCT
BAL … 12 - 5 = 0.706
CIN … 10 - 7 = 0.588
CLE … 8 - 9 = 0.471
PIT … 4 - 13 = 0.235
===============
AFC South W L PCT
IND … 7 - 10 = 0.412
TEN … 7 - 10 = 0.412
JAX … 4 - 13 = 0.235
HOU … 2 - 15 = 0.118
===============
AFC West W L PCT
DEN … 14 - 3 = 0.824
LAC … 13 - 4 = 0.765
KC …. 12 - 5 = 0.706
LV … 10 - 7 = 0.588
===============
NFC East W L PCT
PHI … 13 - 4 = 0.765
DAL … 12 - 5 = 0.706
NYG … 8 - 9 = 0.471
WSH … 4 - 13 = 0.235
===============
NFC North W L PCT
GB …. 11 - 6 = 0.647
MIN … 11 - 6 = 0.647
DET … 6 - 11 = 0.353
CHI … 5 - 12 = 0.294
===============
NFC South W L PCT
TB …. 15 - 2 = 0.882
NO …. 8 - 9 = 0.471
ATL … 3 - 14 = 0.176
CAR … 3 - 14 = 0.176
===============
NFC West W L PCT
SF …. 14 - 3 = 0.824
LAR … 7 - 10 = 0.412
ARI … 4 - 13 = 0.235
SEA … 1 - 16 = 0.059
