2026 NFL Draft/Dynasty Scouting Report: QB Diego Pavia, Vandy

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 23 April 2026

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Diego Pavia, Vandy

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

The scouting/draft argument against Diego Pavia is a little crazy when you dig into it. I say ‘against’ because he is tracking as a day three, more late-day-three draft pick with some projections for him to go undrafted.

Why such a terrible projection with such a great performance in college football? We all know why…

1) He’s too short

2) He’s too ‘wild’/’unhinged’

And those were my exact thoughts the first time I began studying the scouting case of Diego Pavia...I had already pre-made up my mind going into his study.

What it is NOT...it cannot be because of production issues, because Pavia was really good for two years in a power D1 conference. And he was visibly better and more successful than Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier, among others, in said power conference. He almost won the Heisman Trophy. People cannot make a case that he wasn’t successful at Vanderbilt

In fact, the reality of him being successful at a D1 college football program that has almost never been successful in our lifetime is worth even more consideration. ‘So what’ that Ty Simpson had a decent season at Alabama. Every Alabama quarterback has a decent season at Alabama. There’s five-star-everything surrounding Crimson Tide QBs especially on the offensive line. Not as much for Vanderbilt. But when they (Vandy and ‘Bama) went head-to-head, Pavia found a way to get his team to defeat Goliath in his first year in the SEC/his second ever SEC game. And it wasn’t because of somebody else on Vandy, it was strictly Pavia putting the team on his back and leading them to victory.

If a quarterback of any size had the career trajectory of Diego Pavia they would be a first-round draft pick projection in most circumstances, especially in a year where the quarterback talent in the draft pool isn’t as deep. Yet, a lot of people think Pavia won’t even get drafted this year.

It’s not production...which means it’s all about his size and his personality. Baker Mayfield had the same issue.

First off, let’s just stop with the size issue. If you think Pavia is too short to be drafted high or succeed...how do you explain Bryce Young?

5’10.1”/204, 9.75” hands, 30.5” arms, 73.5” wing = Bryce Young

5’10.1”/203, 9.63” hands, 28.6” arms, 73.5” wing = Diego Pavia

They’re essentially the same human, size-wise. So why is Pavia ‘too short’ and Bryce Young was ‘generational’?

Compare their final college seasons...

64.5% Comp. Pct., 277.3 pass yds per game, 32 TDs/5 INTs, 4 rush TDs (36 total TDs) = Bryce

70.6% Comp. Pct., 272.2 pass yds per game, 29 TDs/8 INTs, 10 rush TDs (39 total TDs) = Diego

They both succeeded in the SEC. Young did so with ALL the advantages...coaching staff, 5-star everything around him, elite defense, Jahmyr Gibbs transferred in. Pavia took the worst team in the SEC the last decade/century and put up numbers and won games. Pavia beat Alabama (breaking a 60-game losing streak to them for Vandy) and beat LSU in his two years in the SEC...and it wasn’t because of some superior surroundings of talent. Pavia literally carried an entire team to heights it has never seen in eons in the world’s toughest football conference. How is this meaningless? How is this ‘UDFA’ material?

Oh, it’s because Pavia is a jerk/weird. Hey, Makai Lemon is weird...and he’s gonna go first round. David Bailey stomped on a defenseless player’s head...he’s gonna go #2 overall. Rueden Bain can’t drive...he’s going top 10-15. Yet, Pavia...who has accomplished more than almost any player in this draft in all their college careers...he’s too toxic. Really?

If it wasn’t for that Heisman night stupidity (flipping the bird/dropping F-bombs in protest of losing the Heisman after the ceremony)...there would be no real case against Pavia.

Before I get into his persona/character, let me just talk scouting of his abilities for a moment. Let’s keep comparing him to Bryce Young...

Both Pavia and Bryce have below average to average arms. I’d give Pavia the edge. They can both throw the ball well enough to succeed in the SEC and the NFL, but they don’t have laser beam arms...but you don’t need to have that in the NFL if you have all the other gifts of vision and timing, etc.

Bryce is a super smart QB that thrives under NO pressure, and wilts fast under pressure. Pavia literally thrives on pressure like no QB that I’ve seen since college Baker Mayfield (who was also considered too toxic). Pavia is a leader of men. Bryce Young is not a leader; he’s a nice guy.

Pavia is not clocked the fastest runner, but he runs well on the field because he runs with reckless abandon because he is not afraid/has uber-confidence...thus Pavia ran for 800+ yards in back-to-back seasons in the SEC. The ‘dainty’, skittish running Young posted just 81 and 185 yards rushing his final two college seasons.

Diego Pavia is the FAR superior version of Bryce Young IN. EVERY. WAY...except for who is the nicest to have a quiet dinner with.

Talent, size, arm...none of that is the issue with Pavia. It’s all down to people trying to link him to ‘next Johnny Manziel’, which is mostly nonsense. Pavia was a way better traditional passer than Manziel and Pavia has a WAY better head on his shoulders than Manziel. But they both act like arrogant asses sometimes...which is what got Shedeur Sanders to fall from the 1st-round to the 5th. Manziel and Shedeur had a ‘silver spoon’ worrisome arrogance. Pavia has a junkyard dog arrogance, which is born from fighting everyone (media and otherwise) everyday his whole football life.

Pavia is a better QB than Shedeur...the better QB, better personality and mental IQ. I say that, and Shedeur was not too overwhelmed by rookie year play with the worst O-Line in the history of football.

Pavia DID act like an ass on Heisman night when he lost the award. There’s no defending that, but that’s all anyone’s got against him...and in the context of all the ‘bad boys’ of current and past college football, that wasn’t that bad.

I think Pavia’s real issue is two-fold, and both an ‘NFL issue’ (as in...it’s the NFL’s own issue)...

1) Pavia was not supposed to be this good. When a no-star short guy makes New Mexico State a winner and beats the likes of Auburn -- you must be punished for making all of the football media and the NFL’s and CFB’s and HS’s terrible scouting system look bad.

And then that ‘little runt’ goes to the SEC and beats the big boys! That cannot stand. We have to make excuses or ignore it. The NFL/CFB has been doing that to players that buck the system for years. Alabama has a giant budget to ‘promote’ their draft eligible players. And sometimes when you’re ‘pushing’ Alabama and Georgia players, you must also ‘tar and feather’ their competition.

2) NFL head coaches are weak, by and large. They don’t want the players talking back to them or questioning them...so, the polite Mendoza and Simpson are beloved/desired. Pavia is a junk yard dog they’re afraid of...afraid they ‘can’t control’ or intimidate. Afraid they can’t go golfing with them. Afraid they can’t have their ass-kissed all day by them at the team facilities. BUT there are some coaches with strong spines who would love Pavia’s attitude...and he has a great attitude. Pavia is smart, loyal, tough as nails, a tireless worker...but he also negotiated his own NIL at Vandy and is representing himself in the NFL -- and the NFL establishment HATES that!! He doesn’t take shit off no one. Most NFL coaches don’t like it, but some will.

My case for Pavia, who I think has at least an argument to be debated as ‘better than Mendoza’ (I really do think that, and I really like Mendoza)...

The size stuff is bullshit.

The production was as good as any SEC QB of the past decade.

He is ‘weird’ at times and strong willed, but I think you’d rather have a street fighter than a wallflower (like Bryce Young and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trevor Lawrence) at the NFL level. Tom Brady is also weird...gets weirder by the year, but one person’s weird is another person’s ‘uber-passionate’. I want Brady’s ‘weird’...I want Baker Mayfield’s ‘strong will’.

Pavia is gonna be a legit NFL QB...only any partying lifestyle could bring him down, but I don’t think that’s happening here...no more than most any other QB. People mistake Pavia’s ‘chip on his shoulder’ and ‘strong will’ for ‘he’s a problem child’. It’s a mistake to do so. But most NFL head coaches are totally spineless humans who love it when the players are subservient to them.

You could literally skip my entire scouting report here and I could just point you to a video (one that I have prior). One of the best ‘scouting’ videos of what a player is like and insight on what certain head coaches will think of Pavia and a great video/interview to learn more of Pavia’s background and mindset can be found in the Jon Gruden QB camp 1+ hour show. You should watch it...it’s one of the best, most honest football things I’ve seen in years.

Link here: https://youtu.be/1a_OkLsC-NQ?si=lMFJkW9ykUiXoAkj

Direct quotes from the Jon Gruden QB Camp and insiders regarding Pavia.

Jon Gruden (Head Coach/Analyst): "The guy finds ways to put points on the board, make plays, win games... he has that wrestling mentality as a quarterback." [00:10]

Jon Gruden: "I've coached guys that are 6'5 and guys that are 5'5. I want a guy that can fucking play. Go watch the tape." [02:54]

Diego Pavia (On his playstyle): "I don't care what anybody thinks. At all costs, I'm going to win... I believe I'm the best and I can make any type of throw." [00:40]

Diego Pavia (On his journey): "I was a negative four-star. Nobody wanted me. I love the situation I'm in; I wouldn't change my journey." [03:20]

Dr. Chao (Medical Update - Proj.): "Pavia is a 'medical marvel' for the volume of hits he absorbs. Despite lower-body contusions and shoulder issues, his availability remains elite."

Jon Gruden: "Whatever coach gets [Pavia] is going to get a Super Bowl... find a way to get him on your team." [01:09:02]

Diego Pavia, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

Top 10 Achievements of Diego Pavia's Career

Diego Pavia’s collegiate career is defined by historic "firsts" and massive upsets. Here are the 10 most significant milestones, games, and honors from his time at NMMI, New Mexico State, and Vanderbilt.

1. 2025 Heisman Trophy Runner-Up

Pavia became the first player in Vanderbilt history to be named a Heisman Trophy finalist. In a historic ceremony that featured two Latino finalists for the first time ever, Pavia finished as the runner-up to Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. This achievement cemented his status as the most impactful player to ever wear a Commodore uniform.

2. 2025 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Winner

Pavia was named the nation’s top upperclassman quarterback, winning the prestigious Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. He beat out a field of established Power 4 starters by leading the SEC in passing efficiency (170.4) and total offensive production during the 2025 season.

3. The "Giant Killers": Upset of No. 1 Alabama (2024)

In October 2024, Pavia orchestrated the greatest win in Vanderbilt history. He completed 80% of his passes and accounted for multiple touchdowns in a 40–35 stunner over No. 1 Alabama. It was Vanderbilt's first-ever win over a top-ranked opponent and snapped a 60-game losing streak against AP top-five teams.

4. 2025 SEC Offensive Player of the Year

Pavia swept the conference honors in 2025, being named SEC Offensive Player of the Year by both the coaches and the Associated Press. He led the league in completion percentage (70.6%), yards per attempt (9.4), and total touchdowns, transforming a perennial cellar-dweller into a 10-win program.

5. 2021 NJCAA National Championship (NMMI)

Before the FBS glory, Pavia led New Mexico Military Institute to its first national title in 67 years. He threw 21 touchdowns to just 1 interception all season. His performance in the 31–13 championship win over Iowa Western was so dominant it famously convinced Jerry Kill to offer him a scholarship on the spot.

6. The Auburn "Heisman Pose" Game (2025)

In a season-defining performance against No. 18 Tennessee in 2025, Pavia accounted for 433 yards of total offense (268 passing, 165 rushing) in a 45–24 victory. After scoring his final touchdown, he famously struck the Heisman pose in Neyland Stadium, a moment that went viral and solidified his national candidacy.

7. 2023 CUSA Offensive Player of the Year

At New Mexico State, Pavia led the Aggies to their first 10-win season since 1960. He was named the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year after totaling nearly 3,900 yards of offense and leading the team to a historic road upset of Auburn—the program’s first-ever win over an SEC opponent.

8. 2025 First-Team All-American

Pavia was a unanimous First-Team All-American selection (AP, Sporting News, FWAA) in 2025. He joined an elite list of quarterbacks to earn the honor while also leading their team in rushing yards (862), showcasing his dual-threat dominance at the highest level of college football.

9. Single-Season School Records (Vanderbilt)

During the 2025 campaign, Pavia systematically dismantled the Vanderbilt record books. He set new single-season highs for:

Passing Yards: 3,539
Passing Touchdowns: 29
Total Offense: 4,401 yards
Completion Percentage: 70.6%

10. 2022 Quick Lane Bowl MVP

In his first year at the FBS level, Pavia led New Mexico State to a bowl victory over Bowling Green. Despite a mid-game injury, he returned to clinch the win and was named Bowl MVP, signaling the start of his streak of three consecutive bowl victories across two different programs.

Injury History & Character

Pavia is regarded as a "medical marvel" by some because of the sheer volume of hits he takes without missing significant time. In 2022, a hamstring injury against Valparaiso threatened his season, but he returned just weeks later to win Bowl MVP. In 2023, he managed a shoulder issue through the final four games of the season, and in 2024, he suffered a significant lower-body contusion against Texas that most players would have sat out for, yet he started the following week.

His character is polarizing. To his teammates, he is the "ultimate teammate" who would take a bullet for the locker room. To opponents and some media members, he has been viewed as a "villain" or a "heel," specifically following his public comments about the Heisman race and his "I don't care about clickbait" stance. However, off-field issues are non-existent; his "controversies" are strictly related to his fiery personality on the gridiron. He is highly active in community service in both Las Cruces and Nashville, and his academic record is impeccable.

All-Star Games, Combine & Pro Day

Pavia’s pre-draft cycle was a mission to prove he wasn't just a "system" or "scramble" quarterback.

The Senior Bowl: Pavia was the "alpha" of his squad. While he struggled initially with the elite speed of NFL edge rushers, by the third day of practice, he was the most efficient quarterback on the field. Coaches were impressed by how quickly he mastered a pro-style playbook.

The Combine: Pavia officially measured in at 5'10 1/8. While the height was expected, his 9.63" hands were a major plus, as they are larger than several 6'4 QBs in the draft. He opted to run at his Pro Day instead of the Combine.

Pro Day: He clocked a 4.76s 40-yard dash. While not "elite" speed, his 10-yard split was impressive, confirming his "short-area" explosiveness. His throwing session was described as "compact and efficient," showing improved footwork and the ability to drive the ball through 20mph winds.

College Career Statistics

New Mexico Military Institute (2020-2021)

In his two years at the JUCO level, Pavia played in 22 games. He completed 189 of 323 passes for 2,644 yards, throwing 31 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. He added 1,107 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground, culminating in the 2021 National Championship.

New Mexico State (2022-2023)

Over 27 games for the Aggies, Pavia completed 322 of 556 attempts (57.9%) for 4,423 yards, with 39 passing touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His rushing impact was massive, totaling 1,431 yards and 13 touchdowns on 258 carries. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his NMSU career.

Vanderbilt (2024-2025)

In his final two seasons, Pavia appeared in 26 games. He completed 444 of 676 passes (65.7%) for 5,832 yards, 49 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions. He set the Vanderbilt record for quarterback rushing with 1,663 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. In his 2025 Heisman-runner-up season alone, he threw for 3,539 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing 70.6% of his passes.

FBS Career Totals (NMSU & Vandy)

Games Played: 53

Pass Completions: 766

Pass Attempts: 1,232

Completion Percentage: 62.2%

Passing Yards: 10,255

Passing Touchdowns: 88

Interceptions: 27

Rushing Yards: 3,094

Rushing Touchdowns: 31

Total Offense: 13,349 Yards

Total Touchdowns: 119

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Diego Pavia Most Compares Within Our System:

Pavia is a way more aggressive Bryce Young. Pavia is more like John Wolford (small, scrappy, quick), but only way better of a QB talent.

Looking back at Johnny Manziel...a gunslinger, a runner...some things in common with Pavia, but Manziel was a sloppy, bad passer; he took too many erratic chances throwing downfield...because he sucked at it, honestly. Pavia is a WAY headier QB. Manziel threw a ton of screens, because his coaches were trying to keep him from his bad downfield throwing. Pavia is more open, normal passer.

Pavia is simply better than everyone on this list.

QB-Grade	LJax Rating	Last	First	Yr	College	H	W	Adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	Adj Pass per TD	Adj Pass Per INT
7.578	7.20	Pavia	Diego	2026	Vandy	5	10.0	207	66.6%	13.1	17.6
7.011	4.22	Young	Bryce	2023	Alabama	5	10.1	204	61.7%	13.0	17.0
5.660	5.89	Wolford	John	2018	Wake Forest	6	0.0	200	66.0%	12.8	14.3
8.113	7.89	Watson	Deshaun	2016	Clemson	6	1.5	210	64.0%	11.5	16.8
2.784	2.89	Woodside	Logan	2018	Toledo	5	11.2	213	63.3%	12.8	18.0
2.271	8.27	Manziel	Johnny	2013	Texas A&M	6	2.0	200	68.2%	11.0	22.6

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2023, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.

**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

***(change/tweak Feb. 2024) A score of 7.0+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL plausible with hopes of being good-to-great. A scouting score of 8.5-9.0+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

2026 NFL Draft Outlook:

Consensus tracking as the 10th+ ranked QB in the class...a 7th-round/UDFA type ick, which is totally insane but probably true. Although, I would not be shocked if a team took him 3rd or 4th-round to everyone’s surprise. When/if teams take Beck and Allar and Nussmeier types over Pavia, the GM and head coach should be fired 10 seconds later.

NFL Outlook:

I think Pavia will go top 100-200 to a team that really respects/desires him...like a Dan Campbell or Aaron Glenn. He’d be a perfect #2 behind Malik Willis to develop behind and possibly takeover. Carolina has met with him and I could see Pavia taking Bryce’s job by mid-rookie season, seriously.

This would be Bruce Arians ‘Baker 2.0’ kinda guy.

I’d say Carolina and Tampa along with Detroit and NYJ are the contenders here. Tampa would be my bet...perfect to absorb from Baker.

Per GEMINI (on pre-Draft visits):

Diego Pavia's pre-draft cycle has been defined by his decision to represent himself (no agent) and his polarizing, high-energy personality. While he is managing his own schedule, several specific meetings and visits have been confirmed as the 2026 NFL Draft approaches.

Confirmed Team Meetings & Visits

Carolina Panthers (Top 30 Visit): Pavia visited the Panthers' facility in mid-April 2026. This was a "Top 30" visit, which included formal interviews and a medical evaluation. The Panthers are reportedly doing extensive homework on dual-threat backups, hosting Pavia alongside other mobile prospects like Haynes King and Behren Morton.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Top 30 Visit/Meeting): Pavia has been heavily linked to Tampa Bay following a meeting during the pre-draft cycle. Analysts have identified the Buccaneers as a "best fit" destination, where Pavia could mentor under Baker Mayfield—a player with a similar "undersized underdog" narrative.

NFL Scouting Combine (Formal Interviews): Pavia was a full participant in the 2026 Combine in Indianapolis (February 23 – March 2). While the specific list of all 45 teams he spoke with is not fully public, he was confirmed to have run drills and conducted formal interviews with several quarterback-needy teams looking for "high-floor" backups.

Jon Gruden (Private Session/QB Class): While not an "official" team meeting, Pavia met with former NFL head coach Jon Gruden for a "QB Class" session in early April. Gruden notably advised Pavia on how to handle being "snubbed" by teams, drawing parallels to his coaching of fifth-round pick Rich Gannon.

Because Pavia is representing himself (forgoing an agent to save the 3% commission), he has been speaking directly with NFL GMs and front offices. Reports indicate he has been "vocal" in these calls, which has impressed some teams with his business acumen but led others to label him as "difficult to manage" due to his outspoken nature regarding his draft stock and Heisman snub.

At Diego Pavia's Pro Day, held on Friday, March 20, 2026, in Nashville, several teams stood out for their level of engagement with the Heisman runner-up. While personnel from over 20 teams attended to see Pavia and standout tight end Eli Stowers, three organizations showed the most concentrated interest.

Teams Showing the Most Interest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers sent a significant contingent, including high-level scouting personnel, to watch Pavia’s throwing session. The team has been linked to Pavia throughout the cycle as a potential developmental successor or high-end backup for Baker Mayfield. Scouts were reportedly seen speaking extensively with Pavia regarding his transition to a more traditional pro-style footwork.

Carolina Panthers: Having already hosted Pavia for a Top 30 visit, the Panthers’ presence was notable. They focused heavily on his 40-yard dash (4.76s) and his short-area explosiveness. Sources indicate Carolina views Pavia as a unique "scout team" asset who could also compete for a roster spot due to his experience against elite SEC defenses.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers showed significant interest in Pavia's dual-threat mechanics. Known for valuing high-character, "tough" players, Pittsburgh scouts spent time after the workout interviewing Pavia’s center, Steven White, to gauge his leadership style and how he manages the huddle under pressure.

======================================================

GEMINI Research Notes and Consensus Scouting Report Take

Diego Pavia | Vanderbilt | QB Scouting Preview

Player Profile

Name: Diego Pavia
College: Vanderbilt (via New Mexico State and New Mexico Military Institute)
Position: Quarterback
Height: 5'10 1/8 (Official 2026 Combine)
Weight: 207 lbs
Hand Size: 9.63" (9 5/8")
Arm Length: 28.63" (28 5/8")
Wingspan: 73.50"
Projected 40-time: 4.76s (Official Pro Day)
Age: 24 (Born February 16, 2002)

Personal Bio

The story of Diego Pavia is rooted in the "life of an underdog" mentality, a phrase he frequently uses to describe his path from a zero-offer high school senior to a Heisman finalist. Born in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Pavia was raised in a single-parent household by his mother, Antoinette Padilla, a nurse whom he credits for his relentless discipline and work ethic. Growing up in a house with three siblings—Roel Jr., Javier, and Abrielle—Pavia was forced to compete for everything. This internal fire translated to the athletic field at Volcano Vista High School, where he became a legendary figure in New Mexico prep sports.

Pavia was not just a football star; he was a three-sport standout in baseball and wrestling. His wrestling background is perhaps the most critical element of his "bio" as it explains his unique physical playstyle on the football field. He was a three-time state finalist on the mat, eventually winning a state championship. His balance, leverage, and ability to absorb contact without going down are direct carry-overs from his time as a championship wrestler. Despite being offered a partial scholarship to wrestle for a powerhouse program like Nebraska, Pavia’s heart was set on being a Division I quarterback—a dream that scouts at the time deemed impossible due to his 5'10 frame.

When the FBS offers never materialized, Pavia refused to accept a move to a different position. He enrolled at the New Mexico Military Institute (NMMI), a grueling environment that further hardened his character. He describes his time at NMMI as a turning point where he learned to "block out the noise" and focus strictly on his process. This period solidified his "alpha" leadership style; he isn't a quiet "lead by example" type, but a vocal, often polarizing commander who demands total buy-in from his teammates. Off the field, Pavia is a man of deep faith, often stating that he doesn't care about media "clickbait" because he believes God has a specific plan for his career. He graduated from New Mexico State with a degree in Individualized Studies and transitioned to graduate-level work at Vanderbilt, maintaining a strong academic standing throughout his multiple transfers.

College Career Summary

Pavia’s collegiate journey is a three-act play that saw him conquer every level of the game. At New Mexico Military Institute (2020–2021), he survived the COVID-disrupted seasons and eventually led the Broncos to the 2021 NJCAA National Championship. His performance in that title game is the stuff of coaching legend: New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill and OC Tim Beck were at a Hooters watching the game on TV, intending to scout and offer the opposing quarterback. However, Pavia’s dominance was so undeniable—throwing for 21 touchdowns with only one interception all season—that Kill famously told Beck they were recruiting the wrong guy. They offered Pavia instead.

At New Mexico State (2022–2023), Pavia executed one of the swiftest program turnarounds in modern history. In 2022, he earned Quick Lane Bowl MVP honors after a gritty win over Bowling Green. By 2023, he had elevated the Aggies to a 10-win season, their best since 1960. The definitive moment of this era was a road thrashing of Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Pavia finished 2023 as the CUSA Offensive Player of the Year, totaling 3,896 offensive yards and 33 combined touchdowns. Despite his success, critics claimed he was a "big fish in a small pond," leading Pavia to transfer to Vanderbilt to test himself in the SEC.

At Vanderbilt (2024–2025), Pavia became a national phenomenon. In 2024, he led the Commodores to an upset of No. 1 Alabama, the first such win in program history. He followed that up with a historic 2025 campaign, leading Vanderbilt to a program-record 10 wins and a No. 14 ranking in the final CFP standings. He decimated SEC defenses with his legs and a newfound efficiency in the intermediate passing game, completing over 70% of his passes as a senior. He swept the major honors, winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, being named a First-Team All-American, and finishing second in the Heisman Trophy voting. By the time he left Nashville, he held the school records for career rushing yards by a quarterback, single-season passing yards, and single-season passing touchdowns.

Coaching Perspectives: The Good & The Bad

The Good:

Coaches who have worked directly with Pavia, most notably Jerry Kill and Clark Lea, speak of him in almost mythical terms regarding his competitiveness. Clark Lea has stated that Pavia "changed the DNA" of the Vanderbilt locker room, bringing a level of belief and "standard" that hadn't existed in decades. Coaches rave about his "Pressure-IQ"—his ability to remain calm when a play breaks down and find a solution. Assistants have noted that Pavia is often the smartest person in the room regarding defensive fronts and blitz pickups, often checking into the correct protection before the coach even sees the look from the sideline. His toughness is also a major talking point; Jerry Kill famously noted that Pavia would have to be "carted off" before he’d ever voluntarily leave a game.

The Bad:

The critiques from coaches often center on his "wild-horse" nature. There have been instances where Pavia "crossed the line" in practice, becoming overly aggressive with teammates or showing up coaches during heated moments. Clark Lea admitted he had to "humble" Pavia at times, reminding him that his "frontal lobe isn't fully developed" and that his confidence could veer into arrogance if not checked. Some scouts have heard from former staffers that Pavia can be "difficult to manage" because he plays with such high emotion that he can be resistant to coaching on the finer mechanics of the position. He has also been described as "impatient" in the pocket, sometimes frustrating offensive coordinators by bailing on a clean pocket to scramble when the primary read was actually coming open.