1) Las Vegas Raiders - QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
One of the most guaranteed first picks we’ve ever seen behind only Andrew Luck to the Colts and Joe Burrow to the Bengals. There’s nothing else to say.
2) New York Jets - LB Arvell Reese, Ohio St
Nothing new to add here. Everyone has sold themselves on the idea that Reese has all these special traits that can be developed and ignoring the fact that he’s just not that good and has never played the position he’ll be moving to full time. He’ll go ahead of the superior player, David Bailey, because he’s supposedly better against the run.
3) Arizona Cardinals - EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech
Offensive tackle is a very popular choice here, and I totally understand why. Right tackle is the weakest position on the team. But most teams don’t draft to fill their biggest weakness. They draft the best player at a position of weakness. And since edge rusher is also a weak point, and I believe Bailey should have a higher grade than either of the top two tackles, I think he is the most likely choice at this juncture.
Of course the Cardinals have been very trade happy under Monti Ossenfort, so that is something to consider as well. They could trade down with someone looking to jump the Titans for Jeremiyah Love and then take the tackle still on the board.
4) Tennessee Titans - RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
I’m on board with the newest trend of sending Love to the Titans. It’s stupid, but many of these teams still haven’t learned their lesson about wasting high picks on running backs. The Titans have holes all over their roster, but Love is likely to be the selection because he’ll have the highest raw grade still available.
5) New York Giants - OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami
If Jeremiyah Love was somehow still on the board, for example the Cardinals took a tackle and the Titans took Bailey, I believe the Giants would run to the podium for Love. They want to build a deep and powerful running game, and even though Cam Skattebo proved valuable last year, he doesn’t have a lot of explosiveness and there’s the lingering concussion issue.
However, Love might not even make it to the 5th pick, so I have the Giants simply taking the next highest rated player to help finish off their offensive line rebuild. Mauigoa is a great run blocker and can start at guard as a rookie and eventually take over at right tackle.
6) Cleveland Browns - OT Spencer Fano, Utah
The Browns have two massive needs at wide receiver and offensive tackle, but as much as everyone wants this pick to be Carnell Tate, I think there is a 0% chance of that for a couple reasons. One, offensive tackle is more important than receiver and you can get good receivers later. And two, Tate is just not the caliber of wide receiver prospect to go in the top 10.
Tackle is the far more likely pick, whichever of Mauigoa or Fano the Giants don’t take. Mauigoa is a better fit for the power style that Harbaugh wants, so Fano it is for the Browns.
7) Washington Commanders - CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
You would have to think the Commanders pick will be on the defensive side of the ball given how old and bad they were in 2025, and easily the best remaining prospect by NFL standards is Delane. Rueben Bain is a solid player, but he doesn’t have the traits teams typically want in the top 10. Delane does, good size and strength, fast, and smooth. He’s not the greatest cornerback prospect I’ve ever seen (and I think McCoy might be better), but he’s good enough and safe enough to go highly in this weak class.
8) New Orleans Saints - EDGE Rueben Bain, Miami
I know I just said Bain doesn’t have the kinds of traits teams want in the top 10 but…this class is so weak at the top that he still might grade out as the next highest rated player and at a position that teams covet above everything except QB.
The Saints are well positioned to take just about anything, but receiver and edge rusher are at the top of their list. I don’t believe any of the receivers is likely to go this high, and Delane will be in play if he gets past the Commanders, but Bain makes the most sense given this order.
9) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Keldric Faulk, Auburn
It’s become very rare to see Faulk go this high, but he has the kind of profile the NFL likes, prototype size and strength, advanced technique, decent bend and closing speed, plus he’s young and has impeccable character. He’s becoming the Tetairoa McMillan of this class, the guy that checks all the boxes, but analysts are convincing themselves he’s not good with some twisted logic.
Faulk also happens to fit the exact archetype that Steve Spagnuolo has always preferred at the position, and defensive end is the biggest need this team currently has.
10) Cincinnati Bengals - S Caleb Downs, Ohio St
I think the Bengals will take the highest rated defensive player still on the board regardless of position. They would love to get their hands on Delane or Faulk, but they’ll have to settle for Downs.
A safety may not make sense on the surface for a team that just signed Bryan Cook to a big contract, but the big nickel position has become all the rage and the Bengals currently have a huge hole at nickel.
11) Miami Dolphins - OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
Most analysts have a defensive player here for good reason, but if the order goes like this then Proctor might grade out higher than any of the remaining defenders and the Dolphins just need good football players at every position. Proctor could start at guard and move to right tackle to take over for Austin Jackson when he’s released next year.
Proctor is almost never mocked this high, typically going in the mid-20s for most analysts, but I view him the same way I did Tyler Booker last year and for the same reasons. Everyone wanted to drop them because they are slow, but the NFL loves these big, powerful, mashing run blocker types and Proctor is significantly more athletic than Booker was. A 5.22 40-time at 350+ lbs is very impressive.
12) Dallas Cowboys - DT Peter Woods, Clemson
Obviously Dallas is going to take two defenders with their two picks, but usually it’s either a corner or an edge rusher. I have them going with a defensive tackle here for a few reasons. First, all the higher rated defenders at those positions are already gone. And second, since trading away Osa Odighizuwa and Solomon Thomas the Cowboys have a big hole at defensive tackle. It’s not just a matter of getting depth either because that 3rd tackle is going to play a lot, particularly in Christian Parker’s scheme.
Why pass on Sonny Styles when they need a linebacker badly? Everyone has him rated as a guaranteed top 5-10 pick. That is certainly possible, but the media didn’t think all that much of Styles until his legendary combine performance…but the NFL and a handful of us analysts already knew he was that athletic. There are still holes in his game though, and frankly off-ball linebacker just isn’t a coveted position. It’s less valuable to many teams in the modern NFL than even RBs.
13) Philadelphia Eagles (Trade!) - OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia
There are two reasons for projecting a trade here. I don’t believe there’s any prospect the Rams absolutely have to have, and there’s nobody that quite fits the particular flavor of a Rams draft choice (ultra tough, feisty, and competitive). I also think the Eagles are likely to see the tackles flying off the board and realize they need to make an aggressive move up to secure their tackle of the future for when Lane Johnson inevitably retires.
Freeling is exactly the kind of offensive lineman the Eagles love, length, athleticism, mobility, and toughness.
14) Baltimore Ravens - OG Ola Ioane, Penn St
A very consensus pick here, but I won’t argue. This is the proper range for Ioane, and the Ravens have a huge need for interior offensive line. If not Ioane, they could also look at Woods or a wide receiver possibly.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
Still no Styles here although we’re into his range now. I just don’t think Todd Bowles wants a rookie linebacker, particularly one still learning the position, to man the green dot spot in his defense.
And speaking of the defense, their worst area last year was the secondary, not the pass rush actually, and McCoy could be quite a steal at this point if his ACL is actually healed.
16) New York Jets - WR Carnell Tate, Ohio St
And here Tate finally comes off the board and the media once again loudly proclaims how the Jets have “won” the draft by getting two of the best 5 or 6 prospects, a story we’ve heard time and time again which somehow never comes true.
I’ve talked about it quite a bit, but Tate is just not the type of receiver that is likely to get drafted as high as the media thinks. There’s no logical case for it based on the traits usually coveted by teams. Recall the 2020 draft when the media believed both CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy were going to be top 10 picks and both of them “fell” to the middle part of the first round. Why? Because neither had the size or speed NFL teams covet in the top 10. This year the same thing is likely to happen to Jordyn Tyson and Tate.
But the Jets do obviously need more receiving help and a compliment to Garrett Wilson. Tate is a good stylistic compliment and should make for a very solid #2. He’s not a true #1 receiver.
17) Detroit Lions - LB Sonny Styles, Ohio St
The “fall” finally ends for Styles, a player the media has pushed up the board solely because of his combine…but there is much more to being a good football player than just being athletic. Styles certainly offers a lot of interesting possibilities, but there are still some concerns with his game and he plays a position that just isn’t coveted by most teams…but Detroit isn’t among those. They proved that when they took Jack Campbell (another very big, very athletic linebacker) in this same part of the draft.
And speaking of Campbell, the team has been looking for a partner for him, and we know how much they love their athletes. I think this is an excellent match.
18) Minnesota Vikings - DT Caleb Banks, Florida
I’ll be honest, I’m not totally comfortable with this player to team fit, but it’s something I’m still researching. I do think defensive tackle is firmly on the table here after the Vikings cut both Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. I do not think a safety (like Dillon Thieneman) at 18 is particularly likely. Maybe they would do that after a trade down.
19) Carolina Panthers - TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
The Panthers have finally reached the point where they can simply take the best player available, so everything is on the table here. But I like the match with Sadiq, a very athletic tight end that, theoretically, adds another big bodied receiving threat to their offense at a position currently lacking that on their depth chart.
20) San Francisco 49ers (Trade!) - WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona St
The 49ers signed Mike Evans, but he’s probably got just another year, maybe two, left, and they still need a future at the position. Why not take another Arizona St receiver stylistically similar to your last one (Brandon Aiyuk), complete with the 49er special and all (constantly injured)?
Tyson “falls” to this spot due to lacking overwhelming speed and the injury issues, and the 49ers see a chance to get aggressive and leap the WR-needy Steelers by trading up with the Cowboys who are content to trade back and grab a few extra picks to continue rebuilding their defense.
21) Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Makai Lemon, USC
Despite trading for Michael Pittman, the Steelers still need WR help, and Lemon seems like the perfect fit. He’s tough, plays in the slot to compliment Metcalf and Pittman on the outside, and he might be certifiably crazy, which I’m pretty sure is the primary requirement to be a receiver drafted by the Steelers.
22) Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Cashius Howell, Texas A&M
Yes, the Chargers still need to improve the interior of the offensive line, but they can find starters at guard in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. But they also need to start planning for the day that Khalil Mack retires and they need a third edge rusher for depth right now anyways. Howell isn’t very physical and will need to work on his strength and run defense, but he’s incredibly slippery coming off the edge.
23) Los Angeles Rams (Trade) - CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson
You might think the Rams don’t need cornerbacks after bringing in both Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs, but Terrell just further solidifies their biggest weakness from last year, gives them immediate depth, and a future starter. He’s exactly their kind of player too, on the small side but aggressive and plays bigger and tougher than his size.
24) Cleveland Browns - QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
Cleveland takes yet another swing on a QB. They simply can’t pass up the value here. There is a great argument to be made that Simpson is a better prospect than Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and JJ McCarthy and yet he might go this late simply because nobody is looking for QBs this year.
I do not think for one second that Shedeur Sanders will prevent them from drafting another QB.
25) Chicago Bears - EDGE Zion Young, Missouri
The Bears are going to take the best defensive lineman or safety available almost assuredly. Dillon Thieneman is certainly a possibility if he’s still there, and I think he will be, but big, athletic edge rushers are much harder to come by than safeties, so I have the Bears going that direction. Young has prototype size, power, and good athleticism. He perfectly fits the style of defensive end that Dennis Allen craves (Cam Jordan clones).
26) Buffalo Bills - DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio St
The fans want a receiver here, but I doubt that’s the direction the Bills go especially after trading for DJ Moore. They are much more likely to attempt to fix the defense, particularly the run defense, and a big nose tackle for their new 3-4 scheme is the easiest way to do that. McDonald is big, strong, but surprisingly quick for his size and offers a little more pass rush than your typical nose tackle.
27) Dallas Cowboys (Trade) - CB Colton Hood, Tennessee
The Cowboys trade down with the 49ers and are still able to draft a defensive back with both Hood and Brandon Cisse still on the board. Hood has good athleticism and is solid in coverage.
28) Houston Texans - OT Caleb Lomu, Utah
Houston can draft their new starting center later, but even after signing several new linemen at other positions, they still need depth and a plan for the future. Lomu is very athletic and could develop into the best pass protector in this class with some time and work in the weight room to get stronger.
29) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Brandon Cisse, South Carolina
Kansas City is rebuilding their defense and already landed their big, athletic defensive lineman in the top 10. Now they can turn their attention to a depleted secondary that lost two players to the Rams. Cisse is exactly the kind of raw, rangy, athletic corner they prefer.
30) Miami Dolphins - WR David Boston, Washington
Again Miami could take literally any position here, but receiver makes a lot of sense after losing both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Boston is big, athletic, and a plus blocker, all traits the new staff appreciates coming over from Green Bay.
31) New England Patriots - OT Blake Miller, Clemson
The Patriots don’t have any glaring holes and could go a number of different directions here, but finding a future starting tackle to replace Morgan Moses could be too much value to pass up late in the 1st. Mike Vrabel will appreciate Miller’s iron man grit and toughness.
32) Seattle Seahawks - WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M
Another wide receiver to Seattle might sound crazy (and I imagine a trade back is more likely than anything), but Cooper Kupp won’t be around forever, they lost Jake Bobo to Jacksonville, Tory Horton has some injury concerns, and frankly teams are always looking for more explosive receivers on offense. Seattle, if they pick here, will take the best player available regardless of position, and that could very well be Concepcion.
